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Russia invades Ukraine

Bletchleyite

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Don’t get me wrong I’m aware of what Putin is capable of, but it’s easy to preoccupy oneself with worst case scenarios which isn’t healthy.

Might just be me, but it's never helped my mental health to hide from unpleasant truths. "It'll be fine" when it won't is one of the most annoying things in the world for me; I prefer to know how bad things can be and think how to prepare.
 
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najaB

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Might just be me, but it's never helped my mental health to hide from unpleasant truths. "It'll be fine" when it won't is one of the most annoying things in the world for me; I prefer to know how bad things can be and think how to prepare.
Equally, some people obsess over the worst case. Just look back at the first few pages of this thread where more than one poster said that they weren't able to sleep because of constant worry.
 

Bletchleyite

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Equally, some people obsess over the worst case. Just look back at the first few pages of this thread where more than one poster said that they weren't able to sleep because of constant worry.

Yes, true. It's not affecting my sleep at all, FWIW, nor really causing me that much stress.

I'd probably agree that anyone who does find this is causing them to lose sleep is best just not reading the thread or the news at the moment. The thread is of little value if it's purely talking about positive outcomes, that isn't a real discussion, though I suppose we could have a parallel thread purely for positive developments.
 

DustyBin

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Might just be me, but it's never helped my mental health to hide from unpleasant truths. "It'll be fine" when it won't is one of the most annoying things in the world for me; I prefer to know how bad things can be and think how to prepare.

Try and see it as an unpleasant but highly unlikely possibility. I agree that “it’ll be fine” when it clearly won’t is annoying, but on this occasion it most probably will be fine. Regardless, you do what works for you, I just don’t like to see people becoming overly anxious.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

Yes, true. It's not affecting my sleep at all, FWIW, nor really causing me that much stress.

Fair enough that’s all I was worried about.
 

DynamicSpirit

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If you're speaking specifically of the UK then it would make very little difference. We extract the majority of the oil that we use from the North Sea and the vast majority of our imports come from Norway and the USA. I believe that Russian oil imports were something like 3% of our total usage.

That would suggest that it shouldn't take that much saving to get our Russian imports down to zero. Beyond that... what's our infrastructure like for exporting to Europe? Presumably any excess we generate through savings could, if exported, be used to help reduce the rest of Europe's need to import from Russia.

I do agree that it's disappointing that the UK Government is doing so little to promote energy saving in response to the war (quite aside from the usual climate change issues).
 

TheEdge

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I agree it's unlikely, but I can definitely see a scenario play out in which they stage some form of false flag NBC attack as 'proof' that they were right to go in and 'save' the people of Ukraine.

False flag artillery strikes or shootings are easy, and no doubt there have been a few in this war. But trying to drop a nuke as a false flag, on a state, which is in a club of only 2*, to have publically disposed of its nuclear arsenal, is going to be very hard to pull off. Its also worth noting nuclear material leaves fingerprints in their isotopes and daughter elements and its possible to effectively reverse engineer where the material came from.

*The other country is South Africa.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

If you're speaking specifically of the UK then it would make very little difference. We extract the majority of the oil that we use from the North Sea and the vast majority of our imports come from Norway and the USA. I believe that Russian oil imports were something like 3% of our total usage.

Any information if there is enough capacity across the North Sea fields to make a dent in Europe's use of Russian gas and oil?
 

DynamicSpirit

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And seeing the latest Russian atrocity... a missile strike on a railway station that they must have known was being used to evacuate refugees - so hard to interpret it as anything other than a deliberate attempt to target civilian refugees fleeing from the war. Utterly awful... for the sake of humanity, we really need to find a way to remove Putin's regime from power.

But stepping aside from the emotion and the horror... what on Earth is the point of Russia attacking a place like that? They must surely realise that the main military impact is going to be to make Ukrainians even more determined to defend their country and the population of the West even more determined to supply weapons to defend Ukraine, and on the diplomatic front, possibly make some countries that are wavering in terms of their position on the war more inclined to oppose Russia. What on Earth, in strategic terms, could possibly be going through the minds of whoever authorised those attacks?
 

najaB

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False flag artillery strikes or shootings are easy, and no doubt there have been a few in this war. But trying to drop a nuke as a false flag, on a state, which is in a club of only 2*, to have publically disposed of its nuclear arsenal, is going to be very hard to pull off. Its also worth noting nuclear material leaves fingerprints in their isotopes and daughter elements and its possible to effectively reverse engineer where the material came from.
Which is why I noted NBC - in this scenario it's more likely that it would either be a dirty bomb, or a chemical attack.
Any information if there is enough capacity across the North Sea fields to make a dent in Europe's use of Russian gas and oil?
Not at the moment, no. Our days of being a large-scale exporter are over unless there's significant investment in new fields.
 

