Russia invades Ukraine

[dgl]

What we're currently seeing is Russia's last stand at convincing Trump to back their plans. With the Epstein files nailed on for release, they will fear Trump is done for and hope they can get a favourable deal before those files are released.

Russia thought that only they had enough dirt on Trump to keep him sweet, the Epstein files through a massive spanner in their works.

 

[brad465]

Russia thought that only they had enough dirt on Trump to keep him sweet, the Epstein files through a massive spanner in their works.

I reckon Russia could still release unrelated material if they felt beneficial, but yes they may not be sure they still have the stranglehold they thought they had.

 

[Annetts key]

IMHO it doesn't matter what Russia has on Trump, Ukraine with the backing of those who currently financially and militarily back it (U.K., most E.U. countries, some other European countries, Canada, Australia and Japan), it will almost certainly choose to not concede to the so called Trump peace plan if the details are as per the reports in the media.

It's not widely reported in most traditional media, but Russia is continuing to suffer huge losses and the situation with the Russia economy continues to get worse every day. Even some of the Russian newspapers are mentioning the bad economic news according to Steve Rosenberg's YouTube channel.

So the question is, how long can Russia continue to push as the number of volunteer soldiers continue to fall and as the money situation gets worse as income from oil products falls? Especially as their Sovereign Wealth fund is nearly exhausted.

 

[Railwaycat]

It's not widely reported in most traditional media, but Russia is continuing to suffer huge losses and the situation with the Russia economy continues to get worse every day. Even some of the Russian newspapers are mentioning the bad economic news according to Steve Rosenberg's YouTube channel.

So the question is, how long can Russia continue to push as the number of volunteer soldiers continue to fall and as the money situation gets worse as income from oil products falls? Especially as their Sovereign Wealth fund is nearly exhausted.

I saw somewhere (can't remember where) yesterday that Belarus had released two jailed Catholic priests and was seeking to improve relations with the west, interesting move if true.
Edit - just read they've pardoned 31 Ukrainians according to a reuters news report that flashed up on MSN.

 

[Megafuss]

The plan is a joke, but even if some of the things are bitter pills to swallow to reach peace, I don't see how any country could agree to losing land it hasn't lost and a forced reduction of its military. What does the second point achieve?

And the stuff about the US being a mediator between NATO and Russia. The alliance may as well be dead!

 

[brad465]

The plan is a joke, but even if some of the things are bitter pills to swallow to reach peace, I don't see how any country could agree to losing land it hasn't lost and a forced reduction of its military. What does the second point achieve?

And the stuff about the US being a mediator between NATO and Russia. The alliance may as well be dead!

Yes Ukraine might as well keep fighting even without US support, as this would be better than a situation where Russia could just walk through most of Ukraine with no resistance.

The US abandoning might also force the EU and UK to look at liquidating frozen Russian assets more quickly, as this is the only way Ukraine could keep going in such a situation.

 

[Annetts key]

I saw somewhere yesterday that Belarus had released two jailed Catholic priests and was seeking to improve relations with the west, interesting move if true.
Edit - just read they've pardoned 31 Ukrainians.

Aleksandr Lukashenko trying to make nice because he sees that Russia won't be able to help Belarus as the Russian economy gets worse? Or because he fears the collapse of Putin's government?

 

[generalnerd]

I don’t understand how Donald Trump is going to come out well from this, because he may be daft, but he and everyone can clearly see that Russia wants the land and an army reduction so that in a few years time Russia gets a free shot

 

[Megafuss]

I don’t understand how Donald Trump is going to come out well from this, because he may be daft, but he and everyone can clearly see that Russia wants the land and an army reduction so that in a few years time Russia gets a free shot

It will be his equivalent of Biden and Afghanistan, which itself had roots in the Trump 1 admin.

 

[brad465]

I don’t understand how Donald Trump is going to come out well from this, because he may be daft, but he and everyone can clearly see that Russia wants the land and an army reduction so that in a few years time Russia gets a free shot

Maybe not even a few years; if Ukraine have disarmed under coercion and Russia's military industrial complex remains at current production rate, Russia might renege in only a year. Putin may also think he's got everything he needs out of Trump by this point, so decides he can just go carte blanche without worrying what he thinks.

