Russia invades Ukraine

[Yew]

I'm not sure, however there are indicators - such as the advanced nature of many of the missile systems - that indicate a post Soviet origin.

There are certainly some modern systems, particularly in air defence. But I’m reality they make up a small fraction of the equipment that Russia is using.

 

[najaB]

There are certainly some modern systems, particularly in air defence. But I’m reality they make up a small fraction of the equipment that Russia is using.

There certainly was higher percentage of precision weapons used early in the campaign as opposed to the almost entirely unguided weapons being used currently.

 

[REVUpminster]

All the comments here; I wonder what influence various governments have even on a little ole.railway forum. Digital Spy had very partial moderators on some threads that were eventually closed due to lack of impartiality. I haven't looked at their Ukraine coverage.

 

[adc82140]

All the comments here; I wonder what influence various governments have even on a little ole.railway forum. Digital Spy had very partial moderators on some threads that were eventually closed due to lack of impartiality. I haven't looked at their Ukraine coverage.

DS closed down their politics and general discussion forums a while back.

 

[Bletchleyite]

All the comments here; I wonder what influence various governments have even on a little ole.railway forum.

UKClimbing, which is a "little ole" climbing and hillwalking forum with a smaller posting volume than this one has (though still quite busy), has been the victim of lots of trolling attacks by all manner of people who are clearly not acting in the UK's interests - most notably pro Brexit*, COVID denying* and pro Russian. I thus think the paid trolls are attacking everything, and they're often not *quite* as obvious as on Twitter where you can usually weed them out by odd usernames, lack of profile photo and low post numbers.

* Being pro Brexit and anti-mask etc are perfectly valid views, but you can *tell* these are trolls and not people with sincerely held views by how they post.

 

[kylemore]

DS closed down their politics and general discussion forums a while back.

To be honest that might be a good idea.

Views on this topic are entrenched, I'm not going to change the views of the majority on here and they're not going to change mine. So apart from having a good old slanging match what is actually achieved?

There are plenty of places people can go to express their rage about Putin - or vice versa, so perhaps we should stick to Rail and Transport topics.

 

[takno]

To be honest that might be a good idea.

Views on this topic are entrenched, I'm not going to change the views of the majority on here and they're not going to change mine. So apart from having a good old slanging match what is actually achieved?

There are plenty of places people can go to express their rage about Putin - or vice versa, so perhaps we should stick to Rail and Transport topics.

You should feel free to stick to what you like. I don't think most people on the thread see it as a personal argument with you, so we'll maybe all still hang around and chat about the latest developments.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

There are plenty of places people can go to express their rage about Putin - or vice versa, so perhaps we should stick to Rail and Transport topics.

Have you not seen the "What's is wrong with the Conservatives/the Labour Party/the Lib Dems " threads on this website where people can air their views (within reason, so long as the website rules are abided by). What's wrong with the Quizzes and Games forum where people can enjoy the varied topics on that part of the website.?

Why should we confine the thread topics on this website just to suit certain individuals?

 

[bspahh]

There certainly was higher percentage of precision weapons used early in the campaign as opposed to the almost entirely unguided weapons being used currently.

The Ministry of Defence wrote an update on July 2nd on twitter which says that the Russians have been using air-launched anti-ship missiles "because of dwinding supplies of more accurate modern weapons". For the attack on the Kremenchuk shopping centre it says it was:

...highly likely a Kh-32. This is an upgraded version of the Soviet era Kh-22 KITCHEN. Although the Kd-32 has several performance improvements over the Kh-22, it is still not optimised to accurately strike ground targets, especially in an urban environment. This greatly increases the likelihood of collateral damage when targeting built-up areas.

 

[najaB]

There are plenty of places people can go to express their rage about Putin - or vice versa, so perhaps we should stick to Rail and Transport topics.

Feel free to stop reading the thread if it's a nuisance to you.

 

[Strathclyder]

To be honest that might be a good idea.

