Russia invades Ukraine

[oldman]

I really wouldn't trust any Russian polling organisation right now.

I expect that some don't knows are really not telling but I don't think they would go to the trouble of inventing statistics with detailed breakdowns (age, gender, occupation, education, income etc.) showing a fair amount of opposition in some demographics, instead of the traditional method of just announcing that virtually everybody supports Putin.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Further proof that Putin can only keep the population in the dark for so long:

Ukraine war: Editor interrupts Russian TV news show

The woman held a sign reading "no war" behind a newsreader on Russian state-controlled TV.

www.bbc.co.uk

That is an incredibly brave woman, given the fate that she would have known likely awaits her now. For all the horrors and evil of this war and of Russia's actions, it's also amazing to see the ways that on occasions this has brought out the best of humanity. I hope when this is all over Ms. Ovsyannikova and all the countless others who have stuck their necks out in this way (in most cases, not so prominently) won't be forgotten.

 

[the sniper]

People seem to be assuming that if we imposed a no-fly-zone Putin would suddenly escalate to to a global (nuclear?) war. But that makes no sense in the light of Russia's past behaviour because they would know perfectly well that they could not get away with that - it would end up in their destruction.

I'm not sure why people assume the next step is a nuclear war. They wouldn't need to escalate things that far in retaliation to make things very uncomfortable for most people here or mainland Europe.

On the other hand, if, by continually refusing to get any more involved, we allow Putin to win in Ukraine, the result will almost certainly be a more powerful Russia with enlarged territory, and lots of Russian weapons sitting on the border of Poland and Romania, leading to us in the West being less safe (To say nothing of the fate of the Ukrainians). Personally, I find it astonishing that people seem unable to grasp that

Being in Ukraine will be about as useful to the Russians as the British Army being in Northern Ireland was during the Cold War.

 

[Cloud Strife]

On the other hand, if, by continually refusing to get any more involved, we allow Putin to win in Ukraine, the result will almost certainly be a more powerful Russia with enlarged territory, and lots of Russian weapons sitting on the border of Poland and Romania, leading to us in the West being less safe (To say nothing of the fate of the Ukrainians). Personally, I find it astonishing that people seem unable to grasp that

I've read one powerful argument as to why Putin can't win in Ukraine. It's the numbers game. The Battle of Berlin in 1945 required 1.5m people for the assault out of a total force of 2.3m. Berlin had around 2.8m people in 1945, and it's estimated that around 2m people remain in Kyiv today. Russia just doesn't have those numbers, and with modern war technology, conscripts will be eaten alive by the UAF who have tremendous amounts of support with aerial footage and so on.

I do expect China will use this to try and make Russia a vassal state to it. The only question is who will be running Russia when this happens.

I think it's almost certainly going to happen. Ukraine isn't going to fall easily, and some observers suggest that Russia is at their limits in terms of what they can realistically achieve. China will be the only ones capable of helping Russia out after the war ends, and I can see a very, very humiliating deal being signed after a military coup in Moscow.

I also think that the Russian military is the only institution in Russia that's capable of getting them out of this mess. The West will generally trust a Russian general, as their politicians and security forces are morally bankrupt there.

 

[AlterEgo]

lots of Russian weapons sitting on the border of Poland and Romania, leading to us in the West being less safe (To say nothing of the fate of the Ukrainians). Personally, I find it astonishing that people seem unable to grasp that

So when the weapons and bases of the other side are closer, you feel more threatened?

Good job it's only Russia which has tried to enforce a regime change by invasion recently, and not the West. Oh wait.

I'm not sure why people assume the next step is a nuclear war. They wouldn't need to escalate things that far in retaliation to make things very uncomfortable for most people here or mainland Europe.

A nuclear war is indeed several orders of escalation higher than a no fly zone. But it is a tangible risk. At the moment the conflict is manageable as far as Western strategic interests go.

Being in Ukraine will be about as useful to the Russians as the British Army being in Northern Ireland was during the Cold War.

Quite.

Russia is severely weakened, has lost a ton of materiel, has undone 25 years of economic progress in one night, has become further dependent on China, and its political inner circle is under serious pressure and will be in the future. Further to this, it has exposed the parlous state of the Russian military, absolutely laughable that they have had to huff and puff like this.

It is a colossal mistake from Putin, a mega own goal. We do not manoeuvre while the enemy is making a mistake and the harsh reality is that places like Kiev and Mariupol and Donbas are expendable in the long term interests of the West.

