Scotland votes no to Independence

[ExRes]

Some bluff when you've knocked out the future Labour and Lib Dem vote courtesy of a few Scotsmen

 

[yorksrob]

Some bluff when you've knocked out the future Labour and Lib Dem vote courtesy of a few Scotsmen

Personally I think that if Scotland does go, the Conservative and Unionist party should recognise that it has failed in its core aim and dissolve itself once and for all.

We can dream

 

[21C101]

Personally I think that if Scotland does go, the Conservative and Liberal Unionist party should recognise that it has failed in its core aim and dissolve itself once and for all.

We can dream

Fixed that for you. Current tory party is a merge of the Conservative Party and Liberal Unionist Party which split from the Liberals in 1886 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Unionist_Party

Its also a merge with the National Liberal Party (1930s breakaway that finally merged with Tories in 1968. Both Michael Heseltine and John Nott originally stood as National Liberals) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Liberal_Party_(UK,_1931))

Liberal Unionists and National Liberals actually propped up most of the tory governments of the 20th Century (eg in 1951 when tories beat labour by 295 to 321 with 6 "proper" liberals, 19 of the tory seats were actually national liberals. Had thewy sided with Labour, Labour would have retained power.

The 1951 National Liberal Seats include Angus North and South, Dumfries, Fife East, Renfrewshire West & Ross and Cromarty (now Charles Kennedy's seat)

 

[yorksrob]

Fixed that for you. Current tory party is a merge of the Conservative Party and Liberal Unionist Party which split from the Liberals in 1886 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Unionist_Party

Its also a merge with the National Liberal Party (1930s breakaway that finally merged with Tories in 1968. Both Michael Heseltine and John Nott originally stood as National Liberals) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Liberal_Party_(UK,_1931))

Liberal Unionists and National Liberals actually propped up most of the tory governments of the 20th Century (eg in 1951 when tories beat labour by 295 to 321 ywith 6 "proper" liberals, 19 of the tory seats were actually national liberals. Had thewy sided with Lambour, Labour would have retained power.

The 1951 National Liberal Seats include Angus North and South, Dumfries, Fife East, Renfrewshire West & Ross and Cromarty (now Charles Kennedy's seat)

Correction noted.

 

[68000]

A 100 Labour MPs ordered to Scotland on Thursday to placate the natives.

Welcome party for the 100 MP's

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DiMXuEmqAHA
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Surely "Devo Max" was mooted very early, while the possibility of a referendum was being discussed. Of course, the Yes campaign refused to allow it to be a part of the referendum package, as it would presumably have weakened their "case".

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukn...question-in-referendum-says-Nigel-Farage.html

 

[stanley T]

Polls are usually +/- 3% so it could be anything; YouGov sometimes use +/- 2%

http://yougov.co.uk/news/2011/11/21/understanding-margin-error/

Turnout, how the don't knows break - and whether people have been lying to the posters. UK polls now make an allowance for "hidden Tories" because people don't want to admit that they are voting for the "nasty" party. Might be the same for the (unpatriotic) No vote

If Scotland does vote no and gets Devo Max, then the pressure to devolve more power within England from our overcentralised Londoncentric system is strong- but what to? English regions don't have strong identities for the most part, and the counties are too small.

Short term, the economic risks of voting Yes are enormous, financial sector leaves, oil running out, no UK subsidy, reapply to EU and get worse terms etc. Longer term Scotland might benefit from the re-emergence of a right wing party, the only country where the Nats are to the left of the socialists. But that requires an economic trainwreck first, quite likely to happen.

 

[St Rollox]

If Scotland votes YES do you think Westminster will still hold a referendum on leaving the EU?

 

[Jonny]

If Scotland votes YES do you think Westminster will still hold a referendum on leaving the EU?

There's a higher chance of another YES if they do (as in rUK to leave the EU).

