Russia invades Ukraine

[Cloud Strife]

Some reports coming through that Ukrainian troops may be in Lysychansk already...

Apparently not yet, though Bilogirovka has been liberated. It's about 17km from Lysychansk, but I think the real story is in Lyman. Most good sources agree that the Russian forces in Lyman are in deep trouble: they aren't being reinforced and what exists of them is a mess of whatever remained after the Ukrainian counterattack. Ukraine probably doesn't even have to do very much, it'll be enough to simply keep pounding them as and when they can.

But I think the most interesting thing is that the Russian reserves appear to be finished. They've got nothing left, and I wouldn't be shocked if they start throwing women from the "LDPR" into the war.

IMO, at this moment, the only thing that can save Russia from defeat is a brutal European winter. I don't know how the situation is elsewhere, but in Poland, the gas situation is dire. Our storage facilities are full, but it's only enough for around 1.5 to 2 months of normal winter usage. The Baltic Pipe hasn't been fully contracted, and the LNG terminal on the Baltic Sea just isn't big enough. People here will probably accept gas rationing as the price of beating up Russia, but there are major questions about other countries.

 

[najaB]

IMO, at this moment, the only thing that can save Russia from defeat is a brutal European winter. I don't know how the situation is elsewhere, but in Poland, the gas situation is dire. Our storage facilities are full, but it's only enough for around 1.5 to 2 months of normal winter usage. The Baltic Pipe hasn't been fully contracted, and the LNG terminal on the Baltic Sea just isn't big enough. People here will probably accept gas rationing as the price of beating up Russia, but there are major questions about other countries.

It's early days yet, but there are weak signals for a colder than average winter. Seems like La Niña conditions are starting to develop, and that would favour cold weather in Europe.

 

[brad465]

IMO, at this moment, the only thing that can save Russia from defeat is a brutal European winter. I don't know how the situation is elsewhere, but in Poland, the gas situation is dire. Our storage facilities are full, but it's only enough for around 1.5 to 2 months of normal winter usage. The Baltic Pipe hasn't been fully contracted, and the LNG terminal on the Baltic Sea just isn't big enough. People here will probably accept gas rationing as the price of beating up Russia, but there are major questions about other countries.

Germany's storage is just shy of 90% full, while being well ahead of its target for filling up, and it was able to get there with no more than 20% of NS1 capacity flows most of the time. France are also starting to get all their nuclear reactors back up and running.

But even a brutal winter may not be enough for Putin, as recent Ukraine progress means leaders can convince their populations more easily to ride out the winter with a view to it being all over by next spring/summer. If no recent counteroffensives took place, or they were swiftly stopped and the stalemate continued, then a very cold winter could well be enough.

 

[WatcherZero]

According to all the newspaper this morning Truss will be pledging at the UN conference on Wednesday to spend the same again on military aid to Ukraine as the UK will have spent during 2022, £2.3bn so far.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 20 Sep 2022 ==

So are the rumours that they financed the development of Hrim-2 just that then? I honestly don’t know incidentally, it’s just what was reported at the time and doesn’t seem particularly unlikely, to me anyway.

its unlikely to be Hrim 2, the project was quietly cancelled a couple of years ago on VFM grounds when Ukraine reorganised its procurement to focus on more immediately applicable equipment for its forces. There were some launch tests in 2016 and they had about three further prototypes ready, like with the small number of completed Neptune’s its unlikely we will see more as the rocket factory that produced them both was destroyed in April.

The attacks on Russia particularly Belgorod are being carried out with drones and have been for months. The attacks on Crimea are almost certanly being achieved by putting truck launchers on boats and sailing them halfway So they are within range, taking advantage of the Russian navy pulling back to sitting in and around Sevastopol. I believe they later confirmed they were Himars strikes.

