Russia invades Ukraine

[Trog]

I share this view too, some form of settlement even if it includes Ukraine handing over Crimea would be preferable to years of war and the death and destruction associated with it.

An idea that worked really well in Czechoslovakia so why not try it again.

Could well ensure peace in our time.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Hold it right there. That's Moldova we're talking about.

Indeed. It's a piece of Moldova that is under Russian military occupation, although on a very passive level in terms of day to day governance.

Outlandish. But not impossible, and possibly not improbable.

I was trying to figure out how strong the Russian and Transnistrian forces are. Wikipedia claims a total strength of 25,500 for the Transnistrian Army. The Russian 14th Army is of an unknown strength, but it's hard to believe that this is more than 2000 or so. It seems to me that a joint Ukraine/Moldova attack would likely end in a rapid Moldovan victory, although it seems to me that a total embargo on Transnistria would probably achieve the same thing given that Russia is unlikely and unable to do anything now.

it's more like Kosovo (where I've also been) in being a breakaway region that I understand is happy with the situation

They are perfectly happy with it, but it's still very much the case that it's under Russian military occupation as recognised by the Council of Europe. Kosovo is quite a good analogy, as they were quite happy with the NATO/UN occupation. Moldova and Ukraine will surely want the Russians gone however, and the Russian position there will become increasingly weak.

From the Transnistrian point of view, there is a point that peaceful (re)unification with Moldova within a federal state might be preferable to war, especially if it would mean keeping their distinct character.

 

[gingerheid]

An idea that worked really well in Czechoslovakia so why not try it again.

Could well ensure peace in our time.

I completely agree. It's quite likely that if they get a clear and effectively unchallanged hold over Crimea for 8 or so years then they'd be happy with that and wouldn't then get over-confident and try to grab anything else.

 

[Noddy]

Surely that's their problem?

I’m glad you weren’t in charge when another mad dictator started invading Eastern European countries.

Oh, we couldn't possibly obtain vital resources from places with questionable morals could we........oh wait, we have been doing exactly that for DECADES!

Doesn’t make it right though does it?

 

[Giugiaro]

An idea that worked really well in Czechoslovakia so why not try it again.
Could well ensure peace in our time.

Indeed.

✂️ Hitler is invading the rest of Czechoslovakia

29 seconds · Clipped by TPMIRANDA · Original video "WW2 - OverSimplified (Part 1)" by OverSimplified

youtube.com

 

[simonw]

The UK has a lot of Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) terminals where LNG is converted back to gaseous natural gas. The UK I think is therefore importing LNG, converting into gaseous natural gas and then exporting that gas through pipelines to the rest of Europe.

Many European countries do not have much capacity to convert LNG into gaseous natural gas.

Actually we don't have lots of LNG terminals and those we do have don't have a huge amount of storage attached.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Something that has just come to my attention: only Turkey and Hungary haven't ratified the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO. While Erdogan is likely waiting for political purposes (i.e. trying to extract concessions), Orban has just refused (and Fidesz voted against) the opposition's proposal to hold a vote tomorrow.

Makes you wonder, doesn't it? Certainly replacing Hungary with Ukraine would make sense!

 

[simonw]

I've been hearing the UK is likely to experience gas shortages, affecting the electricity supply, over the winter. I've also heard we have been exporting tons of gas. Sorry, why the hell are we exporting gas and then leaving this country with a shortage??? It's disgusting. I'm getting a bit fed up with this whole Ukraine thing. Why should people in this country suffer because of something going on in a county thousands of miles away that has sfa to do with us? When is this country going to stop sticking our nose into areas that don't concern us, and then people here having to deal with the consequences? It's pretty certain that if we hadn't kept sticking our nose in where it didn't belong none of the terrorist attacks over the past 20 years would have happened!

The fact that we are exporting gas atm has little or no impact on winter availability.

 

[brad465]

Something that has just come to my attention: only Turkey and Hungary haven't ratified the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO. While Erdogan is likely waiting for political purposes (i.e. trying to extract concessions), Orban has just refused (and Fidesz voted against) the opposition's proposal to hold a vote tomorrow.

