Russia invades Ukraine

[Annetts key]

It seems that the Ukrainians are going for 'death by a thousand cuts' rather than risking their forces in large attacks. It's a sensible tactic, especially if Russian forces start to struggle with basic nutritional needs.

Yes, this is how I would expect it. But at some point, if the Ukrainians continue to make life difficult for the Russian ground forces, especially if supplies are running out, some of the Russian forces may may decide to give up territory. If only in search of supplies…

If we go on the (almost certainly misleading maps), the length of the lines of the Russian advance are rather long. I don’t mean the distance from the border, but the difference between Ukrainian controlled and Russian controlled areas across the country. I’m hesitant to call them “front lines” as they may not be like traditional “front lines”.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Yes, this is how I would expect it. But at some point, if the Ukrainians continue to make life difficult for the Russian ground forces, especially if supplies are running out, some of the Russian forces may may decide to give up territory. If only in search of supplies…

If we go on the (almost certainly misleading maps), the length of the lines of the Russian advance are rather long. I don’t mean the distance from the border, but the difference between Ukrainian controlled and Russian controlled areas across the country. I’m hesitant to call them “front lines” as they may not be like traditional “front lines”.

The most reliable mapping I've found is this: https://www.scribblemaps.com/maps/view/The-War-in-Ukraine/091194 - they're basing this on evidence that they've seen directly, such as through videos and pictures rather than claims.

You're right about the length of the lines, and I think it's almost certain that in many areas, there's no real control of either side. Even the occupation of Kherson seems to be paper thin, as people are reporting that there's a complete lack of policing and local control. My impression is that the UAF have been happy to let the Russians extend their supply lines, although the lack of progress from the RF forces west of Donetsk has also been an eye-opener.

After reviewing Putin's speech yesterday about traitors, I'm starting to get the impression that he's going to turn on the Russian people. Could we see something unthinkable 2 months ago - a civil war in Russia?

 

[Giugiaro]

After reviewing Putin's speech yesterday about traitors, I'm starting to get the impression that he's going to turn on the Russian people. Could we see something unthinkable 2 months ago - a civil war in Russia?

Putin brought this into himself. Whatever outcome comes from this war he only has himself to blame.

The Russian people are not stupid. The country has had several social issues over the past two decades.
They might've copped with it, but starting a war that's restlessly consuming both Russian and Ukrainian souls without anyone asking for it may just be the last straw.

 

[DustyBin]

Yes, this is how I would expect it. But at some point, if the Ukrainians continue to make life difficult for the Russian ground forces, especially if supplies are running out, some of the Russian forces may may decide to give up territory. If only in search of supplies…

If we go on the (almost certainly misleading maps), the length of the lines of the Russian advance are rather long. I don’t mean the distance from the border, but the difference between Ukrainian controlled and Russian controlled areas across the country. I’m hesitant to call them “front lines” as they may not be like traditional “front lines”.

The other thing that I think is misleading is the way entire areas are shaded and deemed to be under Russian control. I'm really not convinced that this is the case; the Ukrainians appear to still be operating behind the "front lines" and much of what is shaded is contested to varying degrees. As you've alluded to, it's likely that the "front lines" are not clearly defined in a lot of areas.

The most reliable mapping I've found is this: https://www.scribblemaps.com/maps/view/The-War-in-Ukraine/091194 - they're basing this on evidence that they've seen directly, such as through videos and pictures rather than claims.

You're right about the length of the lines, and I think it's almost certain that in many areas, there's no real control of either side. Even the occupation of Kherson seems to be paper thin, as people are reporting that there's a complete lack of policing and local control. My impression is that the UAF have been happy to let the Russians extend their supply lines, although the lack of progress from the RF forces west of Donetsk has also been an eye-opener.

I hadn't seen your post when I wrote my initial reply above, but it looks like we've reached the same conclusion here.

After reviewing Putin's speech yesterday about traitors, I'm starting to get the impression that he's going to turn on the Russian people. Could we see something unthinkable 2 months ago - a civil war in Russia?

I'd rule nothing out at this point. In truth I don't know that much about Russian politics but there must be considerable opposition to this war within the upper echelons of Russian society and within the military. Putin, as feared as he is, has led Russia into an unmitigated disaster so I'd be surprised if there isn't a degree of plotting and scheming going on quietly (for now) in the background.

