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Russia invades Ukraine

Annetts key

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I still find myself at a complete loss to explain the pipeline sabotage, which really should be the #1 story.
Unfortunately (or fortunately depending on how you look at it) in the U.K. the fallout from Trussonomics is the big lead story.
The damage to the pipelines did get a brief mention on some of the news channels last evening.

The thing is, no one (and I’m talking about countries here) apart from Russia had a real motive for damaging gas pipelines that were not actually in use for transporting gas…
 
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Cdd89

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The thing is, no one (and I’m talking about countries here) apart from Russia had a real motive for damaging gas pipelines that were not actually in use for transporting gas
They had the potential to rapidly be put back into use transporting gas, as Russia repeatedly reminded the EU; that is no longer the case, so it’s a huge brake on any country ‘tempted’ to lift sanctions on Russia to get them out of a short term problem. I can think of lots of countries with an interest in such a brake being applied.
 

Giugiaro

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If the leak from both Nordstreams comes from an act of sabotage, whoever did it should be accused of an environmental crime.
Unburned gas has a greenhouse effect terrifyingly higher than that of CO2, with methane being eight-six times more potent.
 

43096

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Realistically NATO is at war with Russia. It's just that neither side is admitting this (which is in some ways useful).
More to the point, Russia thinks that it is at war with NATO, a view which is not held reciprocally by NATO.
 

Gloster

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In a bizarre turn of events, The Independent is reporting that Trump is offering his services to negotiate between Putin and European leaders to prevent things ratcheting up. It is really difficult to know how to react to this, other than thinking that it is beyond satire. (I am presuming that it is not an elaborate hoax, which would, in some ways, be the most rational explanation.)

(Source: The Independent via my yahoo news feed.)
 

TheEdge

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Realistically NATO is at war with Russia. It's just that neither side is admitting this (which is in some ways useful).

NATO isn't at war with Russia. Ukraine is at war with Russia, NATO, along with non-NATO states are supplying equipment or aid. Russia believes it is at war with NATO, but it isn't.

If Russia was at war with NATO this thread would be going one of two ways. Either it wouldn't exist because we'd be in a post nuclear wasteland, or we'd be discussing the conventional NATO victory over Russia and what was going to happen to a post Putin Russia.
 

Annetts key

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They had the potential to rapidly be put back into use transporting gas, as Russia repeatedly reminded the EU; that is no longer the case, so it’s a huge brake on any country ‘tempted’ to lift sanctions on Russia to get them out of a short term problem. I can think of lots of countries with an interest in such a brake being applied.
Yes, there was indeed the potential to reinstate them quickly. Especially if there was nothing wrong with Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 is supposedly ready to go.

However, the E.U. has very publicly said that they intended to reduce dependence on gas from Russia, and Germany refused to grant permission for Nord Stream 2 to be used (as I understand it).

Now, I don’t follow the politics of Germany closely enough to understand the ‘how’ of their plan to reduce their dependence on Russian gas. But I am aware that both Germany and the other E.U. member states are well aware of the long term aim of reducing emissions that contribute to climate change. The consumption of coal, oil and gas has to be reduced to achieve this.

So in the short term, I assume the E.U. are looking for alternative gas from other countries (including LPG via ship) and developing a longer term plan based on a combination of energy efficiency measures, renewable energy sources and some existing gas supplies and nuclear power.

Putin does appear to act out of spite, going on the actions of the Russian military firing missiles at civilian targets. So it would not surprise me if the attack on the pipelines was a demonstration of more of this. He presumably thinks that just stopping the supply of gas was not having a big enough impact, so he escalated…
 

DustyBin

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NATO isn't at war with Russia. Ukraine is at war with Russia, NATO, along with non-NATO states are supplying equipment or aid. Russia believes it is at war with NATO, but it isn't.

If Russia was at war with NATO this thread would be going one of two ways. Either it wouldn't exist because we'd be in a post nuclear wasteland, or we'd be discussing the conventional NATO victory over Russia and what was going to happen to a post Putin Russia.

Basically this is it (although I do question whether Russia really believes it's at war with NATO).
 

adc82140

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My theory in the pipelines is that Russia was behind it, with them blaming the US (the Russian media has already started this). The motive is to try and drive a wedge between the US and Europe, to weaken the alliance.