Views on this topic are entrenched, I'm not going to change the views of the majority on here and they're not going to change mine. So apart from having a good old slanging match what is actually achieved?

There are plenty of places people can go to express their rage about Putin - or vice versa, so perhaps we should stick to Rail and Transport topics.

Why should the non-rail/transport sections of this site be shuttered due to such disagreements? I certainly don't see this thread as a means to facilitate a personal dispute with anyone else and using that on it's own as justification for getting rid of entire sections of the site is pretty flimsy imo, especially when the vast majority of users here abide by the forum rules. Rather, to me at least, such a suggestion smacks of 'I don't like these people's opinions. Get rid of part of the site so they can't openly express them, period.'

Alternatively, it may be for the best you stop reading/contributing to this thread if it's really bothering you this much rather than punishing those who are using it to keep up to date with the conflict's latest developments and nothing more by jettisoning this part of the site altogether.

And for the record, when such contributions consist almost entirely of flagrant half-truths, bald-faced lies and pro-Putin propaganda copied/pasted almost word-for-word, you should've known before hitting 'post reply' they'd be called out for what they were. It only becomes a slanging match if those involved decide to respond to each other in a manner befitting that phrase. What I've seen in this thread falls far short of that definition for the most part and is for the most part cordial and respectful; I've seen far worse on other forums.

Some of it is a tad blunt and on the nose (no disrespect to anyone here I should stress), but when one trades in reality and fact-based research (crucial for a topic as serious as this one), it's something I'll willingly tolerate.

 

[bspahh]

Its useful to discuss issues with people who have a different views about a problem. Attacking someone's views is fine, preferably with some high quality data to back up any assertions. Attacking the person is not fine, and that is the time to hit the "Report" button.

The Russian government has some form for funding troll farms, and not just attacking people who don't agree with them, but attacking countries too. Its not a surprise if there is some kick back against people who post in agreement with them.

 

[dakta]

So apart from having a good old slanging match what is actually achieved?

Good discussion on a topical and current matter. I don't think every conversation needs the aim of swinging an opinion, though I don't think it'd be unreasonable to call out or debunk the absurd as long as you're respectful about it - it's not even strictly for the OP's benefit, it can be good just to be seen to challenge it because whilst I wish some people didn't get their facts from forum posts, sometimes people can read something and assume it comes from a good source. So sometimes the challenge is a good thing for others.

 

[Cloud Strife]

I don't read any Russian media - do you really believe everything you read in the British media?

I do. Your claims are pretty much word-for-word what's coming out of Russian media outlets, even down to the wild claims that Russia is thriving while the West suffers.

Russian energy is finding plenty of customers to replace the economically declining west. They may have to discount to begin with but they're not selling at a loss.

They are finding customers at a substantial discount. From what I remember, it costs around $45 to produce a barrel of Russian oil, and it's believed that it's being sold for $70 to India. That's not great business, especially when you consider the price that they could be getting elsewhere. Furthermore, it makes them dependent on a very unpredictable partner. China will buy, but this is the last thing that Russia needs: being economically dependent on China, especially given the Chinese patience and ability to play the very long game.

Overall increasing world prices for energy can only have the effect of bolstering energy exporters of which Russia is one of the largest.
The US led attempt to put an "Oil price cap" in place is failing miserably.

One other problem is that Russia needs Western technology in order to extract and actually deliver the oil in question.

As for military industrial capacity the proof is in the pudding. The Russians appear to have the capacity to produce virtually limitless quantities of shells and missiles - many of them as advanced or even better in performance than the west's. If you're looking for an industrial economy in it's last throes - just look about you.

That is very much fantasyland stuff. They might be able to produce shells and missiles without any real technology, but those are useless in modern war. All they can do is terrorise civilians, but they won't be able to accurately strike UAF positions with them. The modern stuff requires - again - Western technology, and they don't have it. More to the point, if they *had* such technology, why are they resorting to flinging ancient missiles at Ukraine?

