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Russia invades Ukraine

John Luxton

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And presumably these so-called buffer states would have had no say in the situation.

It's wishful thinking to imagine that further indulging Russia would have lead them to become Westernised.
It would have built confidence. Building confidence is very important. It is quite clear Russia wants to sell things to the west just as we want to buy things. Also Russians want to spend their money here, send their kids to school and university here, buy property here.

All we needed was a long period of time to build up better relationships and for Russia not to see the west as a bogeyman.

Trust doesn't come overnight.
 
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yorksrob

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It would have built confidence. Building confidence is very important. It is quite clear Russia wants to sell things to the west just as we want to buy things. Also Russians want to spend their money here, send their kids to school and university here, buy property here.

All we needed was a long period of time to build up better relationships and for Russia not to see the west as a bogeyman.

Trust doesn't come overnight.

I don't really see why the countries of Eastern Europe should have been forced to wait until sometime/never in the future when Russia may or may not decide to westernise. Indulging it's great power fantasies hasn't exactly succeeded in westernising the country thus far and never will.

The policy of "change through trade" has been shown to be a complete failure. Trading without change removes the incentive to change.
 

John Luxton

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Looking at a problem from both sides isn't the same as sharing outright fabricated "facts". Of course a Trump group would be sharing that, they think Vlad is a wonderful example of a strong nationalist leader and would love to see Donald wield that power in the US.
Well put it this way perhaps a strong leader is what we need here in the UK.

As a traditional Tory I see the conservatives degenerating into blue labour.

As a consequence I find myself drifting to the right mainly in reaction to this.

I suppose I have become more susceptible to the siren calls from the right? A few years ago I couldn't stand Farage.

But during Covid as him and Richard Tice started challenging the lockdown and restriction narrative the more sympathetic I have become.

I don't think politically I have changed but the world has moved to the left and as a consequence I have moved to the right.
 

oldman

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Russia has always preferred a "strong man" leader be it a Czar or other authoritarian leader.
Such a cliche. The Russian people have rarely had a choice - no one elected the tsars or the Soviet leaders. In fact the only 'strong man' they could be said to have chosen was Putin himself after Yeltsin quit and he made sure they wouldn't get to choose again.
All we needed was a long period of time to build up better relationships and for Russia not to see the west as a bogeyman.

Just because Putin feeds the Russian people anti-Western rhetoric, mixed with nonsense about Ukrainian nazis, it does not mean that is his actual motivation. He knows fine well that the West has no interest in invading Russia, but it's a convenient line and he knows there are people in the West who will happily blame the West for everything.
 

DynamicSpirit

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I actually found the graphic on a pro Trump supporters page. Don't work for anyone I retired two years ago but I do believe in looking at problems from both sides and not just going along with the vox populi.

Looking at problems from both sides is an admirable objective - and it is true that usually things do look a bit different from the other side. But it does require some discernment to realise when one side is basically peddling lies to justify their appalling actions.


I can tell you that people in Poland and in neighbouring countries (with the exception of brainwashed rural Hungary and Eastern Slovakia) are very, very much in favour of NATO and the EU. It was - correctly - perceived as the only way to counter Russian aggression, and people here openly knew that it was a matter of when, not if, Russia attacks.

Appeasing Russia has never worked historically, so why would it work now? The only real long term option is to dismember Russia and divide it into three or four new states, centred around Moscow, St Petersburg, Siberia and perhaps a slew of new unstable states in the south that can be perpetually at war with each other.

Putin isn't the cause of all this, it's the Russian mentality to blame.

However, the West is also making a hugely dangerous move by not paying too much attention to Hungary. If Orban wins in a week, then Orban may very well end up pulling Hungary out of NATO and the EU and into the hands of Russia.

I agree with you to the extent of being very concerned about what Russia and Putin are doing. And I hadn't realised there were elections in Hungary coming up. Yes, that's something we should pay attention to.

But I think you're in dangerous ground talking about 'Russian mentality'. We've seen lots of brave Russians opposing the war and being arrested for doing so. The very fact that Putin's regime cracks down so severely on dissidence shows that they fear those Russian citizens who do believe in democracy. Ukraine, Moldova, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia and Georgia all spent about 70 years living as part of the same country as Russia and being ruled by the same Soviet Government, so would be likely to have to a large extent inherited the same political mentality as Russia - yet they all transitioned to democracy. Belarus didn't, and it's clear that was entirely due to the path chosen by the guy who won the first elections there. Russia did have a democratic period for about 10 years after the collapse of the USSR, but that went badly wrong leading to an economic collapse that - as I understand it - wasn't shared to the same extent by the other ex-USSR countries and appears to have resulted largely from the well-meaning incompetence of Boris Yeltsin. It wasn't inevitable that Putin would become Russia's president, and I don't see any significant reason to doubt that the way Russia and Belarus took a different path from other European ex-USSR states was mainly because of the choices of those individuals who found themselves in charge during the 1990s and early 2000's. But more to the point, I think it's mistaken (and borderline racist) to effectively write off an entire population because of the failings of their leadership. I don't want to see Russia broken up - I want to see it restored to democracy so it can rightfully take it's place amongst civilised and free countries.
 
