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Russia invades Ukraine

DynamicSpirit

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Does anyone know of any stats on what proportion of various types of our weapons we are supplying to Ukraine? I totally support sending weapons there and hope we can do more to help, but it also occurs to me to wonder to what extent we're depleting our own stocks, and how quickly we can restock? Is there any danger that we might hit a point where, at least in the short term, we no longer have any weapons to spare to send there?
 
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yorksrob

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Does anyone know of any stats on what proportion of various types of our weapons we are supplying to Ukraine? I totally support sending weapons there and hope we can do more to help, but it also occurs to me to wonder to what extent we're depleting our own stocks, and how quickly we can restock? Is there any danger that we might hit a point where, at least in the short term, we no longer have any weapons to spare to send there?

Interesting point. One can't help but wonder whether armaments were one of those things that were easy to forget about during austerity.

On another similar note, what capacity do we have to manufacture our own armaments ? One hopes that has been retained within the kingdom.
 

dgl

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Interesting point. One can't help but wonder whether armaments were one of those things that were easy to forget about during austerity.

On another similar note, what capacity do we have to manufacture our own armaments ? One hopes that has been retained within the kingdom.
Given all our dodgy arms deals I would assume that we very much still make our own weapons.
 

DustyBin

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One of the few things we actually do manufacture !

Yes we make a fair bit, and contribute significantly to a number of collaborative efforts. Hence the controversy surrounding arms deals with Saudi Arabia for example.

It will be interesting to see what happens in regard to defence spending going forwards. Although historically we’ve met our NATO commitments, I’ve been saying for years that we’ve become complacent and over-reliant on the US. Trump was quite right in this regard although as per usual he went about saying it in completely the wrong way (and his criticism was clearly aimed at Europe in general not the UK specifically).

The future of our armed forces may be worth a thread of it’s own actually as there’s plenty to discuss!
 

AM9

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Given all our dodgy arms deals I would assume that we very much still make our own weapons.
I would imagine that there are procurement channels that can prioritise rapid increases in weapon stocks despite apparent material shortages in the commercial supply chains. The systems which are being/have been supplied to Ukraine (e.g. NLAW & Starstreak*) is that they are mature and in normal production. Some of the systems are shared by several NATO forces, so all in all, the rapid supply of useful quantities of support are well within the scope of national logistics.
* information on these systems is freely available on Wikipedia, frequently based on information sourced from authoritative sources such as Jane's Defence publications.
 

dgl

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I would imagine that there are procurement channels that can prioritise rapid increases in weapon stocks despite apparent material shortages in the commercial supply chains. The systems which are being/have been supplied to Ukraine (e.g. NLAW & Starstreak*) is that they are mature and in normal production. Some of the systems are shared by several NATO forces, so all in all, the rapid supply of useful quantities of support are well within the scope of national logistics.
* information on these systems is freely available on Wikipedia, frequently based on information sourced from authoritative sources such as Jane's Defence publications.
Also a lot of military semiconductors are to military specification (to make them more reliable/hardy) and as such the manufacture of them will probably be on different lines and be protected in terms of supply, the military cannot be seen to lack supplies.
 

dakta

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Yahoo/The independent (likely paywalled) now claiming that Russia has given Mariupol a surrender ultimatium, expiring at 2am GMT

Russia’s military has urged Ukrainians to lay down their arms in Mariupol, saying they will be given safe passage out of the besieged port city if they agree to the offer.

Ukraine has until 5am Moscow time (2am UK time) to respond.

“Lay down your arms,” Colonel-General Mikhail Mizintsev said a briefing distributed by Russia’s defence ministry in Moscow. “All who lay down their arms are guaranteed safe passage out of Mariupol.”


The city has suffered some of the heaviest bombardment since Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February. Many of its 400,000 residents remain trapped in the city with little if any food, water and power.
 