Makes you wonder, doesn't it? Certainly replacing Hungary with Ukraine would make sense!

The way things are heading Orban will start to run out of friends if we're lucky: the EU have finally started withholding funding, and the way the war is heading Putin won't be around much longer to support Orban either.

 

[najaB]

Surely that's their problem?

I think you've missed the point. The gas that we have 'exported' was LNG that was imported into the UK specifically to be converted back to gaseous form and sent to Europe for them to fill their storage. We don't have much in the way of storage, and what storage we have is pretty much full - so we've helped Europe while not affecting our position one jot.

 

[GS250]

Oh, we couldn't possibly obtain vital resources from places with questionable morals could we........oh wait, we have been doing exactly that for DECADES!

Yes an obvious one that begins with C but does do a mean take away......

 

[takno]

Yes an obvious one that begins with C but does do a mean take away......

Columbia?

 

[brad465]

Columbia?

I think he was referring to China (unless you're having a laugh).

 

[dgl]

You see, just because someone has a lot of wealth, doesn't mean they also have a lot of intelligence:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1576969255031296000

There's a reply to Elon from Ukraine's Ambassador to Germany, telling him literally to F off!
Having money does not make one intelligent, at least with people like Bill Gates there was intelligences well as fistfuls of cash.

 

[DC1989]

Amazing just how many people seem to want to give away other people's countries. All in the name of wanting 'peace' of course.

I'm sure if someone asked Elon to give them half of his Tesla shares or they'd start to rape and murder his friends and family he'd do it. Gotta have peace innit?

 

[duncanp]

Whilst formally ceding Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk ...etc. to Russia might seem superficially attractive to some people as part of a peace deal, no-one shouldn't be under any illusions that such a deal would be an end to the matter.

Russia would then use the next 5 - 10 years to re-arm and re-equip their army, and bide their time waiting for an opportunity to further invade Ukraine or some other former Iron Curtain country.

 

[najaB]

Columbia?

Mandatory pedantry: Columbia is the name of several cities, Colombia is the country.

 

[Annetts key]

I've been hearing the UK is likely to experience gas shortages, affecting the electricity supply, over the winter. I've also heard we have been exporting tons of gas. Sorry, why the hell are we exporting gas and then leaving this country with a shortage??? It's disgusting. I'm getting a bit fed up with this whole Ukraine thing. Why should people in this country suffer because of something going on in a county thousands of miles away that has sfa to do with us? When is this country going to stop sticking our nose into areas that don't concern us, and then people here having to deal with the consequences? It's pretty certain that if we hadn't kept sticking our nose in where it didn't belong none of the terrorist attacks over the past 20 years would have happened!

Maybe you should get your facts right.

Every year the grid operators carry out an assessment of capacity. And run through various scenarios. Some include the worse case possibilities of an extremely long cold spell of weather with a number of electricity sources / power stations off line. Hence they report that there is a possibility of problems. They produced a similar report last year that the media went mad with as well.

Yes we export gas. However, as we no longer produce enough gas for our own use, this exported gas is just gas that was originally imported. That’s what happens with pipelines that interconnect us between various countries. It’s been quite some time since we became dependent on imports. More in the document at this link

The UK produces natural gas indigenously from the North Sea in the form of methane; this gas is transported via well-established pipeline infrastructure inland and to key trading partners. Chart 1 shows that indigenous production of natural gas exceeded demand in the late 1990s, but since then has been on a general trend of decline before stabilising at around a third of the peak in 2013. Demand has also followed a general downward path since 2005, but in 2019 production could have met only around half of demand.

As expected, imports have increased to meet demand as indigenous production decreased. The UK began importing LNG for commercial use in 2005. Imports of LNG were minimal until 2008 when they increased rapidly and peaked in 2011 since then LNG imports have fluctuated. From 2010 natural gas imports by pipeline and of LNG are negatively correlated, meaning that LNG is used to make up shortfalls in supply when pipeline flows are disrupted. The UK exports a small amount of natural gas, the majority of this by pipeline. The UK does not produce LNG, so any exports of LNG were previously imported - this is called a reload.

