Russia invades Ukraine

[najaB]

Seems to be the case, judging by the current reports on the topic. I suspect that Ukraine has decided to fall back, as there's not much to be gained by fighting on there.

The key question now is the Bakhmut road, and ultimately the Sloviansk-Donetsk road. I strongly suspect that Russia will give up on any further offensives if they can control the Sloviansk-Donetsk road, as there's nothing much of interest to the west of it.

Yeah. I'm just watching an update video, seems like a retreat by the Ukrainian forces.

Edit: I expected them to hold Lysychansk for a while but I guess they decided that it wasn't worth it. That said, I think the fact that Melitopol is starting to be bombarded by Ukrainian HIMARS signals a start to a new phase of the war.

 

[DustyBin]

Why should the non-rail/transport sections of this site be shuttered due to such disagreements? I certainly don't see this thread as a means to facilitate a personal dispute with anyone else and using that on it's own as justification for getting rid of entire sections of the site is pretty flimsy imo, especially when the vast majority of users here abide by the forum rules. Rather, to me at least, such a suggestion smacks of 'I don't like these people's opinions. Get rid of part of the site so they can't openly express them, period.'

Alternatively, it may be for the best you stop reading/contributing to this thread if it's really bothering you this much rather than punishing those who are using it to keep up to date with the conflict's latest developments and nothing more by jettisoning this part of the site altogether.

And for the record, when such contributions consist almost entirely of flagrant half-truths, bald-faced lies and pro-Putin propaganda copied/pasted almost word-for-word, you should've known before hitting 'post reply' they'd be called out for what they were. It only becomes a slanging match if those involved decide to respond to each other in a manner befitting that phrase. What I've seen in this thread falls far short of that definition for the most part and is for the most part cordial and respectful; I've seen far worse on other forums.

Some of it is a tad blunt and on the nose (no disrespect to anyone here I should stress), but when one trades in reality and fact-based research (crucial for a topic as serious as this one), it's something I'll willingly tolerate.

Very well said!

 

[Strathclyder]

Very well said!

Thanks, but the fact I have to say it at all is as troubling as it is laughable. Despite it being framed by the user in question as a 'improvement' to the site, it just smacks of a way to shut down any sort of debate and/or opinions they personally disagree with, not to mention punishing users who are using it to keep up to date on the conflict's latest developments.

The long and short of it is simply this: Don't like this thread? Don't contribute to it. Simple as that.

 

[kylemore]

Thanks, but the fact I have to say it at all is as troubling as it is laughable. Despite it being framed by the user in question as a 'improvement' to the site, it just smacks of a way to shut down any sort of debate and/or opinions they personally disagree with, not to mention punishing users who are using it to keep up to date on the conflict's latest developments.

The long and short of it is simply this: Don't like this thread? Don't contribute to it. Simple as that.

I wasn't making a hard and fast proposal - hence the use of words such as "might" and "perhaps". More of a discussion point really.

One thing I have noticed is that interest is waning - nearly two and a half days since the last comment - and that appears to be reflected in the wider world.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

One thing I have noticed is that interest is waning - nearly two and a half days since the last comment - and that appears to be reflected in the wider world.

While there's always going to be an inevitable waning of interest in an issue as time goes on, I suspect the recent lack of posting in this thread is mainly because so many people have been focused on the drama around Boris Johnson resigning: Look how many posts have been added to the Conservatives/Johnson thread in this forum over the last few days. I'd expect that as soon as that story settles down, interest will move back to other issues, including Ukraine.

On the subject of Ukraine + Boris, Russia's responses to Boris resigning are rather amusing. It seems that, in the Kremlin's eyes, Boris' downfall was caused largely by his support for Ukraine.

A couple of key quotes from https://www.reuters.com/world/kremlin-boris-johnson-we-dont-like-him-either-2022-07-07/:

"The clown is going," said Vyacheslav Volodin, the speaker of Russia's lower house of parliament. "He is one of the main ideologues of the war against Russia until the last Ukrainian. European leaders should think about where such a policy leads."

Maria Zakharova, the top spokeswoman in Russia's foreign ministry, said Johnson's fall was a symptom of the decline of the West, which she said was riven by political, ideological and economic crisis.

"The moral of the story is: do not seek to destroy Russia," Zakharova said. "Russia cannot be destroyed. You can break your teeth on it - and then choke on them."

Talk about parallel realities...

