Russia invades Ukraine

[DynamicSpirit]

Telegraph are reporting that the Ukrainians have destroyed a Russian navy landing ship. (link)

A Russian navy landing ship has reportedly been destroyed by Ukrainian forces after its location appeared in a Kremlin propaganda video.

Ukraine's navy said it had achieved a direct hit on the Orsk, a Russian Alligator-class tank carrier, while it was anchored in the captured port of Berdyansk in the south of the country.

The reported success came three days after Russian state media filmed the 370ft vessel having armoured vehicles unloaded from it, which were set to reinforce troops in nearby Mariupol.

The fact that it was unloading armoured vehicles for Mariupol would seem to suggest the Russians are still having trouble taking that city, despite having practically razed it.

I'm intrigued at the implication that Ukraine still has a navy able to inflict that kind of damage - I was under the impression the Russians had pretty much total control over the Sea of Azov.

 

[Scotrail314209]

It's good to see the Ukrainians making progress on slowly taking things back, but should the situation worsen for the Russian forces, I'm worried about what Putin may order next.

 

[Cdd89]

should the situation worsen for the Russian forces, I'm worried about what Putin may order next.

In a way, I’m therefore (sort of) glad that a few countries are retaining relations with Russia.

He may have burnt his bridges with the West and have nothing to lose, but if he goes too far he’ll burn the rest of his bridges too.

 

[Scotrail314209]

In a way, I’m therefore (sort of) glad that a few countries are retaining relations with Russia.

He may have burnt his bridges with the West and have nothing to lose, but if he goes too far he’ll burn the rest of his bridges too.

Yes, I'm quite glad he still has his relations with China. If he burns those then he's done.

 

[Typhoon]

Gotcha but, at least to me, it read very differently!

To me too.

It is essential that Ukraine is scrupulous in sticking to the rules if for no other reason that any lapses will lead to Russia claiming that Ukraine is playing dirty, which could give China and others the excuse to offer support to Russia. Since, I gather, a significant number of Russians appear to be conscripts, some may have no appetite for the conflict. If they knew they are going to be shot, they will fight to the end, if they know they will be well cared for, they might surrender if the odds were against them. Ukraine should get some organisation to see that they are OK - Red Cross (or Red Crescent if that is thought less 'Western'), allow them to write home (any geography redacted) for the Aid organisation to send back. I think there is a fair chance Putin won't allow them through. That may not go down too well with the families of those whose current situation is unknown, specially if it is made known that letters home had not been delivered.

It's good to see the Ukrainians making progress on slowly taking things back, but should the situation worsen for the Russian forces, I'm worried about what Putin may order next.

I do too. Provided the West sticks together, in the long term Putin will lose. Bar China, I don't think he will listen to anyone, and even with China it is only up to a point.

 

[Cloud Strife]

It's good to see the Ukrainians making progress on slowly taking things back, but should the situation worsen for the Russian forces, I'm worried about what Putin may order next.

I'm also afraid of this. Putin is fighting for his own political survival right now, as it's becoming very very clear that Russia can't win this war conventionally. There are claims that Mariupol has just fallen, but at what cost to the Russian side?

My gut feeling is that we're going to see Ukraine razed city by city if Mariupol has indeed fallen. It will be proof that 'surround, bombard and destroy" works, and it might well encourage the Russians to throw everything at surrounding Kharkiv so that it can meet the same fate.

 

[Gloster]

According to Full Fact (Latest Fact Checks, 16 March), which was largely responding to pictures and videos, etc., of POWs in the British media, such images are not actually contrary to the Geneva Convention. However, they do fall into a grey area that makes their use undesirable and they are best not published.

 

[DustyBin]

I'm also afraid of this. Putin is fighting for his own political survival right now, as it's becoming very very clear that Russia can't win this war conventionally. There are claims that Mariupol has just fallen, but at what cost to the Russian side?

My gut feeling is that we're going to see Ukraine razed city by city if Mariupol has indeed fallen. It will be proof that 'surround, bombard and destroy" works, and it might well encourage the Russians to throw everything at surrounding Kharkiv so that it can meet the same fate.