We also import and export electricity. Often doing both at the same time.

It’s unlikely that all the circumstances will occur that will result in any reduction of gas or electricity to residential customers.

For the “whole Ukraine thing” you should direct your anger and frustration at Russia, specifically at Putin.

Part of the reason that we, the U.K. are supporting Ukraine is because we gave an undertaking to them as part of an agreement where they decommissioned all their nuclear weapons. This is one of the “Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances”. But mainly we are helping them because our government wants to support Ukraine (which is a democratic country) against the illegal invasion by Russia.

Or would you rather no country helps any others when they are invaded? If so maybe you should look into the help that we, the U.K. were given during say the Falklands war (although at the time very little of this help was made public) or WW2.

The vast majority of terrorist attacks in the U.K. were carried out by groups associated with the Northern Ireland troubles. The remainder have been mostly domestic terrorists.

The physical attacks on the U.K. by Russia were carried out by representatives of the Russian state. None of which have or had anything to do with the war in Ukraine as they all predate current events.

Hence ‘sticking our nose in’ is not relevant.

 

[Bletchleyite]

There's a reply to Elon from Ukraine's Ambassador to Germany, telling him literally to F off!
Having money does not make one intelligent, at least with people like Bill Gates there was intelligences well as fistfuls of cash.

I think he is actually right that that sort of thing is the only even vaguely likely chance of peace. The other two likely outcomes are WW III or a continuous insurgency rather like another Afghanistan and Ukrainian refugees unable to return for generations.

It is not palatable, but in a war you don't always get what you want even if you morally should.

And other than where you have natural geographic boundaries like islands, nation states are all a bit arbitrary anyway, with wobbly borders which have come about via centuries of conflict. See the likes of Alsace-Lorraine vs. Elsass-Lothringen.

 

[yorksrob]

I think he is actually right that that sort of thing is the only even vaguely likely chance of peace. The other two likely outcomes are WW III or a continuous insurgency rather like another Afghanistan and Ukrainian refugees unable to return for generations.

It is not palatable, but in a war you don't always get what you want even if you morally should.

And other than where you have natural geographic boundaries like islands, nation states are all a bit arbitrary anyway, with wobbly borders which have come about via centuries of conflict. See the likes of Alsace-Lorraine vs. Elsass-Lothringen.

I think that at the moment, Ukraine are better off just pressing ahead whilst they've got Russia on the back foot.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I think that at the moment, Ukraine are better off just pressing ahead whilst they've got Russia on the back foot.

I wish them luck, but at some point Putin will (in my view) lose his patience and drop a nuke on Kyiv, and then the game has changed and Russia will win, with an Afghanistan style insurgency for tens of years and the country basically wasteland. Even if they then withdraw once he pops his clogs, it's a Pyrrhic victory.

Nuclear weapons are the problem in all this and will mean we* have to accept a sub-optimal solution - it's simply a question of how many more have to die before we do. Without them NATO (or if not NATO then the US and UK unilaterally) would have chucked everything conventional they had at it and he'd have been out within weeks.

If nothing else this is all sadly proving the value of a nuclear deterrent.

* I'm considering us and the Ukrainians as morally on the same side.

 

[najaB]

I wish them luck, but at some point Putin will (in my view) lose his patience and drop a nuke on Kyiv, and then the game has changed and Russia will win, with an Afghanistan style insurgency for tens of years and the country basically wasteland. Even if they then withdraw once he pops his clogs, it's a Pyrrhic victory.

This is highly unlikely to happen. His generals are already pissed with him (note that another Deputy Minister of Defence was fired last week, adding to the long list of those either fired or killed).

The most likely outcome of an order to deploy nuclear weapons is Putin falling from an upper-floor Kremlin window.

 

[ymbongo]

His generals are already pissed with him

That's down to the excessive vodka consumption.

 

[Herefordian]

I think he is actually right that that sort of thing is the only even vaguely likely chance of peace. The other two likely outcomes are WW III or a continuous insurgency rather like another Afghanistan and Ukrainian refugees unable to return for generations.

It is not palatable, but in a war you don't always get what you want even if you morally should.

