Russia invades Ukraine

[yorksrob]

I agree: but wondered why we would be burning piles of CDs from a Romanian singing duo anyway?

I'd best cancel my slot on popmaster by the sounds of it then !

 

[Shaw S Hunter]

I'd best cancel my slot on popmaster by the sounds of it then !

Just edit your post from Cheeky Girls to Tatu!

 

[yorksrob]

Just edit your post from Cheeky Girls to Tatu!

Well, I don't see any great boycott of them either (not that I've seen anything of them for the last ten years !).

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

West still importing gas, oil, coal and oil products and yes the EU say they will be reducing dependency on Russia but Germany need four years to get there own LNG terminal built so West will be propping up Russian ability to fight this war for years yet.

 

[yorksrob]

West still importing gas, oil, coal and oil products and yes the EU say they will be reducing dependency on Russia but Germany need four years to get there own LNG terminal built so West will be propping up Russian ability to fight this war for years yet.

That is a sad reality of becoming dependant on an authoritarian regime with nukes. But at least the lesson has hopefully been learnt for the future.

We can learn from our forefathers of the 1950's and 60's.

 

[brad465]

West still importing gas, oil, coal and oil products and yes the EU say they will be reducing dependency on Russia but Germany need four years to get there own LNG terminal built so West will be propping up Russian ability to fight this war for years yet.

Globalisation sought the best profit. Shame it didn't think about morals first.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Globalisation sought the best profit. Shame it didn't think about morals first.

Indeed but there was also an abdication of responsibility by the UK and many other governments to the consequences on security of supply. Here in the UK we are well short of refining capacity (in large part we priced refiners out by levying carbon taxes so forcing the cost up but making us look good from CO2 emissions) particularly diesel and have to import huge amounts of which Russia supplies 1 in 5 litres and far more to other European countries. Diesel is the life blood of a modern economy so for all the moral high ground on display at NATO, G7 & EO conferences yesterday it doesn't extend to really squeezing Russia and Putin knows that. He's also out smarted the clever people by now insisting that all Russian exports have to be paid for in Roubles which has caused some recovery for its currency.

 

[dakta]

On a related but separate note, Putin isn't the only one who knows how to do a decent fail

1. Posted at 21:2121:21
   

   Apology after email addresses revealed​

   The Foreign Office has apologised after mistakenly sharing the email addresses of dozens of people who were living in Ukraine and seeking refuge in the UK.
   It failed to hide recipients' emails when it sent out a mass email asking those seeking help whether they had managed to leave Ukraine.
   The email was sent to 42 recipients on 20 March.
   BBC Radio 4's PM programme was alerted to the breach by Sam who left Kyiv with his partner having first sought Foreign Office advice.
   He said it was a "huge security risk" that could see them targeted by Russia.
   "I would say we have had a weak form of generic apology, with ... no action, no real formal apology, no real public apology. Nothing that is putting my mind at rest," he said.
   The Foreign Office suggestion to "maybe try looking out for any spam emails" was "weak and woefully inadequate", he said.
   Last year the Ministry of Defence twice mistakenly shared the email addresses of Afghans who wanted to relocate to the UK as the Taliban were taking over the country.

source: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60856533

 

[Yew]

One thing that NATO and countries in the west can give the Ukrainians is specific intelligence about movement of high profile Russians both outside their home state and inside. I doubt there's anything in UN, NATO rules or international law preventing that.

Indeed, check FlightRadar24, and you will often find all sorts of Nato Reconnaissance aircraft just-shy of the Ukrainian border.

