Russia invades Ukraine

[Yew]

The pipeline incident is probably going to become a serious story - it seems there is a massive hole in the pipeline, so an explosive device is the main suspect (although failure cannot be ruled out, it does seem somewhat coincidental, especially as its across both pipelines, as far as I understand).

The Danish government are holding an emergency meeting, as are the Swedes.

The videos of the leak site are quite extraordinary.

With Russia about to declare the "breakaway" areas as Russian, I get the feeling this is going to get politically messy very quickly.

I would dare say that some NATO Boeing Poseidon anti submarine warfare aircraft will casting their sonar arrays over the area in short order.

 

[dgl]

I wonder if part of the reason for Russia having these scam referendums is so they can claim everyone there is Russian and they can use them as more cannon fodder in their Army. Maybe also hoping that the Ukrainian army won't want to fire on their own people so acting as some sort of buffer.

 

[Cloud Strife]

I would dare say that some NATO Boeing Poseidon anti submarine warfare aircraft will casting their sonar arrays over the area in short order.

They were most likely already watching the area. While Poland's government is utterly incompetent on military issues, the same can't be said for the Danish and Swedish governments.

It's hard to see this as anything other than a deliberate act of sabotage by Russia in order to make it clear that the gas is very much off.

I wonder if part of the reason for Russia having these scam referendums is so they can claim everyone there is Russian and they can use them as more cannon fodder in their Army. Maybe also hoping that the Ukrainian army won't want to fire on their own people so acting as some sort of buffer.

They're already doing exactly that, and the UA forces have no problem with taking them to pieces if needs be.

 

[35B]

I wonder if part of the reason for Russia having these scam referendums is so they can claim everyone there is Russian and they can use them as more cannon fodder in their Army. Maybe also hoping that the Ukrainian army won't want to fire on their own people so acting as some sort of buffer.

Using those who've been invaded is I'm sure part of the playbook. But more important is that by declaring these provinces part of Russia, they legitimise sending conscripts to fight there - because they're then within Russia.

 

[kristiang85]

The leaks on Nord Stream 1 and 2 are apparently 75km apart, so definitely it seems like a coordinated sabotage.

 

[Cdd89]

The leaks on Nord Stream 1 and 2 are apparently 75km apart, so definitely it seems like a coordinated sabotage.

It’s very concerning and I don’t really understand what’s in it for Russia to have done this (assuming they’re behind it, which feels like a safe assumption). Surely this is (literally) destroying their only bargaining chip? Perhaps there’s something I’m missing, or as alluded upthread it’s an action by some other wing of the Russian government.

 

[najaB]

I wonder if part of the reason for Russia having these scam referendums is so they can claim everyone there is Russian and they can use them as more cannon fodder in their Army.

Yes. Of course it is. Plus there aren't any deployment limits or extra pay for domestic as opposed to foreign service.

 

[Annetts key]

The destruction of the two pipelines has, IMHO, only one purpose. To try to cause the markets to react. Hence the price of gas will increase. Russia then profits on the other gas exports, and they hope that it causes instability in the European markets.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 27 Sep 2022 ==

European countries really need to get a move on, and quickly, to switch electricity generation to renewables such as wind turbines, solar PV arrays, coastal tidal turbines and related technologies.

And to invest in super insulating homes, offices, shops and any other buildings that are intended to be heated. In addition, where suitable, either using waste heat from industrial plants, or ground source heat pumps could help reduce oil, gas or electricity for heating homes and other buildings. Home owners, building owners, all need to be encouraged to carry out this work by governments.

At the same time, the production of electric cars, vans and other vehicles needs to be increased drastically. Along with government incentives to encourage people and businesses to switch. Electric vehicles are much more efficient than internal combustion engines.

This all needs doing NOW. Then our reliance on Russian oil and gas can be reduced in the near future and for the long term,

It’s now abundantly clear that Russia will never be reliable while Putin is their president.

 

[Class 33]

Sky News now has a headline "Russia threatening West with nuclear apocalypse"

Jesus Christ. Seeing headlines like this is extremely extremely worrying. Knowing just how mad and evil that Putin is too. Don't know how much more of this I can take.

 

[birchesgreen]

Well there was a screenshot on another forum supposedly from the Russian government procurement website where they were placing a request for the materials to make millions of potassium iodine tablets but then again as it was all in Russian it could have been the St Petersburg Top 10 for all i know.

