Russia invades Ukraine

[DustyBin]

There has been some speculation that Ukraine may have a chance at having some Panavia Tornado aircraft as the Luftwaffe decommission them. But I think this may be very premature speculation. As the aircraft that will replace them, Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning IIs were only ordered last December.

Do we know if the RAF Tornados have been stripped and scraped, or are there any that could be made operational again, so could be provided to Ukraine?

What they really need are Grippens, of which Sweden has a large number of early models in storage. Again though, it comes back to the issue of escalation.

There’s any number of aircraft available in theory; the problem is conversion training (not insurmountable) and whether they’re actually useful to Ukraine right now. I’m not convinced Tornados, which are designed to operate from proper airbases and have a two person crew, would be that useful to be honest.

 

[Annetts key]

Well, I’m not convinced they are the ‘right’ aircraft, but at the moment, aside from the training that the U.S.A. is apparently giving to the Ukrainians, currently there doesn’t appear to be any offers of aircraft to Ukraine.

 

[Cloud Strife]

indeed everyone born before 1991 in the whole country was Russian. The country was created by a coup that was accepted by the USSR without challenge. Most children born since will still be entitled to Russian citizenship.. until 2014 there was no issue, and until 2022 I suspect there was inbuilt belief that a war would never happen because Ukrainians and Russians were related. Same is true in Russia, where many Russians have relocated Ukrainian ancestry, and indeed have families on both sides of the border.

Uhhh...what?

The USSR didn't work like that. You had citizenship of the USSR, then you had citizenship of the individual republic that you lived in, plus you had a nationality which was according to your parents nationality. So, a Ukrainian born in the Ukrainian SSR would have had citizenship of the USSR, citizenship of the Ukrainian SSR and they would have had Ukrainian nationality.

The modern state of Ukraine gained independence by agreement of the member states of the Soviet Union. There was no 'coup', but an agreement of the individual republics as part of the Belovezha Accords. The Accords were signed by the three existing republics that formed the USSR in 1922, so it's hard to talk of any 'coup' when these republics all had democratic elections in 1990. In fact, such talk suggests that you have very strong pro-Russian sentiments, because this kind of revisionist history is what you hear from Russians from Russia.

From 1991-2014, there were a lot of issues. Crimea never stopped being a major issue due the failure to grant meaningful autonomy by Ukraine, not least because they (correctly) perceived that the Crimean Parliament couldn't be trusted. The Donbas is another example, and even after 2014, many voices in Mariupol were against the Kyiv government. Russia never really stopped interfering in Ukrainian politics, but until Poroshenko's rule, Russa realised that the Ukrainians were perfectly good at screwing themselves over so they didn't need to do very much.

Ukrainians and Russians are not 'related', they are separate groups of people. There were intermarriages, of course, but they're related in the same way that Czechs and Slovaks are.

If we're considering geographic escalations dont overlook Kaliningrad. One big reason why Lithuania and Poland have to tread carefully.

Kaliningrad is a sitting duck for NATO. One reason why Belarus may be keeping out of the war is because of the implications for the Grodno corner: a blitzkreig attack from Poland along the Kuznica-Druskininkai road and seizing Grodno would be popular among local Poles who could be counted on to sabotage the Belarusian attempts at defence. Securing Grodno and the Kuznica-Druskininkai road would be a huge tactical advantage for NATO, and would more or less secure the Suwałki Gap.

Yup! Up to 1,000 K2 MBTs, nearly 700 K9 self-propelled howitzers and nearly 300 K239 multiple rocket launcher systems from South Korea. Plus around 300 M1 MBTs and 200 odd HIMARS launchers from the US. Jaw dropping numbers. Even if they only get half the equipment currently on order it's transformative and considering the language flying around I suspect they'll go through with getting all of it.

There are serious questions over whether this order can actually be paid for. In short, the Polish government has run up a huge amount of off-budget expenses, and this order may well turn out to be nothing but propaganda. Not to mention that this order has come at the expense of the domestic Polish state-owned military industry, and there are many voices that the (rather inefficient and not effective) domestic industry has been sabotaged here so that the PM and Minister of Defence can pose with weapons.

