Scotrail HST alternatives?

[Trainbike46]

Yes, but that's very different from "at least" 2030.

Mechanically I doubt the sets have 6 more years left in them.

When has any replacement fleet in this country entered service (and replaced it's predecessor) on time?

 

[najaB]

Mechanically I doubt the sets have 6 more years left in them.

I think you'd be more accurate to say that they might not have 6 years economical life left in them. They could be made to last another 60 years, if enough money was available. To whit, look at the USAF and the current project to re-engine their B-52 bombers. By the time they're expected to leave service, the oldest examples will be approaching 100 years old!

 

[chuff chuff]

I think you need to try more closer to 2035... that is about the current estimation for full replacement if something was ordered right now.

Funny you say that and the railway loves a rumour but someone did tell me that they had heard that transport scotland had asked about another five years.

 

[GlitterUnicorn]

I think you'd be more accurate to say that they might not have 6 years economical life left in them. They could be made to last another 60 years, if enough money was available. To whit, look at the USAF and the current project to re-engine their B-52 bombers. By the time they're expected to leave service, the oldest examples will be approaching 100 years old!

I've heard lines like this often quoted, but I don't think it's realistic.

The fact is that they're 5 years (or less) out of extensive overhaul and are not fit for purpose. Availability is through the floor, they're generally regarded as a pain by everyone who deals with them. An expensive pain.

If Transport Scotland signed such a bad contract that they're stuck with them then maybe they'll be dragged out to the bitter end. But I suspect that'll be before 2035. I just can't see them lasting another 12 years.

 

[Speed43125]

I've heard lines like this often quoted, but I don't think it's realistic.

The fact is that they're 5 years (or less) out of extensive overhaul and are not fit for purpose. Availability is through the floor, they're generally regarded as a pain by everyone who deals with them. An expensive pain.

If Transport Scotland signed such a bad contract that they're stuck with them then maybe they'll be dragged out to the bitter end. But I suspect that'll be before 2035. I just can't see them lasting another 12 years.

In fairness you'd hope at the end of the current lease they could buy the remaining operable sets for a peppercorn rate and allow a more serious running down of the fleet than currently where we're still paying for power cars that haven't run in 2 or 3 years and they scramble about trying to return them to work with mixed results.

 

[43096]

I've heard lines like this often quoted, but I don't think it's realistic.

The fact is that they're 5 years (or less) out of extensive overhaul and are not fit for purpose. Availability is through the floor, they're generally regarded as a pain by everyone who deals with them. An expensive pain.

If Transport Scotland signed such a bad contract that they're stuck with them then maybe they'll be dragged out to the bitter end. But I suspect that'll be before 2035. I just can't see them lasting another 12 years.

And there we have a big part of the problem. Attitude.

 

[GlitterUnicorn]

In fairness you'd hope at the end of the current lease they could buy the remaining operable sets for a peppercorn rate and allow a more serious running down of the fleet than currently where we're still paying for power cars that haven't run in 2 or 3 years and they scramble about trying to return them to work with mixed results.

That implies that there will be a fleet to run down in 2035...

 

[170UTD]

The only potential alternative, the 222s was discounted on cost.

Is this "confirmed?" Surley its better to pay a slightly more expensive leasing cost for a few years until new stock can be found (assuming ScotRail can get out of the HST lease) than have a fleet that's not going to work well.

 

[hexagon789]

Is this "confirmed?" Surley its better to pay a slightly more expensive leasing cost for a few years until new stock can be found (assuming ScotRail can get out of the HST lease) than have a fleet that's not going to work well.

They would be paying for both though.

 

[Speed43125]

Is this "confirmed?" Surley its better to pay a slightly more expensive leasing cost for a few years until new stock can be found (assuming ScotRail can get out of the HST lease) than have a fleet that's not going to work well.

If the 222s were also owned by Angel trains, there might be a way of organizing an early termination in return for taking on the 222s, but as you'd have to get Eversholt involved too, I think that might be a bridge too far.

 

[GlitterUnicorn]

This whole conversation hinges on the contents of a lease agreement that I don't believe any of us have ever seen.....

 

[43096]

This whole conversation hinges on the contents of a lease agreement that I don't believe any of us have ever seen.....

I have posted this before, but seeing as you are sceptical...

