Russia invades Ukraine

[Annetts key]

From www.understandingwar.org

Russian sources indicated that Ukrainian troops have likely completed the envelopment of the Russian grouping in the Lyman area as of the end of the day on September 29. A prominent Russian military correspondent reported that Ukrainian forces broke through Russian defenses around Stavky, 10km north of Lyman, and cut the Torske-Drobysheve road that is the last supply and egress route for Russian elements holding the line west of Lyman.[14] The correspondent called the situation “extremely difficult” for elements of the BARS-13 detachment and the 752nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 20th Combined Arms Army, which are reportedly defending around Drobysheve and into Lyman.[15]

Another Russian milblogger stated that Ukrainian troops are attacking Lyman from three directions and have cut Russian access to the critical Svatove-Lyman road, which is the major ground line of communication (GLOC) sustaining the Russian grouping within Lyman itself.[16] Several milbloggers stated that the fall of Lyman to Ukrainian troops is imminent without the immediate reinforcement of Russian forces.[17] The Ukrainian General Staff reported earlier in the day on September 29 that seven tank units formed by newly mobilized and low-skilled personnel deployed to the Lyman area without proper fire training for tank weapons and got into a road accident.[18] It is highly unlikely that any deployment of additional, newly mobilized, forces to Lyman will afford the existing Russian grouping significant defensive capabilities and prevent Ukrainian troops from collapsing the Lyman pocket.

 

[kristiang85]

Putin will be doing a major speech in the Kremlin today at 3pm Russian time, regarding the annexation of the breakaway provinces. Let's see how robust his language is.

 

[Annetts key]

from www.scribblemaps.com

 

[najaB]

There are estimates of between 2500-3500 RF in Lyman, and I suspect the vast majority are well aware that they're now in the Azovstal situation.

Though, I fully expect Ukraine to just starve them out, rather than try to bomb them out of existence.

 

[kristiang85]

Putin's speech is on Sky now, if anybody is interested.

 

[yorksrob]

I gave up tripe when I became pescatarian.

 

[kristiang85]

I gave up tripe when I became pescatarian.

He mostly ranted and raved, whilst calling the west mad warmongerers (!!). It would be quite entertaining, if it wasn't quite so serious.

Now Zelensky has confirmed Ukraine have applied for fast track membership to NATO.

If NATO grants this, then as far as I understand it they will be obliged to enter the war against Russia, unless they formally recognise the annexed republics as Russian, as it will mean occupation of NATO territory. And if they do the latter then Putin wins (and the former means nobody wins).

Alternatively, NATO will have to reject Ukraine's request, which will also appease Putin.

I feel Putin has been playing a grand political chess game here, and unless we in the West are very careful about what we do next, he could be getting what he wants out of it.

 

[yorksrob]

He mostly ranted and raved, whilst calling the west mad warmongerers (!!). It would be quite entertaining, if it wasn't quite so serious.

Now Zelensky has confirmed Ukraine have applied for fast track membership to NATO.

If NATO grants this, then as far as I understand it they will be obliged to enter the war against Russia, unless they formally recognise the annexed republics as Russian, as it will mean occupation of NATO territory. And if they do the latter then Putin wins (and the former means nobody wins).

Alternatively, NATO will have to reject Ukraine's request, which will also appease Putin.

I feel Putin has been playing a grand political chess game here, and unless we in the West are very careful about what we do next, he could be getting what he wants out of it.

Alternatively, application to NATO could be positively received and held on the back-burner until the conflict is resolved.

In the meantime, the West will continue to arm and economically support Ukraine until the conflict is resolved.

We can play chess too

 

[brad465]

I prefer Darth Putin's take:

https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1575853181392760834

NATO had applied to join Ukraine.

 

[RichJF]

Alternatively, application to NATO could be positively received and held on the back-burner until the conflict is resolved.

In the meantime, the West will continue to arm and economically support Ukraine until the conflict is resolved.

We can play chess too

Regardless of what happens, Putin WILL NOT back down. His whole dictatorship is based on him being a "hard man" despite hiding behind 100ft long tables & his billion dollar palace in Sochi. He's paranoid about being seen as weak & conceding to others. so he'll continue ramp up the rhetoric even if it means millions of his untrained citizens are sent into the slaughter.

On the other hand he's backed himself into a corner with Ukraine now applying for NATO membership. They weren't planning to do this before the invasion. Arguably he's lost even more now.

 

[yorksrob]

Regardless of what happens, Putin WILL NOT back down. His whole dictatorship is based on him being a "hard man" despite hiding behind 100ft long tables & his billion dollar palace in Sochi. He's paranoid about being seen as weak & conceding to others. so he'll continue ramp up the rhetoric even if it means millions of his untrained citizens are sent into the slaughter.

On the other hand he's backed himself into a corner with Ukraine now applying for NATO membership. They weren't planning to do this before the invasion. Arguably he's lost even more now.

Indeed. In the long term, forces within Russia may eventually conclude that the only way to save face is to sacrifice the Putin leadership.

