Scotrail HSTs?

[Emblematic]

Indeed.

People are complaining that the IC225s and Class 442s won't see their full life but I can't see any non-Turbostar D(E)MUs ever living out their full design life either. Once the MML and GWML are wired it won't take long for enough of the CrossCountry routes to be wired for bi-mode operation to be the best option. Even if the thirsty express DMUs were detuned they would suffer from their lack of capacity compared to the scores of Turbostars that could do their job just as well. The 175s and 185s will suffer from being a small fleet and so when the time comes to start decommissioning post-privatisation stock they'll be the first to go, most probably even before older models of Clubman/Turbostar are sent to the scrapyard.

This document is very revealing: LINK
Lots of figures and details for those interested, but key points are:
- 3050 more electric vehicles needed by end of CP5
- 2250 to come from IEP, Thameslink and Crossrail orders, 210 other units ordered
- 600 still to be ordered
- NO DMU (or 'self powered vehicle') orders needed in CP5 or CP6
- Possibly only 100 or so new self-powered units needed in the next 30 years (and those towards the end of that period.)
The above figures were also just for growth & electrification needs - no replacements until CP6 at the earliest, when demand slackens somewhat. So anyone thinking that 442s, 313s, 315s etc. are going to be retired soon - probably not going to happen for a while, the assumption is that everything will be kept in use, life extended as necessary. That's the high level, fit everything else around it.
The outlook for LHCS and DMU is less rosy - cascades, refurbishment or retirement for the foreseeable future.

 

[The Ham]

'We' are talking about overall costs not just track access charges.


Yes they are but the HST consists of 8 coaches and the Voyager only 5!

How about normalising it so it is cost per seat per mile!
I wonder how much cheaper the HST would be compared to all the other 'InterCity' trains?

If you are doing the cost per seat that depends on the length of the train, as a 2+7 HST would be more expensive per seat than a 2+8 HST, likewise 220 would be more expensive than a 221. A HST would be very expensive compared with a 390 with 11 coaches as not only is it longer but it is diesel.

However, how would the overall costs of a HST which has had a lot of money spent making reliant for use post 2020 and may only have 10-15 years of life left compare with a Voyager which also has 10-15 years of life left but needs no major works and is off lease because ICWC has got rid of theirs and XC has started to get dual voltage EMU's (Manchester to the south coast by the start of CP6 and other routes to follow during CP6 depending on which gaps are wired up).

 

[47802]

Indeed.

People are complaining that the IC225s and Class 442s won't see their full life but I can't see any non-Turbostar D(E)MUs ever living out their full design life either. Once the MML and GWML are wired it won't take long for enough of the CrossCountry routes to be wired for bi-mode operation to be the best option. Even if the thirsty express DMUs were detuned they would suffer from their lack of capacity compared to the scores of Turbostars that could do their job just as well. The 175s and 185s will suffer from being a small fleet and so when the time comes to start decommissioning post-privatisation stock they'll be the first to go, most probably even before older models of Clubman/Turbostar are sent to the scrapyard.

I doubt that personally given all the 1st gen sprinters will approach 30 years old in the next 7 years, there would be plenty of opportunity to replace these trains with later generations of sprinter units, and that also assumes all the RailBuses are replaced by electrification and a possible optional presumably DMU build? to eliminate Northern Railbuses.

Also what's the chances of the rate of Electrification being slowed down already we are hearing of cost overruns for the GWML and a revised completion date for the North West Electrification.

Plus this business of this train must last 30 or 40 years is complete nonsense once the capittal cost has been written off over whatever period was chosen then the case for retaining or scrapping is going to be dependent on business need and the economics or retaining or replacement, obviously the reluctance to buy new Diesel units, and the electrification plan may have some bearing on it, and if a 185 gets scrapped at 20 to 25 years old so what?

Coming back to Scotrail it would seem unlikely that any new DMU would proposed so I guess the likely options would be Hybrid Train's , Limited number of HST's on the longer distance routes but GQS is a potential problem or stick with the 170's, I know which I think is most likely