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AlterEgo

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I don't think politically I have changed but the world has moved to the left and as a consequence I have moved to the right.
The world - or at least not this country, which is what you really mean - really has not moved to the left at all, we just had Brexit and people voted for protectionism and championing the nation-state. Right now, we are supplying arms to a smaller country in the face of a much bigger and angrier aggressor.

Right wingers who think everything is going left are merely telling on their own point of view. It's like being on a train parked next to another train. If you move, it looks like the other train is moving at first.
 

Roast Veg

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We also fail to accept that we seem to have this thinking that we should impose western values on other nations and cultures around the world.
By Western values, do you mean democracy, rule of law, political and religious freedoms, and the right of sovereign nations to join any defence alliance they so choose?
 

AlterEgo

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By Western values, do you mean democracy, rule of law, political and religious freedoms, and the right of sovereign nations to join any defence alliance they so choose?
Universal liberalism is a futile endeavour, because it relies on social engineering in countries diametrically opposed to Western values.

It's important we think Western values matter, because we should should cherish and defend them. They suit us just fine, and have made us successful. But trying to impart - often by force - a liberal universalism on countries beset by fundamentalism is pointless, as the last 20 years ought to have instructed us.

We should not try to impose "Western values" on Russia, nor any other country which has not deemed it to be the best value system. It's little better than evangelism.
 

yorksrob

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Universal liberalism is a futile endeavour, because it relies on social engineering in countries diametrically opposed to Western values.

It's important we think Western values matter, because we should should cherish and defend them. They suit us just fine, and have made us successful. But trying to impart - often by force - a liberal universalism on countries beset by fundamentalism is pointless, as the last 20 years ought to have instructed us.

We should not try to impose "Western values" on Russia, nor any other country which has not deemed it to be the best value system. It's little better than evangelism.

This conflict is Russia trying to enforce fundamentalism on Western countries, not the other way around.

We shouldn't be forced to trade or engage with countries that are fundamentally opposed to western values.
 

AlterEgo

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We shouldn't be forced to trade or engage with countries that are fundamentally opposed to western values.
Forced by whom? We do it freely, as we do with myriad countries because it suits our strategic interests. Hence our support of Saudi Arabia and its militarism in keeping terrorism at bay in the Arabian peninsula, and our debt payment to Iran so a nuclear deal will go more smoothly in future.

I admire those who have such a black and white view of the world, it must be very easy to rationalise anything.
 

yorksrob

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Forced by whom? We do it freely, as we do with myriad countries because it suits our strategic interests. Hence our support of Saudi Arabia and its militarism in keeping terrorism at bay in the Arabian peninsula, and our debt payment to Iran so a nuclear deal will go more smoothly in future.

I admire those who have such a black and white view of the world, it must be very easy to rationalise anything.

We do indeed. However, as I've said previously, I don't see how it's in our strategic interest to be economically embroiled with an unstable country that is so at odds with western values, it thinks nothing of starting land wars with friendly countries in Europe. It is in our strategic interest to have as little to do with the country as possible.
 

DynamicSpirit

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Universal liberalism is a futile endeavour, because it relies on social engineering in countries diametrically opposed to Western values.

I disagree. Universal liberalism I would say is almost inevitable if you provide rule of law and just allow people to be, because it perfectly matches human nature in terms of our instinctive desires to run our own lives. Universal liberalism is, at one level, precisely the idea of letting people be free to do as they wish, provided they don't harm others.

The problem is that in too many places autocrats have taken control and sought to suppress people's freedoms. It's very noticeable that whenever autocrats deny people liberalism, you always see people struggling against those autocrats and demanding so-called 'Western' freedoms as soon as they are allowed to learn about them. On the other hand, almost no-one in Western liberal democracies fights to be like - say - Russia or China or North Korea (a few political extremists praise those countries, but it's pretty obvious they have no real idea what it is they are defending or what life in those countries is really like).

The social engineering that is the problem is the social engineering that is done by autocrats to try to deny people their freedoms.