 

[ainsworth74]

Alternatively, application to NATO could be positively received and held on the back-burner until the conflict is resolved.

In the meantime, the West will continue to arm and economically support Ukraine until the conflict is resolved.

Precisely. I expect a response along the lines of "Until ongoing territorial disputes are resolved it won't be possible to progress this application. We will of course keep the matter under regular review". The response being stapled to a crate of GMLRS ammunition...

 

[adc82140]

There is a requirement before a country enters a Membership Action Plan that they have good relations with their neighbours. This obviously isn't the case. The move by Ukraine is a purely symbolic response to Russia's attempted annexation of the four regions.

It is, of course also a bargaining chip for Ukraine in any future negotiations as well. The Donbass is returned to Ukraine in exchange for Ukraine not joining NATO.

 

[DustyBin]

Precisely. I expect a response along the lines of "Until ongoing territorial disputes are resolved it won't be possible to progress this application. We will of course keep the matter under regular review". The response being stapled to a crate of GMLRS ammunition...

Yes I think that's exactly what will happen (maybe not quite the last part though!).

 

[ainsworth74]

On the other hand he's backed himself into a corner with Ukraine now applying for NATO membership. They weren't planning to do this before the invasion. Arguably he's lost even more now.

Bit like how he drove Sweden and Finland to abandon decades of neutrality (longer in Sweden's case!) and woke up Germany from it's "we don't need armed forces really" slumber. I mean 10/10 geopoliticking really, incredible stuff. By the by I'm still waiting for Russia to invade Finland like I'm sure one of our pro-Putin members indicated woud happen

 

[DustyBin]

Bit like how he drove Sweden and Finland to abandon decades of neutrality (longer in Sweden's case!) and woke up Germany from it's "we don't need armed forces really" slumber. I mean 10/10 geopoliticking really, incredible stuff. By the by I'm still waiting for Russia to invade Finland like I'm sure one of our pro-Putin members indicated woud happen

A member on another forum I use (who does have a propensity for catastrophising) posted something earlier about Russia invading further countries, and a major land war breaking out across Europe..... I responded by quoting Jason Statham in Snatch; "You're not exactly Mr current affairs are you Tommy?"....

 

[Giugiaro]

Imagine Dagestan declaring independence now. It would be hilarious.

The worst that could happen to Putin is for Russia to find itself dealing with two or several fronts at the same time.
Considering that what we see in Ukraine sums up what the Russian army is currently like in general.

 

[TheEdge]

Is anyone else getting genuinely worried about where this is going now?

I don't mean that in "I saw the capitilised headline on the Sun website" kind of way, I mean in a "I'm aware of the wider issues" kind of way, and I'm getting more and more concerned he will resort to nuclear weapons and there is a real chance of a NATO-Russia nuclear exchange. I fully support Ukraine and I fully believe we need to support them. But I'm starting to worry Putin will do anything at this point, an injured cornered animal is at its most dangerous and all that. He's got his version of reality where these parts of Ukraine are now Russia, he can claim Ukraine threatens Russian territory, he can hit the red button.

And then where do we stand? If NATO doesn't respond, its the ultimate bluff he pulls and he can do this again and again until he reforms the USSR. If NATO responds conventionally to clear him from Ukraine and he doesn't resort to nuclear strikes on NATO nations then that'll be a decent outcome. But if NATO responds, either with nuclear weapons or Putin reacts with a nuclear strike on a NATO state then that is nuclear war in Europe. I'm also concerned that Vlad really hates us specifically, all the "Anglo-Saxon" stuff and that if he wanted to pick a NATO state to hit it would be the UK.

Or maybe the anxiety is running away with me.

Imagine Dagestan declaring independence now. It would be hilarious.

Crossing my fingers for Chechnya to go, a rebellion in Grozny would be near fatal to Putin, politically if not literally.

 

[gingerheid]

There is a gloomy note, of course, which is that Russia's tactic is to throw his people at the other side's bullets and hope that they have more people than the other side has bullets, a bit like

It looks like continuing to do this is inching back at some of the earlier Ukrainian gains I have a particular interest in closely watching the ISW map for the Kupiansk area, and I see that Petropavlivka is now disputed (previously liberated)

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 30 Sep 2022 ==

Is anyone else getting genuinely worried about where this is going now?

Yes. There is a limit to the number of times someone can tell you they are at war with you and be incorrect.

 

[ainsworth74]

Is anyone else getting genuinely worried about where this is going now?

Nope, not just you. That speech seemed unhinged, even by his standards, and the way he spoke of the West seemed to verge into the sort of hatred his troops have been showing against their so called Ukrainian "brothers and sisters". I'm not rushing to build a bomb shelter in the back garden (not that I would, I'm hoping to be taken out immediately or die shortly afterwards) but my concern has ratcheted up considerably.

 

[philosopher]

Is anyone else getting genuinely worried about where this is going now?

