Russia invades Ukraine

[Annetts key]

My only doubt about that is that, in the past, the consensus seems to have been that the Russian Government would never want to unnecessarily admit (or give the impression that) Ukraine can strike deep in Russian territory because that would communicate that their defences are very poor. Saying that Ukraine can strike not just inside Russia, but the residence of the supreme leader himself would seem to be about as bad as it can get from that point of view.

The trouble with that, is that drones have repeatedly flown over/through Russian air space already. With Russia often saying that Russian air defences shot them down (or shot all but one down if damage was admitted).

 

[Sm5]

Footage of the incident is now on the BBC website. Some form of random CCTV capturing it would be far more believable but this appears to be shaky handheld footage from someone pointing the camera exactly where the incident was going to happen and even moving the camera slightly once the drone appears in shot. Looks very much staged to me.

I have no reason to believe it was fake.

The “shaky” footage was taken from across the river from the Kremlin. i’m pretty certain from the angle of the shot was taken is taken from a building which definitely is not Russian Government property. I say that because ive been been in that building and have my own photo of the Kremlin taken from pretty much the same spot the “shaky” footage was filmed from, several years ago.

Whether the drone attack was staged, or Ukrainian, or a Russian protestor I couldnt say, nor could I say the nationality of whom made the shaky video, but theres a better than average chance the cameraman may not be Russian, nor even “friendly” to Russia either… which of course increased its chance of being distributed.

The other ‘full colour” video taken from Gum building, opposite side of Red Square is obviously Russian media footage and in full government control to release. That video does throw up questions of who were those two blokes climbing the dome in the middle of the night just beforehand any way… funny time to be changing a light bulb, sure theres no loos up there and many better places for a cigarette… thats more of a question than the drone that followed, as their timing would be impeccable, if they were responding to it… so maybe the footage is genuine, but the events may be staged… just days before victory day… hmm ?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 3 May 2023 ==

One theory I've heard is it was staged to provide justification for cancelling victory parades next week.

I would believe that as an excuse.
Afterall families carrying pictures of deceased relatives is a big part of that parade.

This year may see more new faces than may be comfortable. Thats the kind of thing that attracts the wrong kind of question for the authorities.
Whilst not short for hardware, working hardware, personnel all polished up nationwide would be a bigger effort this year than last, weve seen kit that was decorated for Victory day last year, destroyed in Ukraine a few weeks later.

 

[najaB]

Staged to justify another more focused assassination attempt on Zelensky maybe?

Seems that way:

Russia has attacked multiple cities in Ukraine with drones and missiles in the wake of accusing Kyiv of targeting Vladimir Putin – a claim rubbished by President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Iranian-made drones, striking a university campus in the Black Sea city of Odesa while drones and missiles were also launched against Kyiv for the third time in four days.

Ukraine’s military said that in Odesa, three drones — inscribed “for Moscow” and “for the Kremlin,” referencing what Russia has claimed was a failed drone attack against the Kremlin on Wednesday — hit a dorm of an educational facility, but the fire was quickly put out and there were no casualties.

Responding to drone attac accusation, Mr Zelensky said: “We don’t attack Putin, or Moscow, we fight on our territory.”

Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev – now deputy head of Russia’s Security Council and a stanch Putin ally – is among those riled enough to call for a large-scale response from the Kremlin, saying the drone incident “leaves us no option but to physically eliminate Zelensky and his clique”.

Source: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...in-kremlin-assassination-latest-b2332120.html

 

[Scotrail314209]

Oh here we go;

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-65480044

Russia has accused the United States of being behind an overnight drone attack on the Kremlin that it says intended to kill Vladimir Putin.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that "decisions on such attacks are not made in Kyiv, but in Washington".

"Kyiv only does what it is told to do," he told reporters in a briefing.

Peskov did not provide any evidence to back up the claims, but he said that an urgent investigation was under way.

Yesterday, US officials said the White House had no warning of a drone attack on the Kremlin.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken cast doubt on the Kremlin's accusations following the event, and said: "I would take anything coming out of the Kremlin with a very large shaker of salt."

