Russia invades Ukraine

[ainsworth74]

Again...the absolute disregard that senior Russians have for life is clear to see. Similar to Hammas really. If they are willing to kill their 'own' people...what will they do to the 'enemy'?

Bucha is your answer.

According to local authorities, 458 bodies have been recovered from the town, including 9 children under the age of 18; among the victims, 419 people were killed with weapons and 39 appeared to have died of natural causes, possibly related to the occupation. The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights documented the unlawful killings, including summary executions, of at least 73 civilians in Bucha. Photos showed corpses of civilians, lined up with their hands bound behind their backs, shot at point-blank range. An inquiry by Radio Free Europe reported the use of a basement beneath a campground as a torture chamber. Many bodies were found mutilated and burnt, and girls as young as fourteen reported being raped by Russian soldiers.

 

[357]

Again...the absolute disregard that senior Russians have for life is clear to see. Similar to Hammas really. If they are willing to kill their 'own' people...what will they do to the 'enemy'?

One day I'll post the photos I took in the days following the invasion and on my return visits since. It would likely need prior moderator approval though.

A friend of mine in Borodyanka has published a couple of books with stories of the occupation. I'll ask her for the PDFs and will share them in this thread (assuming you can attach PDFs). It will probably be tomorrow though as they are +2 hours and it's a Friday night.

 

[Pete_uk]

The recent Avdiivka advance has gained the Russians a few hundred meters at a cost of 4000+ lives and hundreds of vehicles.

 

[Cloud Strife]

The recent Avdiivka advance has gained the Russians a few hundred meters at a cost of 4000+ lives and hundreds of vehicles.

I just cannot understand the Russian mentality here. It's obvious that they're trying to secure the entirety of the Donetsk Oblast, but for what? They'll never manage to hold onto it in any secure way, and Ukraine will be throwing a huge amount of resources into developing new weapons in which to constantly harass them with.

I do have a terrible feeling that this may be the future of this war. Russia will throw huge amounts of resources at a small advance, Ukraine will defend and tear them to pieces, but Russia will simply keep coming back for more. Just how much can Russia lose? 4000 lives is nothing for them, but just how many vehicles do they have?

 

[najaB]

Just how much can Russia lose? 4000 lives is nothing for them, but just how many vehicles do they have?

It's actually quite a lot. The one thing that Russia is desperately short of on a national scale is men between 20 and 30. They had terrible demographics before the war started, and losing a hundred thousand or so won't have improved things at all.

 

[Killingworth]

I just cannot understand the Russian mentality here. It's obvious that they're trying to secure the entirety of the Donetsk Oblast, but for what? They'll never manage to hold onto it in any secure way, and Ukraine will be throwing a huge amount of resources into developing new weapons in which to constantly harass them with.

I do have a terrible feeling that this may be the future of this war. Russia will throw huge amounts of resources at a small advance, Ukraine will defend and tear them to pieces, but Russia will simply keep coming back for more. Just how much can Russia lose? 4000 lives is nothing for them, but just how many vehicles do they have?

Russia is vast with many nationalities, Russians most dominant. They have an inbred inferiority/victim complex, surrounded by enemies they must overcome. The sieges of Stalingrad and Leningrad are seared into their history, most especially into the youthful upbringing of that son of Leningrad, Putin. Deprivation and death is expected in pursuit of victory.

The way it's now going neither side will gain a pleasantly habitable region free from strife and future conflict. It's becoming a wasteland.

The difficulty for Ukraine is democracy in action during warfare with access to so much information both factual and fabricated. Zelensky is entering a difficult period when the world has another conflict to divert attention. Boredom is creeping in and many are starting to ask how much the west should be funding, for how long and for what.

In 2015 an untidy simmering front line was left ready to reignite sooner or later as it inevitably did. Neither side is near achieving long lasting natural secure borders that could be accepted by the other.

There's a dangerous assumption in many parts of the west that Russia can't win, that their tactics will eventually see them ground down. Well into the second year of conflict both sides are being ground down. Both nations are losing far more than they're gaining.

The necessary reconstruction is already daunting and will take decades without any more destruction. Sadly that's all we're likely to see until one side accepts it has to fall back. The coming winter will be crucial on the home fronts as much as on the battlefield.

 

[ainsworth74]

but just how many vehicles do they have?

They've still got lots from what I've been able to read from various places as they had storage facilities with hundreds and in the largest case thousands of armoured vehicles parked up. Obviously in varying conditions and, as the war goes on, getting older and older. But an old decrepit armoured vehicle is better than no armoured vehicle. Something the Russian's appreciate. Most NATO nations don't have deep reserves of old retired vehicles because we either sell them onto other countries or scrap them ASAP. Pretty much only the US has deep reserves of vehicles to call on.