 

[najaB]

One thing I have noticed is that interest is waning - nearly two and a half days since the last comment - and that appears to be reflected in the wider world.

Largely because nothing of significance has happened in the last few days - the Ukrainian withdrawal from Lychansk and the Russian withdrawal from Snake Island were the last big changes of note. In the meantime, we have had a little happening on the domestic political front.

 

[DustyBin]

This is an interesting development in Kazakh-Russian relations, which appear to be deteriorating rapidly:

Kazakhstan withdraws from the CIS agreement on the Interstate Monetary Committee​

Kazakhstan withdraws from the 1995 Commonwealth of Independent States Agreement on the Interstate Monetary Committee.

This is stated in the decree of the President of Kazakhstan Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev, ZONAkz reports.

The Interstate Currency Committee was created for cooperation between post-Soviet countries in the currency, payment and credit sphere, as well as for the improvement (convergence) of the currency legislation of the countries that are parties to the agreement. It was assumed that it would promote the development of economic cooperation and ensure the mutual convertibility of national currencies.

The document on withdrawal from the agreement has already entered into force.

• On June 17, the President of Kazakhstan Tokayev stated at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, where Putin was also present, that his country will not recognize the "DPR" and "LPR". Later, Tokayev announced that he plans to increase oil supplies to Europe.
• After that, "trouble" began in the countryʼs oil industry. The Primorye District Court of Novorossiysk closed an important terminal for the export of oil from Kazakhstan to Europe for 30 days.
• On July 6, an explosion took place at the Kazakh Tengiz field, killing two people and injuring three others.
• On the same day, it became known that Kazakhstan is considering a ban on the import of goods to Russia and Belarus that have been sanctioned by the European Union, Great Britain and the United States. The Ministry of Finance of the country has published an order for public discussion, which will last until July 22.
• On July 7, Reuters wrote that Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev instructed the government to diversify oil supply routes to Europe bypassing Russia.

Kazakhstan withdraws from the CIS agreement on the Interstate Monetary Committee

Kazakhstan withdraws from the 1995 CIS agreement on the Interstate Monetary Committee. The document has already entered into force

babel.ua

Separately, Uzbekistan is pursuing closer ties with the EU which I’m sure Putin will be delighted about……

 

[Strathclyder]

One thing I have noticed is that interest is waning - nearly two and a half days since the last comment - and that appears to be reflected in the wider world.

I refer you to the previous replies by @DymanicSpirit and @najaB in response to this as they beat me to it. A lull in major events doesn't reflect a loss of interest in the wider world, far from it. And besides, recent domestic events have kinda overshadowed every other ongoing story, such is the way the news cycle works. Once that settles, expect interest in this topic to pick back up.

This is an interesting development in Kazakh-Russian relations, which appear to be deteriorating rapidly:

Kazakhstan withdraws from the CIS agreement on the Interstate Monetary Committee

Kazakhstan withdraws from the 1995 CIS agreement on the Interstate Monetary Committee. The document has already entered into force

babel.ua

Separately, Uzbekistan is pursuing closer ties with the EU which I’m sure Putin will be delighted about……

Color me unsurprised. All I can really say is, expect more of this in the coming weeks/months.

 

[TheEdge]

This is an interesting development in Kazakh-Russian relations, which appear to be deteriorating rapidly:

Separately, Uzbekistan is pursuing closer ties with the EU which I’m sure Putin will be delighted about……

Much like @Strathclyder this should be a shock to no one. Russia has barged into one of the relatively few non-NATO ex-SSRs to try and enforce his will. As an entirely uninformed outsider I'd guess the only ex-SSRs not nervous at the moment are Belarus and Turkmenistan.

 

[Strathclyder]

Much like @Strathclyder this should be a shock to no one. Russia has barged into one of the relatively few non-NATO ex-SSRs to try and enforce his will. As an entirely uninformed outsider I'd guess the only ex-SSRs not nervous at the moment are Belarus and Turkmenistan.

Indeed. Putin has only himself to blame for this shift in policy/stances of said ex-SSRs by his wading into Ukraine, no matter how much he and his apologists will ramble to the contrary.

 

[Busaholic]

I wasn't making a hard and fast proposal - hence the use of words such as "might" and "perhaps". More of a discussion point really.

One thing I have noticed is that interest is waning - nearly two and a half days since the last comment - and that appears to be reflected in the wider world.