I don't mean that in "I saw the capitilised headline on the Sun website" kind of way, I mean in a "I'm aware of the wider issues" kind of way, and I'm getting more and more concerned he will resort to nuclear weapons and there is a real chance of a NATO-Russia nuclear exchange. I fully support Ukraine and I fully believe we need to support them. But I'm starting to worry Putin will do anything at this point, an injured cornered animal is at its most dangerous and all that. He's got his version of reality where these parts of Ukraine are now Russia, he can claim Ukraine threatens Russian territory, he can hit the red button.

And then where do we stand? If NATO doesn't respond, its the ultimate bluff he pulls and he can do this again and again until he reforms the USSR. If NATO responds conventionally to clear him from Ukraine and he doesn't resort to nuclear strikes on NATO nations then that'll be a decent outcome. But if NATO responds, either with nuclear weapons or Putin reacts with a nuclear strike on a NATO state then that is nuclear war in Europe. I'm also concerned that Vlad really hates us specifically, all the "Anglo-Saxon" stuff and that if he wanted to pick a NATO state to hit it would be the UK.

If Putin did order the use of nuclear weapons I think the most likely outcome is the order would be ignored by the generals on the ground and Putin would swiftly be removed from power. He may be deluded, but his generals almost certainly are not. Launching nuclear weapons would likely be suicidal from the point of view of the generals.

 

[Gloster]

As I have said before, Putin will pull everything and everybody down rather than admit he was wrong. Pragmatic realpolitik suggests that he always needs to be left a bit of wriggle room and not to be humiliated if there is any chance of him accepting a reasonable deal.

 

[Falcon1200]

Pragmatic realpolitik suggests that he always needs to be left a bit of wriggle room and not to be humiliated if there is any chance of him accepting a reasonable deal.

Surely a 'reasonable (to Putin) deal' would include ceding Ukrainian territory to Russia, thus justifying (to him) the invasion? History shows that appeasing such actions does not end well, or at that point. Russia must return to its original borders, nothing else can be acceptable.

 

[yorksrob]

Is anyone else getting genuinely worried about where this is going now?

I don't mean that in "I saw the capitilised headline on the Sun website" kind of way, I mean in a "I'm aware of the wider issues" kind of way, and I'm getting more and more concerned he will resort to nuclear weapons and there is a real chance of a NATO-Russia nuclear exchange. I fully support Ukraine and I fully believe we need to support them. But I'm starting to worry Putin will do anything at this point, an injured cornered animal is at its most dangerous and all that. He's got his version of reality where these parts of Ukraine are now Russia, he can claim Ukraine threatens Russian territory, he can hit the red button.

And then where do we stand? If NATO doesn't respond, its the ultimate bluff he pulls and he can do this again and again until he reforms the USSR. If NATO responds conventionally to clear him from Ukraine and he doesn't resort to nuclear strikes on NATO nations then that'll be a decent outcome. But if NATO responds, either with nuclear weapons or Putin reacts with a nuclear strike on a NATO state then that is nuclear war in Europe. I'm also concerned that Vlad really hates us specifically, all the "Anglo-Saxon" stuff and that if he wanted to pick a NATO state to hit it would be the UK.

Or maybe the anxiety is running away with me.



Crossing my fingers for Chechnya to go, a rebellion in Grozny would be near fatal to Putin, politically if not literally.

The calculation between Russia and Nato is the same as it's been for the last sixty years.

I'm more concerned he might do something rash in Ukraine. Ukraine will have evaluated this threat, and we and our other allies have (presumably) warned Russia of the consequences of such an escalation within Ukraine. Other than that, all we can do is continue to support.

 

[TheEdge]

The calculation between Russia and Nato is the same as it's been for the last sixty years.

Is it though? None of the USSR leaders, expect Stalin himself, really seem to have been the totalitarian dictator the Vlad is. Which changes the calculation somewhat.

I guess I can hope India and China are talking in his other ear...

 

[Simon11]

I think the only way is to take out Putin…

I would assume NATO/ America are monitoring where he is and like with Saddam Hussain, will already be ready to go in if needed?

Or a Russian does it…! Out the window…? It only takes on person to do the deed and security cant protect him 100%.

 

[yorksrob]

Is it though? None of the USSR leaders, expect Stalin himself, really seem to have been the totalitarian dictator the Vlad is. Which changes the calculation somewhat.

I guess I can hope India and China are talking in his other ear...

One must assume that the ultimate aim of all Russian leaders, including Stalin and Putin has been/is to avoid the annihilation of Russia.

 

[Scotrail314209]

I understand why Ukraine have applied to join NATO, but my main worry is the conflict spiralling out of control should NATO accept them in.

I’m scared as to how this is going to go.

 

[GS250]

One must assume that the ultimate aim of all Russian leaders, including Stalin and Putin has been/is to avoid the annihilation of Russia.

Yep. Russia's rich and powerful may not care about losing a few hundred thousand young men. But they may well care about losing their palaces, wealth, family, environment and inevitably their lives.

 

[Broucek]

I understand why Ukraine have applied to join NATO, but my main worry is the conflict spiralling out of control should NATO accept them in.

I’m scared as to how this is going to go.

Not going to happen. And the world is not going to end because of this anymore than it did due to everything else the media has catastrophised over for the last 50+ years....