Russia invades Ukraine

[adc82140]

Interestingly, RT's take on it isn't that much different (Note the sub-head!):

WWIII will be nuclear – Moscow

Third world war will be fought with nuclear weaponry, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov claims, as Moscow attacks Ukraine

www.rt.com

But it's nothing new. It's been accepted for decades that WW3 will be fought using nuclear weapons, and WW4 will be fought using sticks. He is effectively restating that and also the concept of Mutually Assured Destruction

 

[najaB]

But it's nothing new. It's been accepted for decades that WW3 will be fought using nuclear weapons, and WW4 will be fought using sticks. He is effectively restating that and also the concept of Mutually Assured Destruction

It's the sub-head that's interesting. Normally the "WW3 will end humanity" message is accompanied by "Of course, we would never do anything to start such a war, it's the our enemies who are the aggressors."

In this case, however, RT specifically calls out that it was Russia who put ratcheted up the rhetoric by putting their forces on "high alert". Later in the article they've used quotes around Putin's claims:

He insisted that the move comes after the “illegitimate sanctions” against Moscow and “aggressive statements” made by US and EU officials.

Rather than just stating them.

 

[adc82140]

It's the sub-head that's interesting. Normally the "WW3 will end humanity" message is accompanied by "Of course, we would never do anything to start such a war, it's the our enemies who are the aggressors."

In this case, however, RT specifically calls out that it was Russia who put ratcheted up the rhetoric by putting their forces on "high alert". Later in the article they've used quotes around Putin's claims:

Rather than just stating them.

Do you think a RT journo has gone rogue?

 

[najaB]

Do you think a RT journo has gone rogue?

Either that or someone made some edits while the site was offline!

 

[Gostav]

https://twitter.com/ndtvfeed/status/1499232614238113797

US Considers Sanctions On India After It Abstained To Vote On Russia

Sanctions For India Over S-400 Deal With Russia? US Diplomat Said This

US President Joe Biden will decide whether to apply or waive sanctions on India, one of America's key partners, under CAATSA law for its purchase of the S-400 missile defence system from Russia, a senior administration official has told lawmakers.

www.ndtv.com

Looks like the struggle is expanding.

 

[Ediswan]

Either that or someone made some edits while the site was offline!

Can we be sure that the restored site is the original. It would be quite sneaky to hijack the site, then gradually change the tone of the content.

 

[adc82140]

Another article is now referring to a Russian "offensive" in Ukraine. This is most definitely not the normal style of RT.

 

[GS250]

Interestingly, RT's take on it isn't that much different (Note the sub-head!):

WWIII will be nuclear – Moscow

Third world war will be fought with nuclear weaponry, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov claims, as Moscow attacks Ukraine

www.rt.com

to be fair they are just stating the obvious here.

 

[DanNCL]

For god sake I wish everyone would stop panicking about nuclear war. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is not going to lead to nuclear war.

Rather than panicking about something that’s almost certain not to happen, maybe people should focus on the catastrophe that’s happening in Mariupol, where all power, water and transport links have been cut off to civilians, and temperatures are set to be sub zero tonight. Not to mention the heavy shelling that city has been bombarded with.

I saw a video a couple of days ago from Mariupol, of a teenage boy singing what I think was the national anthem of Ukraine, alone in a public square. You could hear the emotion and fear in his voice and see it on his face. It brought tears to my eyes. Stuff like this is what should be in people’s minds right now, not threats of a nuclear war that almost certainly won’t happen.

 

[Cloud Strife]

It might not be what he gains from supporting it, as much as what he would lose by opposing it.

There remains a question as to whether Belarus has actually sent troops into Ukraine. Lukashenko will be well aware that the country has weak and ineffective troops, and that any invasion by Belarus could result in attacks by Ukraine. From a propaganda point of view, Ukraine is trying to drag Belarus into this, as they know that Russian-style sanctions will cripple Belarus faster than Russia.

Belarusian society (and Lukashenko's government) are rather anti-war, and part of Lukashenko's offer to the Belarusian people is that they aren't going to get involved in conflict. Ukraine also made it very clear to Belarus that they will strike back if they're attacked by Belarusian forces.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 3 Mar 2022 ==

For god sake I wish everyone would stop panicking about nuclear war. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is not going to lead to nuclear war.

