Russia invades Ukraine

[yorksrob]

Yep. Russia's rich and powerful may not care about losing a few hundred thousand young men. But they may well care about losing their palaces, wealth, family, environment and inevitably their lives.

Indeed, Putin's bonkers, but I doubt he's that bonkers.

 

[DustyBin]

Is anyone else getting genuinely worried about where this is going now?

I don't mean that in "I saw the capitilised headline on the Sun website" kind of way, I mean in a "I'm aware of the wider issues" kind of way, and I'm getting more and more concerned he will resort to nuclear weapons and there is a real chance of a NATO-Russia nuclear exchange. I fully support Ukraine and I fully believe we need to support them. But I'm starting to worry Putin will do anything at this point, an injured cornered animal is at its most dangerous and all that. He's got his version of reality where these parts of Ukraine are now Russia, he can claim Ukraine threatens Russian territory, he can hit the red button.

And then where do we stand? If NATO doesn't respond, its the ultimate bluff he pulls and he can do this again and again until he reforms the USSR. If NATO responds conventionally to clear him from Ukraine and he doesn't resort to nuclear strikes on NATO nations then that'll be a decent outcome. But if NATO responds, either with nuclear weapons or Putin reacts with a nuclear strike on a NATO state then that is nuclear war in Europe. I'm also concerned that Vlad really hates us specifically, all the "Anglo-Saxon" stuff and that if he wanted to pick a NATO state to hit it would be the UK.

Or maybe the anxiety is running away with me.



Crossing my fingers for Chechnya to go, a rebellion in Grozny would be near fatal to Putin, politically if not literally.

Yes and no. There's certainly nothing good about the situation (i.e. the annexation) but I'm not sure it changes much materially. It smacks of a good news story to sell to the gathered elites (who in the main looked far from convinced) and legitimises, from a Russian perspective, the use of conscripts in a "defensive" role. The whole thing is a sham and a charade and everybody, Putin included, knows it. Russian forces don't even occupy all of the annexed territory which makes the whole thing even more farcical.

What is slightly concerning is that a diplomatic resolution seems further away now than at any point during the conflict. I can't see any available "off-ramp" that doesn't involve making unpalatable concessions to Putin. He and importantly his cronies need to be removed from within, but there no guarantee when or even if that will happen.

Remember that he may well particularly hate us, but we're one of only three NATO countries who can and will respond instantly to an attack. It would be a suicidal move, and that's putting aside the fact that it almost certainly wouldn't only be us who responded.

 

[najaB]

I understand why Ukraine have applied to join NATO, but my main worry is the conflict spiralling out of control should NATO accept them in.

NATO are not going to accept Ukraine while they are engaged in a war, it's against the rules.

 

[DustyBin]

I understand why Ukraine have applied to join NATO, but my main worry is the conflict spiralling out of control should NATO accept them in.

I’m scared as to how this is going to go.

Ukraine isn't going to join NATO whilst this conflict is ongoing, I'm confident of that. If *NATO had any intention of joining in they'd just do it, they wouldn't allow themselves to be dragged in by default by accepting an at-war new member.

*It wouldn't actually be NATO, it would be NATO members acting individually but in a coordinated manner. (You could argue that's defacto NATO of course....).

 

[Class 33]

Is anyone else getting genuinely worried about where this is going now?

I don't mean that in "I saw the capitilised headline on the Sun website" kind of way, I mean in a "I'm aware of the wider issues" kind of way, and I'm getting more and more concerned he will resort to nuclear weapons and there is a real chance of a NATO-Russia nuclear exchange. I fully support Ukraine and I fully believe we need to support them. But I'm starting to worry Putin will do anything at this point, an injured cornered animal is at its most dangerous and all that. He's got his version of reality where these parts of Ukraine are now Russia, he can claim Ukraine threatens Russian territory, he can hit the red button.

And then where do we stand? If NATO doesn't respond, its the ultimate bluff he pulls and he can do this again and again until he reforms the USSR. If NATO responds conventionally to clear him from Ukraine and he doesn't resort to nuclear strikes on NATO nations then that'll be a decent outcome. But if NATO responds, either with nuclear weapons or Putin reacts with a nuclear strike on a NATO state then that is nuclear war in Europe. I'm also concerned that Vlad really hates us specifically, all the "Anglo-Saxon" stuff and that if he wanted to pick a NATO state to hit it would be the UK.