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bspahh

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Also a lot of military semiconductors are to military specification (to make them more reliable/hardy) and as such the manufacture of them will probably be on different lines and be protected in terms of supply, the military cannot be seen to lack supplies.
The Wikipedia article on NLAWs says that the UK has sent Ukraine 4,000 of them, and that "the UK requirement may be for up to 20,000 units". They were introduced in 2009 and have a 20 year shelf life, so it might be a chance to refresh the UK's stocks.
 

jon0844

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Lots of talk on Twitter of major rocket attacks in Ukraine, but so far it does appear to be just one big explosion filmed from various angles. However, with the ultimatum given (and Putin talking about chemical weapons and advising ambassadors to leave as 'Ukraine' might use them) it does suggest his attacks are likely to intensify in the coming days - and then Zelenskyy will be somehow blamed or accused.
 

tommy2215

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Seems like Ukraine has refused to surrender Mariupol, which is a good idea. The reason for the Russian ultimatum was probably because the Russians were short on supplies rather than them suddenly feeling merciful. Besides, given how the Russians have been fighting, they probably would've taken no care of civilians even if Ukraine had surrendered the city.
 

REVUpminster

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Russia is using the same excuse as Germany did about German speaking people by annexing Austria and the Sudetenland. Going into Poland was the start of ww2 and Russia invaded Poland from the east as friends of the Germans. If Germany had not attacked Russia we might all be living in the Third Reich to this day.
 

ainsworth74

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The discussion around conscription and requiring people to stay behind and fight can now be found in its own thread here as it was getting quite wide ranging and somewhat beyond just the current war in Ukraine.
 

oldman

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Some weird madness from the fascist press (kp.ru):

Biotechnology specialist Alexander Kudryavtsev explained how a weapon against the Slavs can work.

"You can take a closer look at the genome - pay attention to smaller fragments of DNA. In particular, very short sections, say, a chain of 20 nucleotides," the specialist said. He believes that at this level it is possible to identify the differences between one ethnic group and another.

"Hypothetically "breakdowns" are possible, that can provoke the development of malignant tumors. Or dramatically weaken the immune system. Or lead to the launch of autoimmune diseases, when the immune system begins to attack its host."

Earlier, Dmitry Rogozin, director general of Roscosmos, said that the bioweapon being developed in Ukraine affects the reproductive system of women, as well as the immunity of "certain ethnic groups", including the "Russian population of Russia." According to him, this bioweapon "affects the reproductive function of women of a certain nationality, as well as the immune system of a specific ethnic group", while causing "allergies, intolerance to traditional food and susceptibility to diseases leading to a weakening of the nation's immunity and its extinction without starting a war."

So it seems Russians and Ukrainians are genetically quite different.

Meanwhile in the real world the Russian car industry is having problems with electronic components. After being shut down this month, some factories are returning to 2 days a week, but the summer shutdown will be in April this year.
 

dgl

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Some weird madness from the fascist press (kp.ru):



So it seems Russians and Ukrainians are genetically quite different.
I thought Putin said the Ukrainan's were genetically/ethnicly Russian and that's why the were invading, to rescue them, maybe that's not true?...
 

Annetts key

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Some weird madness from the fascist press (kp.ru)….
And you believe this nonsense?

There is a number of reasons that genetic weapons have not been developed. One is that it is considerably more difficult to target a particular country when us humans are constantly moving around and breeding with others from different parts of the world.
 

brad465

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There are reports, like the one below, that a Russian news site initially admitted to just under 10,000 soldier deaths and 16,000 injured, before the figure was quickly deleted online:


A pro-Kremlin tabloid, Komsomolskaya Pravda, on Monday reported that almost 10,000 Russian troops have been killed in the war in Ukraine — before quickly deleting the numbers from the site. Komsomolskaya Pravda later released a statement claiming it was hacked.

Before the figures were removed, the tabloid cited the Russian Ministry of Defense as the source. The report said that 9,861 Russian soldiers have died and 16,153 were injured since Russian President Vladimir Putin launched the unprovoked war in late February.

These numbers are far higher than what's been reported by the Russian government, and it's unclear if they were accurate. Previously, Russia's Ministry of Defense reported that 498 Russian troops had been killed. And a recent US intelligence estimate placed the Russian death toll in Ukraine at roughly 7,000.

For perspective, there were 2,461 US soldiers killed in America's 20-year war in Afghanistan. Putin's war in Ukraine is roughly a month old.