 

[Railwaycat]

Aleksandr Lukashenko trying to make nice because he sees that Russia won't be able to help Belarus as the Russian economy gets worse? Or because he fears the collapse of Putin's government?

With luck, it's both, and let's hope he's speaking as an 'insider'.

 

[generalnerd]

Maybe not even a few years; if Ukraine have disarmed under coercion and Russia's military industrial complex remains at current production rate, Russia might renege in only a year. Putin may also think he's got everything he needs out of Trump by this point, so decides he can just go carte blanche without worrying what he thinks.

No I think they would let it rest so when they do invade it’s not their buddy trump in charge of the country who would be most scrutinised.

Of course, Russia could be doing this now as a last ditch attempt as they know trump may be out of the White House in the very near future

 

[martin butler]

Trouble is though; can Europe afford for Ukraine to lose? they can't, As I see it, the European members of Nato already have decided that the only way to end the war is through aiding Ukraine so that Russia can't afford to carry on, either through sheer costs, or public reaction, or both, and Russia ends up so damaged that they can't become a threat again, Ukraine will of course have to become a Full Nato member,

Once Trumps administration is gone, hopefully, more saner heads will decide Americans future is better served by backing democratic countries rather than dictatorships.

 

[najaB]

Once Trumps administration is gone, hopefully, more saner heads will decide Americans future is better served by backing democratic countries rather than dictatorships.

Hopefully. Though the fear is that if he's ousted by the 25th Amendment route rather than at the ballot box, there are significantly more competent figures waiting in the shadows to take over.

 

[brad465]

Sounds like someone else with an opposing view to Putin has whispered into Trump's ear:

Trump says US plan to end Ukraine war not 'final offer' for Kyiv

US President Donald Trump says the plan is not his "final offer" for Kyiv, and security officials are set to meet in Geneva on Sunday.

bbc.co.uk

President Donald Trump has said a US plan to end the Russia-Ukraine war is not his "final offer" for Kyiv, after Ukrainian allies voiced concerns over proposals.
Earlier on Saturday, leaders from Europe, Canada and Japan said the plan had elements "essential for a just and lasting peace", but would "require additional work", citing concerns over border changes and caps on Ukraine's army.
On Sunday, security officials from Britain, France, Germany, the US and Ukraine will meet in Geneva, Switzerland.
President Volodymyr Zelensky earlier warned Ukraine faced "one of the most difficult moments in our history" over US pressure to accept the plan seen as favourable to Moscow.
Trump has given Ukraine until 27 November to accept the 28-point plan, while Russia's President Vladimir Putin said it could be the "basis" for a settlement.
When asked on Saturday whether the current draft plan was his final offer for Ukraine, Trump told reporters at the White House: "No, not my final offer."
"One way or another we have to get it [the war] ended, so we're working on it," he added.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and special envoy Steve Witkoff will be among those taking part in talks in Geneva on Sunday. National Security Adviser Jonathan Powell will attend on the UK's behalf.
Saturday's joint statement at the G20 summit in South Africa was signed by the leaders of Canada, Finland, France, Ireland, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Spain, the UK, Germany and Norway. Two top EU officials were also among the signatories.
The statement said: "We believe therefore that the draft is a basis which will require additional work. We are ready to engage in order to ensure that a future peace is sustainable. We are clear on the principle that borders must not be changed by force.
"We are also concerned by the proposed limitations on Ukraine's armed forces, which would leave Ukraine vulnerable to future attack."
It added: "The implementation of elements relating to the European Union and relating to Nato would need the consent of EU and Nato members respectively".
UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, who is at the G20 summit in Johannesburg, spoke to Zelensky on the phone on Saturday, followed by a call with Trump.
On the Trump call, a Downing Street spokesman said Sir Keir "relayed the discussions that have been taking place between Coalition of the Willing partners [Ukraine's allies] in attendance at the G20 summit today".
They added: "The leaders agreed their teams would work together on the 28-point US peace proposal in Geneva tomorrow. They agreed to speak again tomorrow."
Sir Keir earlier said he was concerned about proposed caps on Ukraine's military in the US plan, saying "it's fundamental that Ukraine has to be able to defend itself if there's a ceasefire".
The widely leaked US peace plan proposes Ukrainian troops withdraw from the part of the eastern Donetsk region that they currently control, and de facto Russian control of Donetsk, as well as the neighbouring Luhansk region and the southern Crimea peninsula annexed by Russia in 2014.
The plan also includes freezing the borders of Ukraine's southern Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions along the current battle lines. Both regions are partially occupied by Russia.
The US draft would also limit Ukraine's military to 600,000 personnel, with European fighter jets stationed in neighbouring Poland.
Kyiv would receive "reliable security guarantees", the plan says, although no details have been given. The document says "it is expected" that Russia will not invade its neighbours and Nato will not expand further.
The plan also suggests Russia will be "reintegrated into the global economy", through the lifting of sanctions and by inviting Russia to rejoin the G7 group of the world's most powerful countries - making it the G8 again.

