Russia invades Ukraine

[coppercapped]

It's hard to say exactly what he was doing there. He had received further training at the Red Banner Institute, which means that he was certainly earmarked for bigger things before he went to Dresden. It's very possible that he was in a senior position in Dresden, though.

According to reports in the German media some months ago he was a KGB liaison officer with the East German Stasi (secret police). So a desk jockey rather than an active field officer.

 

[Cloud Strife]

According to reports in the German media some months ago he was a KGB liaison officer with the East German Stasi (secret police). So a desk jockey rather than an active field officer.

It makes sense. Dresden would have been an ideal training ground for someone on the up, as he could operate without being too visible to the West.

 

[Strathclyder]

Everyone's entitled to an opinion and nobody wants loss of life but to concede anything to prevent it and 'keep the bullies happy' is dangerous, such people become pillars supporting the problem. Without wanting to single daodao out such views need to be challenged every time

Quite. Such a mentality primarily serves to embolden the bully because they know there'll be little if any meaningful pushback to deter such behavior, history has proven this time and again. I too don't wish to single any one person out, but such views need to be robustly challenged whenever they appear.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

If Russia were to take full control over those two eastern Ukranian regions, they would have a very large problem in ensuring the two areas were to face the cost of rebuilding the infrastructure that they had been shelling.

 

[Cloud Strife]

If Russia were to take full control over those two eastern Ukranian regions, they would have a very large problem in ensuring the two areas were to face the cost of rebuilding the infrastructure that they had been shelling.

I was wondering a few days ago about how life was in Donetsk before the start of the war. It turns out that they suffered a pretty huge drop in living standards, and that the city is essentially decaying through lack of investment. Damage from the ongoing conflict doesn't get repaired, there's a long lasting night curfew, and many industries simply stopped operating.

Luhansk is apparently the same, and it seems unlikely that life will get better, even if there's a ceasefire today. I'd expect them to simply leave Mariupol to rot, similar to what the Turkish Army did with Varosha. There's a good article here about life in Luhansk - https://english.nv.ua/nation/donbas...-the-story-of-life-under-russia-50239435.html - it's very, very bleak.

At the same time, almost everything has been closed at other businesses. The machine-tool plant does not work, the same with the Luganskteplovoz locomotive building plant. There are goats grazing there, the enterprise is not operational.

In terms of what's happening, I think this is very much the final phase of the war. Russia is throwing absolutely everything at Severnodonetsk and the area to the west, and I think the rational money is on them reaching Sloviansk and securing the Izyum-Donetsk road with such firepower. I don't see them going any further, especially if they've only been able to muster an estimated 30 to 40,000 troops.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

If Russia were to take full control over those two eastern Ukranian regions, they would have a very large problem in ensuring the two areas were to face the cost of rebuilding the infrastructure that they had been shelling.

I'm not sure the the Russian Government, or the Donetsk/Luhansk puppet Government is bothered about rebuilding - I suspect they just care about having the land.

 

[najaB]

I'm not sure the the Russian Government, or the Donetsk/Luhansk puppet Government is bothered about rebuilding - I suspect they just care about having the land.

They better keep in mind that even with the ongoing conflict over the last eight years or so there are still more civilians in Donetsk and Luhansk than there are soldiers.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

In terms of what's happening, I think this is very much the final phase of the war. Russia is throwing absolutely everything at Severnodonetsk and the area to the west, and I think the rational money is on them reaching Sloviansk and securing the Izyum-Donetsk road with such firepower. I don't see them going any further, especially if they've only been able to muster an estimated 30 to 40,000 troops.

I hope you're right about the Russians not being able to proceed beyond that.

However I doubt that would be the end of the story, as Ukraine is never going to willingly accept losing even that land. My guess is that, if the Russians take the rest of Donestsk/Luhansk and stop there, then Ukraine will simply wait until it's acquired enough (superior) Western weapons and then counter-attack. Although having said that, it's possible that they'll choose to prioritise taking back Kherson first. Based on their record of good tactics so far, I'd expect them to go for whichever is militarily most achievable first.

 

[farleigh]

To be fair, they are rather good at buying up expensive London properties

 

[daodao]

A court in Donetsk has sentenced to death three foreign men, who served in the Ukrainian forces and fought for Kiev in the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR). British citizens Aiden Aslin and Shaun Pinner, as well as Moroccan Saadun Ibrahim, were found guilty on Thursday of "acting as mercenaries and attempting to seize power by force in the DPR".

For more details, see the live BBC news feed at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61726733

 

[ainsworth74]

Well it's nice of them to give advanced notice of their war crimes I suppose.

 

[Trackman]

Well it's nice of them to give advanced notice of their war crimes I suppose.

I thought that and you can bet the decision didn't come from the DPR (Donetsk People's Republic).

 

[najaB]

Does anyone think this is anything other than trying to set up these British citizens as bargaining chips - "Stop sending weapons and we'll commute the sentences"?