For just 3-4 weeks of fighting this is a very high casualty rate if an accurate estimate, and deaths + injured is equal to around 1/6 of the forces mobilised to the Ukraine border.
 

DustyBin

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There are reports, like the one below, that a Russian news site initially admitted to just under 10,000 soldier deaths and 16,000 injured, before the figure was quickly deleted online:




For just 3-4 weeks of fighting this is a very high casualty rate if an accurate estimate, and deaths + injured is equal to around 1/6 of the forces mobilised to the Ukraine border.

I’ve just read that they’re now claiming their site was hacked……

The 10,000 dead is lower than the number being claimed by Ukraine and not much higher than the US estimate so it’s certainly believable. It is indeed a high casualty rate though as you say (and add to it the 16,000 injured). When you look at the destroyed Russian columns and read about entire regiments being wiped out it’s perhaps not surprising.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

22/03:

There are numerous reliable looking (but as yet unconfirmed) reports that a significant Russian force has been cut off and encircled to the north west of Kyiv. This does appear to be the area in which Ukrainian forces have been counter attacking over the last 24 hours (Irpin I believe) so it may be true. It may even make the Belarusian's think twice about crossing the border if indeed they actually are as they'd find themselves immediately facing the same Ukrainian forces. Again this is all unconfirmed and the Russians don't appear to have actually surrendered as of yet, but it could be a significant development.
 
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Cloud Strife

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There are numerous reliable looking (but as yet unconfirmed) reports that a significant Russian force has been cut off and encircled to the north west of Kyiv. This does appear to be the area in which Ukrainian forces have been counter attacking over the last 24 hours (Irpin I believe) so it may be true. It may even make the Belarusian's think twice about crossing the border if indeed they actually are as they'd find themselves immediately facing the same Ukrainian forces. Again this is all unconfirmed and the Russians don't appear to have actually surrendered as of yet, but it could be a significant development.

Bellingcat's founder retweeted a similar claim from John Sweeney, who wouldn't stick his neck out like that unless he had a very strong feeling that it was true. If it is, then Russia is facing a monumental defeat there. It will almost certainly give Lukashenko the ammo he needs to refuse Putin, because there's a very real possibility that Lukashenko could lose his army and his security forces.

There is also something very strange happening with the Russian forces. They seem to be incredibly reluctant and unwilling to call up their reserves, and the only thing I can think of is that they don't want reservists telling their families that they're being sent to war. Meanwhile, Ukraine is busy calling up their reserves and using them for defensive purposes, so there's a very real possibilty that the Russians will be outnumbered significantly.

The concerning thing is that Russian TV has really gone hysterical. They're now talking about strategic battlefield nukes, they're talking about attacking Poland/the Baltics, and to me - this says that they know that the war is potentially lost.

While I still believe that Russia will win this war by simply destroying cities until nothing is left, part of me does wonder if Russia can keep taking these kinds of losses.
 

Annetts key

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Well, if this is the kind of tactics that the Ukrainians are using and the Russian forces are stupid enough to fall into these traps…
BBC NEWS said:
Ukraine: The small town which managed to block Russia's big plans
By Andrew Harding
BBC News, Voznesensk

It was one of the most decisive battles of the war so far - a ferocious two-day struggle for control of the farming town of Voznesensk and its strategically important bridge.
Victory would have enabled Russian forces to sweep further west along the Black Sea coast towards the huge port of Odesa and a major nuclear power plant.

Instead, Ukrainian troops, supported by an eclectic army of local volunteers, delivered a crushing blow to Russian plans, first by blowing up the bridge and then by driving the invading army back, up to 100km, to the east.

"It's hard to explain how we did it. It's thanks to the fighting spirit of our local people and to the Ukrainian army," said Voznesensk's 32-year-old mayor, Yevheni Velichko, standing in body armour with his guards outside the town hall.

But almost three weeks after that battle, the mayor warned that another attack by Russian forces was probably imminent and that the town's defenders lacked the weapons to hold them off a second time.