EDIT: Looks like I was beaten to it, those E-3's are often accompanied by a Rivet Joint or two, which we used to replace the Nimrod.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 26 Mar 2022 ==

Indeed but there was also an abdication of responsibility by the UK and many other governments to the consequences on security of supply. Here in the UK we are well short of refining capacity (in large part we priced refiners out by levying carbon taxes so forcing the cost up but making us look good from CO2 emissions) particularly diesel and have to import huge amounts of which Russia supplies 1 in 5 litres and far more to other European countries. Diesel is the life blood of a modern economy so for all the moral high ground on display at NATO, G7 & EO conferences yesterday it doesn't extend to really squeezing Russia and Putin knows that. He's also out smarted the clever people by now insisting that all Russian exports have to be paid for in Roubles which has caused some recovery for its currency.

Indeed, we've sacrificed our domestic production capacity of many commodities, often for small savings. And have been unwilling to account for the wider economic advantages of domestic production.

 

[DustyBin]

Indeed, check FlightRadar24, and you will often find all sorts of Nato Reconnaissance aircraft just-shy of the Ukrainian border.

I posted a few pages ago that I’d recently taken an interest in this (I’m not a serious aviation enthusiast) and there’s a constant presence as you say. Bearing in mind we only see what they want us to see, there’s a serious amount of hardware over Eastern Europe. The US also appears to be monitoring things from its own own side as well (over the North Pacific for example) presumably more in regard to Russian mobilisation within its own borders. The amount of intelligence being gathered must be huge and it certainly looks to be benefitting Ukraine.

ETA: Occasionally a Global Hawk switches on it’s transponder so that we can all see what it’s up to, I’m not sure why though? Is it a case of “look what we’ve got” as I can’t think of any other reason?

 

[Roast Veg]

Globalisation sought the best profit. Shame it didn't think about morals first.

A moral global economy must be sought, as opposed to an insular economic "solution".

 

[XAM2175]

For instance right now there's an E-3 (airborne early warning and control, basically you can run the operational part of an air war from one) running figure 8s over South East Poland:

EDIT: Looks like I was beaten to it, those E-3's are often accompanied by a Rivet Joint or two, which we used to replace the Nimrod.

Bearing in mind we only see what they want us to see, there’s a serious amount of hardware over Eastern Europe.

Yes, both the USAF and the RAF have been putting a lot of hours on their RC-135Ws too. You can also sometimes see US Army RC-12 Guardrails going back and forward along the Lithuania-Belarus border.

 

[AM9]

Occasionally a Global Hawk switches on it’s transponder so that we can all see what it’s up to, I’m not sure why though? Is it a case of “look what we’ve got” as I can’t think of any other reason?

Probably to test any response, - essential planning to determine the limits of penetration in the theatre and developing a strategy for recovery. The Russians exploits with Bears and other aircraft over the North Sea are probably doing the same. The fact that the aircraft was originally a bomber might create a response appropriate to such a threat.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 26 Mar 2022 ==

Indeed, check FlightRadar24, and you will often find all sorts of Nato Reconnaissance aircraft just-shy of the Ukrainian border.

EDIT: Looks like I was beaten to it, those E-3's are often accompanied by a Rivet Joint or two, which we used to replace the Nimrod.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 26 Mar 2022 ==


Indeed, we've sacrificed our domestic production capacity of many commodities, often for small savings. And have been unwilling to account for the wider economic advantages of domestic production.

I guess surveillance extends beyond airborne detection, - satellites are probably providing an almost live picture of launch sites - bio and chemical weapon sites are probably already mapped as potential targets anyway.

 

[Annetts key]

Also, you don’t have tanker aircraft flying circuits in the area unless there are other aircraft that need mid-air refuelling…

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Can't help thinking that Biden's reported remarks today of "For God's sake this man cannot remain in power" are simultaneously completely true and also a really stupid thing for a President to say out loud.

It's becoming more and more obvious that, Putin is basically a gangster sees nothing wrong with taking whatever he wants and is able to take by force, no matter where in the World and no matter how many casualties it causes. As long at he remains in power, basically no-one is safe. For the sake of the World, we need to start thinking seriously about what we can do to facilitate his removal from power. But at the same time, all that is gained by saying it in the absence of any other action is to provoke Russia.

