Scotrail - possible Abellio early termination vote & renationalisation

[Highland37]

Ah. So crime has not gone down then?

 

[380101]

Ah. So crime has not gone down then?

Probably not in reality, but we all know how much Governments like official figures etc etc to back them up. If an official survey says x y z, then it must be true no matter what the people on the ground doing the job tell them. Its the same in ScotRail, where the senior managers and directors believe the now well worn out phrase " We're building the best railway Scotland's ever had" whilst all the staff on the front line can see we are not anywhere near to doing do.

As a former cop, I aimed to be pro active in detecting crimes, but lack of resources and constantly doing other agencies work ontop of police work reduces the time available to actually get out and carry out pro active patrolling. Cities such as Inverness may have less than 10 response officers on shift at times - this basically results in a "fire fighting" style of policing ie; going from call to call as a reactive force instead of proactive policing.

 

[Highland37]

Fire fighting is the culture of this country .

 

[380101]

Fire fighting is the culture of this country .

indeed...and will continue to be the case for many, many years to come.

 

[Mingulay]

indeed...and will continue to be the case for many, many years to come.

Sadly true. I don’t think no matter who is in power we can avoid the inescapable reality that spending already exceeds a sustainable level in the medium term . The scope to raise more tax is marginal the pressure on spending will remain . Forecast is 50% of government spending in Scotland will be on national health alone in 3 years. So to spend more on one thing will need to see cuts elsewhere . There are some areas like Ret on ferries , reinstate bridge tolls will release a bit. And free prescriptions for only those on benefits would free up some. But politics may preclude that.

Every penny needs spent wisely. Bit grim really as every public service needs more finds it seems.

 

[Chrism20]

Sadly true. I don’t think no matter who is in power we can avoid the inescapable reality that spending already exceeds a sustainable level in the medium term . The scope to raise more tax is marginal the pressure on spending will remain . Forecast is 50% of government spending in Scotland will be on national health alone in 3 years. So to spend more on one thing will need to see cuts elsewhere . There are some areas like Ret on ferries , reinstate bridge tolls will release a bit. And free prescriptions for only those on benefits would free up some. But politics may preclude that.

Every penny needs spent wisely. Bit grim really as every public service needs more finds it seems.

At a rough guess the prescriptions are probably worth up to ten seats to the ruling party.

I think they hold all the Fife and Tayside seats except North East Fife and given Jackie Baillie held on by the skin of her teeth they will have aspirations of taking Dumbarton whilst the MSP for Erskine is Derek McKay. So before we even look at the Northern bridges I think you can definitely rule out tolls returning. Also with the new forth crossing the traffic at peak times is chaos as it is adding tolls in there I think would knock some people over the edge and it’s not like switching to the train is a comfortable option for commuters at the moment.

Hell knows where the cash is going to come from but I’ll be honest I think a nationalised railway would be one of the first to suffer in these circumstances.

 

[Highland37]

Sadly true. I don’t think no matter who is in power we can avoid the inescapable reality that spending already exceeds a sustainable level in the medium term . The scope to raise more tax is marginal the pressure on spending will remain . Forecast is 50% of government spending in Scotland will be on national health alone in 3 years. So to spend more on one thing will need to see cuts elsewhere . There are some areas like Ret on ferries , reinstate bridge tolls will release a bit. And free prescriptions for only those on benefits would free up some. But politics may preclude that.

Every penny needs spent wisely. Bit grim really as every public service needs more finds it seems.

One thing they could and should raise, is tax on oil. The UK has been truly awful in gaining revenue from oil and it is not taxed enough. Look at Norway, who have good railways also.

 

[Mingulay]

One thing they could and should raise, is tax on oil. The UK has been truly awful in gaining revenue from oil and it is not taxed enough. Look at Norway, who have good railways also.

I think the Scottish Government has successfully lobbied the UK govt to reduce the tax on oil to encourage investment and exploration, so the reverse of what you suggest. Thinking being with the low oil price and unprofitable reserves the industry needs support . I think Norway has also offered some tax breaks too. I suspect Norway managed its oil exploration far better over the years than the uk has ,but that ship has long since sailed

 

[Highland37]

And that is exactly what I would do in the situation where the Scottish Government gets none of that tax income.

In that situation, where it makes no difference to the income of the Government, I would expect that they would encourage investment as there is little else they can do. The opposite, where the SG would lobby for an increase in tax where it gets none of the income, would be absurd.

That's devolution for you.

 

[David M]

I think the Scottish Government has successfully lobbied the UK govt to reduce the tax on oil to encourage investment and exploration, so the reverse of what you suggest. Thinking being with the low oil price and unprofitable reserves the industry needs support . I think Norway has also offered some tax breaks too. I suspect Norway managed its oil exploration far better over the years than the uk has ,but that ship has long since sailed

What has this misinformed nonsense got to do with Abellio?

 

[kilonewton]

And that is exactly what I would do in the situation where the Scottish Government gets none of that tax income.

In that situation, where it makes no difference to the income of the Government, I would expect that they would encourage investment as there is little else they can do. The opposite, where the SG would lobby for an increase in tax where it gets none of the income, would be absurd.

That's devolution for you.

As above, what this has to do with Abellio is anyone’s guess.
But, to answer your point, Scot Gov would get an increase. Put very simply:
Increase in tax leads to increase in UK income.
(Assumption) increase in UK income leads to increase in UK spending
Increase in UK spending leads to increase in Barnett consequentials.
Increase in Barnett consequential is an increase in Scot Gov income.

 

[Highland37]

I don't think your assumptions are correct but as you say, this has nothing to do with Abellio and I was responding to Mingulay's points earlier.

 

[Mingulay]

I don't think your assumptions are correct but as you say, this has nothing to do with Abellio and I was responding to Mingulay's points earlier.

I think his assumptions are reasonable. Scotland does very well under the Barnett formula , the increasingly uncomfortable truth for some with an alternative agenda.

The point being that we have very little scope to spend money on the railways or anything really given our countries finances . I hope we all can agree that. There is no easy low hanging fruit tax wise

I do genuinely have time for the notion of a better model for rail and Scotland could lead the way, but we need to take the silly party politics by all parties out of it as we saw this week.

I also suggest that Abellio quietly drop the Scotland’s best ever railway tag line.

It sets a false prospectus for most Scottish commuters . It’s a lightening rod for your critics when things inevitably go wrong . It’s something you say when you deliver it , not claim it when you have not or are trying to. Passengers will judge the service. Not the PR spin of Scotrail.

When we are fully electric new trains new timetable and job done we can assess by reference to journey times. Over crowding. Punctuality. Cleanliness and resilience with fewer cancellations if this is Scotland’s or rather the central belts best ever railway.

 

[Railwaysceptic]

. . .The point being that we have very little scope to spend money on the railways or anything really given our countries finances . I hope we all can agree that.

There are several regular posters in this forum who do not accept that at all! They believe that spending tens of billions of pounds on our railway system can be managed quite easily!