Russia invades Ukraine

[adc82140]

One only has to look at what comes out of the Duma.

The big question though is do all these Russian politicians really say what they are thinking, or are they saying the "correct" thing for fear of poisoning or defenestration?

I would expect at this point Kyiv to be the victim of an air assault as a reprisal. If that doesn't happen, we have to conclude that Russia really is running low on missiles.

 

[yorksrob]

The big question though is do all these Russian politicians really say what they are thinking, or are they saying the "correct" thing for fear of poisoning or defenestration?

I would expect at this point Kyiv to be the victim of an air assault as a reprisal. If that doesn't happen, we have to conclude that Russia really is running low on missiles.

I think they are the United Russia establishment and mostly true believers unfortunately.

 

[DustyBin]

Reading the early analysis, it's highly unlikely to have been a missile. More likely the bridge was rigged with explosives. The Russians probably know this, but it's far less embarrassing to blame a truck bomb.

I agree based on what I’ve seen.

I’m sure there’ll be some tempting targets for Russian reprisals; schools, hospitals, residential blocks etc.

What’s clear is that Ukraine can strike anywhere within its own territory (and beyond if it wants to). I’m struggling to believe that outside of a small group of deluded nutters there’s much support within Russia for the continuation of this pointless war. We can only hope that Putin, and crucially his inner circle, are removed at some point, preferably sooner rather than later. Either that or he withdraws his forces and brings the war to an end, but I can’t see that happening unfortunately.

 

[Loppylugs]

Dearest Vlad,

May I wish you the the most explosive day possible for your 70th birthday tomorrow.

Yours.......a well wisher

I was only one day out

 

[najaB]

I would expect at this point Kyiv to be the victim of an air assault as a reprisal.

I believe that Kyiv has received several air defence systems of late, including at least one or two captured S-1 Pantsir systems (thanks Vlad!), so is much better prepared for such an attack as they were early in the war.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 8 Oct 2022 ==

Returning to the attack on the bridge, the "truck bomb" idea doesn't hold water. Here is a still frame taken a moment before the explosion:

The truck I've labelled A is past the section that collapsed and is already heading up the incline, so it would have to be the truck I've labelled B. However, if we look at a frame as the explosion happens:



It's still clearly visible. I suppose it *could* have been truck A but then you'd expect the damage to be much further up the incline.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Yes - Putin can't just absorb this and carry on as though nothing had happened. He is likely to do something big, although he may take his time.

First reaction: Wow.

Much will depend on how Russia actually responds. Putin's grasp on power will have taken a serious hit, and if he really has been micromanaging things, then it's clear that he's out of his depth.

From a military point of view, I can only admire the Ukrainian forces for this one. I do wonder how they did it, especially given that all vehicles are scanned before entering the bridge.

 

[philosopher]

The question I always have about regime change is why a replacement would be any better? It’s not like we don’t have two precedents for that in the UK (admittedly not warmongers )

This is a concern as there are some hardliners within Russia such as Chechen warlord Ramzan Kadyrov who make Putin seem almost sane.

However if Putin were to be overthrown, I think it would most likely be from a military coup d’etat as the military I suspect are best placed to remove Putin from power. If the military took over I think they would negotiate to end the war to avoid further weakening Russia’s military. I get the impression most of the hardliners are civilian politicians rather than in the military.

​

 

[adc82140]

How can Russia respond? They've been called out on their nuclear rhetoric this week, and have been back pedalling on that somewhat (Russian state media said that Kadyrov had a mild ticking off for his comments, in reality it was probably a right royal b*llocking). A nuclear response as discussed before would have limited military advantage anyway- "high risk, low benefit" is what one analyst said this week.

It's also interesting that Russia is pushing (currently) the terrorist line, rather than Ukrainian state involvement. The criticism of Ukraine from the Kremlin so far has been limited to accusing them of gloating. That could of course change.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Is it bad that my first reaction to this latest news was "Here we, here we, here we ****ing go!!!!"?

No. I get nothing from watching civilians die, whichever of the two countries they are from. War is tragic.

 

[Cloud Strife]

How can Russia respond?

I wouldn't be shocked if they blow up Zaporizhzhia NPP out of spite now. But even that has very limited consequences, as a VVER reactor simply won't explode in the way that the Chernobyl RBMK did. And if they do that, they'll become even more of a pariah state while the Kursk/Smolensk reactors wlll also be in play.

I expect to see more targeting of civilians, but I don't see any large scale response.

 

[kristiang85]

From a military point of view, I can only admire the Ukrainian forces for this one. I do wonder how they did it, especially given that all vehicles are scanned before entering the bridge.

It must have been via water.

 

[w0033944]

I see reports on Twitter that the Russian rail authority claims that trains are now running over the rail bridge.

 

[dgl]

I see reports on Twitter that the Russian rail authority claims that trains are now running over the rail bridge.