 

[Cloud Strife]

Smells suspiciously like a false flag to me. Especially given it has occurred in May, after the Russians should have made significantly more progress than they have over the last three months, are scared stupid over Ukraines upcoming offensive, need even more men to be sent to fight, and, maybe are having difficulty putting together as big a display as they wanted in their ‘victory day’ parade on the 9th May.

Absolutely, they have no idea what might be coming in Ukraine, and they might well be terrified that Ukraine would choose that day (May 9th) to launch their counterattack. There is the point that this is perhaps an attempt to cover up what Ukraine has been doing elsewhere, that is, battering Russian supply bases behind the front lines. One commentator suggests that Ukraine took out around 50% of Russia's Black Sea fuel depots, which will give them even more problems.

But at the same time, I think it is plausible that the Russian air defences are so poor that Ukrainian drones got through. They haven't even been able to stop Ukraine from blowing stuff in Crimea, and they certainly got close to Moscow before.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

False flag might be possible, or it could be a rogue dissident in Russia who was either unsuccessful or firing a warning shot? While Ukraine have made suspected attacks on military targets in Russia, I don't know if they'd have anything to gain orchestrating this one?

As a rough guess: I'm not sure Ukraine would have much to gain from actually assassinating Putin, since the results would be very unpredictable, but would almost certainly include a surge of patriotic fervour in Russia, which seems unlikely to help bring the war to an end. On the other hand, they might have something to gain from an attack that comes close enough to make Putin more worried and fearful for his own safety, since that would be likely to lead to Putin isolating himself further from his population, make him more paranoid and therefore more determined to micro-manage everything, and so could plausibly lead to even worse military decision-making by Russia.

 

[adc82140]

Oh here we go;

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-65480044

I think Peskov may have spoken out of turn there, and this has been amplified by the media. It was said as an aside, not the main crux of his point, and interestingly Russian state media is downplaying the US bit and concentrating on the Ukrainians being responsible. A subsequent Russian foreign ministry statement does not mention the US.

 

[dgl]

Oh here we go;

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-65480044

If America wanted to get rid of Putin then this attack would have been a success.

 

[Killingworth]

As a rough guess: I'm not sure Ukraine would have much to gain from actually assassinating Putin, since the results would be very unpredictable, but would almost certainly include a surge of patriotic fervour in Russia, which seems unlikely to help bring the war to an end. On the other hand, they might have something to gain from an attack that comes close enough to make Putin more worried and fearful for his own safety, since that would be likely to lead to Putin isolating himself further from his population, make him more paranoid and therefore more determined to micro-manage everything, and so could plausibly lead to even worse military decision-making by Russia.

Nothing to gain by assassinating Putin, but if they did want to do it aiming a small explosive device very accurately at the aerial or flag pole on the top of the dome was never going to work.

However to show the gullible public what Russia's up against it's a good move by the false flag section. Psychologically a civilian population will tend to fall in against the side that's bombing or shelling their homes and locality. It worked for us when the Luftwaffe bombed Buckingham Palace. The Kremlin is similarly symbolic in Russia.

 

[Giugiaro]

All that Zelesky and Biden need to say is that "They want Putin to be arrested and then trialed on the Hague, and him being dead won't work!".

 

[ninja-lewis]

Railway-related news

This is what resilience looks like. Before leaving Kherson yesterday, this train was hit in a shelling that left one of its carriages on fire and one steward wounded. Still, the trip was only delayed by 14 minutes, ending in Lviv today according to schedule - to the minute

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1654110614778793985

Train No. 109, which was fired upon yesterday at the Kherson railway station, arrived in Lviv without delay.

Colleagues and residents greeted the heroic train crew with applause. According to one of the conductors, he went to the platform after the shelling and saw a smoking car. Next to him, the policemen were already applying a tourniquet to the injured conductor Roman.

The train crew acted quickly and accurately, a few minutes before the collision, they transferred two passengers with reduced mobility from the evacuation car to the shelter and then promptly unhooked the burning car from the train, put the passengers on board, and left the station with only 14 minutes delay, despite the chaos and air traffic alert.