As an aside, the situation in Belarus could get interesting. Is Lukashenko defying Putin's orders to commit his forces? If so, why? I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Lukashenko toppled from within if he drags Belarus any further into this mess.

 

[Cloud Strife]

I'd rule nothing out at this point. In truth I don't know that much about Russian politics but there must be considerable opposition to this war within the upper echelons of Russian society and within the military. Putin, as feared as he is, has led Russia into an unmitigated disaster so I'd be surprised if there isn't a degree of plotting and scheming going on quietly (for now) in the background.

As an aside, the situation in Belarus could get interesting. Is Lukashenko defying Putin's orders to commit his forces? If so, why? I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Lukashenko toppled from within if he drags Belarus any further into this mess.

From everything that I've picked up on, there's definitely a lot of unhappiness among the middle class Russians. Not only have many of them fled (one suggestion is that up to 200,000 people left in the first 10 days of the invasion), but also it seems that Putin has broken the unwritten contract that he wouldn't bring harm to them as long as they were politically obedient. The RF also have issues with Putin over his FSB-first policy, which goes some way to explaining why the Russian forces are in such a state now. While I don't think Putin is in any danger *yet*, if they run the risk of running out of supplies and subsequently getting routed, the military might force Putin's hand.

Belarus is a really fascinating case. I was wondering the same, but as it turns out, Lukashenko has spent 25 years preaching that the Belarusian forces are for solely defensive purposes and that they aren't getting involved in foreign conflicts. It is apparently politically very difficult for him to pivot now, as a large majority of the Belarusian people are against war, and the Belarusian military leadership know fine well that the Belarusian forces are not equipped to fight an offensive war. If they go into Ukraine, there's also the very real risk that the battle-hardened Ukrainians will make mincemeat out of the Belarusians, which will mean the end of Lukashenko's rule.

I suspect that Putin wants Belarus involved, but Lukashenko (the master of political survival) knows that there's nothing to gain from it, and that Putin badly needs Belarus to stay in his orbit. If (and it's a big if) Lukashenko says 'no' to Putin, what can Putin realistically do? Invade Belarus?

I do think, all things considered, the West should be approaching Lukashenko with a deal he can't refuse - abandon Russia, join the Western orbit, and in exchange, the West will let him maintain his control over the country.

 

[Annetts key]

In truth I don't know that much about Russian politics but there must be considerable opposition to this war within the upper echelons of Russian society and within the military. Putin, as feared as he is, has led Russia into an unmitigated disaster so I'd be surprised if there isn't a degree of plotting and scheming going on quietly (for now) in the background.

Even if there is no current obvious threat, Putin will likely be imagining that there is. And he’s now going to be getting increasingly paranoid about it.

As an aside, the situation in Belarus could get interesting. Is Lukashenko defying Putin's orders to commit his forces? If so, why? I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Lukashenko toppled from within if he drags Belarus any further into this mess.

I suspect that Lukashenko has worked out that sending ‘his’ military into Ukraine would be a bad idea. He may see Putin as an ally, but I think he’s more interested in his own self preservation. And at this point. what’s Putin going to do if he ignores Putin’s wishes?

 

[Cloud Strife]

Even if there is no current obvious threat, Putin will likely be imagining that there is. And he’s now going to be getting increasingly paranoid about it.

I suspect that Lukashenko has worked out that sending ‘his’ military into Ukraine would be a bad idea. He may see Putin as an ally, but I think he’s more interested in his own self preservation. And at this point. what’s Putin going to do if he ignores Putin’s wishes?

It's this paranoia that can lead to disaster. His latest speech already makes it clear that the new enemy is domestic,

Lukashenko is no fool. He knows that locking up people in bad conditions will be quietly accepted by the West, but military intervention means the same crippling sanctions without any energy to sell. I suspect that the Belarusian forces also don't want to get involved, because they'll get the blame for the failure.

 

[AlterEgo]

There are rumours that Putin has, ahem, summoned several military commanders to remote locations. I wonder if we are about to see a purge.

 

[DarloRich]

There are rumours that Putin has, ahem, summoned several military commanders to remote locations. I wonder if we are about to see a purge.