 

[Gloster]

Does anyone think this is anything other than trying to set up these British citizens as bargaining chips - "Stop sending weapons and we'll commute the sentences"?

Alternative One: they murder them to make it clear that they are ruthless and to warn off others. Alternative Two: they mess about with offers and negotiations, etc., for a while, and then they murder them. The timings chosen to embarrass and humiliate Britain, especially Johnson and Truss.

 

[Cowley]

Does anyone think this is anything other than trying to set up these British citizens as bargaining chips - "Stop sending weapons and we'll commute the sentences"?

They’ll absolutely be used for that and the amount that the story will now be in the news will probably make others think twice about going over and fighting as well.

 

[Gag Halfrunt]

Alternative three: they'll swap them for Russian soldiers convicted of war crimes by the Ukrainian courts.

 

[Gloster]

Alternative three: they'll swap them for Russian soldiers convicted of war crimes by the Ukrainian courts.

Do they care about the fate of their own soldiers or would they rather leave them in Ukraine and call them martyrs? So far, the Russian top leadership doesn’t seem to have been much worried about its own cannon-fodder, sorry, heroes.

 

[brad465]

Putin claiming the West will continue to use its energy for years, and a US official admitting sanctions may actually have helped Russia increase oil and gas profits due to price rises outweighing the export volume reductions:

Putin: West unlikely to reject Russian energy for years

Russian president says oil and gas profits are increasing thanks to rising energy prices.

www.bbc.co.uk

Russian President Vladimir Putin says the West will not be able to cut itself off from Russian oil and gas for several years.
He added that nobody knows what might happen in that time, so Russian companies would not be "concreting over their oil-wells".
It comes as a US official admitted that Russian profits on energy may be higher now than they were before the war.
The EU currently imports around 40% of its gas from Russia.
The bloc has pledged to reduce its dependency on Russian oil by 90% by the end of 2022, but so far has not made any commitments on gas.
The US has placed an embargo on all Russian energy products. The restrictions on Russian energy are designed to punish Moscow for invading Ukraine.
But rising global oil and gas prices mean that Russian profits could have risen in recent months, despite a reduction in the overall supply.
"The volume of oil is decreasing on the world market, prices are rising," President Putin told a group of young entrepreneurs.
"Company profits are rising," he added.
That idea was echoed on Thursday by US energy security envoy Amos Hochstein.
Asked at a Senate hearing if Russia could be earning more now from fossil fuels than it was before the war, Mr Hochman replied "I can't deny that".

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

What is the internationally-accepted statute ruling that governs how prisoners of war are expected to be treated and how long has it been in force?

 

[Gloster]

What is the internationally-accepted statute ruling that governs how prisoners of war are expected to be treated and how long has it been in force?

Presumably the Geneva Convention, actually four treaties and three protocols, originally dating from 1929, but renewed in 1949 and added to or adjusted at times. Russian has signed most of it, but not completely ratified it and also withdrew from a bit in 2019. But I have no doubt that they have found loopholes that will allow them to justify whatever they want to do, even if nobody believes in them (including themselves). Do they care? (The first part is from Mr W.Pedia’s renowned reference work.)

 

[DustyBin]

Presumably the Geneva Convention, actually four treaties and three protocols, originally dating from 1929, but renewed in 1949 and added to or adjusted at times. Russian has signed most of it, but not completely ratified it and also withdrew from a bit in 2019. But I have no doubt that they have found loopholes that will allow them to justify whatever they want to do, even if nobody believes in them (including themselves). Do they care? (The first part is from Mr W.Pedia’s renowned reference work.)

It’s worth noting that the so-called Donetsk People's Republic isn’t internationally recognised, so by default neither is the court that passed these sentences. The whole thing is completely illegitimate. In reality of course we all know who is behind this but Russia will claim otherwise I’m sure.

 

[gg1]

They’ll absolutely be used for that and the amount that the story will now be in the news will probably make others think twice about going over and fighting as well.

In this instance they didn't go over to fight, they had both lived in Ukraine for a number of years before the invasion.

 

[Cloud Strife]

One interesting takeaway from yesterday was Stefan Korshak's latest update:

June 9 — Day 106 — Statistics, When the big “M” ain’t, What Ukraine wants

Hi FB!

medium.com

The Russian Federation, the successor to the Soviet Union, the world’s greatest nuclear power, right now can’t field more than, my guess 3,000–5,000 men actually willing to fight an enemy of Russia on the ground.

Stefan is meticulously fair when it comes to this war, and he hasn't hesitated to mention when he thinks that the Ukrainian side has been lying about something. For him to come out and put a number like this is important, because simply put: he doesn't really get it wrong.

If this number is true, then it explains why Russia has failed to take Sievierodonetsk so far. They simply don't have the numbers to control the territory, and one can only imagine just how heavy the Russian losses must be there. I still think it will fall within a few days, but most credible commentators suggest that there's really not much more that the Russians can do in terms of forward movement. Importantly, some Ukrainian sources say that Russia is losing soldiers at a rate of around 10 to 1, which is just astonishing if true.