It's worth bearing in mind that Mariupol appears to have been particularly vulnerable to attack simply because of it's location. It's close to the already occupied "breakaway" regions, Crimea and obviously the sea where Russia can (or could) operate seemingly with impunity. I also suspect it's a key strategic objective for the Russians for the same reason. What we're seeing to the north and west of Kyiv gives me some hope at least that the Russians will struggle to employ the same tactics elsewhere.

In regard to the nuclear sabre rattling it's certainly alarming but it started on the first day of the invasion. As I see it it's a sign of weakness from an increasingly isolated regime that has badly miscalculated, and is quite possibly stuffed now regardless of what happens on the ground in Ukraine. I also think it's very possible that Putin is genuinely terrified of NATO, or even a member or two acting unilaterally, deciding to join the conflict which would almost certainly prove decisive at this point.

 

[AlterEgo]

As AlterEgo says, it's very possible that they've switched from trying to take them prisoner to simply killing them instead. In terms of 'more likely to get through to ordinary Russians', a POW on Twitter is not likely to do much, but if more and more Russians soldiers simply go missing - then rumours will destroy Russia from inside and cause even more opposition to mobilisation.

This is, I believe, one of the reasons Ukraine has been targeting Russian senior officers and generals.

Good for Ukrainian morale, and those sorts of deaths - of well-connected middle class officers - tend to be much harder to cover up on the home front.

 

[Roast Veg]

It's worth bearing in mind that Mariupol appears to have been particularly vulnerable to attack simply because of it's location. It's close to the already occupied "breakaway" regions, Crimea and obviously the sea where Russia can (or could) operate seemingly with impunity. I also suspect it's a key strategic objective for the Russians for the same reason.

Russia has been looking for as many warm water ports as it can possibly get ahold of for decades. The minor inconvenience is that Turkey won't let Russian vessels through now...

 

[Cloud Strife]

It's worth bearing in mind that Mariupol appears to have been particularly vulnerable to attack simply because of it's location. It's close to the already occupied "breakaway" regions, Crimea and obviously the sea where Russia can (or could) operate seemingly with impunity. I also suspect it's a key strategic objective for the Russians for the same reason. What we're seeing to the north and west of Kyiv gives me some hope at least that the Russians will struggle to employ the same tactics elsewhere.

In regard to the nuclear sabre rattling it's certainly alarming but it started on the first day of the invasion. As I see it it's a sign of weakness from an increasingly isolated regime that has badly miscalculated, and is quite possibly stuffed now regardless of what happens on the ground in Ukraine. I also think it's very possible that Putin is genuinely terrified of NATO, or even a member or two acting unilaterally, deciding to join the conflict which would almost certainly prove decisive at this point.

Yes, fully controlling the Sea of Azov and creating a land corridor from Russia to Crimea was always a strategic aim of theirs. However, I really do wonder how Russia thinks that they will continue to control that corridor. One suggestion is that they're going to simply deport everyone from the corridor one way or another, but this just leaves them even more exposed to a counterattack. There's also the monumental problem for Russia in that their military is very static and that they're very vulnerable to mobile hit and run tactics. They can defend at the borders of Crimea (it's only a very small land border), but good luck defending the Sea of Azov corridor in the same way against an enemy that speaks like you and can operate freely.

As for Putin being terrified of NATO, it's nothing new. This fear existed from 1945 onwards, and much of the Soviet military thinking was based around the threat of NATO invading. Certainly he has reason to be worried, as committing Belarusian forces into Ukraine would leave Belarus dangerously unprotected against a Polish attack. If Poland went in to Western Belarus to protect the Poles living there, it's conceivable that NATO could put the Białystok-Vilnius road under their control and thus (considerably) lengthening the distance between Belarus and Kaliningrad.

Would Poland do it? Not very likely, but certainly NATO wouldn't object to Grodno and Brest being in their hands.

 

[AndrewE]

My fear is that Putin just wants Ukraine and its farmlands and resources, and doesn't give a toss what anyone else thinks as long as he can stay in power - and point to the territorial gain to get the approval of the Russian population (now that the myth of his troops being welcomed as liberators has been exploded.)

With no outside direct engagement to help defend Ukraine he still sees it as a war he can "win," and with no real comeback either. Russia and China control(led) such a large proportion of world resources and economic acitivity that they can probably just carry on as they want without any need for outside trade.