 

[martin butler]

Ukraine, and Europe should now tell Russian Puppet Trump to get lost, and for good measure threaten Him with the removal of all US bases in UK,and Europe, if he continues to back Putin, and come up with solid plans to kick the US out of NATO,

Europe can and should be able to arm with European made systems, and treat the USA as a hostile nation, cancel all F35 orders, and look at European alternatives, such as the Gripen, Eurofighter, and all western European nations should get behind a new 5th gen fighter design, that matches the American offering, but without the kill switches.

 

[ainsworth74]

Hopefully. Though the fear is that if he's ousted by the 25th Amendment route rather than at the ballot box, there are significantly more competent figures waiting in the shadows to take over.

And I think from a Ukraine perspective it looks to me that it's like that its JD Vance (and his backers) who are really in the anti-Ukraine camp so we'd replace someone who tends to just go with whatever they were last told to someone who is likely to stick a position for longer than one conversation and is likely to be anti-Ukraine.

 

[martin butler]

And I think from a Ukraine perspective it looks to me that it's like that its JD Vance (and his backers) who are really in the anti-Ukraine camp so we'd replace someone who tends to just go with whatever they were last told to someone who is likely to stick a position for longer than one conversation and is likely to be anti-Ukraine.

Wouldn't it be ironic, If the Heritage foundation, as well as other right-wing groups in the US, were found out to have been Russian funded and were really nothing more than Russian government agents seeking to undermine the US standing in the world

 

[ainsworth74]

Wouldn't it be ironic, If the Heritage foundation, as well as other right-wing groups in the US, were found out to have been Russian funded and were really nothing more than Russian government agents seeking to undermine the US standing in the world

Found out? Surely that's just highly probable at this point, more likely than not in fact!

 

[Sorcerer]

Ukraine, and Europe should now tell Russian Puppet Trump to get lost, and for good measure threaten Him with the removal of all US bases in UK,and Europe, if he continues to back Putin, and come up with solid plans to kick the US out of NATO,

How would you propose to kick the US out of NATO, especially when so much of the alliance is built upon it? The only one who will objectively benefit from such expulsion is Russia itself because the alliance will lose a heavy chunk of spending and military power, and ironically it would also align with some of the MAGA isolationists. But ultimately there is no built-in mechanism to kick out a member state anyway.

Europe can and should be able to arm with European made systems, and treat the USA as a hostile nation, cancel all F35 orders, and look at European alternatives, such as the Gripen, Eurofighter, and all western European nations should get behind a new 5th gen fighter design, that matches the American offering, but without the kill switches.

I don't disagree with the principle of building our own defence industry, but the "kill switch" is a myth. In theory the US could lock another nation out of software updates which the F35 relies on upon and thereby limit it's capabilities in the long term, but that's not the same as a kill switch. How likely they would actually lock anyone out of these software updates long-term is anyone's guess.