Or maybe the anxiety is running away with me.



Crossing my fingers for Chechnya to go, a rebellion in Grozny would be near fatal to Putin, politically if not literally.

Yes, I've been worried and unnerved about all this for some months now, and is effecting my mental health. Since it began back in February when that evil mad Putin b*****d invaded Ukraine and seeing and reading on the news the catastrophic barbaric damage and deaths he is doing to that country for no justifiable reason whatsoever. Extremely upsetting. And then frequently over the last several months reading frequent reports that he is threatening to nuke the west, with such phrases as "Britain will be completely wiped off the face of this planet in just 5 seconds!!!". This is all extrememely extremely worrying. I believe he would be mad and evil enough to do such a thing the way this is going. He is also completely deluded, as he's said things such as "Liz Truss is threatening to use nuclear weapons on Russia.". Has she said such a thing?? NO!!! This man is very deluded and a very dangerous evil dictator. He is Hitler of the 21st century. I for one am VERY scared at the way this is going. Whilst all this still drags on for godknows how much longer(or god fordbid he goes and nukes Britain), my mental health is suffering. I'm sure I'm certainly not alone in this.

Today's news of Putin and his government celebrating the annexation of four Ukranian regions as Russian territory, him putting on a pop concert with thousands attending and him appearing on stage with all those thousands cheering as though he's a national hero, is just absolutely unreal and defies belief.

Never in my lifetime would I thought anything as bad and extreme as this would happen.

 

[Darandio]

Today's news of Putin and his government celebrating the annexation of four Ukranian regions as Russian territory, him putting on a pop concert with thousands attending and him appearing on stage with all those thousands cheering as though he's a national hero, is just absolutely unreal and defies belief.

All I saw was a load of random people that have been parachuted in, milling about whilst looking perplexed and waving the odd flag when a general appeared on the screens with the same faces often cropping up in different parts of the crowd, a celebration it was not. Very reminiscent of Top Of The Pops when a small audience was made to look much bigger than it actually was.

 

[Pete_uk]

I saw on another forum that Ukraine has been given some of the longer range surface to surface missiles. There has also been another victory for Ukraine in taking land back.

As for the nuclear side of things, if it wasn't for Stanislav Petrov, we would have had nuclear war in 1983.

 

[DustyBin]

All I saw was a load of random people that have been parachuted in, milling about whilst looking perplexed and waving the odd flag when a general appeared on the screens with the same faces often cropping up in different parts of the crowd, a celebration it was not. Very reminiscent of Top Of The Pops when a small audience was made to look much bigger than it actually was.

Yes it was fairly obvious that the majority of attendees weren’t there by choice.

Whilst I don’t expect to wake up tomorrow to the news that Putin has been bulleted, I do think his position gets weaker by the day. The only existential threat to Russia is Putin himself, and there’ll come a point when his own people say enough is enough.

 

[RichJF]

Yes, I've been worried and unnerved about all this for some months now, and is effecting my mental health. Since it began back in February when that evil mad Putin b*****d invaded Ukraine and seeing and reading on the news the catastrophic barbaric damage and deaths he is doing to that country for no justifiable reason whatsoever. Extremely upsetting. And then frequently over the last several months reading frequent reports that he is threatening to nuke the west, with such phrases as "Britain will be completely wiped off the face of this planet in just 5 seconds!!!". This is all extrememely extremely worrying. I believe he would be mad and evil enough to do such a thing the way this is going. He is also completely deluded, as he's said things such as "Liz Truss is threatening to use nuclear weapons on Russia.". Has she said such a thing?? NO!!! This man is very deluded and a very dangerous evil dictator. He is Hitler of the 21st century. I for one am VERY scared at the way this is going. Whilst all this still drags on for godknows how much longer(or god fordbid he goes and nukes Britain), my mental health is suffering. I'm sure I'm certainly not alone in this.

Today's news of Putin and his government celebrating the annexation of four Ukranian regions as Russian territory, him putting on a pop concert with thousands attending and him appearing on stage with all those thousands cheering as though he's a national hero, is just absolutely unreal and defies belief.