The Russians will run out eventually I wouldn't be surprised if the shortage of working armoured vehicles becomes acute and serious at some point in 2024. Their reserves are large but not limitless and my understanding is that their new construction cannot keep pace with losses (hence dragging vehicles out of storage that were in their prime when many Russian soldiers were twinkles in their fathers eye).

What happens then could be interesting indeed...

It's actually quite a lot. The one thing that Russia is desperately short of on a national scale is men between 20 and 30. They had terrible demographics before the war started, and losing a hundred thousand or so won't have improved things at all.

Yes the BBC did some analysis back in the summer that suggested that the average age of dead Russian soldiers at the start of the war was around 21 but had risen by then to be around 34.

[...]

When the war began, the typical Russian fighter whose death was recorded in the BBC's count was about 21 years old and a low-ranking professional soldier...

[...]

In recent months, the typical Russian soldier killed in Ukraine is a 34-year-old convict recruited from prison.

That analysis was back in June and obviously based on information from the months proceeding so the picture may well have changed again. I have my doubts that it's still convicts recruited from prison that are doing the majority of the dying at the moment. But it wouldn't surprise me to find out that the age is still older than you might expect.

Sometimes the losses skew incredibly old as well from the same analysis:

[...]

These losses have forced veterans out of retirement, such as Maj Gen Kanamat Botashev.

His military career was halted in 2012 when he borrowed an Su-27 fighter jet without permission and crashed it. In May last year, at the age of 63, he was piloting an Su-25 ground attack aircraft when it was shot down over Luhansk in eastern Ukraine.

He was not the oldest person in our count of the dead.

Mikhail Shuvalov, a retired power plant worker, volunteered at the age of 71. Media reports say he was initially rejected, but eventually he went to the front line and was killed on 10 December.
[...]

When you're pulling disgraced 63 year olds out of retirement to fly ground attack missions and letting 71 year olds join the infantry you've got manpower problems...

But fundamentally Russia doesn't have many 20 or 30 somethings and whilst it claims that it's teenage cohort has bounced back you've got to question the accuracy of those statistics. It seems somewhat improbable that there would be a sudden baby boom after decades of decline. It's interesting really. In many respects Russia's demographics never recovered from the Second World War.

Russia seems to be currently spending it's post-Soviet inheritance of military capability trying to capture a few chunks of Ukraine whilst also slaughtering it's prime working age and baby making men crippling it for decades to come in the same effort. At least the last time they kneecapped their demographics like this they did it in the cause of defeating actual Nazi's.

 

[Shaw S Hunter]

I just cannot understand the Russian mentality here. It's obvious that they're trying to secure the entirety of the Donetsk Oblast, but for what? They'll never manage to hold onto it in any secure way, and Ukraine will be throwing a huge amount of resources into developing new weapons in which to constantly harass them with.

I do have a terrible feeling that this may be the future of this war. Russia will throw huge amounts of resources at a small advance, Ukraine will defend and tear them to pieces, but Russia will simply keep coming back for more. Just how much can Russia lose? 4000 lives is nothing for them, but just how many vehicles do they have?

There has long been a complete indifference on the part of the elite of the Russian ruling class towards the lives of ordinary Russian people. It was true under Stalin, it was true under the Tsars. But even with the massive suppression of any expression of public opinion eventually public anger will come to the surface. A significant part of the decision for Russia to withdraw from Afghanistan was the groundswell of anger from the mothers of soldiers who eventually knew only too well how badly run and ill equipped the Red Army really was. Such stories of incompetence within the Russian military are just as common today, no reason why a similar outcome should not arise. But it does depend on other countries (ie NATO) continuing to recognise the danger of an unchecked Russia and therefore the need to support Ukraine. The biggest danger in that regard is probably the machinations of the US Republican party.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

I agree with @ainsworth74 in that I don’t think Russian demographics have ever really recovered from the 2nd World War. Let’s never forget, in terms of people killed no nation suffered more than the Soviets in WW2. As Stalin once famously said “WW2 was won by American Brawn, British Brains and Russian Blood.

 

[GS250]

I agree with @ainsworth74 in that I don’t think Russian demographics have ever really recovered from the 2nd World War. Let’s never forget, in terms of people killed no nation suffered more than the Soviets in WW2. As Stalin once famously said “WW2 was won by American Brawn, British Brains and Russian Blood.