Your (stated) views appear to match those propagated by the loathsome Galloway, whose rantings I force myself to watch from time to time, just as my father studied the ravings of Oswald Mosley before, as a young man, he joined the Eighth Army and commanded a tank in the Western Desert, and later Italy. He might have voted Conservative for some time after WW2, but he loathed fascism and dictators with a passion, and I knew his belief that Galloway displayed all the trademarks from way back.

Oh, by the way, Galloway's output now is peddling the line that there is an opposition party to Putin's alive and well in Russia, and GG, if he were a resident (and, please God, let him be) would vote for this stooge party and leader.

 

[DustyBin]

Color me unsurprised. All I can really say is, expect more of this in the coming weeks/months.

Much like @Strathclyder this should be a shock to no one. Russia has barged into one of the relatively few non-NATO ex-SSRs to try and enforce his will. As an entirely uninformed outsider I'd guess the only ex-SSRs not nervous at the moment are Belarus and Turkmenistan.

Yes, it’s clear that these countries have remained in the “Russosphere” out of fear more than anything. Ultimately however nobody likes a bully, and if they’re going to sever ties this is probably the perfect opportunity, with the Russian military being somewhat preoccupied elsewhere.

As per my previous post, Uzbekistan appears to be looking to the West but what will Kazakstan do? The same or China? Either way it’s another great achievement on Putin’s part……

 

[TheEdge]

Yes, it’s clear that these countries have remained in the “Russosphere” out of fear more than anything. Ultimately however nobody likes a bully, and if they’re going to sever ties this is probably the perfect opportunity, with the Russian military being somewhat preoccupied elsewhere.

As per my previous post, Uzbekistan appears to be looking to the West but what will Kazakstan do? The same or China? Either way it’s another great achievement on Putin’s part……

It's definitely an opportunity to make a move for these nations. Especially now Russia wants to take Alaska back!

Kazakhstan, if not the West maybe China and perhaps India? I don't really know enough about the politics to make anything more than a total guess. They may be especially nervous given the fact that Baikonur Cosmodrome is in Kazak territory and Russia obviously has no concern with annexing territory with a disregard for previous agreements. Or it might be one hell of a bargaining chip given its international importance.

 

[najaB]

They may be especially nervous given the fact that Baikonur Cosmodrome is in Kazak territory and Russia obviously has no concern with annexing territory with a disregard for previous agreements. Or it might be one hell of a bargaining chip given its international importance.

That's why Russia has been trying so hard to get Plesetsk Cosmodrome up and running so that they don't depend on Kazakhstan, though that project is running many years behind schedule.

 

[brad465]

Does anyone know what the current situation is regarding deployment of Western weapons in Ukraine? There seems to be increasing fatigue in the war in sites online which previously were dominated by "stop Putin at all costs" now turning more towards "we need a diplomatic solution immediately, even if Ukraine have to cede more territory" (I suspect much of this is latter voices becoming louder rather than many changing their mind).

If it doesn't look like the war is going in Ukraine's favour come the Autumn I can strongly see more demands and resultant action in reducing sanctions and/or appeasement generally. I can see Ukrainian forces holding out a lot longer than the West's resolve, but without the latter Ukraine's forces will struggle to carry on.

 

[najaB]

If it doesn't look like the war is going in Ukraine's favour come the Autumn I can strongly see more demands and resultant action in reducing sanctions and/or appeasement generally. I can see Ukrainian forces holding out a lot longer than the West's resolve, but without the latter Ukraine's forces will struggle to carry on.

I don't know. My guess is that the west will continue to finance the war through at least winter - European countries are putting a lot of effort into preparing to survive a winter without Russian gas. Would the resolve last into a second year? That's less clear.

 

[bspahh]

Does anyone know what the current situation is regarding deployment of Western weapons in Ukraine?

https://sundries.com.ua/en/reznikov-himars-has-already-made-a-huge-change-on-the-battlefield/ says:

NSDC Secretary Oleksiy Danilov said that Ukraine currently has nine HIMARS and similar salvo systems provided by the US and its allies, but in order to shift the front line in the east, Ukraine needs dozens more HIMARS systems.

It was in an interview with the Wall Street Journal

Russian and Ukrainian Forces Prepare for Next Phase of Battle for Donbas

Russia’s invading army shelled the positions of Ukrainian defenders along the front line as both sides girded for the next battles for control of Ukraine’s east.

www.wsj.com

 

[Giugiaro]

Regardless of what the Russians said, the war still progresses in Ukraine, and according to DefMon3 on Twitter, this weekend was a HIMARS fest.