Never in my lifetime would I thought anything as bad and extreme as this would happen.

As someone who works in the defence industry & with connections to the MOD don't worry too much. This is EXACTLY what Putin wants; the West in fear of him. 90% of the time he's posturing.

I know it's hard but don't kowtow to the idiot that Putin is.

Nothing has changed in his nuclear weapon readiness. The "tactical" nukes he keeps threatening are stored in bunkers in Russia & require old Zil/GAZ trucks to move them. The second one comes out the US/UK/France will know: I believe this is what Biden has conveyed to the Kremlin. ie we'll knock out your nukes before they reach the battlefront.

Carry on going about your life & enjoy your bus & rail hobby! I'm not losing sleep & going out to a model railway exhibition this weekend. Go & do something similar.

 

[GS250]

As for the nuclear side of things, if it wasn't for Stanislav Petrov, we would have had nuclear war in 1983.

Didn't he get court martialed for effectively over riding the system and preventing WW3?

 

[RichJF]

Didn't he get court martialed for effectively over riding the system and preventing WW3?

Not court martialed but KGB level of questioning. Think he was initially praised but then covered up because of embarrassment to his superiors.

Poor guy had a nervous breakdown AFAIK!

Also let slip that the Soviet/Russian nuke force requires multiple people to authorise rather than a single point of responsibility.

 

[43096]

Yes, I've been worried and unnerved about all this for some months now, and is effecting my mental health. Since it began back in February when that evil mad Putin b*****d invaded Ukraine and seeing and reading on the news the catastrophic barbaric damage and deaths he is doing to that country for no justifiable reason whatsoever. Extremely upsetting. And then frequently over the last several months reading frequent reports that he is threatening to nuke the west, with such phrases as "Britain will be completely wiped off the face of this planet in just 5 seconds!!!". This is all extrememely extremely worrying. I believe he would be mad and evil enough to do such a thing the way this is going. He is also completely deluded, as he's said things such as "Liz Truss is threatening to use nuclear weapons on Russia.". Has she said such a thing?? NO!!! This man is very deluded and a very dangerous evil dictator. He is Hitler of the 21st century. I for one am VERY scared at the way this is going. Whilst all this still drags on for godknows how much longer(or god fordbid he goes and nukes Britain), my mental health is suffering. I'm sure I'm certainly not alone in this.

Today's news of Putin and his government celebrating the annexation of four Ukranian regions as Russian territory, him putting on a pop concert with thousands attending and him appearing on stage with all those thousands cheering as though he's a national hero, is just absolutely unreal and defies belief.

Never in my lifetime would I thought anything as bad and extreme as this would happen.

You need to stop reading this stuff, then, if it is affecting you.

Try thinking in terms of what you can control. If you can't control it, then don't worry about it - you can't do anything about it and worrying won't change that. What you can control is what news sources you're looking at - take control and decide not to read those that have a negative effect on you. That's easier said than done, I know.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Nothing has changed in his nuclear weapon readiness. The "tactical" nukes he keeps threatening are stored in bunkers in Russia & require old Zil/GAZ trucks to move them. The second one comes out the US/UK/France will know: I believe this is what Biden has conveyed to the Kremlin. ie we'll knock out your nukes before they reach the battlefront.

Exactly this. The Western nuclear powers are watching the Russian nukes like a hawk, and it's really not a problem for the US to ship in heavy equipment to the Ukrainians at a moments notice.

Whilst I don’t expect to wake up tomorrow to the news that Putin has been bulleted, I do think his position gets weaker by the day.

His position is still quite strong as long as Ukraine doesn't have control of any areas that they didn't have control of before February 24th. If Donetsk City falls, I'd expect Putin to be 'retired' quickly.

What is slightly concerning is that a diplomatic resolution seems further away now than at any point during the conflict. I can't see any available "off-ramp" that doesn't involve making unpalatable concessions to Putin. He and importantly his cronies need to be removed from within, but there no guarantee when or even if that will happen.