Maybe they are going to do thier service animals: https://www.serviceanimals.com/#:~:text=Service Animals™ is an,an unforgettable, interactive learning experience. or perhaps work on emotional intelligence or unconscious bias

Service Animals™ is an online profiling and training tool that helps people understand their natural service style, how to recognise others’ profiles and develop techniques to adapt to them.

This builds stronger relationships and improves team dynamics through an unforgettable, interactive learning experience.

 

[Cloud Strife]

There are rumours that Putin has, ahem, summoned several military commanders to remote locations. I wonder if we are about to see a purge.

My gut feeling is that Putin knows that Russia is in serious trouble in Ukraine, and so the preparations are beginning for wide-scale mobilisation.

But this would be just another flawed tactic. Such mobilisation means a huge supply effort, so they'd need to pivot the Russian economy to a war economy. It would devastate the Russian economy for years, even if they succeeded in controlling Ukraine.

 

[AM9]

My gut feeling is that Putin knows that Russia is in serious trouble in Ukraine, and so the preparations are beginning for wide-scale mobilisation.

But this would be just another flawed tactic. Such mobilisation means a huge supply effort, so they'd need to pivot the Russian economy to a war economy. It would devastate the Russian economy for years, even if they succeeded in controlling Ukraine.

Surely it would take a bit more to switch the whole Russian economy into a war mode than a 68year old dictator thumping a conference table and then making threatening grimaces into a TV camera.It wouild need far more conviction from thousands of government officers than a Special Military Exercise. Even the full FSB of 60k+ bodies would be challenged to obey that.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Surely it would take a bit more to switch the whole Russian economy into a war mode than a 68year old dictator thumping a conference table and then making threatening grimaces into a TV camera.It wouild need far more conviction from thousands of government officers than a Special Military Exercise. Even the full FSB of 60k+ bodies would be challenged to obey that.

The problem is that the Russian psyche is heavily brainwashed with the Great Patriotic War and similar propganda. Even one refugee family that I arranged accommodation for here in Poland had a similar story - the grandparents are still in the (2014 occupied) Donetsk, and they believe that there's no war in the country.

 

[AM9]

The problem is that the Russian psyche is heavily brainwashed with the Great Patriotic War and similar propganda. Even one refugee family that I arranged accommodation for here in Poland had a similar story - the grandparents are still in the (2014 occupied) Donetsk, and they believe that there's no war in the country.

Does that brainwashing include the entire FSB?

 

[Cloud Strife]

Does that brainwashing include the entire FSB?

That's the million dollar question. United Russia is really an FSB project, and the FSB is a state within a state. Perhaps the best way to answer your question is to ask what happened to the Stasi in early 1990.

IMO, they won't hesitate to throw Putin under the bus as soon as it becomes politically desirable to do so.

 

[duncanp]

Interesting story in The Telegraph today about restaurants adding "donations for Ukraine" to people's bills automatically, and getting a bit stroppy if people ask for the donation to be removed.

I don't want to appear like Ebenezer Scrooge, but it should be for individuals to decide when and how much they donate to helping people in Ukraine, or any other charitable cause for that matter.

I would strongly object to what amounts to emotional blackmail.

Access Restricted

Restaurants pressure diners to add Ukraine donations onto bills​

Some customers say they felt 'emotionally blackmailed' into donating more

Restaurants in London have started to automatically add donations to Ukraine to all customer bills, irking diners who have already made separate contributions to humanitarian charities.

In one case a customer said he was denied service when he asked for the extra charge to be removed from the bill.

As many as 50 London eateries have joined an initiative called Cook For Ukraine, adding donations to Unicef directly to customers' bills. However, the charity watchdog has reminded restaurants not to put diners under pressure to give money.

Ted George, 51, whose name has been changed, lives in France but was holidaying in London when he was hit with extra charges. Mr George said he was shocked to be refused further service from one waitress at tapas restaurant Brindisa after he asked for the donation to be removed from his bill.

Mr George said he had already donated a sizeable amount to help the cause in Ukraine the week before, and had gifted more money during a collection on his flight to London.

“The waitress refused to speak to me as soon as I asked her to remove the donation from the total. She didn’t even give me a chance to explain that I have already donated money, she stormed off and her colleague had to replace her,” he said.