Hence the widespread depopulation of Ukraine, razing of cities and absolutely no mercy for the people still there: If they don't want to become Russians then Putin is happy to lose them in any way which he can get away with. I think he sees a totally empty country as a fiefdom he can repopulate with a relatively small number of people drafted in from Russia, with all the riches of the farms and mines available to him to exploit or plunder with no resistance.

 

[Annetts key]

In regard to the nuclear sabre rattling it's certainly alarming but it started on the first day of the invasion. As I see it it's a sign of weakness from an increasingly isolated regime that has badly miscalculated, and is quite possibly stuffed now regardless of what happens on the ground in Ukraine. I also think it's very possible that Putin is genuinely terrified of NATO, or even a member or two acting unilaterally, deciding to join the conflict which would almost certainly prove decisive at this point.

You can tell that Putin is lying, his lips are moving. Given that most of what he says is laden with lies and half-truths, or misleading information, it’s not worth taking anything he says literally.

I agree that mentions of Russia’s nuclear weapons is a sign of weakness. Everyone and their dog knows that Russia has nuclear weapons. But I don’t think he would ever actually use any of them. Because he does not want to die. So when he says these things, he’s trying to sound powerful, but it’s all a bluff.

And yes, he is screwed no matter what. It’s clear now that the Russian military is not as good as the West feared. Just like the Iraqi military that invaded Kuwait turned out not to be very good when faced with a real battle.

A lot of the Russian hardware looks to be former USSR equipment or reproductions and appears not to have been updated or maintained properly.

There does not appear to be proper supply lines.

They have burned through a large amount of cruse missiles, which are not cheap, and are hard to replace quickly.

Hence I don’t now think that Russia has any practical chance of significantly increasing the amount of territory that it controls in Ukraine. So will not win this war.

As the losses increase, the Russian military are going to get increasingly less happy. So what happens when a significant number of generals start ignoring Putin’s orders?

Putin obviously is afraid of NATO, but I think it’s not as simple as that. What he is really afraid of is democratic governments and a free media.

He’s a control freak. There is only one way, his way. So if he loses control of the ‘story’ in Russia, he knows he’s finished.

It is however unlikely that he will be toppled anytime soon. It could take months…

 

[DanNCL]

I saw a post on Twitter earlier (sorry I haven’t managed to find the post again so can’t link it) from one of the official Kremlin accounts, with a quote from Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova. The tweet had the usual “de-nazification” nonsense in it, but interestingly included a map of the region with borders supposedly how Russia sees them; Russia seems to have forgotten that they don’t recognise Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts as part of Ukraine!

Either this is a sign of Russia ready to make some huge concessions, or (sadly more likely) someone in the Russian Foreign Ministry may be about to have an illness arranged for them by the Kremlin…

 

[DustyBin]

I saw a post on Twitter earlier (sorry I haven’t managed to find the post again so can’t link it) from one of the official Kremlin accounts, with a quote from Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova. The tweet had the usual “de-nazification” nonsense in it, but interestingly included a map of the region with borders supposedly how Russia sees them; Russia seems to have forgotten that they don’t recognise Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts as part of Ukraine!

Either this is a sign of Russia ready to make some huge concessions, or (sadly more likely) someone in the Russian Foreign Ministry may be about to have an illness arranged for them by the Kremlin…

I saw that as well, someone needs to avoid balconies for a while I think!

 

[43096]

One suggestion is that they're going to simply deport everyone from the corridor one way or another

Does that mean ethnic cleansing can be added to the list of Putin’s war crimes?

 

[Giugiaro]

Does that mean ethnic cleansing can be added to the list of Putin’s war crimes?

It's a tactic as old as the country itself.
Wonder why there are so many issues with Russian minorities in ex-Soviet countries?

If you wish not to become a Russian, you will be replaced by a Russian.
If you don't honour your Russian minority, the Motherland will come to make YOU the minority.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Does that mean ethnic cleansing can be added to the list of Putin’s war crimes?

It's even worse. Mariupol had around 50% Ukrainians, 45% Russians, 4% Greeks and a handful of others. Who knows what the Russians are doing, but I wouldn't be shocked if they 'evacuate' Russians in the same way as they did in Donetsk and Luhansk.

 

[kevin_roche]

On my return from a trip to Spain this week, I saw a sign at Heathrow asking people who are arriving from Ukraine if they have any war crimes to report.