On a related note, the behaviour of Germany has been nothing short of disgusting. The amount of excuses that the Germans are coming up with to avoid supplying Ukraine is beyond belief.

 

[takno]

On a related note, the behaviour of Germany has been nothing short of disgusting. The amount of excuses that the Germans are coming up with to avoid supplying Ukraine is beyond belief.

I don't think that's really fair. The behaviour of Germany is disappointing, but not entirely surprising given that post-WW2 limitations and ongoing form of war-guilt from the same has led to some deeply-held pacifist views in the ruling party. Schultz, having been central in bringing more Russian gas into Germany is going through his own cycles of guilt and defensiveness, but again that's not entirely surprising. In comparison, the Hungarians have of course been far more problematic, and the French seem to vacillate between doing nothing and trying to give away the Donbas on Ukraine's behalf, so in comparison Germany's behaviour is nothing.

What really winds me up is the Polish government's ongoing crusade to criticise absolutely everything the German government does or doesn't do, although again it's unsurprising since it's a continuation of what they've been doing for five years now.

 

[TheEdge]

They’ll absolutely be used for that and the amount that the story will now be in the news will probably make others think twice about going over and fighting as well.

Or, much like how they threatened the Azov would be treated as criminals you just end up with people fighting till they are killed taking as many Russian's with them as they can knowing they won't be treated properly as PoWs.

But I have no doubt that they have found loopholes that will allow them to justify whatever they want to do, even if nobody believes in them (including themselves). Do they care?

Well these three have been arbitrarily declared as mercenaries, despite the Brits at least being resident in Ukraine and in their armed forces since long before the war special military operation.

 

[REVUpminster]

On a related note, the behaviour of Germany has been nothing short of disgusting. The amount of excuses that the Germans are coming up with to avoid supplying Ukraine is beyond belief.

The Germans are only interested in the cheap gas they were getting so they can undercut other EU members (including us when a member) and keep their industry going. Putin worked a blinder.

 

[najaB]

The Germans are only interested in the cheap gas they were getting so they can undercut other EU members (including us when a member) and keep their industry going. Putin worked a blinder.

Because, naturally, the UK would never and has never done anything of even slightly questionable morality to get an advantage over other European states.

*cough*Empire*cough*

 

[AlterEgo]

Because, naturally, the UK would never and has never done anything of even slightly questionable morality to get an advantage over other European states.

*cough*Empire*cough*

Heh, the entire strategy of England/GB/UK for several centuries has been to act as a counterweight to balance of power in Europe. Including of course financing several wars, as well as the imperial race you mentioned.

 

[brad465]

I don't think that's really fair. The behaviour of Germany is disappointing, but not entirely surprising given that post-WW2 limitations and ongoing form of war-guilt from the same has led to some deeply-held pacifist views in the ruling party. Schultz, having been central in bringing more Russian gas into Germany is going through his own cycles of guilt and defensiveness, but again that's not entirely surprising. In comparison, the Hungarians have of course been far more problematic, and the French seem to vacillate between doing nothing and trying to give away the Donbas on Ukraine's behalf, so in comparison Germany's behaviour is nothing.

I was very opposed to Le Pen because of her clear ties to Russia. While I still think things would be worse with her on this particular issue, I wasn't expecting Macron to be as pro-Russian as he effectively is being.

 

[daodao]

If this number is true, then it explains why Russia has failed to take Sievierodonetsk so far. They simply don't have the numbers to control the territory, and one can only imagine just how heavy the Russian losses must be there. I still think it will fall within a few days, but most credible commentators suggest that there's really not much more that the Russians can do in terms of forward movement. Importantly, some Ukrainian sources say that Russia is losing soldiers at a rate of around 10 to 1, which is just astonishing if true.

Rather optimistic from a Ukrainian perspective. I have recently been reading about the fighting in the southern USSR that took place in 1942-3 and have noticed that the map of the current frontlines in the Donbass seems rather similar to the Stalingrad salient held by the Nazis in October 1942. Ukrainian forces in Severodonetsk and Lysychansk are at risk of being trapped in a Kessel if the Russians can link their forces in Lyman and Popasna. If anything, the noose is already tighter now.

A realistic overview of the current situation on the ground is available at:

Ukraine is Losing Badly and Things Are About to Get Much Worse for Them, Unless …

A Bit Of Context For Those Who Decide To Read This The information in the article you are about to read, if you choose to read on, will most likely clash

www.pressenza.com

Ukraine is Losing Badly and Things Are About to Get Much Worse for Them, ...​

Even Vladimir Zelensky's aide has admitted that the Ukraine is losing up to 200 soldiers per day killed in action.

Ukrainian casualties: Kyiv losing up to 200 troops a day - Zelensky aide

Mykhaylo Podolyak told the BBC that Ukraine needs more weapons to match Russia's firepower.

www.bbc.co.uk

Ukrainian casualties: Kyiv losing up to 200 troops a day - Zelensky aide​