Which makes the present situation even more baffling. The USSR didn't want the 'Cold War' to turn into an actual war. The losses of WW2 were still fresh in their minds and they simply didn't want a repeat anytime soon.

However the whole ridiculous line of 'you are expected to die for the motherland' translates to 'you are expected to die for the Oligarchy'.

 

[uglymonkey]

But they were quite happy to plough into the meat grinder that was Afghanistan? Another miscalculation?

 

[najaB]

But they were quite happy to plough into the meat grinder that was Afghanistan? Another miscalculation?

In a word: yes. The same mistake the British made before them and the United States made after them. Afghanistan is where empires go to die.

 

[GS250]

In a word: yes. The same mistake the British made before them and the United States made after them. Afghanistan is where empires go to die.

In the case of the USSR going there, another case of huge over confidence in their own military capability. The very thought of the Red Army rolling into town was supposed to win the war without a single bullet being fired in return.

 

[Shaw S Hunter]

I agree with @ainsworth74 in that I don’t think Russian demographics have ever really recovered from the 2nd World War. Let’s never forget, in terms of people killed no nation suffered more than the Soviets in WW2. As Stalin once famously said “WW2 was won by American Brawn, British Brains and Russian Blood.

In terms of pure numbers this is true. But it's worth remembering that a considerable proportion of those deaths was Soviet on Soviet in various different ways. While there seems still to be some debate as to the actual numbers the total deaths are generally reckoned to be north of 20 million (I have seen estimates as high as 27 million) but probably at least 8 million of those were self inflicted. There does seem to be a horrendous stubbornness in the Russian attitude to military conflict that makes the likelihood of reaching a negotiated settlement with their leadership incredibly small. As such any military conflict with Russia will either conclude very quickly or turn into a marathon of attrition.

 

[gingerheid]

I fear the ugly events in Dagestan show that there are a certain number of people who are:

A) An unruly nuisance to the authorities and quite suitable for being put in the meat grinder in places like Avdiivka

B) Anti Jewish racists that would be perfectly delighted to take up the cause against a country with a Jewish president

 

[brad465]

I fear the ugly events in Dagestan show that there are a certain number of people who are:

A) An unruly nuisance to the authorities and quite suitable for being put in the meat grinder in places like Avdiivka

B) Anti Jewish racists that would be perfectly delighted to take up the cause against a country with a Jewish president

I wonder if this is bad news for Russia as it puts them back in the news and links the two ongoing conflicts together, potentially helping ensure Ukraine continues to get support.

 

[DustyBin]

I wonder if this is bad news for Russia as it puts them back in the news and links the two ongoing conflicts together, potentially helping ensure Ukraine continues to get support.

The whole thing looks staged; the mob couldn't have got as far as they did without at least some kind of assistance.

I see the Kremlin are blaming "outside influences". Will that be Ukrainian Nazis or NATO one wonders?

 

[GS250]

The whole thing looks staged; the mob couldn't have got as far as they did without at least some kind of assistance.

I see the Kremlin are blaming "outside influences". Will that be Ukrainian Nazis or NATO one wonders?

I thought Russia had a relatively okay relationship with Israel and the Jews?

 

[DustyBin]

I thought Russia had a relatively okay relationship with Israel and the Jews?

They do (or rather did), and Israel has been notably reluctant to provide assistance to Ukraine as a result. The Russians however have decided that cosying up even further to Iran by expressing support for Hamas is more important to them, a decision they'll very likely come to regret....

 

[35B]

They do (or rather did), and Israel has been notably reluctant to provide assistance to Ukraine as a result. The Russians however have decided that cosying up even further to Iran by expressing support for Hamas is more important to them, a decision they'll very likely come to regret....

Not to mention that Russian rulers have long had an uneasy relationship with their subjects in the Caucasus, where religious differences have been one of the factors aggravating tension.

 

[najaB]

Not to mention that Russian rulers have long had an uneasy relationship with their subjects in the Caucasus, where religious differences have been one of the factors aggravating tension.

The percentage of Muslims does increase as one heads east and south from Moscow.

 

[ainsworth74]

The percentage of Muslims does increase as one heads east and south from Moscow.

Shame that they seem more interested in hunting down Jews rather than looking at the casualty lists, the proportion of those killed and wounded who have come from the south and east of Moscow compared to the areas around Moscow and think to themselves that perhaps the real enemy might be the inhabitant of the Kremlin and his colleagues who seem happy to waste the lives of their compatriots hundreds (and indeed in some cases thousands) of miles away in Ukraine. They also might want to ask themselves why Moscow and other cities in western Russia are comparable in terms of development and infrastructure to much of Europe but their villages and towns are often less developed than they were in the latter years of the Soviet Union. But, as is so often the case throughout history, it would seem that they'd rather blame an "other" rather than their imperial leadership.