Re who is at war with who- Russia, according to them, isn't at war with anybody. It's a "special military operation". Once the annexation has concluded, I've seen reports in the Russian media that it will be rebranded an "anti terrorist operation". So still not a war.
 

simonw

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Yes, there was indeed the potential to reinstate them quickly. Especially if there was nothing wrong with Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 is supposedly ready to go.

However, the E.U. has very publicly said that they intended to reduce dependence on gas from Russia, and Germany refused to grant permission for Nord Stream 2 to be used (as I understand it).

Now, I don’t follow the politics of Germany closely enough to understand the ‘how’ of their plan to reduce their dependence on Russian gas. But I am aware that both Germany and the other E.U. member states are well aware of the long term aim of reducing emissions that contribute to climate change. The consumption of coal, oil and gas has to be reduced to achieve this.

So in the short term, I assume the E.U. are looking for alternative gas from other countries (including LPG via ship) and developing a longer term plan based on a combination of energy efficiency measures, renewable energy sources and some existing gas supplies and nuclear power.

Putin does appear to act out of spite, going on the actions of the Russian military firing missiles at civilian targets. So it would not surprise me if the attack on the pipelines was a demonstration of more of this. He presumably thinks that just stopping the supply of gas was not having a big enough impact, so he escalated…
I assume you mean lng (liquefied natural gas) not lpg. Lpg would be of limited use.
 

brad465

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My theory in the pipelines is that Russia was behind it, with them blaming the US (the Russian media has already started this). The motive is to try and drive a wedge between the US and Europe, to weaken the alliance.
There definitely seems to be a surge in what looks like bot activity on Twitter claiming this to be the case.
 

kristiang85

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In a bizarre turn of events, The Independent is reporting that Trump is offering his services to negotiate between Putin and European leaders to prevent things ratcheting up. It is really difficult to know how to react to this, other than thinking that it is beyond satire. (I am presuming that it is not an elaborate hoax, which would, in some ways, be the most rational explanation.)

(Source: The Independent via my yahoo news feed.)

That reminds me of Paul Gascogine turning up in his pyjamas and a bucket of chicken to negotiate with Raoul Moat...

Utterly bizarre.
 

DustyBin

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That reminds me of Paul Gascogine turning up in his pyjamas and a bucket of chicken to negotiate with Raoul Moat...

Utterly bizarre.

I just nearly choked on my Malbec! :lol:

To be fair to Trump he does actually have a way of relating to nutters like Putin, it was one of his strengths when in office. It’s a strange suggestion under the circumstances though!
 

Cloud Strife

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So, 18 more HIMARS systems will be on their way to Ukraine. If these turn up relatively quickly, then things are about to get even worse for Russia than they already are.

There's a video going around showing an attack by Ukrainian troops on a Russian camp in the forest, and the camp itself is ridiculously basic: the Russians were sleeping under plastic sheeting and with zero defensive structures in place! If this is the level of preparation, it's no surprise that Ukraine is progressing east and south.

In the case of Lyman, it looks very much like Ukraine is going to simply encircle the city rather than fight their way in. Ukraine appears to be very much following the policy that they will simply keep probing Russian defences and advance when they can, and if they find weak spots, they're hammering them.

I'm only a very amateur armchair general, but my impression is that the Russians are effectively finished as an invading force.
 

Annetts key

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I'm only a very amateur armchair general, but my impression is that the Russians are effectively finished as an invading force.
I reached that conclusion when I saw the rout in the Izium area…
And I don’t think the men they are literally pulling off the streets in Russia are going to help, even if they could get them to the front…

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

This YouTube channel gives a most excellent report on the current situation around Lyman.

He also provides a written report on the YouTube channel:
Reporting from Ukraine said:
Reporting from Ukraine

I am a Ukrainian. My country has been invaded by Russia. In this video I will tell you what happened on the two hundred and seventeenth day of the war.

Day 217: September 28

Ukrainian offensive operation in Lyman continues to develop rapidly. Today the Ukrainians have already established complete fire control over the most important roads that the Russians used to supply and reinforce Lyman and Yampil. The situation became very critical because, simultaneously with the expansion in the north, the Ukrainians finally launched their attack from the south. Judging by what is happening right now, in 2-3 days, the Ukrainians will completely cut off Russian forces from the mainland and create a more than 10 km buffer zone between the surrounded and the mainland. The Russians in Lyman are doomed unless they decide to retreat or the situation develops in an unforeseen way.