“I felt emotionally blackmailed into giving more. I am on holiday so I’ll be eating out every day. I don’t want to feel pressure to donate at every single meal and then be judged if I don’t.”

Kelly Richardson, of Brindisa, said he was “deeply embarrassed” to hear about Mr George’s experience.

He said: “We do not endorse this behaviour and it goes against company policy. We brought it in with great intentions and are very proud to be involved in the initiative. It is really disappointing and we respect anyone who doesn’t want to donate.”

A spokesman for the Fundraising Regulator said individuals and businesses must never make people feel under undue pressure to donate.

“The restaurant should advise diners of this before they pay their bill. The Code of Fundraising Practice is clear that fundraising should always be legal, open, honest and respectful,” he said.

Failure to disclose that a donation is voluntary and refusing service to someone who has declined to donate is “not within the spirit of the code” and could amount to a breach of the rules, he added.

A spokesman for Cook for Ukraine: "We are so very sorry to hear about the deeply uncomfortable experience that Mr George has had, this is very upsetting to hear. Our campaign is entirely voluntary and forcing donations is against our values. We appreciate all those who choose to donate or support in other ways and we completely respect that some individuals may not be in a position or want to do so."

Many of London's most famous and popular chains have started to add charity donations to bills as standard.

Soho House, a members' club, has added “invisible pierogies”, in a nod to the Eastern European dumpling, costing £3 to their menu to raise money for Unicef. It has committed to matching all funds raised, doubling the total contribution.

Restaurant chain Burger & Lobster has added £1 to every bill to help those suffering and displaced. Dino Sura, of Burger & Lobster, said: “The ongoing crisis in Ukraine is devastating and the situation is a matter for us all.”

People in Britain have donated more of their money to support besieged Ukrainians than any other country in the world, according to charity website GoFundMe. The Help Ukraine Emergency Appeal raised more than £2m, making it the biggest ever GoFundMe campaign in the country.

Aside from additional charges, the hospitality industry has reacted strongly against the Russian invasion, with many initiatives to raise cash including charity dinners, masterclasses and festivals. Some have donated a percentage of proceeds to charities working in Ukraine, put on special fund-raising dinners or coordinated donations of essential items.

 

[dakta]

"I don't want to appear like Ebenezer Scrooge, but it should be for individuals to decide when and how much they donate to helping people in Ukraine, or any other charitable cause for that matter."

You're not been Scrooge IMO I have very much the same opinion - I've done a few donations personally and also been rounding up my bill on occasion when asked - but that's far enough. I don't need to be coerced into donating and if i feel that way I'll naturally withdraw.

It's a tad disrespectful to assume people have the money to donate anyway regardless of stance, and it's rude to ask/assume.

 

[DustyBin]

Maybe related (or not!) to the situation in Ukraine, but there's a DC-8 over the west coast of Scotland at the minute according to Flightradar24. It's the one that delivers humanitarian aid hence the possible connection. It looks as though it's heading for either Prestwick or Newcastle. A rarity for anybody interested!

Edit: Definitely Prestwick.

 

[Trackman]

Interesting story in The Telegraph today about restaurants adding "donations for Ukraine" to people's bills automatically, and getting a bit stroppy if people ask for the donation to be removed.

I don't want to appear like Ebenezer Scrooge, but it should be for individuals to decide when and how much they donate to helping people in Ukraine, or any other charitable cause for that matter.

I would strongly object to what amounts to emotional blackmail.

A bit like service charges a lot of London eateries charge, a lot of people think they are obliged to pay because it's on the bill.

 

[brad465]

There are rumours that Putin has, ahem, summoned several military commanders to remote locations. I wonder if we are about to see a purge.

He'll summon them for a meeting to discuss the future of the offensive, while giving them presents thanking them for their efforts so far, but little do the commanders know the presents have been spiked with novichok.

 

[Cloud Strife]

The planes appeared to return quickly to Moscow, which points very much at this being a transfer of military personnel to various cities. There are three plausible scenarios here:

1. Putin wants trusted military personnel in these cities, pending some kind of escalation requiring coordination.
2. Putin wants them out of Moscow so they can't launch a coup.
3. Putin is losing it, and he ordered them out of Moscow so that they can be replaced with trusted goons.

But the more interesting thing has been the exodus of private jets from Moscow to Dubai. If these jets don't return within a few days, then we might be witnessing Putin's oligarchy crumbling around him.