 

[bspahh]

This is an updated twitter thread on the 40 mile Russian convoy by Tomi T Ahonen

Thread by @tomiahonen on Thread Reader App

@tomiahonen: Aftermath of 40 Mile Convoy Thread/1 It is day 19 of Ukraine War. On Day 1, a mysterious convoy of 40 miles (64km) became stuck on the shortest road from Belarus to Kyiv. & while...

threadreaderapp.com

The summary is that the convoy is stuck, but Ukraine hasn't had to attack it, as it isn't going anywhere. It is the supplies for the 7 divisions, with 70000 troops and 7000 armoured vehicles, which were to attack Kyiv. Those have run out of fuel, and there is limited capacity for resupply by air. The 7 divisions need 2 million gallons of fuel each day for full mobile action.

It ends with:

It is looking increasingly likely, that Ukraine will be able to prevent Russian army in the North, from EVER encircling Kyiv. The opportunity seems to be lost to Russia

 

[ABB125]

This is an updated twitter thread on the 40 mile Russian convoy by Tomi T Ahonen

Thread by @tomiahonen on Thread Reader App

@tomiahonen: Aftermath of 40 Mile Convoy Thread/1 It is day 19 of Ukraine War. On Day 1, a mysterious convoy of 40 miles (64km) became stuck on the shortest road from Belarus to Kyiv. & while...

threadreaderapp.com

The summary is that the convoy is stuck, but Ukraine hasn't had to attack it, as it isn't going anywhere. It is the supplies for the 7 divisions, with 70000 troops and 7000 armoured vehicles, which were to attack Kyiv. Those have run out of fuel, and there is limited capacity for resupply by air. The 7 divisions need 2 million gallons of fuel each day for full mobile action.

It ends with:

2 million gallons of fuel for 7000 vehicles is 285 gallons per vehicle per day. Surely that can't be right?

 

[bspahh]

2 million gallons of fuel for 7000 vehicles is 285 gallons per vehicle per day. Surely that can't be right?

The tweet said

A Russian T 80 tank has 2,000 liter (525 gallon) fuel capacity. An BMP-3 armored vehicle 700 liters.

The Wikipedia article on a T80 says the internal fuel tank takes 1100 litres, with 740 litres in external tanks (242 and 163 UK gallons), and that the range on roads using the internal and external tanks is 415km or 258 miles, which works out at 0.64 mpg. They can go 50mph on roads, so they could run out of fuel in 5 hours. Off road, the fuel economy would be worse.

 

[Shaw S Hunter]

2 million gallons of fuel for 7000 vehicles is 285 gallons per vehicle per day. Surely that can't be right?

Armoured vehicles are incredibly thirsty, tanks especially so. And the T-80 has a gas turbine engine which continues to drink fuel even when stationary. It was designed with the expectation it would be used in a modern day blitzkrieg across the European plain but this war has become more about attempting to capture urban centres so is more static in nature. Then add in a certain amount of self-sabotage by reluctant Russians seeking to avoid actual conflict and it's no surprise that fuel shortage is such a big issue. Russia's military planners seem to have either got things seriously wrong or have deliberately set themselves up to fail. Unfortunately they are still in a position to wreak havoc on at least some of Ukraine.

 

[class ep-09]

Armoured vehicles are incredibly thirsty, tanks especially so. And the T-80 has a gas turbine engine which continues to drink fuel even when stationary. It was designed with the expectation it would be used in a modern day blitzkrieg across the European plain but this war has become more about attempting to capture urban centres so is more static in nature. Then add in a certain amount of self-sabotage by reluctant Russians seeking to avoid actual conflict and it's no surprise that fuel shortage is such a big issue. Russia's military planners seem to have either got things seriously wrong or have deliberately set themselves up to fail. Unfortunately they are still in a position to wreak havoc on at least some of Ukraine.

To add to that - russian soldiers need to eat something - so they sell diesel for food as they have no supplies coming or the supplies are out of date or food trucks are targeted by Ukrainians .

 

[AlterEgo]

2 million gallons of fuel for 7000 vehicles is 285 gallons per vehicle per day. Surely that can't be right?

There are a number of Ukraine War grifters on Twitter who don’t have any credentials or experience and hence should be viewed with suspicion. That’s not to say they’re always wrong but there’s a lot of wishcasting going on because everyone wants the Russians to fail.