I understand people's frustrations with the current administration's flip-flopping, but Trump isn't so much a Russian puppet as he is just an easily manipulated old fool losing his marbles. Once he's out of office the MAGA movement, and by extension the pro-Russian wing of the Republican Party, will likely descend into irrelevancy, at which point we can hope for normal relations once more.

 

[EYFanatic]

Europe can and should be able to arm with European made systems, and treat the USA as a hostile nation, cancel all F35 orders, and look at European alternatives, such as the Gripen, Eurofighter, and all western European nations should get behind a new 5th gen fighter design, that matches the American offering, but without the kill switches.

Not so much a kill switch, but the US government - and the USAF especially - have insisted that any and all test program campaigns happen in the continental US and that only US citizens make software upgrades (apart from their bestest bosom buddy Israel). I seem to recall that when the first two arrived in the UK just before the RAF 100 celebrations in 2018, the RAF ground crews discovered both jets had been sending un-commanded position reports through a data network they were "plugged in" into which then resulted in the erks bringing out a laptop and removing that ability

 

[uglymonkey]

Problem is if you remove the F35's our 2 aircraft carriers are a waste of space and revert to helicopters, as the F35's are the only fixed wing that can fly off them.

 

[najaB]

Problem is if you remove the F35's our 2 aircraft carriers are a waste of space and revert to helicopters, as the F35's are the only fixed wing that can fly off them.

I'm about 80% sure that this was considered in the design phase and they have passive provision for conversion to CATBOAR configuration. How practical that would turn out to be is left as an exercise for the reader.

 

[JamesT]

I'm about 80% sure that this was considered in the design phase and they have passive provision for conversion to CATBOAR configuration. How practical that would turn out to be is left as an exercise for the reader.

This was one of the major controversies over these carriers. It was claimed they could be converted to catapult operation before the order was made. However, when the coalition government got in, they said they were going to switch to CATOBAR. BAE turned round and said that will be £2bn and another 3 years on the build time to convert them. Unsurprisingly a U-turn was made and we have the F-35Bs.

 

[EYFanatic]

Problem is if you remove the F35's our 2 aircraft carriers are a waste of space and revert to helicopters, as the F35's are the only fixed wing that can fly off them.

True... Unless somehow the FAA decide to do something utterly mad and put that one last working harrier on the deck

 

[ainsworth74]

Problem is if you remove the F35's our 2 aircraft carriers are a waste of space and revert to helicopters, as the F35's are the only fixed wing that can fly off them.

There's no real need to ditch the F35 in particular but it is barmy to order more F35s than are required to provide air wings for the carriers (not that we've ordered enough Bs to do that). The really barmy move is in ordering more F35s that aren't usable from the carriers (this order of As for the RAF) to drop a weapon which is of no utility to the UK or even really NATO (gravity bomb tactical nukes). Utter waste of money and buying an aircraft we should be moving away from (apart from in the one niche it's the only game in town for). The 12 As we've randomly ordered additionally should have simply been an additional 12 Bs.

 

[najaB]

BAE turned round and said that will be £2bn and another 3 years on the build time to convert them.

That is, of course, two billion in cost-plus contract pounds.

 

[Annetts key]

My thoughts are that the U.K. should not buy any more U.S. made aircraft other than enough F-35Bs for our carrier operations.

If we need more fighter / multirole combat aircraft, we should buy more Eurofighter Typhoons. Or buy other suitable European aircraft. Or from other friendly countries.

This principle should apply for any military equipment except systems where there is no capable alternative.

While Trump treats us as an enemy / competitor / annoyance and subjects our trade to tariffs, we should make friends with European and other friendly countries such as Canada, Australia etc. and work with them to develop and build suitable systems.

I think it is also extremely important to fully back Ukraine and learn from them. Their experience of today's war will be invaluable.

 

[YorkshireBear]

Well this is a shock. I definitely don't know how the domestic Donald Trump fans will see this....