Two days ago, the Ukrainians took control over Ridkodub and Nove, while Russian forces, fearing being surrounded, have been leaving Pisky and Malivka. Today the Ukrainians established complete control over Pisky, although some sources suggest they are still clearing this town. Some sources also suggest that the Ukrainians continued to push the Russians to the north and are already near Borova. Since the front line in this particular region is collapsing, the main job of the Ukrainians is just to ensure that the Russians do not have enough time to establish new defense lines. That is why many scout groups operate in this region, creating an extensive grey zone. In this grey zone, they are sporadically attacking the settlements under Russian control, but more importantly, they limit the movement between these settlements. This means that the Russians can neither supply nor reinforce them in fear of their convoys being ambushed, so these small settlements between Pisky and Borova remain very vulnerable, with no reinforcement and with no ability to repel a big attack. From here, the Ukrainians will try to pierce the front line in the middle to create another cauldron (this time for Borova) and force the Russians to retreat once again because if the Russians have troubles reinforcing Lyman, then there is no chance they will help the ones stuck in Borova.

When it comes to the eastward expansion, here the Ukrainians have achieved massive success. They managed to establish full control over Novoselivka, and they also, at least for some time, pushed the Russians out of Shandryholove. Some sources say that the Russians managed to take it back together with Karpivka, but I find it unconvincing. Ukrainian forces that took Ridkodub moved east and south and took Katerynivka, Zelena Dolyna, and the latest news suggests that they even entered Kolodyazi. If this is true, then the northern connection is now completely cut off, and the Russians can rely only on the road to Zarichne, which is what they used anyway. However, recent news suggests that even this road cannot be used safely anymore and here is why.

After creating so much trouble to the north of Lyman and stretching the front line, the Russians obviously allocated more forces to try to stabilize this region. Due to the overall lack of forces, this weakened defense around Zarichne, and I do not mean that they relocated their forces from Zarichne, I mean that the general ability to reinforce this region decreased. And it seems like the Ukrainians bet that it is enough because today, they finally launched their attacks in the direction of Yampil and Zarichne. The fact that the Ukrainians operate so deep into the region clearly indicates that they control the forest. Some Russian sources also raise the alarm about this situation because the Ukrainians have reportedly established many pontoon crossings that allow them to relocate heavy machinery like tanks.

Overall, if the Ukrainians indeed entered Kolodiazi, then they can already attack Zarichne from two sides, which indicates that the Lyman group is in the operational encirclement, meaning has no way to get out of the region without severe losses.

If you are against the invasion of Ukraine and want to support the work that I am doing, consider making a purchase in the online store UA Supporter. Here you can find a lot of products with Ukrainian symbols, to not only show your support for this channel, but also for Ukraine.

I definitely would recommend that if you do not already subscribe, you do so now.
 
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TwoYellas

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In a bizarre turn of events, The Independent is reporting that Trump is offering his services to negotiate between Putin and European leaders to prevent things ratcheting up. It is really difficult to know how to react to this, other than thinking that it is beyond satire. (I am presuming that it is not an elaborate hoax, which would, in some ways, be the most rational explanation.)

(Source: The Independent via my yahoo news feed.)
Just goes to show how poor leadership and diplomacy is if there's even a hint of a suggestion that that MAGA hat wearing narcissist is the best we can do.
 

43096

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Just goes to show how poor leadership and diplomacy is if there's even a hint of a suggestion that that MAGA hat wearing narcissist is the best we can do.
MAGA now standing for “My Attorney Got Arrested”, presumably?
 

Annetts key

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Yes, I’m aware of a pipeline pig. A self propelled maintenance pig could have been used, or a standard pig if the gas was appropriately controlled.

Having read a comment from someone who worked with pigs and on pipelines, it now appears unlikely a pig could have been used without the pressure change being detected at the German end. Plus there are practical problems in using a pig.

So it looks far more likely that external explosives were placed on, near to or attached to the pipelines.
 

najaB

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Having read a comment from someone who worked with pigs and on pipelines, it now appears unlikely a pig could have been used without the pressure change being detected at the German end. Plus there are practical problems in using a pig.
The pipeline was largely shut down though, so there wouldn't have been much in the way of pressure to drop. Also, does Gazprom not control both ends of the pipeline?
 

Cdd89

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Now Russia is formally annexing four more regions, I must admit to being a little nervous of the crunch moment as Ukraine attacks areas that are “Russian” (albeit not internationally recognised as such), and Putin’s bluff is tested.

One thing that will make a very big difference I suspect is whether non-Western nations, such as China and India, make statements recognising (or denying) those areas as part of Russia.
 

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