 

[DustyBin]

Shame that they seem more interested in hunting down Jews rather than looking at the casualty lists, the proportion of those killed and wounded who have come from the south and east of Moscow compared to the areas around Moscow and think to themselves that perhaps the real enemy might be the inhabitant of the Kremlin and his colleagues who seem happy to waste the lives of their compatriots hundreds (and indeed in some cases thousands) of miles away in Ukraine. They also might want to ask themselves why Moscow and other cities in western Russia are comparable in terms of development and infrastructure to much of Europe but their villages and towns are often less developed than they were in the latter years of the Soviet Union. But, as is so often the case throughout history, it would seem that they'd rather blame an "other" rather than their imperial leadership.

My thoughts exactly.

 

[najaB]

But, as is so often the case throughout history, it would seem that they'd rather blame an "other" rather than their imperial leadership.

And the imperial leadership are entirely happy for it to remain that way. Two-minute hates and all that.

 

[35B]

Shame that they seem more interested in hunting down Jews rather than looking at the casualty lists, the proportion of those killed and wounded who have come from the south and east of Moscow compared to the areas around Moscow and think to themselves that perhaps the real enemy might be the inhabitant of the Kremlin and his colleagues who seem happy to waste the lives of their compatriots hundreds (and indeed in some cases thousands) of miles away in Ukraine. They also might want to ask themselves why Moscow and other cities in western Russia are comparable in terms of development and infrastructure to much of Europe but their villages and towns are often less developed than they were in the latter years of the Soviet Union. But, as is so often the case throughout history, it would seem that they'd rather blame an "other" rather than their imperial leadership.

@najaB is right about the imperial leadership. But we also need to remember that there are a range of influences at work, amongst which are some that emphasise a common Muslim identity. And as Russia has a few problems with anti-Semitism (both the word "pogrom" and the concept of the "Pale of Settlement"/being "beyond the pale" are hangovers from Tsarist days), it's sadly unsurprising that it appears in various places and forms, as here.

 

[Segedunum]

Seems that Lukashenko's getting a bit bored of the whole thing...

“There are enough problems on both sides and in general the situation is now seriously stalemate: no one can do anything and substantively strengthen or advance their position,” Mr Lukashenko said.

“They’re there head-to-head, to the death, entrenched. People are dying,” he said over the weekend.

This marks the first time the Belarusian president has come forward seeking truce in the conflict and called for a “stop” command.

A geographically closer nation to Russia, Belarus’s territory was used as a launch pad for the Russian preident’s full-scale invasion in February last year. He is also the only international leader to have frequently met Mr Putin since the conflict engulfed Ukraine.

He said that Ukraine’s demands for Russia to quit its territory needs to be resolved at the negotiating table so that “nobody dies”.

 

[Gloster]

@najaB is right about the imperial leadership. But we also need to remember that there are a range of influences at work, amongst which are some that emphasise a common Muslim identity. And as Russia has a few problems with anti-Semitism (both the word "pogrom" and the concept of the "Pale of Settlement"/being "beyond the pale" are hangovers from Tsarist days), it's sadly unsurprising that it appears in various places and forms, as here.

Well, possibly. The Russian Pale only appeared in 1791, but pales marking the limits of English jurisdiction had existed around Dublin and Calais for several hundred years before that. Although the phrase ‘beyond the pale’ was used in the Rssian context, there were probably very similar uses in the centuries before; John Harington, who died in 1612, used it. It has been suggested that it originally came from those who put themselves outside of the English laws in the Dublin Pale and were to be treated as near outlaws.

I don’t want to take this off subject, but I do like accuracy.

 

[brad465]

Seems that Lukashenko's getting a bit bored of the whole thing...

Well that's him falling out of a window or boarding a bomb-laden aircraft...

 

[DustyBin]

Seems that Lukashenko's getting a bit bored of the whole thing...

He helped facilitate the whole **** show; it’s a bit late to start playing peacemaker now. Has he only just realised that people are dying?

I strongly suspect he’s actually more concerned by the fact that his own survival depends on Putin remaining in power, and that the ongoing war is counterproductive is this regard. I don’t like Lukashenko at all, but he’s no fool and he’s a survivor, so it’s interesting that he’s saying this.

 

[Pete_uk]

The Russians attacked from the south.
Didn't go well.