Wouldn't want to be those drivers, it clearly sustained severe damage, but I bet Russia simply do not care and the average Russian wouldn't know how much damage there is to the bridge, I bet a second strike now would be fatal for the bridge.

 

[w0033944]

Wouldn't want to be those drivers, it clearly sustained severe damage, but I bet Russia simply do not care and the average Russian wouldn't know how much damage there is to the bridge, I bet a second strike now would be fatal for the bridge.

Agreed.

 

[brad465]

Wouldn't want to be those drivers, it clearly sustained severe damage, but I bet Russia simply do not care and the average Russian wouldn't know how much damage there is to the bridge, I bet a second strike now would be fatal for the bridge.

A sequel to The Cassandra Crossing in the making...

 

[Cloud Strife]

It must have been via water.

If it was, then there are no words for the sheer incompetence of Russia. It is true that a substantial amount of shipping goes under the bridge, but it's still not an excuse for such an allegedly well guarded bridge.

In terms of traffic on the bridges, this is a typical Russian approach: they simply don't care about individual life and never have done.

Either way, I wouldn't be surprised if Russia now commits substantial amounts of troops to defending Crimea at the cost of the other annexed territories.

 

[DC1989]

There's video footage of trains crossing the bridge. How on earth have they managed to get that repaired in 12 hours?

 

[brad465]

Something I've just learned is that the Kerch Bridge was built at least partially by Dutch companies violating sanctions and covering up evidence, with investigations ongoing. Considering the victims of the MH17 disaster were overwhelmingly Dutch, this just shows how in the world of business there are companies that put profit before morals (and whoever built that bridge probably are not the only offenders in the last 8 years):

https://twitter.com/AlyaShandra/status/1578728585816600577

Russia managed to build the Crimean bridge only thanks to a bunch of Dutch companies that violated sanctions to help Russia & concealed the evidence. The investigation is still ongoing, none have been punished. My report about them and others:

https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/10/08/report-crimean-sanctions-violations-monitoring-and-enforcement/

 

[yorksrob]

Something I've just learned is that the Kerch Bridge was built at least partially by Dutch companies violating sanctions and covering up evidence, with investigations ongoing. Considering the victims of the MH17 disaster were overwhelmingly Dutch, this just shows how in the world of business there are companies that put profit before morals (and whoever built that bridge probably are not the only offenders in the last 8 years):

https://twitter.com/AlyaShandra/status/1578728585816600577

That'll be a tricky one for the Dutch government to sort out !

 

[Pete_uk]

There are reports from Moscow that a branch of the military has sealed of the centre of the city. It may turn out to be nothing but...

'Arrests of the military began in Moscow.

Traffic in the city center was stopped.

Units of Russian Guards Elite, Dzerzhynskyi division, entered the city, - Chief Intelligence Service of Ukraine.

Multiple arrests, detainments and blockings of military are reported.'

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1578755677321060353?t=LEuvHlYI5ijKhQXCFzPvvA&s=19

 

[Cloud Strife]

There's video footage of trains crossing the bridge. How on earth have they managed to get that repaired in 12 hours?

It's probably not from the Kerch Bridge. One of the videos shows a train operating somewhere with dual gauge track, which isn't the case there.

It may turn out to be nothing but...

It seems to have been rather exaggerated. I imagine that arrests were carried out, but nothing more than that. The more interesting question is who was arrested: if it was military figures, then morale in the armed forces will drop even further, especially if it becomes clear that the intelligence community is in charge.

What seems to be going unnoticed today is that Ukraine has also pounded yet more critical infrastructure for Russia.

 

[adc82140]

Rather unfortunate wording from the Russian Tass agency about the first train to run :

The first test run on the rails came off successfully

Trains permitted to go on Crimea bridge — Transport Ministry

The first test run on the rails came off successfully

tass.com

 

[najaB]

Just saw a report that a mechanic appears to have been smoking around two Tu-22Ms at an airbase inside Russia...

Russia is attacked on its territory. Media and several Twitter accounts claim that today, October 7th, a kamikaze drone exploded at the Shaikovka Air Force Base in Kaluga Oblast. According to The War Zone source, the drone hit two Tu-22M Backfire bombers. They cannot be recovered, sources say, in the US.

170 miles from Moscow, a kamikaze hit two Tu-22M bombers (Updated)

Russia is attacked on its territory. Media and several Twitter accounts claim that today, October 7th, a kamikaze drone exploded at the Shaikovka Air Force Base

bulgarianmilitary.com

 

[nw1]

That's a very specific time period, as Andropov was only General Secretary for about 15 months, and he was dying for about 12 of them. Mind you his successor, Chernenko only did 13 months before dying (having been in very poor health for a long time).

Strangely Chernenko is the first name I remember first hand as a Soviet head. Immediately preceded Gorbachev, I think. Wasn't he in about 1984? I remember the name being on the news a lot though cannot remember the detail.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Just saw a report that a mechanic appears to have been smoking around two Tu-22Ms at an airbase inside Russia...