 

[AM9]

On my return from a trip to Spain this week, I saw a sign at Heathrow asking people who are arriving from Ukraine if they have any war crimes to report.

Was that their own misdeeds or reporting those of others?

 

[Cloud Strife]

Another day, and another report that Ukraine has killed Lieutenant General Yakov Rezantsev. If this is true, then it looks like the Ukrainians have an unbelievable amount of intelligence on the Russian military leadership, just as was previously speculated. You have to wonder what on earth is going on that Russia keeps putting them so close to the front lines.

One thing that keeps being mentioned is Ukraine's role as a supply of food to Africa. Is it possible that African countries will start to come out against Russia if they can't get basic food supplies this year?

 

[AM9]

Another day, and another report that Ukraine has killed Lieutenant General Yakov Rezantsev. If this is true, then it looks like the Ukrainians have an unbelievable amount of intelligence on the Russian military leadership, just as was previously speculated. You have to wonder what on earth is going on that Russia keeps putting them so close to the front lines.

One thing that keeps being mentioned is Ukraine's role as a supply of food to Africa. Is it possible that African countries will start to come out against Russia if they can't get basic food supplies this year?

One thing that NATO and countries in the west can give the Ukrainians is specific intelligence about movement of high profile Russians both outside their home state and inside. I doubt there's anything in UN, NATO rules or international law preventing that.

 

[dakta]

Be interesting if true:

A Russian Commander Was Killed By His Own Troops, Western Officials Have Revealed

Vladimir Putin's soldiers have "found themselves in a hornets' nest and are suffering really badly".

uk.yahoo.com

Russian troops killed one of their own commanders due to the losses being suffered during the invasion of Ukraine, Western officials have said.

It is also believed Vladimir Putin has decided to “pause” his attempt to take Kyiv in order to concentrate his forces on the Donbas region in the east of the country.

Russian troops have unexpectedly “found themselves in a hornets’ nest and are suffering really badly”, a Western official said, leading to widespread morale problems.

As the advance falters, Russian soldiers are said to have killed one of their own senior officers.

“We believe he was killed by his own troops deliberately. Indeed we believe he was run over by his own troops,” an official said.

 

[ainsworth74]

Another day, and another report that Ukraine has killed Lieutenant General Yakov Rezantsev. If this is true, then it looks like the Ukrainians have an unbelievable amount of intelligence on the Russian military leadership, just as was previously speculated. You have to wonder what on earth is going on that Russia keeps putting them so close to the front lines.

I think there's a few things at play here.

For one Ukraine certainly will be getting excellent intel via NATO. Before the war there was a near constant presence of NATO surveillance aircraft and drones over Ukraine and since their still airborne over neighbouring countries. For instance right now there's an E-3 (airborne early warning and control, basically you can run the operational part of an air war from one) running figure 8s over South East Poland:



(Image shows screenshot from Flightradar24 of an E-3 circling over Poland near the Ukraine and Belarus borders)

So that's one factor. The Ukrainians probably have NATO quality electronic surveillance and early warning. Probably the only issue is delays in getting that info to them. I doubt there are Ukrainian Air Force guys sat in that E-3 for instance!

But the other main factor is likely that Russian communications are terrible. There's been plenty of reports of units, quite large ones in some cases, being unable to reach their HQ for instructions. There's reports of communication being via personal cell phone and civilian radios. I can well believe that for some of these senior the officers the only way they have of trying to fix stalled advances is to go to the front and try and fix it directly. Which, of course, leaves them very exposed.

The results of both of the above are an increasing number of dead senior Russian officers.

 

[brad465]

Putin has decided to get JK Rowling and Cancel Culture involved in his views for this invasion and how key Russians have been treated, which has led to JK Rowling rebuking his involvement:

Ukraine war: JK Rowling hits back at Putin's 'cancel culture' comment

Mr Putin referenced the Harry Potter author during a speech condemning "cancel culture" in the West.