 

[21C101]

more reports of intimidation. I do wonder if the recent yes surge is down to "shy" no voters not wanting to risk Zanunats bothering them

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...h-yes-camp-physical-verbal-abuse-independence

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ng-Salmond-s-dream-Scottish-independence.html

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-warns-business-chief-fresh-blow-Salmond.html

 

[68000]

If Scotland does vote no and gets Devo Max

The 'extra powers' do not even equate to 'Devo Max' and have zero standing

Hague: giving Scotland more powers if it votes No is not Government policy

'Moronic' David Cameron should have offered 'Devo max' question in referendum, says Nigel Farage

UK To Get VETO On Gordon Brown’s Devo Proposals

 

[ExRes]

Another clear view of how Salmond and his yes men behave, all this fuss about business leaders actually giving out the truth on what will really happen to the economy of an independent Scotland, how dare they speak out and tell the electorate ......

 

[St Rollox]

I'd guess all the scare stories seen in Scotland would be visited against those who support the idea of the UK leaving the EU.

 

[ExRes]

I'd guess all the scare stories seen in Scotland would be visited against those who support the idea of the UK leaving the EU.

There's a lot of difference between scare stories and facts, although it's a nice idea leaving the EU any realist would admit that our economy is far to intricately tied to Europe to withdraw and survive without severe problems, at least the UK actually has an infrastructure to fall back on where Scotland does not

 

[68000]

Glasgow today


adult image

 

[Howardh]

If it's YES, and things start to go wrong, it will end up in mass migration - the better off Scots taking their money with them, depositing money in English banks, or even civil war. Think poll tax and quadruple it.

If I voted NO and things went badly wrong, taxes rising, services failling, inflation taking off etc, I'd do a little bit more than send a letter to the Daily Mail.

 

[21C101]

Latest opinion poll - No 8 points clear 54-46

Including undecideds its 41-47 No

 

[table38]

Interesting listening to More or Less on Radio 4 yesterday. Whilst the pollsters refuse to reveal the sample size, it is primarily internet voting (rather than telephone or face to face). They do take a lot of effort to keep their sample representative (otherwise it's just a poll of people who use the internet!)

However normally they can adjust for the "don't know" (or "not telling you!") vote by using results from previous elections. But because they don't have an old Scottish Independence vote to "normalise" the polls against, there may be an unexpected result.

Maybe (for the same reasons) it's going to be like the Manchester Congestion Charging vote, which we were told was "50:50" and "too close to call" and ended up 79:21 against!

 

[Abpj17]

Interesting listening to More or Less on Radio 4 yesterday. Whilst the pollsters refuse to reveal the sample size, it is primarily internet voting (rather than telephone or face to face). They do take a lot of effort to keep their sample representative (otherwise it's just a poll of people who use the internet!)

However normally they can adjust for the "don't know" (or "not telling you!") vote by using results from previous elections. But because they don't have an old Scottish Independence vote to "normalise" the polls against, there may be an unexpected result.

Maybe (for the same reasons) it's going to be like the Manchester Congestion Charging vote, which we were told was "50:50" and "too close to call" and ended up 79:21 against!

YouGov is usually 2% at the headline level. The detailed tables they publish include the poll size (from which the margin of error is clear) - any other tweaks is a bit harder

 

[St Rollox]

If it's YES, and things start to go wrong, it will end up in mass migration - the better off Scots taking their money with them, depositing money in English banks, or even civil war. Think poll tax and quadruple it.

If I voted NO and things went badly wrong, taxes rising, services failling, inflation taking off etc, I'd do a little bit more than send a letter to the Daily Mail.

Would be interesting if it was a YES vote followed by a Labour victory next May in what's left of the UK.

 

[yorksrob]

I'd guess all the scare stories seen in Scotland would be visited against those who support the idea of the UK leaving the EU.

Thats a fair point. Having watched this referendum progress, I'm certainly less inclined to put the rest of the UK through one on Europe. Particularly if it unleashes forces similar to the yes mob which has tarnished the whole process.