 

[Cowley]

Can't help thinking that Biden's reported remarks today of "For God's sake this man cannot remain in power" are simultaneously completely true and also a really stupid thing for a President to say out loud.

It's becoming more and more obvious that, Putin is basically a gangster sees nothing wrong with taking whatever he wants and is able to take by force, no matter where in the World and no matter how many casualties it causes. As long at he remains in power, basically no-one is safe. For the sake of the World, we need to start thinking seriously about what we can do to facilitate his removal from power. But at the same time, all that is gained by saying it in the absence of any other action is to provoke Russia.

I totally agree and the White House has since come out and said Biden is not calling for regime change.
Erm. I think you just did…

 

[AlterEgo]

Can't help thinking that Biden's reported remarks today of "For God's sake this man cannot remain in power" are simultaneously completely true and also a really stupid thing for a President to say out loud.

It's becoming more and more obvious that, Putin is basically a gangster sees nothing wrong with taking whatever he wants and is able to take by force, no matter where in the World and no matter how many casualties it causes. As long at he remains in power, basically no-one is safe. For the sake of the World, we need to start thinking seriously about what we can do to facilitate his removal from power. But at the same time, all that is gained by saying it in the absence of any other action is to provoke Russia.

What shall we do? Interfere in elections? Sponsor uprisings or terrorism? Assassination?

Putin is not the only problem with Russia. You will just get another macho strongman you won’t like.

 

[Annetts key]

What shall we do? Interfere in elections? Sponsor uprisings or terrorism? Assassination?

Putin is not the only problem with Russia. You will just get another macho strongman you won’t like.

Regardless of your morals on trying to affect the joke that are Russian elections, or on assassination, the reality is that these are not practical options. He’s not stupid, he will have multiple levels of personal protection in addition to the services of the Russian state.

Uprisings are difficult given the control Putin has over the media. Terrorism won’t work. He obviously does not care about what happens to ordinary people, no matter where they are in the world. He only cares about himself and maybe his own family.

So the only practical answer is to reduce or hinder the ability of Putin’s military (yes, the Russian military) to wage war.

That means taking the opportunity to destroy the hardware while it is attacking Ukraine. As it’s even more dodgy to take the fight to the Russian forces on their own territory.

The only other way is severe sanctions. But these take time to have an effect, and in the meantime, they don’t stop current conflict. They also have the downside of hurting the ordinary people.

Unfortunately because we (as in our governments) are scared of the nuclear threat, the west is not taking any direct action against Russian forces in Ukraine.

We, the west, have also been far too weak in our decisions in the past. The warning signs have been apparent, we, the west just chose to ignore them.

So for the time being, we are letting Putin try to control his war, and he is still in total control of Russia, and likely will be for some time yet.

 

[TheEdge]

So for the time being, we are letting Putin try to control his war, and he is still in total control of Russia, and likely will be for some time yet.

I think at the moment it's rather a matter of giving him enough rope to hang himself. The Kremlin are looking like they are scrambling to find a propaganda victory with the sudden change of "Phase one is over and we just want to secure Donbas, we never wanted Kyiv anyway, its dumb".

And the more coffins that turn up in Russia, and the more dead generals, with one reportedly killed by his own men, the harder it becomes to maintain power. You can't lie to your army then throw it into the meat grinder indefinitely without risk...

 

[Loppylugs]

I read with total amazement that Liz Truss says sanctions can be lifted for Russia after total withdrawal from Ukraine and a promise not to be aggressive again. She has to be joking. Who on earth in their proper mind would trust Putin and his buddies over anything? Hard as it is on the normal Russian resident, the sanctions must stay and then it is up to the population to sort it out for themselves. It may take a bloody civil war to get this regime out, but it seems the only way to pull Russia back from isolation.