Yes they are having to change where they're sourcing some industrial products including commercial airliner parts (they are after all under a form of blockade), in this they are being assisted by many countries not least China but also by NATO member Turkiye, and this process is proceeding rapidly.

They are trying to source them, but China has no interest in helping them for various reasons. Turkey is also not helping them with such parts, and in fact, Turkish Airlines has taken advantage of the situation to buy Aeroflot's undelivered A350s. That means the only option is to manufacture the parts themselves, but again, they don't have the capability to do so. A good example is with aircraft tyres, which Russia doesn't produce. They will probably be able to create something that works, but it won't be anywhere near the standard of what the West produces. That means blowouts on takeoff/landing, and with it, a higher risk of crashes.

The situation is also critical because Russian companies (using Western technology) were supplying countries such as India. Now, India has turned round and said that they want to be self-reliant, so they're going to cut Russia out of the loop when it comes to military purchases. That means less money in Russian military companies, which in turn means less money to replace Western technology. Russia is essentially heading back to the 1970s in terms of technology. The cars, the military equipment, the planes, everything is headed back to an era where the West will leave them far behind.

It's notable that Putin has signed some kind of order meaning that the economy is now on a war footing. People can be taken from their work and made to work in military production instead, which strongly hints at them not only having supply issues, but also having to move towards labour-intensive activities. That means less labour in the real wealth-producing economy, and so living standards will fall further.

Just one example: the local Tinkoff Bank in Russia will start to charge 1% in fees in Forex accounts. The same bank has empty ATM machines, and this leads to the key problem: the ruble is strong because they simply aren't spending foreign currencies. They're earning a lot of it, but it's not being spent, and so the ruble continues to strengthen. The problem is compounded by the fact that there's nothing really much to buy, because of the sanctions. It's also very difficult to actually buy rubles on the market, so what you're dealing with is an exchange rate that bears no relation to reality.

The latest suggestion is that Russia will start buying currencies from countries that they have friendly or neutral relations with. That means buying up the Indian rupee, the Chinese yuan and so on. Does that really help Russia? Nope.

 

[TwoYellas]

Heard an interesting idea floated by Y.Varafoukis in a recent interview with Owen Jones on YouTube. Which was basically a peace deal involving Russia withdrawing completely from Ukraine in return for Ukrainian neutrality. And a sort of NI style arrangement brokered in the Donbass as apparently it's multi-ethnic and complicated.

It sounded quite plausible if difficult considering the current trajectory which seems like more conflict. But I just wondered if it could work.

 

[gingerheid]

There are some suspicious posters in here, and they're much easier to "identify" in here because Russia's actions are so egregious and indefensible that any form of support for them (however mild) is pretty darn suspicious.

But of course there are people who have had their worldviews formed elsewhere (whether by propaganda or not) and who bring those with them in the places they go. I interacted with a previous suspicious poster only after checking their post history quite carefully to check I (hopefully) wasn't conversing with an employee in a troll farm. What I saw did suggest that they just genuinely held some really extreme views, that they regarded as the only possible rational view. It did come across as that, overall, they were indeed so obsessed with hatred of the west (as represented by its USA figurehead and puppetmaster) they regarded it as inconceivable that anyone might voluntarily choose to support them against Russia unless they had been subject to manipulation. A view of course that most people turn round the opposite direction...

 

[Cloud Strife]

Heard an interesting idea floated by Y.Varafoukis in a recent interview with Owen Jones on YouTube. Which was basically a peace deal involving Russia withdrawing completely from Ukraine in return for Ukrainian neutrality. And a sort of NI style arrangement brokered in the Donbass as apparently it's multi-ethnic and complicated.

It sounded quite plausible if difficult considering the current trajectory which seems like more conflict. But I just wondered if it could work.