 

[Trackman]

Seen this on the Sky news website today.
Another mobilisation on the cards to stop people leaving?

from news.sky.com:

Russians may have to reserve time slot before leaving country by car - reports​

Russians who wish to leave the country by car may soon have to reserve dates and times in advance with government officials, according to a new legislative proposal.
The Kremlin's head of transport and infrastructure, Yevgeny Moskvichev, has prepared amendments to the law which provide for a preliminary reservation of the date and time for vehicles to cross the border of Russia, a document seen by Russia's TASS news agency shows.
According to the draft bill, drivers will need to make a reservations online if they wish to cross the border.
The procedure will include drivers providing a list of documents and the specific time they wish to leave.
A section of the document reads: "The passage of vehicles belonging to Russian carriers, foreign carriers, citizens of Russia, foreign citizens, stateless persons and others on sections of highways in order to cross the state border of the Russian Federation is carried out on a reserved date and time in accordance with the procedure established by the government of the Russian Federation."

 

[brad465]

FT reporting that Scholz has u-turned and has now both authorised Germany sending Leopard Tanks, and allowed Poland to send its own:

Subscribe to the Financial Times

A subscription to the Financial Times provides you with the insights and perspective you need to succeed, now.

on.ft.com

Germany is to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, in a move that marks a significant breakthrough in western efforts to bolster Kyiv’s fight against the Russian army.

 

[edwin_m]

Seen this on the Sky news website today.
Another mobilisation on the cards to stop people leaving?

from news.sky.com:

"Draft bill" sounds particularly apposite. No doubt you have to apply for your timeslot by visiting the local recruiting office...

 

[Pete_uk]

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1617868545731465217?t=jqpSEX5jmzp4RcL8Rih9mw&s=19

"Our military pilots traveled to the US. The type of aircraft that will probably be provided to and the corresponding terms for pilot training have already been determined," - Yuriy Ignat, speaker of the Ukrainian Air Force.

F16s for Ukraine?

 

[najaB]

F16s for Ukraine?

That would be my guess - they're cheap, and a lot of them will be available as NATO countries are replacing a lot of them with something newer.

Edit: I found this website which indicates that the USAF alone has over 1,000 in various states of storage (this does include parts donors though).

 

[DustyBin]

That would be my guess - they're cheap, and a lot of them will be available as NATO countries are replacing a lot of them with something newer.

Edit: I found this website which indicates that the USAF alone has over 1,000 in various states of storage (this does include parts donors though).

I think so too. I still think the Gripen would be more suitable, but it's a matter of what's actually available. At the end of the day, F16s will be able to take on any Russian aircraft that venture into Ukrainian airspace (when/if it actually happens), and fire stand-off weapons at Russian positions.

 

[ainsworth74]

F-16 is probably logical if for no other reason it's so ubiquitous amongst NATO, especially European NATO, that spare parts, repairs, training and airframes are going to be easy to come by. Gripen is a great aircraft but only a couple of hundred have been built so its much less readily available (along with training, spares, etc).

 

[najaB]

F-16 is probably logical if for no other reason it's so ubiquitous amongst NATO, especially European NATO, that spare parts, repairs, training and airframes are going to be easy to come by.

At the very least the Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark and Italy have airframes in storage, as per the website linked above.

 

[Killingworth]

It must be a concern, it certainly will be for those on the front lines in Ukraine, that the time it takes to train crews to use this equipment on land and in the air, and then to get it into effective position in strength is many months when it's needed now. Not just using it but maintaining it too.

We mocked the Russian forces at the start but in all wars lessons get learned and tactics changed. Leaders emerge and it seems brutal Wagner tactics are now the leading Russian model. Dealing with them in small formations will be more difficult than the sitting duck old tank formations.

 

[najaB]

We mocked the Russian forces at the start but in all wars lessons get learned and tactics changed. Leaders emerge and it seems brutal Wagner tactics are now the leading Russian model. Dealing with them in small formations will be more difficult than the sitting duck old tank formations.

True. But by the same token, small formations are good for defending territory but you need a mass of men and armour to take a town/city.

 

[Spamcan81]

That would be my guess - they're cheap, and a lot of them will be available as NATO countries are replacing a lot of them with something newer.