Ukraine is just the new covid as far as un-credentialed grifters go.

 

[Peterthegreat]

There are a number of Ukraine War grifters on Twitter who don’t have any credentials or experience and hence should be viewed with suspicion. That’s not to say they’re always wrong but there’s a lot of wishcasting going on because everyone wants the Russians to fail.

Ukraine is just the new covid as far as un-credentialed grifters go.

Absolutely.

 

[GB]

This is an updated twitter thread on the 40 mile Russian convoy by Tomi T Ahonen

Thread by @tomiahonen on Thread Reader App

@tomiahonen: Aftermath of 40 Mile Convoy Thread/1 It is day 19 of Ukraine War. On Day 1, a mysterious convoy of 40 miles (64km) became stuck on the shortest road from Belarus to Kyiv. & while...

threadreaderapp.com

The summary is that the convoy is stuck, but Ukraine hasn't had to attack it, as it isn't going anywhere. It is the supplies for the 7 divisions, with 70000 troops and 7000 armoured vehicles, which were to attack Kyiv. Those have run out of fuel, and there is limited capacity for resupply by air. The 7 divisions need 2 million gallons of fuel each day for full mobile action.

It ends with:

If they are now effectively sitting ducks I think *I would now take the opportunity to go at them. Wouldn't like to risk even a couple of divisions gaining supplies and moving forward.

*Obviously I am not a war expert of in receipt of the full facts.

 

[LowLevel]

If they are now effectively sitting ducks I think *I would now take the opportunity to go at them. Wouldn't like to risk even a couple of divisions gaining supplies and moving forward.

*Obviously I am not a war expert of in receipt of the full facts.

Why waste the time? They're a good morale sapper just being known to be stuck there in ever worsening conditions, particularly if they're blocking the approach of other forces. You can blow them up at your leisure if you really want to at some point when things are less critical.

 

[AlterEgo]

*Obviously I am not a war expert of in receipt of the full facts.

I wouldn't worry, neither is the grifter writing the thread:

Author, consultant, motivational speaker. Biggest social media slut in mobile. A mAd vidiot, F1 fan, globetrotting digital gypsy 007 wannabe.

 

[TheEdge]

If they are now effectively sitting ducks I think *I would now take the opportunity to go at them. Wouldn't like to risk even a couple of divisions gaining supplies and moving forward.

*Obviously I am not a war expert of in receipt of the full facts.

Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake - Napoleon

An unsupplied convoy of stuck vehicles has removed itself from the battle. Why waste weapons and risk men on that who could be doing something more important? There is a report that Ukrainian command is much more interested in keeping artillery out of range of Kyiv than worrying about tanks.

Those tanks and armoured vehicles will be much juicer targets (and more critical) if and when they ever manage to get into Kyiv properly.

 

[Simon11]

If they are now effectively sitting ducks I think *I would now take the opportunity to go at them. Wouldn't like to risk even a couple of divisions gaining supplies and moving forward.

*Obviously I am not a war expert of in receipt of the full facts.

Far better to blow up the road behind and after the convey, to ensure they are royally stuck. As soon as they start repairing the bridges, do it again.

Save the bullets for when they really need them!

 

[DarloRich]

The prime ministers of Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovenia are travelling to meet Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Kyiv

Guardian:
In statements from their respective capitals, the three leaders said they would be offering their support to Ukraine’s president as representatives of the other 24 EU heads of state and government.

The move by Poland’s Mateusz Morawiecki, his Czech counterpart, Petr Fiala, and Slovenia’s Janez Janša was said to be an attempt to bolster Ukraine in its fight for its sovereignty. They will also meet the Ukrainian prime minister, Denys Shmyhal.

Fiala tweeted: “The aim of the visit is to express the European Union’s unequivocal support for Ukraine and its freedom and independence.

‘Europe stands with you’: EU leaders vow support for Ukraine during Kyiv visit

Leaders of Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovenia express ‘unequivocal support’ for Ukraine after making perilous journey by train to meet Zelenskiy

www.theguardian.com

 

[tommy2215]

The prime ministers of Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovenia are travelling to meet Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Kyiv

‘Europe stands with you’: EU leaders vow support for Ukraine during Kyiv visit

Leaders of Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovenia express ‘unequivocal support’ for Ukraine after making perilous journey by train to meet Zelenskiy

www.theguardian.com

Really really hope that everything goes ok for them. The Russians are not exactly being careful about who gets hurt. It wouldn't bet against Putin specifically targeting them if he could (And blame it on Ukraine of course).