Likewise. A lot of people in Poland are worried sick about this, but it's *very* obvious to my British eyes that the worst-case scenario is that Ukraine falls completely and becomes another Belarus-style dictatorship. However, the odds of that happening are slim, given that Russia doesn't really have the means to hold and control Western Ukraine.

 

[TheEdge]

The woman is identified as being 77 years old, and a civilian survivor of the 872-day-long Siege of Leningrad:

Russian pensioner 'who survived siege of Leningrad' arrested for protest against Ukraine war – video

A 77-year-old artist and activist is detained by police at an anti-war protest in St Petersburgh

www.theguardian.com

Something dubious there. If she's 77 she was born in 1945, the Siege of Leningrad was lifted in January 1944...

 

[YorkshireBear]

Something dubious there. If she's 77 she was born in 1945, the Siege of Leningrad was lifted in January 1944...

Of course she could be born in march 44, however even that misses it. Good critical thinking on show there from you! Shame journalists are incapable of basic maths, unless she's claiming as an unborn she survived it.

 

[adc82140]

There remains a question as to whether Belarus has actually sent troops into Ukraine. Lukashenko will be well aware that the country has weak and ineffective troops, and that any invasion by Belarus could result in attacks by Ukraine. From a propaganda point of view, Ukraine is trying to drag Belarus into this, as they know that Russian-style sanctions will cripple Belarus faster than Russia.

Belarusian society (and Lukashenko's government) are rather anti-war, and part of Lukashenko's offer to the Belarusian people is that they aren't going to get involved in conflict. Ukraine also made it very clear to Belarus that they will strike back if they're attacked by Belarusian forces.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 3 Mar 2022 ==



Likewise. A lot of people in Poland are worried sick about this, but it's *very* obvious to my British eyes that the worst-case scenario is that Ukraine falls completely and becomes another Belarus-style dictatorship. However, the odds of that happening are slim, given that Russia doesn't really have the means to hold and control Western Ukraine.

I can see a divided Ukraine. I'm not sure how interested Putin is in places like Lviv. I'm sure he once said that it should be returned to Poland.

 

[Ediswan]

Something dubious there. If she's 77 she was born in 1945, the Siege of Leningrad was lifted in January 1944...

The article now says 'an elderly activist'. Maybe she was asked her age and got it wrong.

 

[Butts]

Lavrov is an interesting character here. He’s been downplaying things for Russia for a week now, but who knows how sincerely to take him?

He looks like an extra from spitting image !!

Just to think the rise of Putin and the current situation had it's genesis in Boris Yeltsin needing to borrow $100 Million to win the 1996 Russian Election- or was it to pay his bar bill

 

[Caboose Class]

Something dubious there. If she's 77 she was born in 1945, the Siege of Leningrad was lifted in January 1944...

She has a Wikipage - she was definitely born in 1945. Well spotted!!

 

[Cloud Strife]

I can see a divided Ukraine. I'm not sure how interested Putin is in places like Lviv. I'm sure he once said that it should be returned to Poland.

I can see it too. I was expecting this to happen from the beginning, and I think it's noteworthy that Russia has barely touched solidly Ukrainian-speaking cities like Lviv and Ivano-Frankivsk. Poles are reporting that Western Ukraine has been fortified with checkpoints and defensive structures everywhere, plus the population is incredibly hostile towards Russian as it is.

From Russia's point of view, most of Ukraine's interesting mineral deposits are east of the Dnieper, and controlling the Dnieper would let them ensure water supply into Crimea too.

 

[kristiang85]

She has a Wikipage - she was definitely born in 1945. Well spotted!!

Yep, there lots of this what I call "heartstrings propaganda" about. Given the actual situation facing actual people right now, it's completely unnecessary. As @DanNCL says above, you just need to look at Mariupol to see an incredibly sad catastrophe unfolding.

 

[squizzler]

There is an article on the realities of financial warfare that I found quite interesting.

The west has declared all-out financial war with Russia. What does this mean?​

Sanctions are a form of war, not an alternative to it, and like war, they are dangerous, damaging and unpredictable in impact

War is never just a matter of soldiers and weapons. Indeed, economic warfare has been a central overt aspect of war, especially obvious since the beginning of the 20th century. It still is today, but we call it “sanctions”. But sanctions are a form of war, not an alternative to it, and like war, dangerous, damaging and unpredictable in impact.