Edit: I found this website which indicates that the USAF alone has over 1,000 in various states of storage (this does include parts donors though).

Denmark, Norway and the Netherlands are currently replacing their F-16s with the F-35 but their airforces are not that large so I wonder just how many airframes they can supply. Belgium, Greece and Turkey on the other are keeping hold of theirs as Belgium doesn't start getting the F-35 until 2025, Greece has yet to order and Turkey is currently barred from having it. Depends on how many Ukraine will be offered but I suspect the USA will be the major provider.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 25 Jan 2023 ==

At the very least the Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark and Italy have airframes in storage, as per the website linked above.

Italy leased theirs from the USA until the EF2000 arrived. I'm wondering if these were returned to the USA on their end of service with the AMI.

 

[DustyBin]

It must be a concern, it certainly will be for those on the front lines in Ukraine, that the time it takes to train crews to use this equipment on land and in the air, and then to get it into effective position in strength is many months when it's needed now. Not just using it but maintaining it too.

This assumes of course that training hasn't already began. It may also be that a slightly lower bar is set in regard to the level of training deemed adequate, with "adequate" being the operative word as opposed to say "ideal". Ukraine is after all literally fighting for survival.

 

[najaB]

It may also be that a slightly lower bar is set in regard to the level of training deemed adequate, with "adequate" being the operative word as opposed to say "ideal". Ukraine is after all literally fighting for survival.

While that is true, there isn't an infinite number of 'surplus' airframes available nor aircrew to fly them, so it might well be better in the long run to have a later introduction of an effective force than a rushed introduction and lose both crew and craft unnecessarily. And that's to say nothing of the morale boost that the Russians would receive from shooting them down.

 

[Killingworth]

This assumes of course that training hasn't already began. It may also be that a slightly lower bar is set in regard to the level of training deemed adequate, with "adequate" being the operative word as opposed to say "ideal". Ukraine is after all literally fighting for survival.

I've no doubt training will have started as soon as possible and will be accelerated. The kit then has to be safely transferred to Ukraine and deployed. For security reasons we shouldn't know the details.

I recall how in 1940 the RAF in Malta assembled 6 crated old Gloster Gladiator biplanes to take on more numerous newer Italian aircraft. When needs must it's amazing what can be done with basic kit. The difficulty today is that maintaining modern equipment is a lot more complicated.

 

[ainsworth74]

This assumes of course that training hasn't already began.

There's certainly been reports that Poland has started training Ukrainian's on Leopard 2s (or is about to) and that the US has been training them, most likely, on F-16s (though possibly F-15s):

Poland intends to start training the Ukrainian military to operate Leopard 2 tanks in the coming days, Marcin Przydacz, head of the Bureau of International Policy in the Office of the President of Poland told to TVN24.


Przydacz announced the start of training for Ukrainian tankers, commenting on the words of Polish Deputy Foreign Minister Pawel Jablonski, who said that Warsaw was ready to take “non-standard actions” to force Germany to make a decision on the transfer of the Leopard 2’s to Ukraine.


He explained that such a “non-standard action” could be training the Ukrainian military to operate Leopard 2 tanks.

Poland to start training Ukrainians on Leopard tanks in "non-standard action" for Germany - Euromaidan Press

Poland intends to start training the Ukrainian military to operate Leopard 2 tanks in the coming days, Marcin…

euromaidanpress.com

WASHINGTON — The House approved $100 million in funding to train Ukrainian pilots to use U.S. aircraft as part of the National Defense Authorization Act it passed 329-101 this week.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has asked since March for American-made F-15 and F-16 fighter jets. But Ukrainian pilots accustomed to aging Soviet-era MiG-29s and Sukhoi planes have not been trained to use U.S. fighter jets, a process that could take months.

House authorizes training for Ukrainian pilots to use US aircraft

The House approved $100 million in funding to train Ukrainian pilots to use U.S. aircraft as part of the National Defense Authorization Act it passed 329-101 this week.

www.defensenews.com

 

[Annetts key]

Edit: I found this website which indicates that the USAF alone has over 1,000 in various states of storage (this does include parts donors though).