The Angel Trains investor report (as per Angel's website) for the period when the lease was signed can be found here: https://angeltrains.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Investor-Report-01_07_14-to-30_06_15-Final.pdf

The relevant part is:


Th relevant text is:

The following new leases were entered into on existing or improved terms following the award of new franchises;
- 30 Class 442 vehicles with Govia Thameslink Railway Limited until January 2019, 90 Class 442 vehicles until January 2016 and 48 Class 317/3 vehicles until December 2019 (includes vehicles currently with Southern)
- 112 Class 357/2 vehicles with National Express Essex Thameside for 15 years until November 2029
- 271 vehicles have been leased with Abellio Scotrail:
- 76 x Class 156 leased from April 2015 to March 2025
- 20 x Class 156, 16 Class158 and 48 Class 314 leased from April 2015 to Dec 2018
- 175 x HST will be transferred from First Great Western and leased to Scotrail from September 2017 to March 2025, with a Section 54 until 2030

 

[takno]

This whole conversation hinges on the contents of a lease agreement that I don't believe any of us have ever seen.....

Well, that and on the other side somebody's passionate but unsourced belief that the machines are fundamentally broken and about to fall to pieces on the track they stand on.

 

[GlitterUnicorn]

Well, that and on the other side somebody's passionate but unsourced belief that the machines are fundamentally broken and about to fall to pieces on the track they stand on.

Would have thought it was painfully obvious to everyone even tangentially involved that they're on their last legs? I mean come on....

Half this thread is people with links to the programme discussing how dire the HST situation is at Scotrail. The other half is enthusiasts sticking their fingers in their ears and acting as if nothing's wrong with their favourite trains, in spite of overwhelming evidence....

 

[najaB]

The other half is enthusiasts sticking their fingers in their ears and acting as if nothing's wrong with their favourite trains, in spite of overwhelming evidence....

Since I'm not completely familiar with the situation, would you be kind enough to provide a link to some of that evidence?

 

[takno]

Would have thought it was painfully obvious to everyone even tangentially involved that they're on their last legs? I mean come on....

Half this thread is people with links to the programme discussing how dire the HST situation is at Scotrail. The other half is enthusiasts sticking their fingers in their ears and acting as if nothing's wrong with their favourite trains, in spite of overwhelming evidence....

That's clearly the way you're interpreting it. I'm seeing a company which has come out of a challenging overhaul which was done on the cheap, finally made some of the changes which should have been made all along, and is starting to make progressing on training and retaining engineering talent. I'm not seeing the units do any worse than quite a lot of new stock in terms of miles per failure, or a company which would necessarily be doing any better with any intercity grade stock. It's not at all clear that switching horses in the middle of the race is a winning strategy here.

As to the enthusiast bit, I'm mildly interested at best, and in terms of any personal attachment to HSTs I couldn't give a toss whether they replace them tomorrow. As a general supporter of public transport I want there to be a reasonable quality of service to Inverness/Aberdeen, and as consumer of Scottish public services generally I'd like to see that done at a reasonable price so that there's less of a black hole in the budget.

What I don't see is any strong indication that replacing the HSTs is a cheaper alternative, likely to provide a better service, or in any way inevitable prior to 2030.

 

[Gonzalez]

I speculate that the HSTs will go in around 2-3 years time, by then the 222s would become available.

The HSTs were somewhat controversial in Scotrail for their unreliable ATPs and the prohibitively high costs of ordering them back in 2018/2019 despite being decades old.

Though it's obvious on why Scotrail would take them as they were looking for Intercity style trains to run long distance In the region and HSTs were the only ones of the kind available.

 

[RobShipway]

I speculate that the HSTs will go in around 2-3 years time, by then the 222s would become available.

The HSTs were somewhat controversial in Scotrail for their unreliable ATPs and the prohibitively high costs of ordering them back in 2018/2019 despite being decades old.

Though it's obvious on why Scotrail would take them as they were looking for Intercity style trains to run long distance In the region and HSTs were the only ones of the kind available.

Can you explain why Scotrail would take on the class 222 units to replace the HSTs, when long term it maybe better to take on new BEMU units based on either Hitachi AT300, CAF Civity or Alstom Aventra?

 

[snowball]

Can you explain why Scotrail would take on the class 222 units to replace the HSTs, when long term it maybe better to take on new BEMU units based on either Hitachi AT300, CAF Civity or Alstom Aventra?