 

[brad465]

https://twitter.com/ndtvfeed/status/1499232614238113797

Looks like the struggle is expanding.

By the same logic they should consider sanctioning China (although maybe this is why the latter is starting to distance from Russia), and if they really want to go further, threaten the UK with sanctions for not being serious enough with our own sanctions (i.e. giving oligarchs a month's notice to liquidate their assets and get out).

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 3 Mar 2022 ==

It's not just Ukrainians fleeing their country because of the war, looks like a number of Russian citizens are desperately trying to flee Russia because of it too:

‘My future is taken away from me’: Russians flee to escape consequences of Moscow’s war

Growing numbers of Russians are leaving the country, fearful of possible martial law and the war’s consequences

www.theguardian.com

Alexei Trubetskoy knew he had to get out the moment he woke up and looked at his phone on the morning of Russia’s invasion into Ukraine.

“I got up, checked the news in disbelief and realized I had to leave as soon as I can,” he said. Trubetskoy, who runs an English language school in Moscow, bought a ticket to Sri Lanka on the same day.

“It was clear to me that the horrible invasion will change Russia forever.”

A growing number of Russians have decided to leave their country following Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine, fearing the economic and political consequences the move will have.

“I hope to return to the country I love, but it is completely unclear what will happen next. My future is taken away from me, the country won’t be the same,” Trubetskoy said.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ldren-for-laying-flowers-at-ukrainian-embassy
Russia has already seen a major crackdown on those opposing the invasion.

More than 7,500 people have so far been detained at anti-war protests across the country, according to the independent monitoring site OVD-Info. A number of the country’s independent news outlets have also been forced to shut down.

But those who leave are also fearful of the economic uncertainties that the country now faces: the Russian rouble and financial markets crashed this week after the West implemented crippling sanctions, and Moscow has also seen a mass exodus of western companies, including Ikea, Apple and Nike.

Google analytics showed that the word “emigration” saw a spike in searches over the last week while countless Telegram channels have been set up in which worried Russians are discussing ways to leave the country.

Andrei Kolesnikov, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, said it was expected that the country would see an exodus of its “quality working force” who will sense there is “no future” for them in Russia.

“This exodus will mean the degradation of the nation. The country doesn’t have a very large pool of talented people. Without them, Russia can’t develop itself,” Kolesnikov said

The exodus has been fuelled by rumours that authorities could declare martial law as soon as Friday, when the federation council, Russia’s upper house of parliament, is due to hold a unscheduled meeting.

Such a move would be unprecedented in modern Russian history and could involve mass mobilization of the male population as well as the closure of borders, according to an official document describing the law.

“I got my family together after a friend at the ‘top’ called me about this martial law thing. We booked the first plane available on Tuesday and flew to a random country I have never been before,” said Anton, a senior manager at a major Russian oil and gas firm. “I am not planning to fight in this war that wasn’t my decision to begin with.”

 

[swissrailpassion]

Trains are still running from Kyiv and Kharkiv, I'm sure our thoughts are with the railway workers keeping vital trains moving.

 

[Cdd89]

There is an article on the realities of financial warfare that I found quite interesting.

I agree. It’s also very possible that sanctions may take more ‘lives’ than direct warfare — it’s just those deaths are not directly linked, i.e. relating to reduced quality of life years rather than immediate deaths.

Not saying it’s the wrong thing to do, btw.

 

[dgl]

Related, I have just had an email from Tesco, not only saying that they are making a donation of £1m to the red cross appeal, will be doubling employee/customer donations up to £1m and have been donating supplies from their bases in Hungary, but for anyone who is on one of their mobile plans or has one of their calling cards, calls to Ukraine from the UK/ROI are free.
Also they are allowing free transfers of money to Ukraine using their Moneygram service.

 

[Scotrail314209]

More than 500 international students trapped in Ukrainian town – as it happened

Hundreds of students are stranded in Sumy in the north-east after days of shelling

amp.theguardian.com

This just in: Ukraine and Russia have agreed to temporary, local ceasefires to allow the evacuation of civilians as well as aid deliveries via safe corridors.

Local ceasefires agreed between Russia and Ukraine.