And some have been converted into QF-16 full scale aerial targets. More about this here.

The QF-16 Full Scale Aerial Target will provide the next generation of combat training and testing for U.S. warfighters. Retired F-16 aircraft are converted into QF-16 aerial targets for the purpose of testing newly developed weapons and tactics. The QF-16 will replace the existing QF-4 fleet, and provide a higher capability, fourth generation aerial target that is more representative of today’s targets and threats.

It should also be noted that the latest version of the F16 is still available to be manufactured.

 

[DustyBin]

While that is true, there isn't an infinite number of 'surplus' airframes available nor aircrew to fly them, so it might well be better in the long run to have a later introduction of an effective force than a rushed introduction and lose both crew and craft unnecessarily. And that's to say nothing of the morale boost that the Russians would receive from shooting them down.

These are good points. I wonder how much training time is dedicated to operating as part of an integrated NATO force, versus simply flying the aircraft effectively? The former is less important to Ukrainian pilots, for now anyway, so there may be the potential to condense the training there.

 

[Annetts key]

For conversion training, which is what existing Ukrainian military pilots are likely getting, I would think it will be about getting to know the aircraft, it’s controls, instrumentation and systems. Then demonstrating that they can fly the aircraft.

Next up will be learning about the defensive and warning systems. Followed by learning about the offensive systems and how to use these effectively.

 

[Killingworth]

Interesting that although the US has now signalled willingness to supply M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine that support is so hedged with reasons and conditions for delay that they're unlikely to be used. Leaves me wondering what they're for if deployment takes so long. It seems they're too complicated to operate. See this AP News report; https://apnews.com/article/us-m1-abrams-tanks-ukraine-russia-249de5c301a9bf83b5f3ac2182076a02 includes

In what would be a reversal, the Biden administration is poised to approve sending M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, U.S. officials said Tuesday, as international reluctance to send tanks to the battlefront against the Russians begins to erode. A decision to send a bit more than 30 tanks could be announced as soon as Wednesday, though it could take months for the tanks to be delivered.

Until now, the U.S. has resisted providing its own M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, citing extensive and complex maintenance and logistical challenges with the high-tech vehicles. Washington believes it would be more productive to send German Leopards since many allies have them and Ukrainian troops would need less training than on the more difficult Abrams.

Just last week, Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl told reporters that the Abrams is a complicated, expensive, difficult to maintain and hard to train on piece of equipment. One thing Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has been very focused on, he said, “is that we should not be providing the Ukrainians systems they can’t repair, they can’t sustain, and that they, over the long term, can’t afford, because it’s not helpful.”

 

[Annetts key]

Interesting that although the US has now signalled willingness to supply M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine that support is so hedged with reasons and conditions for delay that they're unlikely to be used. Leaves me wondering what they're for if deployment takes so long.

For political reasons is my opinion. First so that Germany and the other European nations are not seen as acting ‘alone’ and secondly, so that the U.S.A. can be seen to be part of the ‘club’.

Poland has bought 250 new American M1 Abrams tanks and is supposed to have also obtained some existing stock from the U.S.A, with deliveries already supposed to have started.

I wonder if the Abrams tanks for Ukraine will come from either of these supplies?

 

[edwin_m]

For political reasons is my opinion. First so that Germany and the other European nations are not seen as acting ‘alone’ and secondly, so that the U.S.A. can be seen to be part of the ‘club’.

Poland has bought 250 new American M1 Abrams tanks and is supposed to have also obtained some existing stock from the U.S.A, with deliveries already supposed to have started.

I wonder if the Abrams tanks for Ukraine will come from either of these supplies?

If Poland has started to put the support in place for such vehicles then that's a starting point, as any in Ukraine can be brought across the border if needed. However there still needs to be some support closer to the front line, as well as training of the actual crews. No other European nation has any, though I guess US bases in Europe could provide some backup.

I read somewhere that the US versions of Abrams have a highly classified depleted uranium armour layer, which isn't included on export versions and would be time-consuming exercise to remove from any vehicles that might be at risk of being captured by Russia.

 

[Pete_uk]

As unlikely as it is, F15 s would be better for Ukraine as the two seat variety will allow the pilot to fly while the guy in the back deals with the bombs.

