Rolling Stock Cascades

[Haydn1971]

Lots coming up over the next 5 years, in particular with Thameslink and Crossrail and beyond with the 125/225 replacement - has anyone on here attempted to predictively track this graphically or at very least maintain a easy to follow document format ?

Mainly interested in the effect on the Leeds to Sheffield services in particular in the next five years, but also a best guess at beyond - thinking Sprinters and Pacers made up to four car, perhaps even larger with due to stock transfer from Caldrvale and potentially TPE once they are electrified, impact on a future Crossrail with 125/225 cascades with MML electrification.

Thoughts ?

 

[northwichcat]

At the moment there aren't really many confirmed cascades specifying a number of units and dates. SWT getting 456s and 458s are about the only ones that are.

There are no plans to electrify Calder Vale before the end of 2019.

Nothing's planned for Leeds-Sheffield at the moment.

 

[D365]

225s won't be replaced for a while yet, the initial IEP order only covers the replacement of HSTs on ECML and GWML. The 91 locomotives are having a few improvements, including the double pantograph that has been trialled on 91114. Let's wait for the Thameslink/Crossrail NXEMUs to start rolling off the production line before decisions are made on where the displaced MUs are cascaded

But anyway, I reckon that from Thameslink, the 86 319s will go to GW if they don't buy brand-new EMUs - the 116+100 Southern-led order may come in handy, as these will be 110mph out-of-the-box. A number will almost certainly go north. 23+3 377s will return to Southern, 12 317/1s (with the 9 317/7s) and 13 321/4s (and 7 LM?) will either go to GA or north.

Thameslink is supposed to take over 4tph WGC inners, so the 313s will either stay for Hertford Loop/Moorgate or move to Wales, with the 19 Coastways joining them somewhere at some point. The 315s remaining on GA after Crossrail takes over Shenfield Metro could be replaced by the aforementioned 317s/321s, so that a mish-mash of 4-car 315s and/or 3-car 313s moves to Wales, which can be replaced in the future. 165s on GW will move further west to replace other DMUs, subject to clearance - they are wider to take advantage of the former Broad Gauge lines. A bunch of Sprinters will come up north, probably.

The 5 HC 360s will almost certainly move to GA as 4-cars to join the 21 already there, but I would like to see the combined fleet merged into (with gangways) the South-West 450s or Midland 350 fleets in order to standardise. With all the 315s gone, these would be replaced by the aforementioned 317s and 321s on GA. For further consolidation, I would move the Doncaster 321/9s and 322s down as well and replace with similar 319s.

Pretty much all of the above is my own fantasy and not official. Little has been confirmed yet, but there are ongoing life-extension projects for Classes 317, 321, 322. Hopefully this will extend to (excuse the pun) 319s and 313s/315s too. Keep your eyes peeled for more

 

[northwichcat]

For further consolidation, I would move the Doncaster 321/9s and 322s down as well and replace with similar 319s.

The 3 x 321/9s remain Metro Train owned even though the 144s and 155s were sold on condition they remained on West Yorks services until the end of the current franchise.

I'm sure Metro will be happy to see the 321/9s replaced but by something newer and better, not by a slightly older type of train like the 319s.

Also the 158s, 321s, 323s and 333s have had CCTV fitted at the expense of the local PTEs. The local PTEs paid for this on condition that the units will remain in the respective areas long term, except in the case of the 323s where the agreement was that if they are replaced the replacements will already have CCTV fitted before they arrive in the area.

 

[anthony263]

I have heard it suggested that some of the class 313's that are currently with Southern could make their way to Wales to be used on routes where the platforms are too short for a 4 carriage class 315 particulary the Coryton - Cardiff - Radyr service.

I think the maximum number of units required for the Cardiff Valleys should be around 20 as each unit is 3 or 4 carriages long and so wont need to run in pair's.

As for the other services which use the SWML perhaps if they order new emu's for the local services around Reading & the Thames Valley perhaps a small allocation of class 319's could be casaded to work the Maesteg - Cardiff ( with trains continuing to Ebbw Vale) & the Swansea - Cardiff swanline service which could be extended to Bristol & Bath I think each service would require at least 4 units each to run an hourly frequency or maybe even a service every 30 minutes.

ATW could have a good number of class 150's available once the Cardiff Valleys are wired so a number of these could go to Northern or even to East Anglia along with some staying for services operating in West Wales as well as the Conwy valley service.

FGW could be getting a number of class 165's to take over the local services around Bristol displacing a lot of the class 150's to go elsewhere although what the future will be for the class 158's that are with FGW I don't know.

A good number of the FGW class 158's would be good for ATW and East Midlands trains especially when the Cambrian goes to an hourly frequency.

 

[northwichcat]

ATW could have a good number of class 150's available once the Cardiff Valleys are wired so a number of these could go to Northern or even to East Anglia along with some staying for services operating in West Wales as well as the Conwy valley service.

Presumably Bidston-Wrexham as well unless you're very hopeful of that line being electrified. Chester-Crewe also gets 150s - alongside 153s, 158s and 175s!

 

[anthony263]

Presumably Bidston-Wrexham as well unless you're very hopeful of that line being electrified. Chester-Crewe also gets 150s - alongside 153s, 158s and 175s!

Forgot about those too be honest.

Yes I am one of those who would like to see the Wrexham - Bidston line wired and operated by Merseyrail as a through service to Liverpool.

Speaking about my earlier post concerning the rolling stock for the Cardiff Valley lines I have been thinking about whether the
class 315's are really suitable since 3 carriage emu's would be more than suitable especially since some lines could really do with more than 4 carriages during the peaks such as on the Rhymney - Cardiff line where platforms have already been extended to accomodate 6 carriage trains.

Maybe London Midland should get new units for the crosscity line and displace the class 323's to South wales as there are more than enough to operate the Cardiff Valley lines including the Maesteg & Ebbw Vale lines.

 

[tbtc]

At the moment we don't know very much - hopefully as the CP5 details become known (like what order will lines be wired in) we'll be able to make more educated guesses - at the moment people are getting into a lot of detail about certain electrification cascades whilst some others are ignored - e.g. nobody seems to have considered what will happen on the Chase/ Nuneaton/ Marston Vale/ Leeds - Selby lines.

What we also don't know is how CP6 is going to follow on - will the cascades have one eye on the future too?

I think the maximum number of units required for the Cardiff Valleys should be around 20 as each unit is 3 or 4 carriages long and so wont need to run in pair's

The off peak diagrams through Queen Street require thirty three trains (assuming no doubling up, no maintenance spares, no peak extras...).

But CP5 will also see Ebbw Vale/ Maesteg/ Swanline wired, so that's going to mean almost fifty 75mph EMUs required for local services in south Wales.

 

[anthony263]

At the moment we don't know very much - hopefully as the CP5 details become known (like what order will lines be wired in) we'll be able to make more educated guesses - at the moment people are getting into a lot of detail about certain electrification cascades whilst some others are ignored - e.g. nobody seems to have considered what will happen on the Chase/ Nuneaton/ Marston Vale/ Leeds - Selby lines.

What we also don't know is how CP6 is going to follow on - will the cascades have one eye on the future too?



The off peak diagrams through Queen Street require thirty three trains (assuming no doubling up, no maintenance spares, no peak extras...).

But CP5 will also see Ebbw Vale/ Maesteg/ Swanline wired, so that's going to mean almost fifty 75mph EMUs required for local services in south Wales.

Yes you are correct seems I messed up my calculations