The only way this ends now is with Ukraine restoring control over the country with the exception of Crimea. There's absolutely no reason for Ukraine to back off or agree anything else, not least because the situation in Lyman shows that Ukraine can simply keep chipping away at Russia. There's nothing left in terms of Russian offensive capability, and their defensive capabilities appear to be ridiculously bad. If Ukraine does capture several thousand Russian forces in Lyman, the situation will only get worse domestically for Russia.

Speaking of Lyman, it's officially surrounded. The Russians *may* have fled (it's quite unclear, although some video shows what appears to be a break out), but either way, this is another huge loss. I cannot figure out what the Russians were doing or why they've allowed themselves to lose in such a way, but it's very obvious that morale must be rock bottom among the Russian forces now.

Apparently HIMARS has flattened some Russian military position in Svatove (to the north of Lyman) too, causing a large number of casualties.

 

[Strathclyder]

Whilst I don’t expect to wake up tomorrow to the news that Putin has been bulleted, I do think his position gets weaker by the day. The only existential threat to Russia is Putin himself, and there’ll come a point when his own people say enough is enough.

Yep, that is far more likely than any external forces directly getting rid of him. Most of Russia's domestic ills, particularly since Feburary/March, can be pinned squarely on him and he's well aware of this, hence the recent moves that reek of desperation and give off all the vibes of a cornered, wounded (well, his ego at least) animal.

In such a scenerio, it'll either be a massive revolt by the Russian people or the military in coordination with the highest levels of the Kremlin machinery that will remove him from office by force and/or 'unperson' him by way of a bullet, poisoned drink or a high window that was 'accidentally' left unlocked. Either one of those is far more likely than any direct or covert action by Ukraine and/or NATO.

Speaking of Lyman, it's officially surrounded. The Russians *may* have fled (it's quite unclear, although some video shows what appears to be a break out), but either way, this is another huge loss. I cannot figure out what the Russians were doing or why they've allowed themselves to lose in such a way, but it's very obvious that morale must be rock bottom among the Russian forces now.

That's arguably been the case since February/March, but particularly in the last couple weeks, morale has to be non-existant among Russian forces. No surprise that so many have defected whenever the opportunity has presented itself.

Not court martialed but KGB level of questioning. Think he was initially praised but then covered up because of embarrassment to his superiors.

Poor guy had a nervous breakdown AFAIK!

Not that it was any consulation to him personally given how he was treated in the aftermath, but history has - and will continue to be - kind to him for his coolheadedness and rational decision-making in a unbelievably tense situation. Goes without saying that he came out of it looking a damn sight better than any of his superiors.

 

[Annetts key]

liveuamap.com is currently showing this for the Lyman area:

As someone who works in the defence industry & with connections to the MOD don't worry too much. This is EXACTLY what Putin wants; the West in fear of him. 90% of the time he's posturing.

I know it's hard but don't kowtow to the idiot that Putin is.

Nothing has changed in his nuclear weapon readiness. The "tactical" nukes he keeps threatening are stored in bunkers in Russia & require old Zil/GAZ trucks to move them. The second one comes out the US/UK/France will know: I believe this is what Biden has conveyed to the Kremlin. ie we'll knock out your nukes before they reach the battlefront.

Carry on going about your life & enjoy your bus & rail hobby! I'm not losing sleep & going out to a model railway exhibition this weekend. Go & do something similar.

Absolutely agree about the U.S.A. having made it very clear to Russia that any use of nuclear weapons will result in severe consequences for Russia. Obviously the U.S.A. will not have provided details of what those severe consequences would be.

And the U.S.A. and other western countries will be using all available intelligence to closely monitor Russian nuclear weapons and systems.

So I think you can be certain that Putin knows that actually using a nuclear weapon would end very badly for him and Russia.

Also, Russia using nuclear weapons is very likely to upset China. And as the trade situation with the European countries gets worse, Putin really does not want to upset China…

That’s partly why he’s put on this show today. To try to frighten both Ukraine, the Ukrainian people, people in the west, and as propaganda for his own people.

Remember, he’s former KGB. He’s always trying to distract and mislead you.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 30 Sep 2022 ==

This video sums up the problems the Russian forces that are in the Lyman area have…

(Video shows maps and pictures showing that the Russian forces are surrounded. And how difficult it will be for the Russian forces to try to defend a road in a flat landscape surrounded by open fields. And how the Ukrainian military could easily target this road and any Russian military trying to use it.)