www.bbc.co.uk

JK Rowling has hit back at Vladimir Putin, after the Russian president cited her in a wide-ranging speech that saw him criticise "cancel culture".
At a televised meeting on Friday, Mr Putin compared recent criticism of the Harry Potter author to that faced by pro-war Russian composers and writers.
In response, Ms Rowling denounced the invasion of Ukraine in which she said Russia was "slaughtering civilians".
Rowling has been criticised for her views on transgender issues.
"Critiques of Western cancel culture are possibly not best made by those currently slaughtering civilians for the crime of resistance, or who jail and poison their critics," the Harry Potter author wrote on Twitter.
In the lengthy speech, which was given to the winners of various cultural prizes, President Putin claimed Russian composers and writers were being discriminated against.
"They are trying to cancel a thousand-year-old country," he said.
Some events featuring pro-war Russians have been cancelled since Moscow invaded Ukraine last month.
A much smaller number of events have been cancelled due to their use of music by dead Russian composers.
But Mr Putin also alleged - without providing evidence - that there was a "gradual discrimination against everything linked to Russia... in a number of Western countries".
"They are banning Russian writers and books," he said."The proverbial 'cancel culture' has become a cancellation of culture."
Mr Putin then defended Ms Rowling, who has faced criticism for her comments on transgender issues. She denies accusations of transphobia.
"JK Rowling was cancelled because she, a writer of books that have sold millions of copies around the world, didn't please fans of so-called gender freedoms," Mr Putin claimed.
The writer has said her interest in trans issues stems from being a survivor of abuse and having concerns around single-sex spaces.
Critics have said her views have diminished the identity of trans people.

If anything this just shows how desperate Putin is to try and justify his antics.

 

[yorksrob]

Putin pondering over cancel culture has to be one of the more surreal aspects of this war. I can't say as I've noticed piles of Dr Zhivago videos and Cheeky Girls CD's burning in the street.

 

[takno]

Putin pondering over cancel culture has to be one of the more surreal aspects of this war. I can't say as I've noticed piles of Dr Zhivago videos and Cheeky Girls CD's burning in the street.

Maybe not down your way, but on my street we've been burning Cheeky Girls CDs in the street since before it was popular.

What's most worrying about this is that I'm not seeing somebody desperately clinging onto anything to justify his actions. I'm seeing an intensely self-regarding red-faced old man, who's absolutely no more desperate or off his rocker than he's ever been. He's just been frothing himself up into a real lather for 30 years because things aren't like they were when he were a lad. Unfortunately instead of restricting himself to being a standard pub bore, he's running an entire large country on his pub-bore principles.

 

[yorksrob]

Maybe not down your way, but on my street we've been burning Cheeky Girls CDs in the street since before it was popular.

What's most worrying about this is that I'm not seeing somebody desperately clinging onto anything to justify his actions. I'm seeing an intensely self-regarding red-faced old man, who's absolutely no more desperate or off his rocker than he's ever been. He's just been frothing himself up into a real lather for 30 years because things aren't like they were when he were a lad. Unfortunately instead of restricting himself to being a standard pub bore, he's running an entire large country on his pub-bore principles.

Perhaps he's always been off his rocker - we've just missed the signs !

 

[brad465]

It's now starting to be reported that Russia are claiming their first stage has been accomplished and will now focus on liberating the Donbas, with common belief among Western officials that this is a sign Russia knows its messed up so far and it's better to try and save face with concentrating on a specific area of strategic importance:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60856533

Russia says the "first stage" of what it calls its "special military operation" has been mostly accomplished and that it will now concentrate on "the liberation of the Donbas".

This is likely to mean a more concerted effort to push beyond the "line of contact" that separates Ukrainian government-held territory in the east of the country from the Russian backed separatist "people’s republics" of Donetsk and Luhansk.

Western officials believe the announcement implies that Moscow knows that its pre-war strategy has failed.

"Russia is recognising that it can't pursue its operations on multiple axes simultaneously," one official said.

As many as 10 new battalion tactical groups are being generated and put into Russia’s operations, especially in the Donbas.

Western officials have been concerned for some time that Russia will attempt to encircle and envelop Ukraine’s best fighting units, which are stationed along the line of contact.

If more Russian firepower, particularly air power, is concentrated in the east, those concerns will rise.

"I hope that's where the Western supply of arms will make a significant contribution to Ukrainian forces," one official said.

 

[seagull]

Putin pondering over cancel culture has to be one of the more surreal aspects of this war. I can't say as I've noticed piles of Dr Zhivago videos and Cheeky Girls CD's burning in the street.

I agree: but wondered why we would be burning piles of CDs from a Romanian singing duo anyway?