Philip Phlopp said:
They're almost 30 years old, and any significant sums spent on re-engineering the stock will need them to remain in service through 40 years and possibly toward 50 years - that's the sort of number crunching we're seeing with ScotRail and their refurbished HST sets.
There's already a pretty significant concern at ScotRail that pushing their refurbished HST sets to remain in service through to 2039 and completion of electrification to Inverness is quite possibly asking too much, and that something will need to be done, maybe as early as 2029 when it's intended that electrification will reach Dundee and probably by 2034 when it's intended that electrification reaches Aberdeen.
These units, power cars, coaches, none of them can remain in service indefinitely - bogies will begin to crack (we've been there once with HST already) and structural components will start to fail, electrical and mechanical parts will begin to fail and repairing or replacing them without redesign will be harder, we will see a drop in reliability and lots of hard work needed by depots just to maintain what will be pretty poor casualty figures.
It's easy to say doing something with Class 442 units might save a bit of money, but if it costs you a huge amount of TDA payments to other TOCs, a fortune in delay repay payments to your passengers and it needs your engineering people in on overtime 7 days a week just to ensure you're not short forming sets day in, day out and breaching franchise obligations, you'll be spending more every month than if you had just gone to a ROSCO and ordered up new stock, accepting a hefty lease payment.
http://www.railforums.co.uk/showpost.php?p=2401172&postcount=96
I've just read this post on the "Is the end is nigh for class 442*" thread and it made me remember that in this
Route Study Appendices document, the suggested dates for electrification of the Fife Circle and other routes appears to be significantly later than I think most people had anticipated. Onwards from page 137 it lists:
CP6 (2019-24)
6.4 - Stirling to Perth
Clear Moncrieffe Tunnel for electrification and freight gauge (slabtrack solution + W12 gauge clearance).
Dunblane to Perth electrification.
6.5 - Perth to Dundee
Perth to Dundee electrification.
CP7 (2024-29)
5.1 - Haymarket West to Dunfermline Town
Undertake electrification design for the Fife Line in the vicinity of Edinburgh Airport.
5.2 - Inverkeithing to Dundee (via Dalgety Bay)
Clear Dock Street Tunnel for electrification (track lower - noting sea level issues + drainage).
CP8 (2029-34)
5.1 - Haymarket West to Dunfermline Town
Achieve electrification clearances across the Forth Bridge.
Clear North Queensferry Tunnel for electrification.
Clear Inverkeithing tunnels for electrification.
5.4 - Dundee to Montrose
Dundee to Aberdeen Electrification.
CP9 (2034-39)
5.2 - Inverkeithing to Dundee (via Dalgety Bay)
Clear Kinghorn Tunnel for electrification (potential slabtrack).
CP10 (2039-44)
5.2 - Inverkeithing to Dundee (via Dalgety Bay)
Electrification of Fife routes - Haymarket West Junction to Dundee (see Option 5.3.3 re. Ladybank to Hilton Junction route).
5.3 - Ladybank to Hilton
Electrification of Hilton-Ladybank.
6.6 - Perth to Dingwall
Perth to Inverness electrification.
What's intriguing/concerning me the most is that it appears that the priorities for what routes to electrify are all wrong. Doing all of Glasgow to Dundee in CP6 and then waiting almost twenty years to fill in Fife seems to be completely off-the-wall. Previous discussions on this forum suggested that Dunblane to Perth would be one of the later wiring jobs since it alone wouldn't allow any extra services to be converted.
Now, in the same set of tables (unfortunately, the PDF can't be searched, so you would have to look by hand) it doesn't suggest that the works involved would be that complicated. The three clearance works in CP8 are estimated to cost less than £50m each, which doesn't really indicate difficulty to me.
Bizarrely, the option of creating a Dunfermline Bypass along the M90 is estimated to cost less than £50m as well according to the table. I just can't see that being realistic when the works at Stafford, which seem to involve a comparable amount of work, cost £250m or so. If that is an error, then what about the rest of the document?