TheEdge

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Which is why I noted NBC - in this scenario it's more likely that it would either be a dirty bomb, or a chemical attack.

Even then, it's hard for a county with a nuclear weapons programme, a track record of using chemical weapons and long history of bioweapon development to claim a country with none of those conducted an attack.
 

tommy2215

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And seeing the latest Russian atrocity... a missile strike on a railway station that they must have known was being used to evacuate refugees - so hard to interpret it as anything other than a deliberate attempt to target civilian refugees fleeing from the war. Utterly awful... for the sake of humanity, we really need to find a way to remove Putin's regime from power.

But stepping aside from the emotion and the horror... what on Earth is the point of Russia attacking a place like that? They must surely realise that the main military impact is going to be to make Ukrainians even more determined to defend their country and the population of the West even more determined to supply weapons to defend Ukraine, and on the diplomatic front, possibly make some countries that are wavering in terms of their position on the war more inclined to oppose Russia. What on Earth, in strategic terms, could possibly be going through the minds of whoever authorised those attacks?
Its punishment for Ukraine resisting Putin.
Even then, it's hard for a county with a nuclear weapons programme, a track record of using chemical weapons and long history of bioweapon development to claim a country with none of those conducted an attack.
Tbh Russia has already made plenty of claims that are utterly ridiculous and contradict reality so I wouldn't say no chance of it at all.
 

najaB

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Even then, it's hard for a county with a nuclear weapons programme, a track record of using chemical weapons and long history of bioweapon development to claim a country with none of those conducted an attack.
You might recall that a few weeks ago Russia was trying to spread the idea that there was active bioweapons research being conducted in Ukraine. The right-wing media in the USA latched onto those claims surprisingly strongly.

The American rightwing media’s trumpeting of a conspiracy theory about Ukrainian biological facilities that masked a clandestine bioweapons programme has now rocketed from a fringe QAnon channel directly to Fox News and Donald Trump Jr.

The Russian propaganda machine is so engaged in sowing disinformation about their invasion of Ukraine that they are even ordering Russian TV to broadcast one of the bioweapon theory’s largest boosters: Tucker Carlson.

 

Bletchleyite

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You might recall that a few weeks ago Russia was trying to spread the idea that there was active bioweapons research being conducted in Ukraine. The right-wing media in the USA latched onto those claims surprisingly strongly.

It wouldn't totally surprise me if there was. Ukraine is not some sort of angel, and also does have a bit of a problem with right-wing youths as can be found in many parts of Europe. But even if there *was*, it does not justify flattening the country and killing civilians, particularly as it's basically certain there is in Russia, too.
 

Shrop

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Which other countries in "The West" have you been monitoring the roads in to see if they're quieter?

Picking Germany as an example, and Tom Tom's traffic congestion report as a data source, it would appear that German cities were, on average, about 3% less congested in 2021 than in 2019. Which strongly suggests people are driving less.
Not quite sure of your point here. If driving was less in Germany in 2021 than in 2019, then what does this have to do with Ukraine? My question is, of all those people, let's say in Western Europe and the USA, who are outraged at the invasion, how many would be prepared to significantly compromise their lifestyles to help to prevent the need for oil and gas purchases from Russia?
I'm not questioning whether or not it would make much difference, I'm saying if we thought it really would help, would we actually be prepared to make significant sacrifices ourselves?
I ask this as much as anything because we know NATO doesn't want to risk WW3, we also know that existing sanctions are having very limited effect since the atrocities are continuing, and because it gets a bit frustrating just hearing rhetoric all the time.
 

najaB

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Not quite sure of your point here. If driving was less in Germany in 2021 than in 2019, then what does this have to do with Ukraine? My question is, of all those people, let's say in Western Europe and the USA, who are outraged at the invasion, how many would be prepared to significantly compromise their lifestyles to help to prevent the need for oil and gas purchases from Russia?
You asked what the West is doing to reduce our dependence on Russian oil. Surely you would agree that driving less means that we need less oil?
 

DustyBin

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And seeing the latest Russian atrocity... a missile strike on a railway station that they must have known was being used to evacuate refugees - so hard to interpret it as anything other than a deliberate attempt to target civilian refugees fleeing from the war. Utterly awful... for the sake of humanity, we really need to find a way to remove Putin's regime from power.

But stepping aside from the emotion and the horror... what on Earth is the point of Russia attacking a place like that? They must surely realise that the main military impact is going to be to make Ukrainians even more determined to defend their country and the population of the West even more determined to supply weapons to defend Ukraine, and on the diplomatic front, possibly make some countries that are wavering in terms of their position on the war more inclined to oppose Russia. What on Earth, in strategic terms, could possibly be going through the minds of whoever authorised those attacks?