The wounded conductor Roman has already been discharged from the Kherson hospital and returned to his native Mykolaiv. His condition is stable.

https://twitter.com/Lyla_lilas/status/1654090711401152513

 

[Cloud Strife]

As a rough guess: I'm not sure Ukraine would have much to gain from actually assassinating Putin, since the results would be very unpredictable, but would almost certainly include a surge of patriotic fervour in Russia, which seems unlikely to help bring the war to an end. On the other hand, they might have something to gain from an attack that comes close enough to make Putin more worried and fearful for his own safety, since that would be likely to lead to Putin isolating himself further from his population, make him more paranoid and therefore more determined to micro-manage everything, and so could plausibly lead to even worse military decision-making by Russia.

The thing is: assassinating Putin would terrify a lot of people in senior positions in Russia. It would show that their military defence is pathetic, and that they could well be next. There's no way of knowing if Ukraine doesn't have special forces already in Moscow and waiting to attack, and it could well end up in another civil war. There is still no obvious successor to Putin, which would cause even more chaos.

But yes, the second part of your post is something I absolutely agree with. This kind of attack doesn't have to succeed, it just has to cause Putin to become even more paranoid and reclusive. If he can be provoked into making an even more stupid decision (like filling the occupied territories full of men pulled randomly from the streets), then it only works in favour of Ukraine.

 

[edwin_m]

Ukraine has shot down one of its own drones after it went out of control.

Ukraine shoots down own drone over central Kyiv

The air force says the drone went out of control and was destroyed to avoid "undesirable circumstances".

www.bbc.co.uk

In a statement, it said the Bayraktar TB2 UAV [unmanned aerial vehicle] had lost control around at 20:00 (17:00 GMT) in the Kyiv region, during a scheduled flight.
It added that it had taken a decision to shoot it down "since the uncontrolled presence of UAVs in the sky of the capital could lead to undesirable consequences".
There were no casualties or injuries from the falling drone, it said.
"It's a pity, but this is technology, and such cases happen," the statement said. "It is probably a technical malfunction, the reasons are being established."

I wonder if this is Russian hackers.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 5 May 2023 ==

This kind of attack doesn't have to succeed, it just has to cause Putin to become even more paranoid and reclusive. If he can be provoked into making an even more stupid decision (like filling the occupied territories full of men pulled randomly from the streets), then it only works in favour of Ukraine.

It could also be used by Russia to whip up popular support for a further mobilisation. If that happens it's bad news for Ukraine, as it will perpetuate the Bakhmut-type attritional war (probably somewhere else), or create more force to resist a counter-offensive, or both. Even if Ukraine inflicts disproportionate casualties, less likely when they are on the offensive, then at the end of the day they have fewer people to lose - to say nothing of the huge amount of suffering caused to citizens of both countries.

A mobilisation without popular support could have the same effect but at greater risk to Putin, and I guess we can't tell which way that would go.

 

[Annetts key]

Mobilising more personal is all very well, but with the losses that Russia has been and is continuing to suffer, what is going to transport all these people and what are they going to fight with?

Russia may still have hundreds to thousands of tanks, APCs, IFVs etc. in reserve, but how many can be made operational and more importantly, how effective will the old equipment be?

Also, as Russia plunders it’s population for men to go and fight, who’s going to keep it’s industry and economy going? Putin’s war chest will run out of money eventually. Then they either have to print money, sell off assets, or find a way of borrowing lots of money.

 

[Gloster]

Mobilising more personal is all very well, but with the losses that Russia has been and is continuing to suffer, what is going to transport all these people and what are they going to fight with?

Russia may still have hundreds to thousands of tanks, APCs, IFVs etc. in reserve, but how many can be made operational and more importantly, how effective will the old equipment be?

Also, as Russia plunders it’s population for men to go and fight, who’s going to keep it’s industry and economy going? Putin’s war chest will run out of money eventually. Then they either have to print money, sell off assets, or find a way of borrowing lots of money.

Does that matter to Putin? He is not going to lose face, even if there is nothing left but a pile of his own dead for him to stand on.