"This is such a strategic location. We're not only defending the town, but all the territory behind it. And we don't have the heavy weapons our enemy has," he said.

As on so many frontlines in Ukraine, British-supplied anti-tank missiles proved crucial in turning the tide against Russian armour in Voznesensk, leaving the town littered with up to 30 tanks, armoured cars and even a helicopter.

"It's only thanks to these weapons that we were able to beat our enemy here. And we say thank you to our partners for their support. But we need more. The enemy's convoys will keep coming," said Mr Velichko.

Voznesensk's strategic significance became clear soon after Russian forces failed to capture an even larger bridge, further to the south, across Ukraine's second-largest river, the Southern Buh.

Today, Voznesensk is not quite a ghost town, haunted by regular air raid sirens. But thousands have left in recent weeks, by train or on pot-holed country roads that wind through vast, rolling fields of wheat.

Many of those who have chosen to stay behind still seem eager to talk about their remarkable victory.

"It was a colossal effort by the whole town," said Alexander, a local shopkeeper who filmed himself on the frontlines with an AK47, screaming "Come on my little beauties!" as another volunteer fired a rocket-propelled grenade towards Russian positions.
"We used hunting rifles, people threw bricks and jars. Old women loaded heavy sandbags. "The Russians didn't know where to look or where the next attack would come from. I've never seen the community come together like that," he said, standing by the twisted wreckage of the bridge, which Ukrainian forces destroyed within hours of the first Russian attack.

The matted swirl of Russian tank tracks still mark Svetlana Nikolaevna's garden, in the village of Rakove, on the southern edge of Voznesensk, where some of the heaviest fighting took place.

Bloody bandages and Russian ration packs litter the hedge rows. The 59-year-old pointed to her husband's tool shed, explaining that two captured Ukrainian soldiers had been held there by the Russians and were only saved from execution by a surge in fighting.

"Look at the blood stains on my door," she said, inviting visitors inside her ramshackle cottage. While she and her family took shelter in a nearby cellar, the Russians converted her entire home into a makeshift field hospital.

"I came back to get some clothes on the second day. There were wounded people lying everywhere. Ten of them, I think. I've cleared up most of the blood," she said.

"They left in a hurry, one night. They left everything behind - boots, socks, body armour, helmets - and just loaded up their dead and their wounded and ran away."

It fell to the local funeral director, Mykhailo Sokurenko, to hunt in the fields for more Russian bodies and then load them into a train wagon.

"I don't consider them human beings [after what they did here]. But it would wrong just leave them out in the field, still frightening people even after their deaths," he said.

"These Russians are sick in the head, so we'll have to stay on guard. But victory will come, and we'll push the Russians out of all our lands."
source

This kind of defence by Ukrainian forces may help to explain why the Russian losses are so great.

And turning to the root cause of all this mayhem, Javid recognises that Putin is a compulsive liar…

BBC News said:
Posted at 9:49 21 Mar

Putin 'compulsive liar' - Javid

Russian President Vladimir Putin is a "compulsive liar", UK Health Secretary Sajid Javid says.

He told BBC Radio 4's Today programme the West must "be realistic about where things are heading at this point in time", noting Russia's military strength.

"I fear, that without finding some way to constrain Russia and Putin at this point, things are going to get a lot uglier.

"The Russians don't seem that they can be trusted, and especially President Putin, who we know is a compulsive liar. We know that he has difficulty in separating fiction from fact.

"I know from my own experiences as home secretary... when we were dealing with the attack on Salisbury with an illegal chemical weapon... that the Russians lied all the way through it."
source (bottom of page).

In my humble opinion, the above two stories say a hell of a lot about what’s going on with this war.

So please don’t worry about Putin threatening to use nuclear ICBMs on us. If he did not want to live, why would he be (and have been) taking so many precautions to protect himself against being killed by either COVID19 or someone who may decide Russia is better off without him.
 

brad465

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A senior Russian Government adviser has just quit and left the country according to Bloomberg:


Russian climate envoy Anatoly Chubais has stepped down and left the country, citing his opposition to President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine, according to two people familiar with the situation, becoming the highest-level official to break with the Kremlin over the invasion.