 

[GS250]

I can imagine Chinese intelligence are also keeping a close eye on affairs. They, as much as anyone cannot afford for a single nuclear weapon to be detonated anywhere.

 

[Broucek]

Yes, I've been worried and unnerved about all this for some months now, and is effecting my mental health. Since it began back in February when that evil mad Putin b*****d invaded Ukraine and seeing and reading on the news the catastrophic barbaric damage and deaths he is doing to that country for no justifiable reason whatsoever. Extremely upsetting. And then frequently over the last several months reading frequent reports that he is threatening to nuke the west, with such phrases as "Britain will be completely wiped off the face of this planet in just 5 seconds!!!". This is all extrememely extremely worrying. I believe he would be mad and evil enough to do such a thing the way this is going. He is also completely deluded, as he's said things such as "Liz Truss is threatening to use nuclear weapons on Russia.". Has she said such a thing?? NO!!! This man is very deluded and a very dangerous evil dictator. He is Hitler of the 21st century. I for one am VERY scared at the way this is going. Whilst all this still drags on for godknows how much longer(or god fordbid he goes and nukes Britain), my mental health is suffering. I'm sure I'm certainly not alone in this.

Today's news of Putin and his government celebrating the annexation of four Ukranian regions as Russian territory, him putting on a pop concert with thousands attending and him appearing on stage with all those thousands cheering as though he's a national hero, is just absolutely unreal and defies belief.

Never in my lifetime would I thought anything as bad and extreme as this would happen.

I’m so sorry you’re enduring this. As others have suggested, you should probably spend less time enagaging with news media. Today‘s media WANTS to create fear, anxiety and anger. It’s not healthy for any of us and it sounds like you’re suffering more than most.

The worst is unlikely to happen and if something bad does happen, it’s probably not the thing everyone was concerned about. For example, people worried about the economic impact of Brexit. Then COVID happened which was economically worse than even the most pessimistic Brexit scenario. And even then, the world didn’t end…

 

[adc82140]

I note the US has poured cold water on Ukraine's NATO application. "Not the right time" is what they've said. The danger of the application process is less to do directly with Putin's response, and more to do with the unity of the alliance. I could see Turkey and Hungary at the very least vetoing the application. I'm sure Putin would love that.

Unfortunately Zelensky has made himself look a little silly claiming he has some sort of fast track to membership. He's not prone to misjudging things, but in this case sadly he has.

 

[Cowley]

I can imagine Chinese intelligence are also keeping a close eye on affairs. They, as much as anyone cannot afford for a single nuclear weapon to be detonated anywhere.

I think this is a really important point. I do wonder if they’re starting to look at Putin in the same way that they look upon a certain leader of the DKP. As in they’ve gone for a pleasant Saturday night out on the town and two of their friends keep starting random fights in various pubs.

Not a very relaxing experience (I’m sure many of us have been there)...

 

[Cloud Strife]

I can imagine Chinese intelligence are also keeping a close eye on affairs. They, as much as anyone cannot afford for a single nuclear weapon to be detonated anywhere.

The Chinese are very clear on the use of nuclear weapons, and I imagine that Russia has been firmly told by them that there is to be no use of nuclear weapons or else.

(Video shows maps and pictures showing that the Russian forces are surrounded. And how difficult it will be for the Russian forces to try to defend a road in a flat landscape surrounded by open fields. And how the Ukrainian military could easily target this road and any Russian military trying to use it.)

It will be genuinely interesting to find out how many Russian troops are in Lyman. I see that the initial estimates are now being downplayed a bit by some commentators, but even 500 troops will be a huge PR gain for Ukraine if they surrender. There are people claiming that Russian troops escaping have already been dealt with, but I'm sceptical about that claim.

Putin apparently signed an order for another 120,000 soldiers to be mobilised.

But curiously, Igor Girkin (ex-head of the "DPR") is now getting very worried that Ukraine is plotting something elsewhere and that the Lyman offensive is a distraction. If this is indeed the case, military strategists will be writing about this war for centuries.

 

[gingerheid]

"Not the right time"

That much is clear. You can't take out insurance just after you've called the fire brigade!