The problem with Ukrainian neutrality is that it benefits Russia. The deal would have to include Ukraine being allowed to arm itself with military equipment from whatever supplier they wish, which would be unacceptable for Russia. Otherwise, Ukraine would be in the position that they would have to rebuild without NATO assistance, leaving them very vulnerable to a future Russian attack.

The Donbass is actually very simple to solve: Russians leave, and the existing "LDPR" can become a Luhansk-Donetsk Autonomous Republic. But Russia is not giving up the raw materials there, even if the "LDPR" is an absolute mess. It's frightening how a significant amount of war damage simply wasn't repaired in Donetsk, and how both of the "republics" there became economic basketcases.

There are some suspicious posters in here, and they're much easier to "identify" in here because Russia's actions are so egregious and indefensible that any form of support for them (however mild) is pretty darn suspicious.

Unfortunately, I think it's sometimes the simple case that people have no idea what it's actually like in Russia. The idea that somehow Russia is sticking it to the USA is a romantic one, but nothing could be further from the truth.

 

[TheEdge]

Heard an interesting idea floated by Y.Varafoukis in a recent interview with Owen Jones on YouTube. Which was basically a peace deal involving Russia withdrawing completely from Ukraine in return for Ukrainian neutrality. And a sort of NI style arrangement brokered in the Donbass as apparently it's multi-ethnic and complicated.

So something similar to the Budapest Memorandum when Ukraine agreed to return nuclear weapons it had (rather unwillingly) acquired after the fall of the USSR? Quick referral to part 2 of that agreement...

2. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defence or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations.

Call me a pessimist but I don't see Ukraine agreeing to similar terms any time soon.

 

[ainsworth74]

There are plenty of places people can go to express their rage about Putin - or vice versa, so perhaps we should stick to Rail and Transport topics.

If anyone no longer wishes to see the General Discussion section and would rather focus on Rail and Transportation topics then please do contact us (either via PM or using the Contact Us button at the bottom of every page) to discuss the possibility of having the General Discussion section hidden from their user account. The Forum Staff would like to think that everyone enjoys their usage of the Forum and whilst we have no intention of removing the General Discussion section from the Forum entirely if it is causing problems for any member we can certainly discuss hiding it from them.

 

[Gloster]

I don’t want to sound as if I am being rude to the mods or trivialising things, but if you don’t like the way a thread is developing, stop looking at it. It doesn’t strike me as a particular difficult thing to do. Or maybe I am just an old fort.

 

[johnnychips]

I don’t want to sound as if I am being rude to the mods or trivialising things, but if you don’t like the way a thread is developing, stop looking at it.

Who is ‘you’? A poster or a mod? If a poster doesn't like things on a thread, then of course they can choose not to view it. If it’s a mod, that is their job.

 

[Annetts key]

The Russian economy has weathered the sanctions with aplomb, it is awash with assets - it is the "western" economies - particularly those of western Europe who are tanking with talk of energy and even food rationing.

As for your second sentence, such acts would lead to open warfare between Nato and Russia - a war which Nato - particularly the European element is woefully unprepared for, not least by emptying their arsenals to send to Ukraine only for it all to be destroyed, captured or sold on the black market. A report by no less than the Royal United Services Institute has admitted that the "West" no longer has the industrial capacity to produce armaments on a scale that the Russians appear to have. The only option would be to go nuclear right from the start!

The Russian currency and economy is being propped up as the Kremlin use every tool they can think of, but despite this, rather more areas than they want to admit are suffering. Hence Russia’s economic outlook is bleak.

No shortage of goods or products of any kind in a large supermarket in England that I was in on Friday. Definitely no likelihood of any food rationing.

And no problems with the supply of petrol (gasoline), diesel, fuel oil, (natural) gas or electricity.