 

[AlterEgo]

I see the Guardian hasn't picked up these nations are part of the Visegrad Group and often act as a mini-bloc. Still, it's good to see their support for their neighbour.

 

[SJL2020]

I see the Guardian hasn't picked up these nations are part of the Visegrad Group and often act as a mini-bloc. Still, it's good to see their support for their neighbour.

Because its Slovenia not Slovakia ?

 

[AlterEgo]

Because its Slovenia not Slovakia ?

I blame these Russian spectacles I have.

 

[Doppelganger]

Because its Slovenia not Slovakia ?

There is also no Hungary, but I think Orban is in too deep with the Russians himself!

 

[Roast Veg]

There is also no Hungary, but I think Orban is in too deep with the Russians himself!

Even Orban and le Pen have been surprisingly against the invasion lately.

 

[adc82140]

Orban could be useful as a mediator. A NATO member but close to Putin.

A random thought: If an individual NATO member did something reckless like deciding to police a no fly zone alone without the consent of the others, and found itself getting attacked, would NATO be obliged to step in?

 

[Doppelganger]

Even Orban and le Pen have been surprisingly against the invasion lately.

Orban has failed to shut down the Russian International Investment Bank in Hungary, despite Poland, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Romania doing so. He has also refused any arms to be moved through Hungary to Ukraine.

I might be alright with the last point if he hadn't allowed Russian weapons to pass through Hungary heading to Serbia in 2019.

 

[AlterEgo]

Orban could be useful as a mediator. A NATO member but close to Putin.

Orban has an election coming up. Expect him to distance himself a fair bit.

 

[bahnause]

There are a number of Ukraine War grifters on Twitter who don’t have any credentials or experience and hence should be viewed with suspicion. That’s not to say they’re always wrong but there’s a lot of wishcasting going on because everyone wants the Russians to fail.

Ukraine is just the new covid as far as un-credentialed grifters go.

There are many very realiable and competent sources on Twitter. They do what they did for years, but they have a lot more attention now.

Fact is: Russia hast lost already, no matter what happens next. What we see now ist not even plan B, it is plan C at best. It is quite obvious the only had plan A to start with. Russia has not achieved a single key military object. It has commited around 55% of its regular ground forces to Ukraine. While there are forces still in Russia for reinforcements, they are either on other missions, in training, or of a lower quality (esp. their reserves).

Plan C seems to be: Hold current gains, use long range firepower on cities, destroy as much infrastructure and manufacturing capacity as possible, commit warcrimes to intimidate. Basicly the war campaign has been transformed into a terror campaign. There is no off ramp to transform this tactics into a winning strategy.

 

[Howardh]

There are many very realiable and competent sources on Twitter. They do what they did for years, but they have a lot more attention now.

Fact is: Russia hast lost already, no matter what happens next. What we see now ist not even plan B, it is plan C at best. It is quite obvious the only had plan A to start with. Russia has not achieved a single key military object. It has commited around 55% of its regular ground forces to Ukraine. While there are forces still in Russia for reinforcements, they are either on other missions, in training, or of a lower quality (esp. their reserves).

Plan C seems to be: Hold current gains, use long range firepower on cities, destroy as much infrastructure and manufacturing capacity as possible, commit warcrimes to intimidate. Basicly the war campaign has been transformed into a terror campaign. There is no off ramp to transform this tactics into a winning strategy.

If the Russians destroy those cities completely, and all the Ukranian men (for now) manage to either get into the countryside or even out of the country like the women/children; what exactly have the Russians "won"? They can say "it's neutral now" but all they have is rubble for their money. Are they intending rebuilding? Another Russian state? From scratch? Meanwhile all the Ukrainian men decamped to the countryside I would imagine armed....start to fight back and we have a 6-year civil war?

Putin won't, but he should cut his demands to part-control of the east and get this horrendous mis-calculation over with. But as he won't I'm hoping the Russians will do that below him and take Putin out of the equation.

 

[rvdborgt]

If the Russians destroy those cities completely, and all the Ukranian men (for now) manage to either get into the countryside or even out of the country like the women/children; what exactly have the Russians "won"? They can say "it's neutral now" but all they have is rubble for their money.

... and the sizable oil and gas fields.