 

[Shaw S Hunter]

More than 500 international students trapped in Ukrainian town – as it happened

Hundreds of students are stranded in Sumy in the north-east after days of shelling

amp.theguardian.com

Local ceasefires agreed between Russia and Ukraine.

So far I believe that only the principle has been agreed rather than actual locations. It will almost certainly be down to Russian commanders on the ground to decide the practical arrangements. And that will probably only happen to avoid the inconvenience, to the Russians, of having to set up a full-blown siege of a particular city. Too late for Kherson and Mariupol, maybe it will happen at Kharkiv.

 

[Shrop]

This seems counterintuitive im sure but its possible Putin thought he could just walk in and get what he wanted without too much aggro and now thats not happened he's having to get in much deeper so he doesn't lose face at home. The West needs to give him a Golden Bridge rather than just keep upping the ante in what almost seems like the West trying to outdo each other on sanctions without realising there will be consequences elsewhere in the world from the economic damage that is being done.

I fear you're right, a Golden Bridge seems to be the only way out for the West. Putin has already won this war hands down - he's broken many rules such as using banned weapons, and he's prepared to lie many times over, claiming his troops aren't aiming at civilian targets etc. And yet he probably stands even less chance of ever having to answer for this than Boris having to account for his Covid parties.
Putin is openly stating that he wants to restore Russia to what it was prior to Yeltsin, which clearly includes Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Georgia, Moldova etc. All he's doing now is sussing out how the West will respond, and he must be laughing at the lack of response. Sanctions will hurt his people, but how much does that matter when his position doesn't depend on a vote? They won't actually hurt him much at all, nor those close to him. What else are the West doing, banning athletes who were already tarnished by drugs? It's something of a joke thinking that anything the west is doing is hurting Putin at present, so after this present test of his, invasion of other former Russian countries may follow with similar impunity in a few years' time. And then what. Poland, Slovakia, even East Germany? After all, NATO and/or the UN can't resolve to take any action in case Russia exercises its veto at the meeting where it's discussed.
So yes, the West must be to prepared to concede (eg. recognise Crimea and likely at least half of the rest of Ukraine as parts of Russia too) as well as offering all manner of pardons to Putin for what he's already done. Because Putin has already demonstrated that he can outwit the West very easily.
Now please tell me why I'm wrong. I hope I am.

 

[YorkshireBear]

I am also reading the airliners.net threads on this. Aviation wise it looks the the Russian government have a plan to steal (they say nationalise) all the leased planes that the lessors want to get back. Interesting move, effectively cutting off their entire aviation sector with the west for the next decade.

 

[tommy2215]

I fear you're right, a Golden Bridge seems to be the only way out for the West. Putin has already won this war hands down - he's broken many rules such as using banned weapons, and he's prepared to lie many times over, claiming his troops aren't aiming at civilian targets etc. And yet he probably stands even less chance of ever having to answer for this than Boris having to account for his Covid parties.
Putin is openly stating that he wants to restore Russia to what it was prior to Yeltsin, which clearly includes Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Georgia, Moldova etc. All he's doing now is sussing out how the West will respond, and he must be laughing at the lack of response. Sanctions will hurt his people, but how much does that matter when his position doesn't depend on a vote? They won't actually hurt him much at all, nor those close to him. What else are the West doing, banning athletes who were already tarnished by drugs? It's something of a joke thinking that anything the west is doing is hurting Putin at present, so after this present test of his, invasion of other former Russian countries may follow with similar impunity in a few years' time. And then what. Poland, Slovakia, even East Germany? After all, NATO and/or the UN can't resolve to take any action in case Russia exercises its veto at the meeting where it's discussed.
So yes, the West must be to prepared to concede (eg. recognise Crimea and likely at least half of the rest of Ukraine as parts of Russia too) as well as offering all manner of pardons to Putin for what he's already done. Because Putin has already demonstrated that he can outwit the West very easily.
Now please tell me why I'm wrong. I hope I am.

It is not Putin's plan to annex Ukraine into Russia. That would be very bad for the Russian economy and would be very difficult to keep order in Ukraine. What is more likely is he splits Ukraine in to two, with East Ukraine being a client state like Belarus. If not that, then force Zelensky to sign legally binding documents which mean Ukraine can't join NATO or the EU and can only have a limited army, as well as recognition that Crimea is part of Russia.