Chubais, 66, is one of the few 1990s-era economic reformers who’d remained in Putin’s government and had maintained close ties with Western officials. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

Known as the architect of Russia’s 1990s privatizations, Chubais gave Putin his first Kremlin job in the mid-1990s and initially welcomed his rise to power at the end of that decade. Under Putin, Chubais took top jobs at big state companies until the president named him envoy for sustainable development last year.

Since the war, the government has stepped up pressure on domestic critics of the invasion. Putin warned on March 16 that he would cleanse Russia of the “scum and traitors” he accuses of working covertly for the U.S. and its allies. Facing economic meltdown, the Russian leader accused the West of wanting to destroy Russia.

“Any people, and particularly the Russian people, will always be able to tell the patriots from the scum and traitors and spit them out like a midge that accidentally flew into their mouths,” Putin said. “I am convinced that this natural and necessary self-cleansing of society will only strengthen our country, our solidarity, cohesion and readiness to meet any challenge.”

Last week, Arkady Dvorkovich, who was senior economic adviser to Dmitry Medvedev during his presidency and a deputy prime minister until 2018, stepped down as head of the state-backed Skolkovo technology fund after condemning the invasion. Dvorkovich, who’s also president of the International Chess Federation, is one of only a few former senior officials to speak out against the war.
 

Cloud Strife

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Unbelievable.

Ukraine has liberated almost all of Irpin, and they're fighting to clear Bucha and Hostomel. If they do, then Russia is facing serious, serious problems to the NW of Kyiv. I suspect the dire situation of the Russian forces in Irpin is heavily discouraging the Belarusians from getting involved, as they have no real training or knowledge of offensive attacks. There's also the unbelievable idiocy of trying to start a war in Ukraine during the spring thaw, as it's making life incredibly tough for the Russian forces in the swamps of Polesie to the NW of Kyiv.

On the other side, it looks like the Russians are trying to do in Chernihiv what they've been doing in Mariupol, and it seems to jive with my general feeling - that in the absence of being able to win, they're just going to raze cities and towns instead.

One thing that hasn't been reported is that the Ukrainians have stopped making propaganda videos with captured POWs. I wonder if this reflects a deliberate change of policy to simply kill them instead, as it's much harder for the Russians to cover up.
 

ainsworth74

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I wonder if this reflects a deliberate change of policy to simply kill them instead, as it's much harder for the Russians to cover up.
It would be idiotic as well as war crime for Ukraine to be killing POWs and there hasn't even been a whisper of such a thing. I suspect more likely someone has pointed out that parading them was contrary to the Geneva Convention.
 

AlterEgo

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It would be idiotic as well as war crime for Ukraine to be killing POWs and there hasn't even been a whisper of such a thing. I suspect more likely someone has pointed out that parading them was contrary to the Geneva Convention.
I think he meant that rather than aiming to take prisoners, the combatants should simply be killed in fighting.
 

Cloud Strife

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It would be idiotic as well as war crime for Ukraine to be killing POWs and there hasn't even been a whisper of such a thing. I suspect more likely someone has pointed out that parading them was contrary to the Geneva Convention.

As AlterEgo says, it's very possible that they've switched from trying to take them prisoner to simply killing them instead. In terms of 'more likely to get through to ordinary Russians', a POW on Twitter is not likely to do much, but if more and more Russians soldiers simply go missing - then rumours will destroy Russia from inside and cause even more opposition to mobilisation.
 

ainsworth74

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As AlterEgo says, it's very possible that they've switched from trying to take them prisoner to simply killing them instead. In terms of 'more likely to get through to ordinary Russians', a POW on Twitter is not likely to do much, but if more and more Russians soldiers simply go missing - then rumours will destroy Russia from inside and cause even more opposition to mobilisation.
Gotcha but, at least to me, it read very differently!
 

DarloRich

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One thing that hasn't been reported is that the Ukrainians have stopped making propaganda videos with captured POWs. I wonder if this reflects a deliberate change of policy to simply kill them instead, as it's much harder for the Russians to cover up.
It has also been pointed out that the videos breach the Geneva Convention.
 

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