The thing that I just cannot comprehend is just how poor the Russian air defences are. I understand areas being hit near the border, but this base is deep within Russia. The Ukrainian strategy of killing Russia via death by a thousand cuts is clearly working, but what on earth is going on in Russia that they can't even stop a kamikaze drone?

As for the railway bridge, there's still no evidence that this train even ran. There's footage of the ferry being pushed into service, but nothing of the alleged 15 car test train.

 

[Broucek]

As for the railway bridge, there's still no evidence that this train even ran. There's footage of the ferry being pushed into service, but nothing of the alleged 15 car test train.

It's pretty desperate if they're lying about something so easy to disprove..

BTW the Ukrainian PO has issued a comemerative stamp of the bridge on fire...

 

[endicomark69@g]

The thing that I just cannot comprehend is just how poor the Russian air defences are. I understand areas being hit near the border, but this base is deep within Russia. The Ukrainian strategy of killing Russia via death by a thousand cuts is clearly working, but what on earth is going on in Russia that they can't even stop a kamikaze drone?

As for the railway bridge, there's still no evidence that this train even ran. There's footage of the ferry being pushed into service, but nothing of the alleged 15 car test train.

Russian Air Defences have been overestimated by orders of magnitude since Vietnam era propaganda made them seem impregnable. They are very good in some locations (around Moscow unsurprisingly) and reputedly pretty poor in vast areas that aren't Moscow - including some areas surprisingly close to The West.

It wouldn't take much sophisticated effort to get something small into an area like this one - Russian Radar being as patchy as everything else they do especially once over the border "fence" - if they do detect intrusion they usually have to try and shift quickly to Airborne detection as there's simply too much horizon to cover with Ground-based.

And the comment about the Smoking Airman is just as likely as an actually air/drone strike. Russian Aviation still has a shockingly high "accident rate" while on the ground.

As to The Bridge, no way they've repaired that track and proved the integrity of the structure yet. Petrochemical fire like that will have ruined everything under it to at least the trackbed, and require replacement at the very least.

 

[Killingworth]

As to The Bridge, no way they've repaired that track and proved the integrity of the structure yet. Petrochemical fire like that will have ruined everything under it to at least the trackbed, and require replacement at the very least.

There's a war on.

One carriageway of the road will probably be repaired very quickly and used for light traffic until it's more thoroughly checked.

The eastbound railway track was not facing the explosion so is probably not as badly damaged as the westbound below the blazing train. Burning petrochemicals may have run into the sea below rather than spread far along and across the bridge. We can see the whole train wasn't engulfed. Slow speed running may be possible on that eastbound track fairly soon. I'm sure if I was a Russian railway engineer I'd be under some pressure to ensure it is!

 

[coppercapped]

Russian Air Defences have been overestimated by orders of magnitude since Vietnam era propaganda made them seem impregnable. They are very good in some locations (around Moscow unsurprisingly) and reputedly pretty poor in vast areas that aren't Moscow - including some areas surprisingly close to The West.

It wouldn't take much sophisticated effort to get something small into an area like this one - Russian Radar being as patchy as everything else they do especially once over the border "fence" - if they do detect intrusion they usually have to try and shift quickly to Airborne detection as there's simply too much horizon to cover with Ground-based.

Remember this? A teenage German pilot flew a Cessna 172 over Russia and landed in Red Square in Moscow in 1987, fuller details in this BBC story https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-20609795

And the comment about the Smoking Airman is just as likely as an actually air/drone strike. Russian Aviation still has a shockingly high "accident rate" while on the ground.

As to The Bridge, no way they've repaired that track and proved the integrity of the structure yet. Petrochemical fire like that will have ruined everything under it to at least the trackbed, and require replacement at the very least.

 

[Annetts key]

Returning to the attack on the bridge, the "truck bomb" idea doesn't hold water.

The direction of the explosion, the flying sparks and debris, and the visible damage after the event all rule out a truck or road vehicle bomb.

The road deck sections are much weaker for upward forces. As they are designed to cope with downward forces. IMHO, it was explosions from below or from below and to the side that caused this damage to the road decks (three sections have been damaged). The resulting shower of shrapnel pierced multiple fuel/oil tanker wagons, igniting the multiple fuel/oil leaks hence the multiple fires.

I see reports on Twitter that the Russian rail authority claims that trains are now running over the rail bridge.

Keep in mind that the railway is double track (two lines). If the tanker (fuel/oil) train has not derailed or is otherwise foul of the adjacent line, it’s possible to run trains on the other line.

However, the structure still needs to be inspected and assessed to determine how badly it is damaged and if any weight or speed restrictions are needed. Assuming that it can actually be used safely.

The high temperatures will have changed the properties of the steel used for the structural elements of the bridge sections. This will have weakened it.

Of course, Russia may not care about safety…