 

[Iskra]

I fear you're right, a Golden Bridge seems to be the only way out for the West. Putin has already won this war hands down - he's broken many rules such as using banned weapons, and he's prepared to lie many times over, claiming his troops aren't aiming at civilian targets etc. And yet he probably stands even less chance of ever having to answer for this than Boris having to account for his Covid parties.
Putin is openly stating that he wants to restore Russia to what it was prior to Yeltsin, which clearly includes Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Georgia, Moldova etc. All he's doing now is sussing out how the West will respond, and he must be laughing at the lack of response. Sanctions will hurt his people, but how much does that matter when his position doesn't depend on a vote? They won't actually hurt him much at all, nor those close to him. What else are the West doing, banning athletes who were already tarnished by drugs? It's something of a joke thinking that anything the west is doing is hurting Putin at present, so after this present test of his, invasion of other former Russian countries may follow with similar impunity in a few years' time. And then what. Poland, Slovakia, even East Germany? After all, NATO and/or the UN can't resolve to take any action in case Russia exercises its veto at the meeting where it's discussed.
So yes, the West must be to prepared to concede (eg. recognise Crimea and likely at least half of the rest of Ukraine as parts of Russia too) as well as offering all manner of pardons to Putin for what he's already done. Because Putin has already demonstrated that he can outwit the West very easily.
Now please tell me why I'm wrong. I hope I am.

He hasn't. The Ukrainian Government still functions, the people still fight and the casualties are high. Russia is in economic meltdown and Putin is scared of his own people- hence 6000 arrests and martial law coming. He may well win eventually, but will it be worth it?

 

[Robski]

A passenger train in Poland carrying refugees from the Ukrainian border has derailed on a section of track (LK 108) that was opened today to ease border crossings. The train was a last minute substitution by PolRegio and the local authority after the operator that was meant to run the train, SKPL (shortlines.pl), withdrew their timetable. No injuries reported, although evacuation was delayed due to the remote location of the derailment.

https://www.rynek-kolejowy.pl/wiado...-pociag-z-uchodzcami-z-kroscienka-106987.html (in polish) - the author is Jakub Madrjas, RK is a reliable news source and has been extensively covering rail related news in the current conflict.

Translation:

The reopening of rail line number 108 between Zagórz and the border at Krościenko has not gone to plan. The first train, operated by request of the local authority, carrying refugees has derailed. The refugees are waiting in the railbus.*

The derailment took place on the section between Ustianow and Olszanice, a section on which trains have not run [for a long time]. According to [magazine name]'s informed sources, no one was injured, however passengers are unable to leave the train. The area is hard to get to in terms of organising alternative transport arrangements.

Even yesterday it was still expected that the inaugural train was meant to be operated by private operator SKPL with units imported from Holland. However, this morning the operator informed that the timetable for trains by this operator has been withdrawn. Ultimately, a train formed of SA140 units operated by PolRegio was sent at the local authority's request to pick up the refugees gathered at Krościenko. The refugees were meant to get to get to Tarnow in the train. On the section Jasło - Krosno a replacement bus service has been provided.

PKP PLK has issued a statement, informing that the train operating on relation Krościenko – Tarnów was stopped after 15:30 on the section between Ustrzyki Dolne – Uherce. The carriages are on the track. The first bogie has derailed. No danger was posed to the passengers. The defect occurred on a snowed section of mountain track - says the infrastructure manager, reassuring that in the stranded train passengers "have guaranteed safe waiting conditions to the time of rescue and access to the latest information". Heating and water is available.

A replacement train was sent from Zagórz to allow passengers to continue their journey. The area is secured. Engineers are already on site - said the infrastructure manager, reminding that on the section Krościenko – Uherce on rail line number 108 between Krościenka and Stróż emergency works took place in the last few days at an urgent pace. A safety inspection of the track was conducted to the best possible in the conditions provided. A commission/inquiry will determine the specifics of the incident.

* they have since been rescued.
Pictures are available on the site linked above.

PKP PLK was very resistant to reopening the line, until 3 days ago. A very botched politically motivated plan.

Edit has been made at moderator request to include translation - this has been done manually and may contain errors, should not be a substitute for actually visiting the website.