BBC News - Trump Defends Witkoff After Leak Appears to Show Envoy Coaching Russia

Trump defends Witkoff after leak appears to show envoy coaching Russia​

​

​

US President Donald Trump has defended special envoy Steve Witkoff as doing the "standard thing" after a leaked recording appeared to show him advising a Russian official on how to appeal to the president.
Trump told reporters on Wednesday he had not heard the audio, but that Witkoff was doing "what a dealmaker does" to "sell" the peace plan to both Russia and Ukraine.
The leaked call from last month emerged days after a 28-point draft peace plan presented by the US largely reflected Russian positions on its full-scale war in Ukraine.
Witkoff has visited Moscow several times this year and will meet Russian President Vladimir Putin again next week. He has not held talks in Kyiv.
He has never gone to Kyiv in his role as special envoy, although other US officials have visited and US army secretary Dan Driscoll went to Kyiv this week and Trump says he will hold further talks with the Ukrainians.
Diplomatic talks have continued after the initial draft plan was criticised by Ukrainian and European leaders as being too favourable to Russia. Among the proposals was a handover to Russia of Ukrainian-controlled territory in eastern Ukraine.
The plan has since been revised to better reflect Ukraine's interests and the views of European allies. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said he is ready to meet Trump to discuss outstanding "sensitive points".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy95jvw57v2o
In the leaked audio recording obtained and shared as a transcript by Bloomberg, external, Witkoff appeared to advise Yuri Ushakov, Putin's foreign policy adviser, on how to get on Trump's good side.
BBC News has not independently verified the reported 14 October call, but Trump said it represented a "very standard form of negotiations".
During the leaked conversation, the two men reportedly talked about ending the war, with Ushakov asking if it would be useful to get their bosses - Putin and Trump - to speak.
Witkoff is quoted as saying he does and that "my guy is ready to do it", before suggesting how to go about the call.
"Just reiterate that you congratulate the president [Trump] on this achievement... that you respect that he is a man of peace and you're just, you're really glad to have seen it happen," Witkoff is quoted as saying. "I think from that it's going to be a really good call."
"I told the president that you - that the Russian Federation has always wanted a peace deal. That's my belief," Witkoff adds according to the transcript. "The issue is is that we have two nations that are having a hard time coming to a compromise."
"I'm even thinking that maybe we set out like a 20-point peace proposal, just like we did in Gaza," Witkoff adds.
The call ends with Witkoff telling Ushakov of an imminent Zelensky visit to the White House and that "if possible", Trump and Putin should talk before that meeting.
What followed was a two-and-a-half hour phone call between the US and Russian presidents, news of which emerged as Zelensky was on his way to Washington last month.
Before the Trump-Putin call, the US president had appeared to be running out of patience with his Russian counterpart and had suggested he might provide Ukraine with long-range Tomahawk missiles.
By the time Zelensky entered the White House, the atmosphere appeared to have changed. Trump said giving Kyiv Tomahawks could escalate the conflict and he believed Putin "wants to end the war".
Asked about the leaked call, Yuri Ushakov told Russian state media that it was done to "hinder, probably" and that it was "unlikely" to be done to improve relations.
He also confirmed that Witkoff would be visiting Moscow next week as per a "preliminary agreement".
It was not clear who was behind the leak, but Bloomberg has also transcribed another reported call between Ushakov and Putin envoy Kirill Dmitriev, who spent days with Witkoff in Miami in late October weeks before the 28-point draft plan emerged.
According to the transcript, Dmitriev tells his Russian colleague: "We'll just make this paper from our position, and I'll informally pass it along, making it clear that it's all informal. And let them do like their own."
Apparently angered by the report, Dmitriev complained of a "well-funded, well-organised malicious media machine built to spread fake narratives, smear opponents and keep people confused".

 

[brad465]

Well this is a shock. I definitely don't know how the domestic Donald Trump fans will see this....

BBC News - Trump Defends Witkoff After Leak Appears to Show Envoy Coaching Russia

Under a previous administration that would be grounds for a charge of "Aiding the enemy", serious enough that one can be executed for it.