What possibly *is* a futile endeavour is the way in the past we've confused liberalism with Western/secular cultural values, and sought to export those. That generally doesn't work.
 

daodao

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I think like most people I wish what has happened hadn't but I am trying to understand why it happened.
This You Tube video from 2015 of a lecture by Professor John Mearsheimer gives a very interesting and often prescient perspective on the Ukrainian crisis:


In his concluding summary (43-46 minutes) before answering questions, he warns that that the path pursued by the West would result in wrecking Ukraine.
 
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AlterEgo

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I disagree. Universal liberalism I would say is almost inevitable if you provide rule of law and just allow people to be, because it perfectly matches human nature in terms of our instinctive desires to run our own lives. Universal liberalism is, at one level, precisely the idea of letting people be free to do as they wish, provided they don't harm others.
No way.

Liberalism is a privilege people have had to fight for, earn and continuously enforce in the west. People died for it. Repeatedly. It took England nearly 900 years to get from the mildest concession to an autocrat in Magna Carta to universal suffrage among adults.

And it does not last forever unless you actively assert it.

The problem is that in too many places autocrats have taken control and sought to suppress people's freedoms. It's very noticeable that whenever autocrats deny people liberalism, you always see people struggling against those autocrats and demanding so-called 'Western' freedoms as soon as they are allowed to learn about them.
People protesting autocrats do not always want Western freedoms. Many countries are well apprised of the benefits and drawbacks of liberalism and are content to say "no thank you" and instead practice religions which are fundamentally illiberal, or hold secular but illiberal views. Hundreds of billions of dollars went into trying to found a democracy in Afghanistan for it all to collapse instantly the moment we left.

It is wrong to think that liberalism is the natural order of man.
 

DynamicSpirit

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Liberalism is a privilege people have had to fight for, earn and continuously enforce in the west. People died for it. Repeatedly. It took England nearly 900 years to get from the mildest concession to an autocrat in Magna Carta to universal suffrage among adults.

That was at a time before the concept of liberalism had been invented or anyone had heard of it. You may note I was careful to qualify my assertion with "you always see people struggling against those autocrats and demanding so-called 'Western' freedoms as soon as they are allowed to learn about them"
 

John Luxton

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This You Tube video from 2015 of a lecture by Professor John Mearsheimer gives a very interesting and often prescient perspective on the Ukrainian crisis:


In his concluding summary (43-46 minutes) before answering questions, he warns that that the path pursued by the West would result in wrecking Ukraine.
Thank you for that - listened to the whole.

I couldn't disagree with the Professor's ideas. It is also interesting to realise that this was 7 years ago.

Excellent I suggest others watch this.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

Just because Putin feeds the Russian people anti-Western rhetoric, mixed with nonsense about Ukrainian nazis, it does not mean that is his actual motivation. He knows fine well that the West has no interest in invading Russia, but it's a convenient line and he knows there are people in the West who will happily blame the West for everything.
I think you need to look up the Azov Battalion with regard to the Nazi allegations. Plenty of info on the web. Not everything the west does is wrong but neither is it always right. The best people as always are critical friends.
 
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Annetts key

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It would have built confidence. Building confidence is very important. It is quite clear Russia wants to sell things to the west just as we want to buy things. Also Russians want to spend their money here, send their kids to school and university here, buy property here.

All we needed was a long period of time to build up better relationships and for Russia not to see the west as a bogeyman.

Trust doesn't come overnight.
Trust and confidence of the people are irrelevant while you have a power mad psychopath person like Putin in charge. He has made sure by using every tool he has to lie about nearly everything relating to foreign relations. As a result, only a fool would give you any answer as to what the Russian people think or what they would choose if they had not been subjected to all the years of lies.
I think you need to look up the Azov Battalion with regard to the Nazi allegations. Plenty of info on the web. Not everything the west does is wrong but neither is it always right. The best people as always are critical friends.
There is also plenty of so called information on the web that is incorrect or misleading. Any fool can make allegations.

Just how big do you think this volunteer unit is? In reality, it’s a very small compared to the rest of Ukraine’s forces.

Have some members of the Azov conducted themselves poorly? Have some broken the law and/or normal military conventions? It certainly sounds like it. But that’s the trouble with volunteer units like this.

Is it the same now, as it was in 2014/2015?

And it has to be said, if Russia had not invaded Ukraine in 2014, there would not have been the right circumstances for volunteer units like this to form in the first place.

So it’s a bit rich for someone on the political right to try to justify Putin’s actions based on the existence of a volunteer unit that may have some members who politically hold individual far right views and may have had members who fell below the standards that are expected in modern times. Especially given Putin’s very poor record on human rights.

I suspect there are far larger numbers of far right volunteers with individual far right views elsewhere in the world.

