But some will be needed for enhanced GSW services.
The electrification works and internal cascade of rolling stock will release more diesel units than the franchise can use, even after some units are used to strengthen existing services.
The net change in the number of carriages within the franchise post 2019 works out to around 190 additional carriages.
I very much doubt any extra 156s will go. Needing more carriages everywhere at the moment.
Worth taking a look at the numbers from the Franchise agreement. I've taken Dec 2017, 2018 and 2025 as useful points to see the long term trend:
156
48 x 2 car Units in Dec 2017
38 x 2 car Units in Dec 2018
38 x 2 car Units in Dec 2025
Net loss of 20 coaches
158
48 x 2 car Units in Dec 2017
40 x 2 car Units in Dec 2018
40 x 2 car Units in Dec 2025
Net loss of 16 coaches
170
55 x 3 car units in Dec 2017
21 x 3 car units in Dec 2018
21 x 3 car units in Dec 2025
29 of the 170s have flexible leases that can be extended if HSTs haven't arrived.
Net loss of 102 coaches
HSTs
14 x 4 & 13 x 5 car units in Dec 2018 (121 coaches)
13 x 4 & 12 x 5 & 2 x 6 car units in Dec 2025 (124 coaches)
Net gain of 124 coaches
314
16 x 3 car units in Dec 2017
3 x 3 car units in Dec 2018
0 x 3 car units in Dec 2025
Net loss of 48 coaches
321
7 x 3 car units in Dec 2015
7 x 3 car units in Dec 2025
Net gain of 21 coaches
3xx (AT200s)
13 x 3 and 12 x 4 car units in Dec 2017
33 x 3 and 24 x 4 car units in Dec 2018
56 x 3 and 24 x 4 car units in Dec 2025
Net gain of 264 coaches
Current stock
352 DMU coaches
427 EMU coaches
plus some loco hauled coaching stock
Dec 2017
352 DMU coaches
535 EMU coaches
Net gain 108 coaches on now
Dec 2018
335 DMU / HST coaches
604 EMU coaches
Net gain 160 coaches on now
Dec 2025
338 DMU / HST coaches
664 EMU coaches
Net gain 223 coaches on now
Note: Philip Phlopp's 2019 number of 190+ carriages is consistent with this 223 as there are an optional 30 AT200 carriages that could arrive in 2023 included in my 2025 numbers.
So it is unlikely that any additional demand for DMUs whether on Borders Rail, GSW strengthening, Stranraer line etc can't be coped with within the current stock plans that see 10 x 156s go off lease in 2018.
Also worth remembering that all the current franchise DMU plans are based on no electrification post Alloa / Dunblane / Shotts line taking place. That is because only these schemes are definitely signed off for delivery in CP5.
If the rolling programme of electrification continues in CP6 (as I would fully expect) then more DMUs are likely to go off lease. The first lines to be electrified in CP6 will likely be East Kilbride, Maryhill, Barrhead and Kilmarnock. All of these are currently home to 156s so there would be an additional surplus of stock as these electrification schemes progress.
The current plan is for:
158s to cover Far North, Kyle, Borders, Fife Circle and West Highland.
170s on Fife Circle and Edinburgh - Dundee/Perth.
HSTs on Intercity routes.
156s on Glasgow suburban and SW routes.
So with Rolling Electrification by 2022 or so the 156 routes could be limited to Stranraer - Ayr - Kilmarnock and Glasgow - Carlisle via Dumfries. Stock demand on those 2 routes will be quite a lot less than 38 x 2 car units.