 

[Annetts key]

I think at the moment it's rather a matter of giving him enough rope to hang himself. The Kremlin are looking like they are scrambling to find a propaganda victory with the sudden change of "Phase one is over and we just want to secure Donbas, we never wanted Kyiv anyway, its dumb".

And the more coffins that turn up in Russia, and the more dead generals, with one reportedly killed by his own men, the harder it becomes to maintain power. You can't lie to your army then throw it into the meat grinder indefinitely without risk...

I don’t disagree, however, although the Ukrainian forces are doing a lot better than many expected, they know that they have weaknesses. If Russia continues it’s grinding campaign, how long can the Ukrainian forces continue to hold their ground?

The last thing we need is for Russia to break through and take any more ground, or for them to flatten even more of Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure.

I would much prefer it if the west’s military directly helped Ukraine. Even if it’s only providing air defence and patrolling of the largely uncontested areas of Ukraine (e.g. west of a line approximately between Kyiv and Odesa). Failing that, we need to supply them with suitable weapons so that they can protect their own air space (the longer range, higher altitude surface to air missile systems), and suitable long range weapons to attack the Russian artillery and rocket launchers. If necessary, this should include personnel to train them in the operation of this equipment.

 

[Shrop]

I read with total amazement that Liz Truss says sanctions can be lifted for Russia after total withdrawal from Ukraine and a promise not to be aggressive again. She has to be joking. Who on earth in their proper mind would trust Putin and his buddies over anything? Hard as it is on the normal Russian resident, the sanctions must stay and then it is up to the population to sort it out for themselves. It may take a bloody civil war to get this regime out, but it seems the only way to pull Russia back from isolation.

From what I can see, it does appear to be an incredibly weak announcement. Surely sanctions should only be lifted if Putin is removed from power, along with numerous other much stronger conditions, such as Russia agreeing that its a declaration of war on Nato if they break the conditions ...
.

 

[yorksrob]

I read with total amazement that Liz Truss says sanctions can be lifted for Russia after total withdrawal from Ukraine and a promise not to be aggressive again. She has to be joking. Who on earth in their proper mind would trust Putin and his buddies over anything? Hard as it is on the normal Russian resident, the sanctions must stay and then it is up to the population to sort it out for themselves. It may take a bloody civil war to get this regime out, but it seems the only way to pull Russia back from isolation.

Indeed. Hopefully just a ploy to try and get them to withdraw. Allowing the FSB state back into the western fold would be total lunacy.

 

[tommy2215]

I read with total amazement that Liz Truss says sanctions can be lifted for Russia after total withdrawal from Ukraine and a promise not to be aggressive again. She has to be joking. Who on earth in their proper mind would trust Putin and his buddies over anything? Hard as it is on the normal Russian resident, the sanctions must stay and then it is up to the population to sort it out for themselves. It may take a bloody civil war to get this regime out, but it seems the only way to pull Russia back from isolation.

It's probably because the sanctions are hurting Western economies (though not as bad as the Russian economy.)

 

[Cloud Strife]

I don’t disagree, however, although the Ukrainian forces are doing a lot better than many expected, they know that they have weaknesses. If Russia continues it’s grinding campaign, how long can the Ukrainian forces continue to hold their ground?

It could easily go on for years. We saw this in Bosnia, where the Serbs didn't even need air superiority to inflict prolonged suffering.

The question for me is how much Russia has left to use. There are persistent messages coming that Russia has used up much of their precision missile stocks, and if (it's a big if, IMO) Ukraine manages to retake Kherson, the whole operation might fall to pieces. The Russian strategy now appears to be solely about threatening to do to other cities as they've done to Mariupol, but they don't have the advantage (i.e. one side of the city surrounded by water) in other cities that they had there.