I have no idea whether they will take on 222s, but one very obvious possible answer to your question might be that not enough electrification is now likely to be in place on the relevant timescale to allow use of BEMUs, except in Fife.

 

[najaB]

I have no idea whether they will take on 222s, but one very obvious possible answer to your question might be that not enough electrification is now likely to be in place on the relevant timescale to allow use of BEMUs, except in Fife.

The answer to that problem is Stadler FLIRTs with generator carriages.

 

[HSTEd]

Is there any 100mph+ running on these routes?
What advantage would a 222 have over a FLIRT or similar?

 

[hexagon789]

Is there any 100mph+ running on these routes?
What advantage would a 222 have over a FLIRT or similar?

None currently, the only 100+ sections in Scotland are only on the ECML and WCML. ScotRail also only has a safety for 100mph presently.

222s would accelerate slower, also very inefficient internal use of space so lower capacity; Voyagers are slightly worse still mind you.

 

[gingertom]

None currently, the only 100+ sections in Scotland are only on the ECML and WCML. ScotRail also only has a safety for 100mph presently.

222s would accelerate slower, also very inefficient internal use of space so lower capacity; Voyagers are slightly worse still mind you.

true, but at least the 222s are going to be available soon and will last until the wires eventually go up. It will take some time to do a procurement for any bi/tri mode stock before they can be in service, by which time the HSTs will be even more knackered than they are now, if they even last that long.

 

[John Bishop]

I speculate that the HSTs will go in around 2-3 years time, by then the 222s would become available.

The HSTs were somewhat controversial in Scotrail for their unreliable ATPs and the prohibitively high costs of ordering them back in 2018/2019 despite being decades old.

Though it's obvious on why Scotrail would take them as they were looking for Intercity style trains to run long distance In the region and HSTs were the only ones of the kind available.

I agree. As someone who works on them on an almost daily basis, they are knackered! Any talk of the, lasting until 2035 is just fantasy. With set failures on a daily basis requiring 2 car 158s to pick up the pieces on Intercity routes resulting in passengers left behind is just not a situation which will be tolerated moving forward. I understand there a fitters on platforms in Inverness to see out every HST departure due to the unreliability of them.

It’s got nothing to do with attitude of the staff, the sets are knackered and clearly not fit for purpose.

 

[43096]

It’s got nothing to do with attitude of the staff

You would say that, of course...

 

[Killingworth]

I agree. As someone who works on them on an almost daily basis, they are knackered! Any talk of the, lasting until 2035 is just fantasy. With set failures on a daily basis requiring 2 car 158s to pick up the pieces on Intercity routes resulting in passengers left behind is just not a situation which will be tolerated moving forward. I understand there a fitters on platforms in Inverness to see out every HST departure due to the unreliability of them.

It’s got nothing to do with attitude of the staff, the sets are knackered and clearly not fit for purpose.

Are GWR sets similarly knackered?

 

[John Bishop]

Are GWR sets similarly knackered?

Not sure to be honest.

 

[RobShipway]

I have no idea whether they will take on 222s, but one very obvious possible answer to your question might be that not enough electrification is now likely to be in place on the relevant timescale to allow use of BEMUs, except in Fife.

Maybe me, but there seems to be much more electrification going on in Scotland than there does in the rest of the UK.

The answer to that problem is Stadler FLIRTs with generator carriages.

true, but at least the 222s are going to be available soon and will last until the wires eventually go up. It will take some time to do a procurement for any bi/tri mode stock before they can be in service, by which time the HSTs will be even more knackered than they are now, if they even last that long.

Any new bi/tri mode would be based on an existing design of train, which would mean that there is not so much in the way of testing that would be required of new stock, other than testing to make sure all systems work and that all systems work in the area that the units are to be used. Other than that the only other time consuming event would be training of staff but in driving the units etc... and with doing maintenance.

 

[John Bishop]

You would say that, of course...

Why would I? Do you work for Scotrail? Do you have first hand knowledge of the situation?

A pretty meaningless statement to make I would suggest!

 

[snookertam]

And there we have a big part of the problem. Attitude.

Im not sure I understand this. It’s not the attitude towards these trains which results in them being utterly unreliable and ridiculously frequent failures, it’s the fact they’re too old and completely unfit for purpose.