 

[DustyBin]

According to all the newspaper this morning Truss will be pledging at the UN conference on Wednesday to spend the same again on military aid to Ukraine as the UK will have spent during 2022, £2.3bn so far.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 20 Sep 2022 ==



its unlikely to be Hrim 2, the project was quietly cancelled a couple of years ago on VFM grounds when Ukraine reorganised its procurement to focus on more immediately applicable equipment for its forces. There were some launch tests in 2016 and they had about three further prototypes ready, like with the small number of completed Neptune’s its unlikely we will see more as the rocket factory that produced them both was destroyed in April.

The attacks on Russia particularly Belgorod are being carried out with drones and have been for months. The attacks on Crimea are almost certanly being achieved by putting truck launchers on boats and sailing them halfway So they are within range, taking advantage of the Russian navy pulling back to sitting in and around Sevastopol. I believe they later confirmed they were Himars strikes.

Interesting, thanks. I wasn’t aware that they were attacking Crimea from the sea, although it wouldn’t be the first time the Ukrainians have improvised to good effect!

 

[brad465]

Prediction: said areas "vote" in favour of becoming part of Russia, then Putin claims Ukraine are attacking Russian soil to the home population as an excuse for mobilisation to try and bolster his army struggling in Ukraine:

Ukraine war: Occupied areas call urgent vote to join Russia

As Ukraine's counter-offensive gathers pace, Russian-backed officials declare plans for an urgent vote.

www.bbc.co.uk

Almost seven months after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, four areas under Moscow's control have announced plans for urgent so-called referendums on joining Russia.
Russia's invasion has stalled in recent months and Ukraine has recaptured swathes of territory in the north-east.
Now Russian-backed officials in the east and south say they want votes on joining Russia starting this week.
Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, after a vote widely condemned as a sham.
The international community has never recognised the annexation, but it has long been clear that Russia intends to rubber-stamp its takeover of other occupied regions in the same way. Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said that "sham 'referendums' will not change anything".
However, annexing more Ukrainian territory would enable the Kremlin to claim Russia itself was coming under attack from Nato weapons.
The deputy head of Russia's Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, said early on Tuesday that holding votes in the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk - also known as Donbas - would correct "historical justice" and be irreversible: "After the amendments to the constitution of our state, no future leader of Russia, no official, will be able to reverse these decisions."
Soon afterwards the two breakaway Russian-backed authorities in Donetsk and Luhansk said they would stage votes on 23-27 September. They were both recognised as independent by President Vladimir Putin three days before Russian troops invaded Ukraine from north, east and south.
Russian-installed officials in the southern region of Kherson said they would also hold a vote, and a similar declaration came from Russian-occupied areas of Zaporizhzhia. Russian state media claimed people would be able to vote in person or remotely.
For months, Russian-installed authorities have tried to hold self-styled referendums. There was never any hope of a free or fair vote, and the continuing war has made it impractical even to try to annex areas not fully under their control. Ukraine's counter-offensives have made that harder still.
While most of Luhansk has been in Russian hands since July, on Monday the Ukrainian leader in Luhansk announced that the army had recaptured the village of Bilohorivka.

 

[Annetts key]

Question: how do you vote if you are busy running away?…

 

[adc82140]

Also a chance for some more nuclear willy waving from Medvedev and his ilk.

 

[Pete_uk]

An announcement is due soon from Pootin...

 

[Cowley]

An announcement is due soon from Pootin...

I must admit that I’ve got quite an uneasy feeling about this.

 

[GS250]

Also a chance for some more nuclear willy waving from Medvedev and his ilk.

Yes I've seen this latest nonsense. Anyone would think we don't actually have the ability to do exactly the same to all of Russia's cities.

His comments probably born out jealousy of what has been happening in London recently.

 

[adc82140]

His address is over an hour late.

Possible reasons:

1.Internal strife in the Kremlin
2. He's not decided what he's saying yet
3. He never intended to give it, and it was all to distract from the things being said about him at the UN.

As far as the Kremlin mouthpieces RT and Tass are concerned, not even a hint of a planned address. You'd think they'd be talking it up.

 

[brad465]

His address is over an hour late.

Possible reasons:

1.Internal strife in the Kremlin
2. He's not decided what he's saying yet
3. He never intended to give it, and it was all to distract from the things being said about him at the UN.