Having seen a Ukrainian Flanker and a Dutch F16 at Fairford the F16 is a rocket propelled rollerskate in comparison.

Good news on the tanks. Ideally the smaller number of types would defend the north while the larger number of types attack the east.

I dream that both aircraft and tanks go into service on mass one day and knock the Russians silly.

 

[coppercapped]

Uhhh...what?

The USSR didn't work like that. You had citizenship of the USSR, then you had citizenship of the individual republic that you lived in, plus you had a nationality which was according to your parents nationality. So, a Ukrainian born in the Ukrainian SSR would have had citizenship of the USSR, citizenship of the Ukrainian SSR and they would have had Ukrainian nationality.

The modern state of Ukraine gained independence by agreement of the member states of the Soviet Union. There was no 'coup', but an agreement of the individual republics as part of the Belovezha Accords. The Accords were signed by the three existing republics that formed the USSR in 1922, so it's hard to talk of any 'coup' when these republics all had democratic elections in 1990. In fact, such talk suggests that you have very strong pro-Russian sentiments, because this kind of revisionist history is what you hear from Russians from Russia.

From 1991-2014, there were a lot of issues. Crimea never stopped being a major issue due the failure to grant meaningful autonomy by Ukraine, not least because they (correctly) perceived that the Crimean Parliament couldn't be trusted. The Donbas is another example, and even after 2014, many voices in Mariupol were against the Kyiv government. Russia never really stopped interfering in Ukrainian politics, but until Poroshenko's rule, Russa realised that the Ukrainians were perfectly good at screwing themselves over so they didn't need to do very much.

Ukrainians and Russians are not 'related', they are separate groups of people. There were intermarriages, of course, but they're related in the same way that Czechs and Slovaks are.



Kaliningrad is a sitting duck for NATO. One reason why Belarus may be keeping out of the war is because of the implications for the Grodno corner: a blitzkreig attack from Poland along the Kuznica-Druskininkai road and seizing Grodno would be popular among local Poles who could be counted on to sabotage the Belarusian attempts at defence. Securing Grodno and the Kuznica-Druskininkai road would be a huge tactical advantage for NATO, and would more or less secure the Suwałki Gap.



There are serious questions over whether this order can actually be paid for. In short, the Polish government has run up a huge amount of off-budget expenses, and this order may well turn out to be nothing but propaganda. Not to mention that this order has come at the expense of the domestic Polish state-owned military industry, and there are many voices that the (rather inefficient and not effective) domestic industry has been sabotaged here so that the PM and Minister of Defence can pose with weapons.

To your last paragraph...I have seen suggestions by other commentators that the purchases from Korea are aimed at a longer term plan. Certainly Korea will deliver off-the-shelf tanks and other equipment, but Polish industry will work with the Koreans on modifying the designs to be more suitable/appropriate to Polish conditions. These models will be built in Poland so (a) giving the Poles their own armour which is not constrained by German 'End User' certificates and (b) updating their manufacturing capacity away from Warsaw Pact technology. The bulk of the tanks on order will be for these models. The Poles will also be free to export the modified designs to third parties as the Koreans are more interested in the money rather than any moral constraints.

It will be interesting to see how this all pans out.

 

[Sm5]

It could be that the Abrams are deployed at the northern borders of Ukraine, as deterrent to a northern attack, so accessing spares and maintenance is easier from Poland.

Leopards could then go south on volume.
Challengers… I dunno, odd ball on the frontline, but I doubt they would be wasted.

F16’s is also interesting.

Much of this talk is months out, from delivery, but equally so is the talk of any second front from Russia.
It’s cold on the front, the thaw is messy.

Plenty of time for sabre rattling on both sides.

 

[DustyBin]

As unlikely as it is, F15 s would be better for Ukraine as the two seat variety will allow the pilot to fly while the guy in the back deals with the bombs.

That’s twice as many aircrew to train though, and I’m not sure how many two seat aircraft Ukraine currently operates? What Ukraine needs is a simple (in fighter jet terms) and reliable aircraft that can launch stand-off weapons, and intercept Russian aircraft if and when required. I think F16s are the right choice (I stand to be corrected however!).