Ukraine war: Russia completes land-grab as Kyiv's territory annexed

I'm only against the BBC when they're harassing me for a license fee for a TV I don't have and iPlayer I don't use. However this is a very misleading headline. It can hardly be said that Russia has completed a land grab of territory that it doesn't even occupy all of!

 

[johnnychips]

I think this is a really important point. I do wonder if they’re starting to look at Putin in the same way that they look upon a certain leader of the DKP. As in they’ve gone for a pleasant Saturday night out on the town and two of their friends keep starting random fights in various pubs.

Not a very relaxing experience (I’m sure many of us have been there)...

Yes, please don’t blow our planet up, before we can economically get hold of your valuable assets in Siberia, like we have in Africa.

 

[DustyBin]

I think this is a really important point. I do wonder if they’re starting to look at Putin in the same way that they look upon a certain leader of the DKP. As in they’ve gone for a pleasant Saturday night out on the town and two of their friends keep starting random fights in various pubs.

Not a very relaxing experience (I’m sure many of us have been there)...

Mr Cowley! Who on earth have you been associating with?!

(Read in your best John Bercow voice).

 

[najaB]

I'm only against the BBC when they're harassing me for a license fee for a TV I don't have and iPlayer I don't use. However this is a very misleading headline. It can hardly be said that Russia has completed a land grab of territory that it doesn't even occupy all of!

To be fair, it could be read as saying that Russia has completed the action of grabbing, not that there was anything in their hand.

 

[DustyBin]

Apparently Ukrainian forces now occupy the centre of Lyman, so it appears to have been liberated. From what I’ve read it’s a total bloodbath, a large number of the trapped Russians having fought to the end or been killed whilst trying to escape.

Whilst I’m a great believer in human stupidity, it’s unbelievable that a war of this nature is being fought in Europe in 2022. Even from the premise that all wars are stupid this one really takes the biscuit. One man’s war of choice……

 

[Annetts key]

Apparently there were lots of POWs as well.

 

[DustyBin]

Apparently there were lots of POWs as well.

Well the Ukrainians did promise they’d treat them better as POWs than Russia does as soldiers!

 

[Cloud Strife]

Apparently Ukrainian forces now occupy the centre of Lyman, so it appears to have been liberated. From what I’ve read it’s a total bloodbath, a large number of the trapped Russians having fought to the end or been killed whilst trying to escape.

I read that a few hours ago and didn't believe it, but now there's videos emerging showing wrecked Russian equipment and bodies. If, as speculated, the Ukrainians simply laid waste to the Russians on the retreat, then I can see Russian defences simply collapsing elsewhere. I've just seen one video of a Russian convoy that has been obliterated, and who knows what else has happened?

Either way, it is simply astonishing that Russia lost Lyman in this way. I thought they would have excellent defences and be thoroughly prepared, but instead they've lost Lyman within hours.

Rumours are that Kreminna might also fall within hours, which to the best of my map reading abilities puts Svatove in a very difficult position. From there, it seems that control of the Kupiansk-Kreminna road would put tremendous pressure on Severnodonetsk. If Severnodonetsk falls, then Luhansk city is within reach of HIMARS. Of course, the Russans expended a huge amount of energy in taking Severnodonetsk, and so the city will be difficult to defend.

I think the remarkable thing here is that we're seeing that Russia has no answer to intelligence-led precision strikes.

Apparently there were lots of POWs as well.

I do wonder what has happened here. I wouldn't blame Ukraine for simply murdering every single one of them, but at the same time, I wouldn't underestimate the propaganda value too.

 

[Simon11]

BBC reports that "In its statement on the Russian retreat from Lyman, the Russian defence ministry said its forces had killed more than 200 Ukrainian troops in 24 hours and destroyed 14 armoured vehicles."

Hope the sacrifices from the Ukrainian troops will be worth it and make a huge difference to the direction of this war. I wonder what the Russian POW and fatalities have been in Lyman!

 

[brad465]

Reports and video footage of a fire at Belbek airfield in Crimea:

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1576232176294670336

#Sevastopol Gauleiter has already found excuses "An emergency situation at the #Belbek airfield. According to rescuers, during landing the plane rolled out of the runway and caught fire. Now fire crews are working at the site," said Gauleiter.

Video attached