As far as the Kremlin mouthpieces RT and Tass are concerned, not even a hint of a planned address. You'd think they'd be talking it up.

And still not happened at time of posting. It's possible he might make an early morning announcement in local time, so I'd be on alert to the possibility of something having been said/enacted on waking.

The Russian Stock Market has also crashed on fears of an escalation.

 

[DustyBin]

Also a chance for some more nuclear willy waving from Medvedev and his ilk.

I’m sure Olga will have something to offer, being the charmer that she is!

I must admit that I’ve got quite an uneasy feeling about this.

I know exactly where you’re coming from but it no longer worries me, not really anyway. Maybe I’ve become hardened to the constant threat (exactly the opposite to what Putin wants), although I’m also confident(ish) that we’re dealing with utter clowns who think nothing of making fools of themselves on the world stage.

Whilst the deterrent factor means we won’t be seeing squadrons of F-35s wizzing around splatting anything with a Z on it, we need to continue to support Ukraine regardless of the ridiculous Russian rhetoric.

His address is over an hour late.

Possible reasons:

1.Internal strife in the Kremlin
2. He's not decided what he's saying yet
3. He never intended to give it, and it was all to distract from the things being said about him at the UN.

As far as the Kremlin mouthpieces RT and Tass are concerned, not even a hint of a planned address. You'd think they'd be talking it up.

Anything is possible with this lot!

 

[brad465]

Partial military mobilisation announced:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-62970683

Putin says partial mobilisation starts today​

Putin says that it's necesasry to take an urgent decision to protect our people in the "liberated lands".
"That's why I asked the ministry of defence to agree to 'partial mobilisation'".
He says the decree has already been signed and that the partial mobilisation starts today.
He says that all citizens who will be mobilised will have full armed forces status.

 

[DustyBin]

Partial military mobilisation announced:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-62970683

Fairly predictable really. Obviously not content with terrorising the people of Ukraine he wants to do the same to his own people now as well. I would have thought that any reservists who actually want to fight would be doing so by now?

 

[Howardh]

Fairly predictable really. Obviously not content with terrorising the people of Ukraine he wants to do the same to his own people now as well. I would have thought that any reservists who actually want to fight would be doing so by now?

If I were Russian that would have made me asking "what's going on?" and fearful of a western backlash ie. nuclear. So it could do the opposite of what he wants and maybe face an uprising in his own country? He looks a very worried, desperate and ill man and a lot of people who will be called up won't want to be called up.

 

[DustyBin]

If I were Russian that would have made me asking "what's going on?" and fearful of a western backlash ie. nuclear. So it could do the opposite of what he wants and maybe face an uprising in his own country? He looks a very worried, desperate and ill man and a lot of people who will be called up won't want to be called up.

I think it’s a very risky move on Putin’s part. These reservists demonstrably don’t want to fight or they’d have gone voluntarily. Putin appears to be well and truly in “personal survival mode” and is acting against the interests of Russia as a country (in reality he has been for years but he’s really stepping it up now). Hopefully this will become apparent to a critical mass of ordinary Russians and we’ll see him and his regime removed from within. I appreciate we’ve been saying this since February but the longer this goes on, and the more miserable life gets for the Russian people, the more likely it becomes.

 

[Howardh]

I think it’s a very risky move on Putin’s part. These reservists demonstrably don’t want to fight or they’d have gone voluntarily. Putin appears to be well and truly in “personal survival mode” and is acting against the interests of Russia as a country (in reality he has been for years but he’s really stepping it up now). Hopefully this will become apparent to a critical mass of ordinary Russians and we’ll see him and his regime removed from within. I appreciate we’ve been saying this since February but the longer this goes on, and the more miserable life gets for the Russian people, the more likely it becomes.

Perhaps the "delay" was because Putin wanted full (male?) conscription and was talked out of it by his inner circle fearing a backlash? You would need an army to quell the backlash, but half of them would be that backlash (and the other half in Ukraine)! He looked rather sheepish to me, as if he'd been given a good talking to the day before?!