 

[ainsworth74]

As unlikely as it is, F15 s would be better for Ukraine as the two seat variety will allow the pilot to fly while the guy in the back deals with the bombs.

I would agree with @DustyBin, the F-16 is probably still the better bet. Firstly the training requirements will be less for a single seat jet as the twin-seat F-15Es would require the training of the weapon system operator of which the Ukrainian Air Force will only have a handful already (the only twin-seat fast jets they operate are Su-24 Fencers, and they only had a handful before the war) so to be effective they'd have to train from scratch a load of new weapon system operators. Or you could give them single seat F-16s and their entire cadre of existing fast jet pilots (thought probably not all at the same time!) can do conversion courses to F-16s which I would wager would be considerably quicker than having to learn a new role from scratch! I'm also not sure if the Ukrainian's want a bomb truck (which isn't to diminish the F-15E's air superiority capabilities because they are prodigious, but it is primarily a strike fighter) rather than something which is perhaps better suited to doing a bit of everything quite well.

But the main thing for me is, again, numbers and logistics. There are thousands of F-16s including significant numbers of stored airframes in the US as well as hundreds within European NATO many of which are still frontline operational but quite a number of which are either about to be retired or have recently been retired. That means that the airframes are available in significant quantities (far more than Ukraine could probably ever hope to operate) but that also the logistics are already in place in Europe. There are the spare parts, the repair facilities, the training opportunities for mechanics, etc etc.

The F-15E only had a production run measured in the hundreds, none of them are operated by European nations and the USAF only operates a handful of them based in the UK. They aren't going to be available in significant numbers and the logistics are that much trickier as the closest place that might have spares or ability to effect repairs of damaged/worn components is all the way back in the UK. Unlike the F-16 which is operated by the Polish Air Force right next door to Ukraine.

Though this all presupposes that jets will be forthcoming at all. It's taken an achingly long time to get around to supplying MBTs (and even then the numbers are still not what I'd like to see personally!). Whilst I hope that it won't take as long to get to the point where we start making jets available I still can't help but feel we're going to be waiting some time...

 

[Killingworth]

I would agree with @DustyBin, the F-16 is probably still the better bet. Firstly the training requirements will be less for a single seat jet as the twin-seat F-15Es would require the training of the weapon system operator of which the Ukrainian Air Force will only have a handful already (the only twin-seat fast jets they operate are Su-24 Fencers, and they only had a handful before the war) so to be effective they'd have to train from scratch a load of new weapon system operators. Or you could give them single seat F-16s and their entire cadre of existing fast jet pilots (thought probably not all at the same time!) can do conversion courses to F-16s which I would wager would be considerably quicker than having to learn a new role from scratch! I'm also not sure if the Ukrainian's want a bomb truck (which isn't to diminish the F-15E's air superiority capabilities because they are prodigious, but it is primarily a strike fighter) rather than something which is perhaps better suited to doing a bit of everything quite well.

But the main thing for me is, again, numbers and logistics. There are thousands of F-16s including significant numbers of stored airframes in the US as well as hundreds within European NATO many of which are still frontline operational but quite a number of which are either about to be retired or have recently been retired. That means that the airframes are available in significant quantities (far more than Ukraine could probably ever hope to operate) but that also the logistics are already in place in Europe. There are the spare parts, the repair facilities, the training opportunities for mechanics, etc etc.

The F-15E only had a production run measured in the hundreds, none of them are operated by European nations and the USAF only operates a handful of them based in the UK. They aren't going to be available in significant numbers and the logistics are that much trickier as the closest place that might have spares or ability to effect repairs of damaged/worn components is all the way back in the UK. Unlike the F-16 which is operated by the Polish Air Force right next door to Ukraine.

Though this all presupposes that jets will be forthcoming at all. It's taken an achingly long time to get around to supplying MBTs (and even then the numbers are still not what I'd like to see personally!). Whilst I hope that it won't take as long to get to the point where we start making jets available I still can't help but feel we're going to be waiting some time...

The biggest issues aren't just availability of aircraft. Rapid training of sufficient pilots and ground crews to service them will be vital and they need secure bases from which to fly.