But, and this is the pessimistic part. The USA appears to be happy to test various weapons out in Ukraine, but NATO as a whole is clearly establishing a new doctrine that 'you're either in our club, or we don't really care'. Biden has made it clear in Poland that the USA will defend Poland and other NATO members, but his visit has done nothing for Ukraine. As much as it pains me to write this, I think there's a clear agreement on the part of NATO that they will wreck Russia if they do a single thing against NATO, but Ukraine has to fight this war with what each other country feels that it is politically acceptable to give.

Unfortunately, I fear that we have Bosnia all over again.

 

[JamesT]

I read with total amazement that Liz Truss says sanctions can be lifted for Russia after total withdrawal from Ukraine and a promise not to be aggressive again. She has to be joking. Who on earth in their proper mind would trust Putin and his buddies over anything? Hard as it is on the normal Russian resident, the sanctions must stay and then it is up to the population to sort it out for themselves. It may take a bloody civil war to get this regime out, but it seems the only way to pull Russia back from isolation.

This may be a matter of interpretation, but I’m reading it in the opposite way. She’s saying the sanctions won’t come off until the Russians withdraw, it’s a minimum requirement. ( https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/03/26/liz-truss-right-now-differences-eu-seem-lot-smaller/ is the interview )

I think there needs to be some reduction in sanctions on a withdrawal, possibly looking at those which affect ordinary Russians rather than the oligarchs. Otherwise it incentivises them to carry on, why bother withdrawing if there won’t be any benefits?

 

[Roast Veg]

This may be a matter of interpretation, but I’m reading it in the opposite way. She’s saying the sanctions won’t come off until the Russians withdraw, it’s a minimum requirement. ( https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/03/26/liz-truss-right-now-differences-eu-seem-lot-smaller/ is the interview )

I think there needs to be some reduction in sanctions on a withdrawal, possibly looking at those which affect ordinary Russians rather than the oligarchs. Otherwise it incentivises them to carry on, why bother withdrawing if there won’t be any benefits?

Indeed - this is the carrot, where the stick is already known.

 

[John Luxton]

I read with total amazement that Liz Truss says sanctions can be lifted for Russia after total withdrawal from Ukraine and a promise not to be aggressive again. She has to be joking. Who on earth in their proper mind would trust Putin and his buddies over anything? Hard as it is on the normal Russian resident, the sanctions must stay and then it is up to the population to sort it out for themselves. It may take a bloody civil war to get this regime out, but it seems the only way to pull Russia back from isolation.

Not such a bad idea. If the war is to be stopped Putin has to be given the ability to save face. Sanctions are a blunt instrument hurting the guilty as well as the innocent not just in Russia but here in the UK. Yes fuel bills were going to go up anyway but really is it worth punishing our own citizens more than is necessary? Sometimes principal can come at an enormous cost.

 

[yorksrob]

Not such a bad idea. If the war is to be stopped Putin has to be given the ability to save face. Sanctions are a blunt instrument hurting the guilty as well as the innocent not just in Russia but here in the UK. Yes fuel bills were going to go up anyway but really is it worth punishing our own citizens more than is necessary? Sometimes principal can come at an enormous cost.

Or instead use the opportunity to rebuild Western economies without such a reliance on an unstable enemy power.

 

[takno]

Not such a bad idea. If the war is to be stopped Putin has to be given the ability to save face. Sanctions are a blunt instrument hurting the guilty as well as the innocent not just in Russia but here in the UK. Yes fuel bills were going to go up anyway but really is it worth punishing our own citizens more than is necessary? Sometimes principal can come at an enormous cost.

It seems fairly clear that our long term energy and and geopolitical security is absolutely dependant on removing Russia from any significant role in fossil fuel supply. The dangerous and unstable elite running Russia obtained and keep their position primarily through the money they make from fossil fuels, and we cannot safely leave them in power. On a purely practical level, they also appear to be too corrupt to achieve the opening of new fields required to maintain the supply anyway.

Those energy sanctions are the ones hurting the west, and from our point of view there isn't a huge amount to be gained from removing the other sanctions.