 

[Class 33]

Putin threatening nuclear attacks on Britain again!!! Absolute evil b*****d. How worried should we be that he'll actually do this? I would say he is mad and evil enough to do so. This is extremely extremely worryingly.

 

[DustyBin]

Perhaps the "delay" was because Putin wanted full (male?) conscription and was talked out of it by his inner circle fearing a backlash? You would need an army to quell the backlash, but half of them would be that backlash (and the other half in Ukraine)! He looked rather sheepish to me, as if he'd been given a good talking to the day before?!

Entirely possible.

If reports on social media are to be believed there is panic in Moscow (and I’d imagine elsewhere) over this. It certainly raises the question as to how people would react to full mobilisation.

 

[adc82140]

Perhaps the "delay" was because Putin wanted full (male?) conscription and was talked out of it by his inner circle fearing a backlash? You would need an army to quell the backlash, but half of them would be that backlash (and the other half in Ukraine)! He looked rather sheepish to me, as if he'd been given a good talking to the day before?!

I think it was the other way round. He didn't want to admit that his "Special Military Operation" was a failure, but was given an ultimatum by certain elements within the power structure to escalate or face a challenge to his existence.

 

[DustyBin]

Putin threatening nuclear attacks on Britain again!!! Absolute evil b*****d. How worried should we be that he'll actually do this? I would say he is mad and evil enough to do so. This is extremely extremely worryingly.

It’s the usual nonsense, mostly for domestic consumption. Putin knows one way or another he’s toast if he orders a nuclear attack against us, whether by way of an instant bullet to the head or our response in kind. Those around him know this too.

I agree he’s evil but he’s not mad, he’s trying to “win” and there’s no victory in nuclear war. Don’t get me wrong, threats of nuclear annihilation aren’t what you want to wake up to, but I view it as nothing more than bluster.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 21 Sep 2022 ==

I think it was the other way round. He didn't want to admit that his "Special Military Operation" was a failure, but was given an ultimatum by certain elements within the power structure to escalate or face a challenge to his existence.

This also makes sense and is entirely possible. This is why his entire regime needs to be removed; there’s a very real risk of his replacement being worse.

 

[Loppylugs]

According to the Russians they have lost less than 6000 men in battle out of all those who amassed on the Ukrainian border in February, so why the need for 300,000 extras? Time the Russian public woke up and smelled the coffee, although it won't be Starbucks !!

 

[adc82140]

His nuclear rhetoric is doing just what it's intended to, and the Western media are acting as his lackey. He wants to turn the public against support for Ukraine, and a bit of a nuclear threat will do nicely for him.

If he was to go down the tactical nuclear route, he would immediately lose the support of China. And he needs that more than anything.

 

[najaB]

His nuclear rhetoric is doing just what it's intended to, and the Western media are acting as his lackey. He wants to turn the public against support for Ukraine, and a bit of a nuclear threat will do nicely for him.

I admit I've not look at all sources but all the reporting I've seen on this has been pretty much "Putin has threatened, but there's no reason to think he's serious".

 

[kristiang85]

Putin threatening nuclear attacks on Britain again!!! Absolute evil b*****d. How worried should we be that he'll actually do this? I would say he is mad and evil enough to do so. This is extremely extremely worryingly.

Even if Putin wanted to, his generals - who are (hopefully) more sane - would see it as a suicidal move. I just can't see how it would happen.

 

[adc82140]

Interestingly the Putin mouthpiece RT is translating his comments about nuclear weapons as being a tactical response to any NATO attack using such weapons, which is more in line with the Russian nuclear doctrine. I think a lot of what he said was for domestic consumption to justify the mobilisation.

 

[najaB]

I think a lot of what he said was for domestic consumption to justify the mobilisation.

Was any of it not for domestic consumption?

 

[adc82140]

Was any of it not for domestic consumption?

I think some of it was designed for the likes of the Daily Express to pick up on, and duly frighten its readers