Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party.

[nw1]

Depends on how popular/effective she has been as a constituency MP.

Past form suggests that people who switch parties tend not to do well in elections if they switch to a party other than the "natural" one for their seat, or become independent, even if they were good MPs (Dominic Grieve?)

We saw that in 2019 (unfortunately in my view) when all the ex-Tories who switched to Lib Dem or became independent failed to hold their seat.

I'm not an expert on Central Scotland but I'm vaguely aware of East Kilbride, and doesn't sound like natural Tory territory, so a Tory hold seems unlikely.

This comment from Sunak makes you laugh (from https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-67087840):

"Lisa is right that we should aim to do politics better, with more empathy and less division and a dedication to always doing what we think is right," he said.

More empathy and less division? He really is taking us for fools, isn't he?

 

[Gloster]

It does me give a slight feeling of rats joining the sinking ship.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Her seat is a relatively safe SNP, with Tories and Labour neck and neck in 2nd and 3rd. Not entirely sure who would win it in a by-election or General election, as incumbent she could give the Tories a boost, but their national polling will weigh against that.

Yes, it's the kind of seat that I'd expect Labour to stand a good chance of picking up, but the Tories to have no chance at all in the current climate. It does seem an odd decision to swap from SNP to the party that the SNP sees more than any other as its arch-enemy - especially when that decision means she's very likely to lose her seat at the next election. From her claims about a toxic culture in the Westminster SNP group, I wonder if personal relationships played a part in this, as much as political beliefs.

In other news that will be less welcome for the Tories, former Telegraph editor Max Hastings has declared he'll vote Labour at the next election, as has (maybe less surprisingly) former Tory then Change-UK MP Anna Soubry.

The former editor of Daily Telegraph Max Hastings has said he will be voting for Labour as he attacked the “dreadful” Rishi Sunak government and described the prime minister as a “loser”.

In the latest sign senior Conservative backers are giving up on Mr Sunak’s party and switching focus to a likely Labour government, Mr Hastings said he would back Sir Keir’s Starmer’s party.

The influential Mail columnist revealed his utter dismay with the Tory push to the right – calling the Tory membership a bunch of “Flat Earthers” who are “almost without exception fantasists”.

Anna Soubry, the former Conservative business minister, has announced she will be voting for Labour at the next general election.

The former MP, now a criminal barrister, said on social media that she will be voting for Keir Starmer. On Wednesday, she wrote on X, formerly Twitter: “I will be voting #Labour.

“With @Keir_Starmer as leader they have the values and competence to deliver the change our country desperately needs.”

Soubry also posted a cutting of a newspaper article on Starmer’s speech on Tuesday at the Labour party conference in Liverpool.

 

[nlogax]

In other news that is less welcome for the Tories, former Telegraph editor Max Hastings has declared he'll vote Labour at the next election, as has (maybe less surprisingly) former Tory then Change-UK MP Anna Soubry.

Soubry's decision was predictable. Hastings' decision.. less so. Good for him, good for Starmer and co.

 

[WatcherZero]

To paraphase SNP's campaign slogan 'Vote SNP get Tories!'

LOL

 

[brad465]

It does me give a slight feeling of rats joining the sinking ship.

Or leaving one sinking ship, only to join another.

 

[Busaholic]

Soubry's decision was predictable. Hastings' decision.. less so. Good for him, good for Starmer and co.

It's taken him a long time, given his total antipathy towards Boris Johnson based on his personal experience of having been his boss and seeing his devious, lying and lazy ways at first hand for years. However, better late than never.

 

[Snow1964]

Independent says Sunak now down to 20% of who will make best PrimeMinister since conference, but Starmer not doing much better, just 34% think he would be best PM

Rishi Sunak’s popularity has crashed to a record low since the Conservative Party conference, a damning new poll shows.

Just one in five voters now believe Mr Sunak would make the best prime minister, down from a quarter before the Tory get-together, according to the new YouGov poll.

And, in a blow to the Tories’ electoral hopes, it means the figure has reached the lowest point since Mr Sunak entered Downing Street last year.