 

[DelayRepay]

Thats a fair point. Having watched this referendum progress, I'm certainly less inclined to put the rest of the UK through one on Europe. Particularly if it unleashes forces similar to the yes mob which has tarnished the whole process.

Indeed; it is a shame that some of the campaign has seemed to be about who can shout loudest, rather than what's right for Scotland.

I think an EU campaign would be similar. The very real discussions about the economy, employment and trade would be drowned out by people shouting about powerful hoovers and bendy bananas.
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Would be interesting if it was a YES vote followed by a Labour victory next May in what's left of the UK.

What will be really interesting if is Scotland swings back to Labour, in the General Election and also in the Holyrood elections in 2016. If there is a YES vote, I guess how successful break away negotiations are will decide who gets to form the next government in Scotland.

 

[21C101]

What will be really interesting if is Scotland swings back to Labour, in the General Election and also in the Holyrood elections in 2016. If there is a YES vote, I guess how successful break away negotiations are will decide who gets to form the next government in Scotland.

Especially if the Labour manifesto promises to call it off in favour of some sort of Devo max.

 

[DelayRepay]

Especially if the Labour manifesto promises to call it off in favour of some sort of Devo max.

I don't think they will, a Yes vote will lead to an independent Scotland. But it will be interesting if Lamont, Brown and Darling end up negotiating with Balls to agree the settlement.

 

[sprinterguy]

This might just be a photoshop job (The stickers weren't on there on Wednesday)...but if it's real, it really is very well done. Looks like definite support for the "No" campaign to me!

 

[TUC]

Indeed; it is a shame that some of the campaign has seemed to be about who can shout loudest, rather than what's right for Scotland.

To be honest I don't think it has been about who can should loudest. Who has been able to put across their case more charismatically and positively has been an influence, although the No campaign have only themselves to blame in that regard.
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I don't think they will, a Yes vote will lead to an independent Scotland. But it will be interesting if Lamont, Brown and Darling end up negotiating with Balls to agree the settlement.

It will also make for interesting minutes of the meetings if they have to refer to Darling Brown Balls.

 

[DelayRepay]

To be honest I don't think it has been about who can should loudest. Who has been able to put across their case more charismatically and positively has been an influence, although the No campaign have only themselves to blame in that regard.

I'm watching from afar here - my Scottish friends tell me the news coverage has been biased in favor of the Better Together campaign. My friends are all Yes voters though so maybe it's them who are biased.

Whatever happens, things won't be the same again.

I suspect that whatever happens, one of Cameron and Salmond will be out of a job by Christmas.

 

[Giugiaro]

Catalonia has her eyes on Scotland:
http://www.euronews.com/2014/09/12/catalonia-to-scotland-for-your-ayes-only/

 

[Abpj17]

I'm watching from afar here - my Scottish friends tell me the news coverage has been biased in favor of the Better Together campaign. My friends are all Yes voters though so maybe it's them who are biased.

Whatever happens, things won't be the same again.

I suspect that whatever happens, one of Cameron and Salmond will be out of a job by Christmas.

Nah, with an election next May and Boris due to be elected, Cameron will hang on until closer to the election.

 

[Hornet]

Catalonia has her eyes on Scotland:
http://www.euronews.com/2014/09/12/catalonia-to-scotland-for-your-ayes-only/

Which is why Spain will not endorse an application for Scotland to join the EU, if Scotland vote for Independence and go down the EU route.

 

[NotATrainspott]

Which is why Spain will not endorse an application for Scotland to join the EU, if Scotland vote for Independence and go down the EU route.

And thus Spain logically should have vetoed any attempt by Montenegro to do anything as an independent state, including the starting of accession negotiations with the European Union. It didn't.

Catalonia's referendum will never be accepted by the Spanish constitutional court, and thus it will never be recognised as legitimate by the European Union. If there is a Yes vote on Thursday, the UK Government is bound to accept the outcome and accept Scotland as an independent state once independence is finally sorted out. The rUK cannot legitimately delay independence any longer than is absolutely required as the alternative is an affront to the spirit of British democracy.