I think it’s possible that (very poor) decisions are being made locally by Russian officers on the ground. That’s not to defend the high command incidentally, but I do think it’s a possibility. We’ve seen Russian soldiers mutiny and we know there’s a severe lack of discipline among the ranks so nothing would surprise me. Appalling regardless of who gave the order.
 

tommy2215

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I think it’s possible that (very poor) decisions are being made locally by Russian officers on the ground. That’s not to defend the high command incidentally, but I do think it’s a possibility. We’ve seen Russian soldiers mutiny and we know there’s a severe lack of discipline among the ranks so nothing would surprise me. Appalling regardless of who gave the order.
I doubt its some rogue officers. These sorts of actions are standard Russian tactics, as it was Soviet as well.
 

68000

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I think it’s possible that (very poor) decisions are being made locally by Russian officers on the ground. That’s not to defend the high command incidentally, but I do think it’s a possibility. We’ve seen Russian soldiers mutiny and we know there’s a severe lack of discipline among the ranks so nothing would surprise me. Appalling regardless of who gave the order.
Except recent history demonstrates Russia has form for this kind of attack so it comes from the top
 

Falcon1200

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I do agree that it's disappointing that the UK Government is doing so little to promote energy saving in response to the war (quite aside from the usual climate change issues).

But as already mentioned, only a tiny fraction of our energy supplies comes from Russia, which is not true of certain other countries. And besides, everyone agrees that people should drive less, as long as that only applies to other people, not them :s
 

bspahh

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But as already mentioned, only a tiny fraction of our energy supplies comes from Russia, which is not true of certain other countries. And besides, everyone agrees that people should drive less, as long as that only applies to other people, not them :s
However, our energy supplies are extracted by companies which can sell them to certain other countries, for a better price. If they don't do that, then the management can be sued by their shareholders.
 

Shrop

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You asked what the West is doing to reduce our dependence on Russian oil. Surely you would agree that driving less means that we need less oil?
Yes, that is exactly what I'm saying, my question was whether people would actually be prepared to drive less. I already know that the UK is a lot dependent on Russian energy than Germany and some others, but would you be prepared to drive significantly less if you thought it would help to cut finance to Russia? For us in the UK, if only a single figure percentage of our energy is from Russia, then we would only need a small cut to stop depending on them completely. What I don't understand is why we have to wait until the end of the year to make this cut?
 

najaB

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I already know that the UK is a lot dependent on Russian energy than Germany and some others, but would you be prepared to drive significantly less if you thought it would help to cut finance to Russia?
It would be impossible for me to drive any less.
 

najaB

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I expect a lot of people on this forum can't drive any less because they don't drive at all.
Exactly this. I also work from home, and when I do go into the office I walk. In addition, I've only taken a trip by air for pleasure purposes once in the last three years.
 

Noddy

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Yes, that is exactly what I'm saying, my question was whether people would actually be prepared to drive less. I already know that the UK is a lot dependent on Russian energy than Germany and some others, but would you be prepared to drive significantly less if you thought it would help to cut finance to Russia? For us in the UK, if only a single figure percentage of our energy is from Russia, then we would only need a small cut to stop depending on them completely. What I don't understand is why we have to wait until the end of the year to make this cut?

You seem to be very focussed on driving. Like @najaB I do a lot of miles (especially work related-about 7000 so far this year and that’s with a couple of weeks off for covid) and couldn’t cut very much out. However, personally I would be prepared to cut my home energy bill down by turning down my thermostat, and trying to cut out wasted electricity (although I’m with Ecotricity so I doubt much of my electric comes via Russian energy).
 

Cowley

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Let’s leave the driving stuff there…

I know it’s kind of related where it comes to oil prices etc but I can see this drifting off in a direction that isn’t relevant to the situation in Ukraine if we don’t say something now. ;)

If anyone wants to start a thread on that (we might even have one already) then I’d be happy to move some posts into it.

I thank you.
 

DustyBin

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I doubt its some rogue officers. These sorts of actions are standard Russian tactics, as it was Soviet as well.

Except recent history demonstrates Russia has form for this kind of attack so it comes from the top

It appears you’re both correct as Russia announced that it had carried out precision strike(s) on railway stations, then removed the statement when details emerged of civilian casualties. Surely though they knew the station was full of civilians (but they do have form as you say)……
 

brad465

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I'm guessing Russian forces have been pushed back/withdrawn from the area enough that world leaders and other senior diplomats/figures can get there. Ursula von der Leyen visited yesterday as well, and I expect there maybe others to follow.
 

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