Though like Adam Something said on Youtube, Ukraine can only recover territory with far more equipment than what it currently has. Right now, all that it's doing annoys the Russian forces and makes progress slower.

The key word here is progress.

 

[najaB]

Though like Adam Something said on Youtube, Ukraine can only recover territory with far more equipment than what it currently has. Right now, all that it's doing annoys the Russian forces and makes progress slower.

There are those who see Ukraine v Russia in the same light as Vietnam vs USA or Afghanistan vs USSR - the goal isn't to win, but rather to make the other guy lose. From that perspective, it's in the collective West's interest to have Russia invest a lot in a war that they eventually end up not winning.

The only real issue is what will China make of the whole mess?

 

[Bletchleyite]

There are those who see Ukraine v Russia in the same light as Vietnam vs USA or Afghanistan vs USSR - the goal isn't to win, but rather to make the other guy lose.

Well, it kind of is. Ukraine's "win" is just that Russia goes away - loses, if you will - it doesn't want bits of Russia, it just wants its own territory left alone.

It's not like World War 2 where the Allies actually wanted rid of Hitler. There's no objective of taking over Russia; it would be nice to get rid of Putin but that's not the objective of this war.

 

[najaB]

Well, it kind of is. Ukraine's "win" is just that Russia goes away - loses, if you will - it doesn't want bits of Russia, it just wants its own territory left alone.

Which is exactly what I mean - Ukraine doesn't need to "beat" Russia - they just want Russia to go all the way back home.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Which is exactly what I mean - Ukraine doesn't need to "beat" Russia - they just want Russia to go all the way back home.

The problem is that Putin sees more and more former Communist state areas as "home".

 

[najaB]

The problem is that Putin sees more and more former Communist state areas as "home".

I have an up-to-date atlas he can borrow if he needs one!

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I have an up-to-date atlas he can borrow if he needs one!

Quite so, but Putin's atlas is dated the year before the Berlin Wall came down...

 

[Bletchleyite]

I have an up-to-date atlas he can borrow if he needs one!

He might find this useful:

Russia vs. Not Russia map. From Twitter but I have no idea who originated it.

 

[ainsworth74]

He might find this useful:

Russia vs. Not Russia map. From Twitter but I have no idea who originated it.

Of course that itself will soon by out of date as "Baltic Sea" will need to be renamed to "NATO's Lake"

 

[Giugiaro]

The only real issue is what will China make of the whole mess?

China will only do what's in its own interest.
Its main goals are to expand its geopolitical influence, erase any dissident behaviour in its territory and take over Taiwan.

But it can't allow Russia to tarnish China's image more than it can do to itself. I haven't seen proper reports of China trading weaponry for cheap oil and gas from Russia.
Only that China used to be a net importer of Russian weapons, not the other way around.

If anyone knows of any reports on weapon trading with Russia, please post!

 

[Gostav]

The only real issue is what will China make of the whole mess?

China would be not in a hurry. They see clearly now that Europe, or the whole West where lacks production capacity, there used to be European parliamentarians calling for sanctions on China, but not anymore. For China, a weak Europe is equally good for them.

Mission 2027 - Chinese Military Will Be 'Ready For Action' Against Taiwan & Allies In 5 Years - Defense Ministry

The Chinese Military will be capable of fighting Taiwan and its allies together by 2027, a Taiwanese Ministry of Defense (MND) report said on June 5, according to various Taiwanese media reports. According to a report cited by Taipei Times, China has set a goal of modernizing its warfare...

eurasiantimes.com

In any case, Europe is too far from China and Taiwan is more important for them.

 

[najaB]

Its main goals are to expand its geopolitical influence, erase any dissident behaviour in its territory and take over Taiwan.

I wonder how much China really wants to take over Taiwan as opposed to using threats of invasion as a way to keep 'the West' from meddling too much. It seems to me that there is very little actual gain to be had from a takeover, and unlike the 1950s and 60s pretty much everyone recognises the CCP as the legitimate government of mainland China.

 

[Gostav]

I wonder how much China really wants to take over Taiwan as opposed to using threats of invasion as a way to keep 'the West' from meddling too much. It seems to me that there is very little actual gain to be had from a takeover, and unlike the 1950s and 60s pretty much everyone recognises the CCP as the legitimate government of mainland China.

Island chain strategy - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

They want to break the "island chain" and Taiwan is the most important part. If Taiwan is taken, the first island chain will be completely broken.