Hence this is a distraction.
 
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GusB

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Have you watched the video, if only from 43-46 minutes? It explains who Professor Mearsheimer believes is ultimately responsible.
It's Russia that's firing missiles and using artillery against Ukrainian cities. It is responsible for wrecking Ukraine.
 

Giugiaro

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Hundreds of billions of dollars went into trying to found a democracy in Afghanistan for it all to collapse instantly the moment we left.

One of the problems with Afghanistan, among an uncountable number of other problems, is that nation building was a side job the US decided to do after it invaded the country.

And as we all know, it was so damn well done it collapsed even while the US was in the middle of its withdrawal.

And at the end of the day, Bin Laden was in Pakistan, a major non-NATO ally of the US, that America had to lie to in order to carry the assassination assault.

And all those hundreds of billions of dollars were spent without proper planning nor oversight. For the average North American and Afghan middle man it was a free-for-all corruption galore. It's always like this when it rains money.
 

takno

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Have you watched the video, if only from 43-46 minutes? It explains who Professor Mearsheimer believes is ultimately responsible.
I have watched the video. It features a self-proclaimed dinosaur 7 years ago talking exclusively about American interests in a way that makes it clear that he has no interest in the people of Europe at all, except as pawns to be pushed around a board. It features a hugely disingenuous map to "evidence" that the people of Ukraine are divided in a way which they are.

In practice he doesn't understand Ukraine, doesn't understand Europe, doesn't understand people generally. While he doesn't make the same mistakes other people had been making about Russia, he badly overestimates their importance and the value of appeasing then.
 

Roast Veg

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This You Tube video from 2015 of a lecture by Professor John Mearsheimer gives a very interesting and often prescient perspective on the Ukrainian crisis:

In his concluding summary (43-46 minutes) before answering questions, he warns that that the path pursued by the West would result in wrecking Ukraine.

Thank you for that - listened to the whole.

I couldn't disagree with the Professor's ideas. It is also interesting to realise that this was 7 years ago.

Excellent I suggest others watch this.
By way of scripted counterpoint, I suggest the TLDR news video on the matter:
 

oldman

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I think you need to look up the Azov Battalion with regard to the Nazi allegations. Plenty of info on the web. Not everything the west does is wrong but neither is it always right. The best people as always are critical friends.
I could bore everyone with an account of 20th century Ukrainian nationalism, including Stalin's murderous repression of Ukrainian cultural identity from the late 1920s, the famines of the 1930s, and Stalin's alliance with Hitler to rule over all nationalities living in the space between Germany and Russia, and the resulting mass murders and deportations in territory annexed by Stalin from Poland in 1939.

The upshot was that some Ukrainian nationalists decided that Stalin was a greater threat to their national identity than Hitler, and some contemporary Ukrainian nationalists have chosen to celebrate that choice, unfortunately allowing 'critical friends (who needs enemies) a chance to indulge in whataboutery.

Moscow propaganda created the myth that Ukrainian nationalism = Nazism in order to rally support from their population for their war, along with the other big lie of a fear of the West. Putin's ambition is to restore Russian hegemony over all points east of Germany. It seems that Mearsheimer quoted above believes such great-power hegemony to be natural and inevitable, which is tough on us Europeans, who will just have to put up with it.
 

GS250

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And presumably these so-called buffer states would have had no say in the situation.

It's wishful thinking to imagine that further indulging Russia would have lead them to become Westernised.

Do they actually want to become 'Westernised'?

I think its clear we enjoy a lot of privileges in the West. However....whether our culture and lifestyles will stand the test of time is open to scrutiny.
 

AlterEgo

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It seems that Mearsheimer quoted above believes such great-power hegemony to be natural and inevitable, which is tough on us Europeans, who will just have to put up with it.
This is the central tenet of his argument, yes. Europe has always been that way. We entered WWI as a way of balancing power and ensuring France was not usurped by Germany. The whole premise of the EU is to decrease conflict by increasing trade and cultural exchange and to ensure European powers are balanced and held in tension. Britain joined the EEC partly in the hope it would become more federalist and less a project of Germany and France.
 

Annetts key

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It seems that Mearsheimer quoted above believes such great-power hegemony to be natural and inevitable, which is tough on us Europeans, who will just have to put up with it.
It’s funny how some Americans forget that the U.S.A. only became powerful (compared to the British Empire) some time after 1916 (that’s a maximum of about 105 years ago, a pretty short timespan really). Until then, the U.S.A. would have been considered to be far, far less important than Europe. And now in terms of economic growth and output China is rapidly on the rise (well, was until relatively recently).
 

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