 

[Killingworth]

Mobilising more personal is all very well, but with the losses that Russia has been and is continuing to suffer, what is going to transport all these people and what are they going to fight with?

Russia may still have hundreds to thousands of tanks, APCs, IFVs etc. in reserve, but how many can be made operational and more importantly, how effective will the old equipment be?

Also, as Russia plunders it’s population for men to go and fight, who’s going to keep it’s industry and economy going? Putin’s war chest will run out of money eventually. Then they either have to print money, sell off assets, or find a way of borrowing lots of money.

Russia is still able to sell a lot of oil and gas and their population is well rehearsed in accepting hardship. Directing more people into industry or the military will be easier for them than it would be for us in the west.

Destroying old tanks still consumes Ukrainian ammunition and there may be doubts if enough of the right type is being produced to continue doing that, assuming sonebody is able to pay for it.

Time will tell.

 

[najaB]

Russia is still able to sell a lot of oil and gas and their population is well rehearsed in accepting hardship

That is true, however they also need to be able to sell it at anything like the prices that other producers are able to. Back in December they were getting less than $60USD per barrel as compared to Brent which was hovering around $85USD. So there's no doubt that they are hurting.

Directing more people into industry or the military will be easier for them than it would be for us in the west.

That is also true, but Russia already had a demographic problem before the war in that they barely had enough young people to fill the jobs. A million young men killed or maimed in war and another million plus leaving the country isn't going to have helped things at all.

 

[Loppylugs]

Looks like it's goodbye Kaliningrad, hello Krolewiec ! Well done Poland.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Looks like it's goodbye Kaliningrad, hello Krolewiec ! Well done Poland.

Not very helpful if we don't consider WW III to be a good thing. This has to stick to being about getting Ukraine back the bits it's had nicked, not also nicking parts of Russia whether they might not have been parts of Russia years ago or not.

 

[ainsworth74]

Not very helpful if we don't consider WW III to be a good thing. This has to stick to being about getting Ukraine back the bits it's had nicked, not also nicking parts of Russia whether they might not have been parts of Russia years ago or not.

I'm not quite sure how changing the name of somewhere = World War 3. I'm not aware of any proposal to invade the territory in question?

 

[takno]

Not very helpful if we don't consider WW III to be a good thing. This has to stick to being about getting Ukraine back the bits it's had nicked, not also nicking parts of Russia whether they might not have been parts of Russia years ago or not.

The Polish government have simply decided to change the name in Polish back to the traditional Polish name for the region.

The Polish haven't controlled the place since the Polish-Lithuanian empire days, and frankly I don't think anybody would be entirely comfortable giving it back to the Germans, so invading the place probably isn't anybody's list of priorities.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The Polish government have simply decided to change the name in Polish back to the traditional Polish name for the region.

I'm aware of what they've done, and I think it's unhelpful.

This has to stay as "Russia has done bad, we need to undo what Russia has done" and nothing more. Anything more is a dangerous step towards global thermonuclear war.

 

[Annetts key]

Anything more is a dangerous step towards global thermonuclear war.

There isn’t going to be global thermonuclear war. No one has taken any steps towards a global thermonuclear war.

 

[najaB]

This has to stay as "Russia has done bad, we need to undo what Russia has done" and nothing more. Anything more is a dangerous step towards global thermonuclear war.

This is no more going to start a nuclear war than calling Kyiv "Kyiv" did.

 

[ainsworth74]

I'm aware of what they've done, and I think it's unhelpful.

This has to stay as "Russia has done bad, we need to undo what Russia has done" and nothing more. Anything more is a dangerous step towards global thermonuclear war.

No-one is starting a nuclear war because Poland decided to use the Polish name for a Russian territory. It barely even registers on the scale of things that could lead to that.

 

[brad465]

I'm aware of what they've done, and I think it's unhelpful.

This has to stay as "Russia has done bad, we need to undo what Russia has done" and nothing more. Anything more is a dangerous step towards global thermonuclear war.

If changing the name of a particular Russian area will cause nuclear war, but NATO sending Ukraine several billions in arms for the Ukraine army to use to kill and destroy Russian forces as well as retake territory Putin believes is his doesn't, then Putin's head is even more muddled up than it already is.