 

[najaB]

Jesus Christ. Seeing headlines like this is extremely extremely worrying. Knowing just how mad and evil that Putin is too. Don't know how much more of this I can take.

While nothing is impossible, you are much more likely to win the Euromillions having never bought a ticket than Putin is to order the use of nuclear weapons. He might be evil, but he also has a survival instinct and he knows that the moment he orders a first use of nukes he is gone - either through his generals refusing the order and inviting him to take in the view of Moscow through an upper window of the Kremlin or through his oligarch buddies deciding that they need a new patron.

 

[adc82140]

Sky News now has a headline "Russia threatening West with nuclear apocalypse"

Jesus Christ. Seeing headlines like this is extremely extremely worrying. Knowing just how mad and evil that Putin is too. Don't know how much more of this I can take.

As per Covid, it's best to stay away from the attention seeking headlines. The context behind that particular headline is that Russian lunatic-in-chief Dmitry Medvedev has said that in the highly unlikely (his words) event of nuclear weapon use in Ukraine, he doubts that NATO would respond in kind as it could escalate into a nuclear apocalypse, which no one wants. Note copious use of ifs and coulds. I'm not sure how Sky News managed to turn that into a "threat of apocalypse". Perhaps their best journos are busy covering the impending financial meltdown, which concerns me much more.

 

[ninja-lewis]

Russia won two campaigns by using bodies over technology in winter… how good is Himars in -30, when if you touch the metal you stick to it ?

"In January 2004, The Army fired 18 reduced-range practice rockets and six Guided MLRS rockets at the Cold Regions Test Center, Alaska. Temperatures ranged from -22 to -24 degrees Fahrenheit [-30C]. The Army also inserted a new battery and validated that it improved cold start performance identified as a problem during previous cold-weather testing."

https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/budget/fy2004/dot-e/army/2004himars.pdf

This is partly why proper "military grade" equipment is so expensive.

It wasn't just a one-off acquisition test. US HIMARS units routinely deploy to Alaska as part of annual arctic exercises.

 

[Cloud Strife]

It’s very concerning and I don’t really understand what’s in it for Russia to have done this (assuming they’re behind it, which feels like a safe assumption). Surely this is (literally) destroying their only bargaining chip? Perhaps there’s something I’m missing, or as alluded upthread it’s an action by some other wing of the Russian government.

Generally speaking, what Russia is trying to do is to frighten Europeans. Now there's no Nord Stream, so Europe is relying on the pipelines through potentially awkward states. For instance, let's say Germany breaks and they agree to pay Russia in rubles for gas. The Yamal pipeline runs through Poland, which means that the Polish government can blackmail Germany in various ways for domestic gain.

To be honest, the concerning thing here is that if it turns out that we don't know how it happened except that there was an explosion, then it means that the Danish, Polish and Swedish underwater monitoring systems are weak.

As for Russia's threats of nuclear weapons, it's just not going to happen.

 

[Pete_uk]

Class 33, turn the TV off or visit other web sites!

With almost 100% of the voters in the breakaway regions voting to become apart of Russia I can see things getting a bit more of a mess.

The pipeline being sabotaged is a interesting situation. Probably used a pipe bomb...

Hope Europe has plenty of coal fired power stations that can be fired up quickly.

 

[najaB]

To be honest, the concerning thing here is that if it turns out that we don't know how it happened except that there was an explosion, then it means that the Danish, Polish and Swedish underwater monitoring systems are weak.

Not necessarily. If it was, in fact, the Russians then it may well be literally an inside job. Insert a pig containing explosives on a timer and job's done.

 

[Annetts key]

Class 33, turn the TV off or visit other web sites!

With almost 100% of the voters in the breakaway regions voting to become apart of Russia I can see things getting a bit more of a mess.

The pipeline being sabotaged is a interesting situation. Probably used a pipe bomb...

Hope Europe has plenty of coal fired power stations that can be fired up quickly.

Putin and his cronies have threatened the use of nuclear weapons before. It’s becoming almost a regular occurrence. Strangely enough, the rhetoric is mostly higher when Russia is feeling threatened or is experiencing bad news. Don’t expect this to change, as I predict Russia will be have lots more bad news over the coming days, weeks and months.