Currently the mainland U.K. electricity network is being supplied with 60.1% (12.97GW) of fossil fuels (gas combined cycle), 23.1% of renewables (wind 21.9%, 4.73GW, hydroelectric 1.2%, 0.25GW), 30.2% other energy (mostly nuclear at 23.5%, 5.07GW and biomass at 4.7%, 1.01GW)
We are exporting 13.5%.
Note that because of rounding, the above figures may not perfectly total up.

Yes, the cost of fossil fuels has increased. And as a result electricity and transportation costs have also gone up. But then what do you expect when one of the major suppliers (Russia) starts an unnecessary and reckless war?

Oh, talking of a reckless war, the Russian military would not stand a chance against NATO forces. NATO countries have their own weapon stockpiles. Western countries have supplied Ukraine with weapons, but only a fool would think that these countries would leave themselves in a situation where they could not defend themselves.

As to Western countries capacity to produce armaments, I’m very sure that the U.K., France, Germany and the U.S.A. alone could quickly increase production to quickly replace the stockpiles of weapons that would be used in making mincemeat out of any Russian attack. Some armaments have a shelf life, so get replaced more often than lay people think.

 

[Gloster]

Who is ‘you’? A poster or a mod? If a poster doesn't like things on a thread, then of course they can choose not to view it. If it’s a mod, that is their job.

I was using the word ‘you’ in the impersonal ‘anyone’ sense., but more specifically to any poster. I was not making any judgement about the mods, more wondering why something that seems to me to be patently obvious has to be stated.

 

[johnnychips]

I was using the word ‘you’ in the impersonal ‘anyone’ sense., but more specifically to any poster. I was not making any judgement about the mods, more wondering why something that seems to me to be patently obvious has to be stated.

Thanks, I thought that was what you meant, but I wasn’t totally sure. I think the mods on here do a remarkable job considering all the views people have.

 

[Gloster]

Thanks, I thought that was what you meant, but I wasn’t totally sure. I think the mods on here do a remarkable job considering all the views people have.

Indeed. I will second that.

 

[dgl]

I can see that as Russia get more desperate for funds then the countries that will still buy their stuff will demand greater and greater discounts, though in some ways for Russia the propaganda of at least still being able to sell stuff might mitigate slightly them getting naff all for their exports.

As for Ukraine becoming neutral, that's what Russia will want. A heavily chastised country will be easier to invade the second time around.

 

[Annetts key]

Ukraine was neutral before, it’s not done them any good whatsoever, so why would they agree to being neutral again?

It is of course entirely up to Ukraine what it decides. My thoughts are that they will continue fighting and try to push the Russians back to the internationally recognised Russian border.

If Russia is running short of actual precision guided missiles (as opposed to what bull they say, the increasing use of older non-precision guided missiles indicates that they are running out), the increasing use of other older equipment like obsolete main battle tanks and the increasing use of ‘reserve’ troops may mean that if their losses continue to be heavy, at some point, they will have to start retreating.

Once this happens, why would Ukraine agree to formally give up any of its territory?

 

[daodao]

Russian troops surround Lysychansk​

Russian troops have surrounded the eastern Ukrainian city of Lysychansk, Ukraine's last major stronghold in the Luhansk region.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-62022073

It looks as if Russia has finally "liberated" / "occupied" (depending on one's perspective) nearly the whole of the Lugansk oblast, or at least is about to do so.

 

[najaB]

It looks as if Russia has finally "liberated" / "occupied" (depending on one's perspective) nearly the whole of the Lugansk oblast, or at least is about to do so.

This has been claimed by Russia for a day or two, has it been independently confirmed now?

 

[Cloud Strife]

This has been claimed by Russia for a day or two, has it been independently confirmed now?

Seems to be the case, judging by the current reports on the topic. I suspect that Ukraine has decided to fall back, as there's not much to be gained by fighting on there.

The key question now is the Bakhmut road, and ultimately the Sloviansk-Donetsk road. I strongly suspect that Russia will give up on any further offensives if they can control the Sloviansk-Donetsk road, as there's nothing much of interest to the west of it.