And other than where you have natural geographic boundaries like islands, nation states are all a bit arbitrary anyway, with wobbly borders which have come about via centuries of conflict. See the likes of Alsace-Lorraine vs. Elsass-Lothringen.

Appeasement doesn't work.

There's nothing to stop Russia rebuilding and coming back again for more in the future.

Officially ceding Crimea to Russia would, in essence, be rewarding them for the atrocities they've committed.

As it stands, Ukraine has Russia on the ropes in the east and south.

Ukraine should not have to, and will not, accept the loss of an inch of their internationally recognised sovereign territory.

I wish them luck, but at some point Putin will (in my view) lose his patience and drop a nuke on Kyiv, and then the game has changed and Russia will win, with an Afghanistan style insurgency for tens of years and the country basically wasteland. Even if they then withdraw once he pops his clogs, it's a Pyrrhic victory.

Nuclear weapons are the problem in all this and will mean we* have to accept a sub-optimal solution - it's simply a question of how many more have to die before we do. Without them NATO (or if not NATO then the US and UK unilaterally) would have chucked everything conventional they had at it and he'd have been out within weeks.

If nothing else this is all sadly proving the value of a nuclear deterrent.

* I'm considering us and the Ukrainians as morally on the same side.

Not a chance in a month of Sundays.

 

[Giugiaro]

The Kremlin should be aware that from the moment a nuke lands in Ukraine, they'll only have Minsk on their side.

It's a "Pandora's Box" that not even China wants to see opened.

However, I know of a certain Trump who might want such a thing to happen. He will be like "I told you, that's why I made those low yield nukes you goddamn ANTIFAs!"

 

[DynamicSpirit]

The Kremlin should be aware that from the moment a nuke lands in Ukraine, they'll only have Minsk on their side.

To be fair. Minsk, Pyongyang, Tehran and Damascus. And maybe the individual admiration of a certain Mr. D. Trump.

Probably almost no-one else though

 

[GS250]

Apparently a 'nuclear train' is heading towards Ukraine. Read into that what you may.

Sounds like the start of that film with George Clooney in.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Apparently a 'nuclear train' is heading towards Ukraine. Read into that what you may.

Sounds like the start of that film with George Clooney in.

Interestingly only the Torygraph appears to be reporting that. I don't know what can be read into that fact.

 

[ainsworth74]

Apparently a 'nuclear train' is heading towards Ukraine. Read into that what you may.

I've not read anyone, other than certain sections of the media, that are getting particularly concerned by this. Indeed there's one suggestion floating that the equipment (which seems to be mainly trucks and similar) has been appropriated to support the war effort rather than anything sinister. I'll start getting anxious when Western Intelligence agencies/leaders start saying that there are indications that Russia is taking tactical nukes out of storage and mating them with delivery systems.

 

[Annetts key]

I wish them luck, but at some point Putin will (in my view) lose his patience and drop a nuke on Kyiv…

And what makes you think that Russia will manage to either get a so called tactical nuclear weapon out of storage and ready, or get an ICBM ready for launch without the Western Nuclear powers noticing?

The U.S.A. has already warned Russia in public, and no doubt has made it very, very clear via diplomatic channels how serious the use of any nuclear weapons would be.

If Russia is having difficulties fighting Ukraine, imagine how fearful the Russians are over the consequences if the U.S.A. and the other Western countries attack them directly. Putin is not completely daft. He and the Russian military know that if Russia uses a nuclear weapon, that’s the end for any prospect of Putin’s Russia.

Hence there is absolutely no possible advantage in Russia using any nuclear weapons, period.

Putin and the other Russian mouthpieces keep going on about nuclear weapons for three reasons: to try to scare the people and governments in western countries, for internal domestic consumption and to keep the internal hardliners on side.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 4 Oct 2022 ==

Apparently a 'nuclear train' is heading towards Ukraine. Read into that what you may.

What kind of nuclear train. I’ve seen British nuclear trains many, many times… And technically, all trains are nuclear, as in they are all made up of atoms

If only one source is reporting this, I don’t think it’s more than attention grabbing headlines.