Remember Putin threatened the west if we armed Ukraine. What happened? We armed Ukraine, but no nuclear missiles were launched. It’s all scare tactics mixed with Putin or his cronies trying to look powerful to there own people.

I very much doubt that it was anywhere close to being almost 100% of the voters in the breakaway regions that actually voted. And no matter what people voted for, the announced results were only ever going to be one result. That is, the result that Putin wanted…

I think, or rather I hope you are joking about a pipe bomb! As a “pipe bomb” is not really a suitable weapon for destroying a gas pipeline under an ocean…! Bit hard to ignite the fuse under all that water!

Germany and indeed most European countries (well, apart from the U.K.) have enough gas in storage to get through a normal winter. And there are plans in place to deal with any unexpected problems.

The U.K. has let itself go to pot with regards to gas storage, because maintaining such infrastructure costs money… But we (did) only get a fraction of gas from Russia, so it should not be a problem. And we are supposed to be reducing our import of Russian gas to zero (we may have already done so).

So no need to panic about energy, or panic about coal power stations. Not that there are many left in the U.K…

And Germany and France already have their coal power stations running.

 

[najaB]

I think, or rather I hope you are joking about a pipe bomb! As a “pipe bomb” is not really a suitable weapon for destroying a gas pipeline under an ocean…! Bit hard to ignite the fuse under all that water!

Actually it would be rather simple to do - as I noted above, load a pig with explosives on a timer and you've got a pretty effective and precise way to destroy the pipeline.

 

[Darandio]

I think, or rather I hope you are joking about a pipe bomb! As a “pipe bomb” is not really a suitable weapon for destroying a gas pipeline under an ocean…! Bit hard to ignite the fuse under all that water!

Not at all, fuse wire will burn happily underwater. You mention igniting, with military tech likely involved it's naive to think there wouldn't use a way of protecting the ignition from the surrounding water.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Not necessarily. If it was, in fact, the Russians then it may well be literally an inside job. Insert a pig containing explosives on a timer and job's done.

The interesting suggestion that I've seen is that it's plausible that it was done weeks/months ago using a ship disguised as a commercial ship. The Russians are well known for doing this in the Baltic Sea, and one trick that they use is to send out a ship named identically to another commercial ship, but that the 'new' ship is actually a military ship in disguise. It doesn't attract attention, and it's perfect for missions such as this.

The precision of at least one of the attacks (just outside Denmark's 12 mile territorial waters) suggests that whoever did this knew exactly what they were doing.

Germany and indeed most European countries (well, apart from the U.K.) have enough gas in storage to get through a normal winter. And there are plans in place to deal with any unexpected problems.

Poland doesn't. As it stands, we don't have enough gas to get through the winter. The Baltic Pipe, LNG deliveries and what exists domestically and in reserve just isn't enough. Combined with zero coal reserves (!!), it's going to be a pretty rubbish winter here.

 

[Ediswan]

Actually it would be rather simple to do - as I noted above, load a pig with explosives on a timer and you've got a pretty effective and precise way to destroy the pipeline.

If I read correctly, normal pipeline pigs are not self-propelled, they are moved by the flow of fluid in the pipeline. Neither pipeline was operating at the time. On that basis, you would need special self-propelled pigs, with a range of many hundred km (assuming starting from Russia).

 

[Gloster]

Is there any reason why a self-propelled pig could not be devised? It could then make its way to the desired point before being exploded by one means or another. Or would the pressure of the gas in the pipe prevent it from moving along? (N.b. I had to look up what a pig was, but I am trying not to be carried away by Bondian imagination.)

EDIT: The Danish and Swedish PMs have both said it is sabotage.

 

[najaB]

If I read correctly, normal pipeline pigs are not self-propelled, they are moved by the flow of fluid in the pipeline. Neither pipeline was operating at the time.

Assuming that Gasprom has control of the far end of the pipeline there would be nothing stopping them from allowing just enough gas through to push the pig - for maintenance purposes, of course.

 

[Annetts key]

Er, guys, a ‘pipe bomb’ is an improvised bomb - see for example the Wikipedia article

A pipe bomb is an improvised explosive device which uses a tightly sealed section of pipe filled with an explosive material. The containment provided by the pipe means that simple low explosives can be used to produce a relatively huge explosion due to the containment causing increased pressure, and the fragmentation of the pipe itself creates potentially lethal shrapnel.