 

[Peterthegreat]

The planes appeared to return quickly to Moscow, which points very much at this being a transfer of military personnel to various cities. There are three plausible scenarios here:

1. Putin wants trusted military personnel in these cities, pending some kind of escalation requiring coordination.
2. Putin wants them out of Moscow so they can't launch a coup.
3. Putin is losing it, and he ordered them out of Moscow so that they can be replaced with trusted goons.

But the more interesting thing has been the exodus of private jets from Moscow to Dubai. If these jets don't return within a few days, then we might be witnessing Putin's oligarchy crumbling around him.

Unfortunately I think 1) is much more likely.

 

[Chingy]

After the earlier military plane fiasco over Russia, we now have emerging social media rumours like the below;

https://twitter.com/Global_Mil_Info/status/1504580157079580676?t=nu--Zszs2pIy3Xx6nShnSQ&s=19

According to a recent Pentagon assessment by the DIA, Russia is expected to brandish threats to use nuclear weapons against the West if stiff Ukrainian resistance continues.

It does make one ponder where he his planning to go from here?

 

[dakta]

well I suppose you could mitigate that by asking Ukraine in your sweetest voice to stop resisting so much and lie still in the hope that somehow Ukraine will allow itself to be taken over for the wests sake. If they don't, and they won't guess it's ww3 time.

 

[Cloud Strife]

It does make one ponder where he his planning to go from here?

Retirement. Threatening a nuclear strike would almost certainly anger the Chinese, and Russia would be in deep trouble if the Chinese were to turn on them. If they were to actually use a nuclear weapon to flatten Kyiv, Russia could expect total economic shutdown within hours.

However, such threats are actually very reassuring. It would prove that the Russian military is weak, and means that the threat from Russia is no longer credible.

Unfortunately I think 1) is much more likely.

My gut feeling is that 1) is about an upcoming draft. They are known to have been compiling lists of 18 year olds in schools, and "throwing as many men at the problem until it goes away" is a proven Russian military tactic. However, this isn't 1945 anymore, and by doing this, they simply invite the West into providing even more anti-armour devices to tear them apart. 18 year olds would be absolutely hopeless against guerrilla warfare, as all you have to do is kill one of them and the rest will panic.

Another interesting takeaway from today: the Chinese are getting irritated. We're starting to see state-controlled Chinese media in the West talk about Russian crimes, Lavrov's plane returned randomly without actually going to China, and the Chinese are getting very vocal about their lack of support for Russia. Could we be seeing China move in line with the West due to the harm that the war is doing to the Chinese economy?

 

[DustyBin]

After the earlier military plane fiasco over Russia, we now have emerging social media rumours like the below;

https://twitter.com/Global_Mil_Info/status/1504580157079580676?t=nu--Zszs2pIy3Xx6nShnSQ&s=19

It does make one ponder where he his planning to go from here?

Try not to expose yourself to too much of this kind of stuff, it doesn’t do you any good (apologies if you’re not actually worried by it and I’ve got the wrong idea). I’ve stopped contributing to the Ukraine thread on another forum as it’s full of hysterical doom mongers, and to be honest it was starting to get to me so I’m not immune myself!

 

[Scotrail314209]

It is dangerous of people on social media to spread rumours of nuclear weapons, a hoax could easily be made up and put into the wrong hands which could cause mass panic.

I definitely think we are going to see a big draft of new Russian soldiers.

 

[jon0844]

It is dangerous of people on social media to spread rumours of nuclear weapons, a hoax could easily be made up and put into the wrong hands which could cause mass panic.

I definitely think we are going to see a big draft of new Russian soldiers.

I'm surprised it took a while for the deep fake videos to appear, and it is certainly the case that some 4chan style trolls may well find it amusing to get people all worked up into a mass panic.

 

[birchesgreen]

I wonder how they'll square a big draft of soldiers with there being "no war just a security operation"?

 

[DustyBin]

I wonder how they'll square a big draft of soldiers with there being "no war just a security operation"?

Good question actually, the cat is going to be well and truly out of the bag if it were to happen. “Our special military operation is SO special we don’t want anyone to miss out”……

 

[Drogba11CFC]

Not to mention that it takes time to train soldiers.