 

[Falcon1200]

This has to stick to being about getting Ukraine back the bits it's had nicked, not also nicking parts of Russia whether they might not have been parts of Russia years ago or not.

Kaliningrad is no more a valid historical name than Stalingrad is. Or rather was - Did the Russians not re-rename that city themselves? Given the history between Poland and Russia the Poles decision is entirely understandable.

 

[brad465]

We're now sending Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine, which can be fired from aircraft and have a range of 250km+:

UK confirms supply of Storm Shadow long-range missiles in Ukraine

The Storm Shadow cruise missile will give Ukraine new capabilities in its conflict with Russia.

www.bbc.co.uk

The UK has confirmed it is supplying Ukraine with long-range missiles it requested for its fight against invading Russian forces.
The Storm Shadow cruise missile has a range of over 250km (155 miles), according to the manufacturer.
By contrast, the US-supplied Himars missiles used by Ukraine only have a range of around 80 km (50 miles).
The weapons will give Ukraine new capabilities as it prepares a counter-offensive against Russia.
They are fired from aircraft, so the longer range means Ukrainian pilots will be able to stay further from the frontlines.
Once launched, the Storm Shadow drops to low altitude to avoid detection by enemy radar, before latching onto its target with an infra-red seeker.

The announcement was made in the House of Commons by UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace. The decision follows repeated pleas from Ukraine for more weapons from the West.
Mr Wallace said the missiles would "allow Ukraine to push back Russian forces based on Ukrainian sovereign territory".
He said the UK took the decision after Russia "continued down a dark path" of targeting civilian infrastructure in Ukraine.
Mr Wallace wrote to his Russian counterpart Sergei Shoigu in December, he said, to warn that further attacks could result in the UK donating more capable weapons.
"The donation of these missile systems gives Ukraine the best chance of defending themselves against Russia's brutality," he told MPs.
He said the missiles were "going into" or already in Ukrainian hands, and described the move as "calibrated and proportionate to Russia's escalations".
"None of this would have been necessary had Russia not invaded," he said.
But he warned the range of the British-supplied Storm Shadows was "not in the same league" as Russia's own missile systems - with some of Moscow's weapons being able to travel far further.
Citing Ukrainian figures, Mr Wallace accused Russia of committing 70,000 war crimes in Ukraine since the full-scale invasion began in 2022.
Crimes included the deportation and internment of children, as well as the bombing of civilian infrastructure, he said.
Earlier this year, Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov insisted longer-range missiles would not be used to attack targets within Russia itself.
"If we could strike at a distance of up to 300 kilometres, the Russian army wouldn't be able to provide defence and will have to lose," he told an EU meeting.
"Ukraine is ready to provide any guarantees that your weapons will not be involved in attacks on the Russian territory."
In February, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said he was prepared to send long-range missiles to Ukraine, and the British government opened a bidding process for their procurement.
"Together we must help Ukraine to shield its cities from Russian bombs and Iranian drones," Mr Sunak said then. "That's why the United Kingdom will be the first country to give Ukraine longer-range weapons."
On Thursday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Moscow would take an "appropriate" military response to any British-supplied Storm Shadow weapons used by Ukrainian forces.
The Storm Shadow missile has been operated by both British and French air forces and has been used previously in the Gulf, Iraq and Libya.
The British-supplied missiles can only be fired by aircraft, but French missiles can be fired from ships and submarines.

 

[Gloster]

Kaliningrad is no more a valid historical name than Stalingrad is. Or rather was - Did the Russians not re-rename that city themselves? Given the history between Poland and Russia the Poles decision is entirely understandable.

It was called Königsberg under German rule up to the end of World War II and only renamed to Kaliningrad after it was handed to Russia in the Potsdam Agreement. It could be pointed out that Mikhail Kalinin was one of those who signed the order for the Katyn Massacre of Polish officers and others in 1940.

 

[Pete_uk]

It's a shame the 'Storm' in Storm Shadow is not in the form of Typhoons...