Premature detonation is a hazard of attempting to construct any homemade bomb, and the materials and methods used with pipe bombs make unintentional detonation incidents common, usually resulting in serious injury or death to the assembler.

Design

Different pipe bombs' appearances, from a bomb awareness report issued by the US Department of State
The bomb is usually a short section of steel water pipe containing the explosive mixture and closed at both ends with steel or brass caps. A fuse is inserted into the pipe with a lead running out through a hole in the side or capped end of the pipe. The fuse can be electric, with wires leading to a timer and battery, or can be a common fuse. All of the components are easily obtainable.

Generally, high explosives such as TNT are not used, because these and the detonators that they require are difficult for non-state users to obtain. Such explosives also do not require the containment of a pipe bomb.

Instead, any sort of explosive mixture the builder can find or make is used. Some of the explosive mixtures used, such as gunpowder, match heads, or chlorate mixtures, are very prone to ignition by the friction and static electricity and sparks generated when packing the material inside the tube or attaching the end caps, causing many injuries or deaths amongst builders.[1] Sharp objects such as nails or broken glass are sometimes added to the outer shell or inside of the bomb to increase potential injury, damage, and death.

Obviously if a government or military were to decide to blow up a gas pipeline, they would use professional explosives, they would work under water.

Yes, I’m aware of a pipeline pig. A self propelled maintenance pig could have been used, or a standard pig if the gas was appropriately controlled.

We don’t know how long ago this sabotage was planned.

Edit (29th September): Having read a comment from someone who worked with pigs and on pipelines, it now appears unlikely a pig could have been used without the pressure change being detected at the German end. Plus there are practical problems in using a pig.

So it looks far more likely that external explosives were placed on, near to or attached to the pipelines.

 

[Cloud Strife]

We don’t know how long ago this sabotage was planned.

Russia isn't China, but I would strongly suspect that this was intended to happen in correlation with the Baltic Pipe opening. It sends a chilling (literally) message to Poland that the pipeline can be blown up, especially as there's around 275km of pipeline underwater.

 

[Ediswan]

Assuming that Gasprom has control of the far end of the pipeline there would be nothing stopping them from allowing just enough gas through to push the pig - for maintenance purposes, of course.

Maybe. The damage from an internal explosion would be distinctive. People will be looking. Whether the findings would be made public is a whole different question.

A self propelled maintenance pig could have been used, or a standard pig if the gas was appropriately controlled.

I can't find any evidence of a commercial self-propelled pig with anything like the required range. Happy to be corrected.

 

[Gloster]

I can't find any evidence of a commercial self-propelled pig with anything like the required range. Happy to be corrected.

It doesn’t need to be a commercial one: I am sure the military or the relevant agency (SVR?) could come up with something.

 

[Russel]

As with Covid, this forum is one of the most level-headed, reassuring discussion platforms I've found.

Thank you to everyone posting in this thread, putting things into context and not just posting scare tactic headlines is much appreciated.

 

[Giugiaro]

Poland doesn't. As it stands, we don't have enough gas to get through the winter. The Baltic Pipe, LNG deliveries and what exists domestically and in reserve just isn't enough. Combined with zero coal reserves (!!), it's going to be a pretty rubbish winter here.

Don't forget that the EU mechanism also requires countries with less dependence on Gas to fill up reserves to support other countries through the next season.
Portugal already has an energy saving plan for 2022-2023, in order to have enough energy for itself and other EU member states during the next 12 months.

 

[Cdd89]

I still find myself at a complete loss to explain the pipeline sabotage, which really should be the #1 story.

Russia ought to be the prime suspect for any hostile acts, but I can see zero rational motive for them having done so. I know a couple were suggested upthread, but it seems like a very expensive way to send a message, and counter to their entire strategy [which had a fair chance of success] which has been hoping that EU countries reverse sanctions once things get tough.

On the other hand lots of other countries have possible motives, from countries buying discount gas from Russia and wanting that to continue (weak motive), to countries currently selling gas to European countries at inflated prices (medium motive), to countries keen to ensure that Russian gas-dependent EU countries can’t change their mind and reverse sanctions on Russia (strong motive).