Sir Keir Starmer’s popularity has also fallen, with 32 per cent of the public saying he would make the best prime minister, compared with 34 per cent earlier this month.

The survey, conducted for The Times, showed a significant uptick in the number of “not sure” voters, with 43 per cent of the population undecided between the two party leaders.

Rishi Sunak’s popularity hits record low after Tory party conference

Just one in five voters believe Mr Sunak would make the best prime minister, down from a quarter before the Tory conference

www.independent.co.uk

 

[ainsworth74]

Independent says Sunak now down to 20% of who will make best PrimeMinister since conference, but Starmer not doing much better, just 34% think he would be best PM

Out of curiosity when was the last time we had a PM who had a majority of people saying that they would make the best PM?

 

[JamesT]

Out of curiosity when was the last time we had a PM who had a majority of people saying that they would make the best PM?

Looking at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leade..._for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election I can see Boris Johnson in June 2021 with 51% approval (+6% net).

 

[najaB]

Looking at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leade..._for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election I can see Boris Johnson in June 2021 with 51% approval (+6% net).

That's so far out of family as compared to other polls around the same time that it has to be discarded. Two other polls covering the same period had him at 38% and 41% approval.

If you go back further (March 2020) he was consistently getting around 50-60% but that was a 'war bounce' due to the early days of the pandemic (little did we know!)

 

[nw1]

Looking at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leade..._for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election I can see Boris Johnson in June 2021 with 51% approval (+6% net).

51% of us approved of Boris in June 2021?

Presumably before Partygate broke (I have to confess, I've forgotten the exact timeline)? Hadn't the Hancock affair broken by then, though?

(Sorry, just seen @najaB's post)

 

[Lost property]

Or leaving one sinking ship, only to join another.

Ah, that would those rats in the current Gov't who have already jumped into their new careers on, say GB "News2 or Talk Talk then...their new spiritual homes really...already foundering.

 

[JamesT]

That's so far out of family as compared to other polls around the same time that it has to be discarded. Two other polls covering the same period had him at 38% and 41% approval.

If you go back further (March 2020) he was consistently getting around 50-60% but that was a 'war bounce' due to the early days of the pandemic (little did we know!)

Yes, Boris’s numbers do jump around a bit, there are polls with net positive and net negative in the same week.

Regardless of the cause, he was very popular at the time. Interestingly he didn’t poll so well before being elected https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leade..._for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election

If you go one back, Theresa May had consistently good ratings before the 2017 election https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leade..._for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election

But the main point is that we have had prime ministers recently who have had majority approval.

 

[david1212]

I think they have just lost the plot now. Do people really care about all this anti woke nonsense when people are struggling to buy food or pay their rent? Or the slightly better off spend half their life waiting for trains that never turn up?

Add see personal private pensions and savings in real terms devaluing. OK part is a worldwide issue not just England / UK but the short lived PM and Chancellor of the Exchequer of just over 12 months ago caused significant damage. On top of this is fixing the tax threshold instead of nominally linking it to inflation.

Covered in many other threads but for rail they seen to both not care and be out of ideas. Likewise the NHS.

 

[takno]

That's so far out of family as compared to other polls around the same time that it has to be discarded. Two other polls covering the same period had him at 38% and 41% approval.

If you go back further (March 2020) he was consistently getting around 50-60% but that was a 'war bounce' due to the early days of the pandemic (little did we know!)

I don't have any of the numbers to hand, but doesn't starmer at least have slightly higher than 34% net approval? The 34% was for the multi-option question of who would make the best leader.

 

[JamesT]

I don't have any of the numbers to hand, but doesn't starmer at least have slightly higher than 34% net approval? The 34% was for the multi-option question of who would make the best leader.

The last preferred PM on the Wikipedia page dating from May has Starmer on 41% with Sunak on 27%.
The last listed net approval for Starmer was -22% from September. Which is considerably better than Rishi’s -44%, but you would still expect opposition to a generally unpopular government to manage a positive net approval.

 

[bleeder4]

Not surprised about Starmer's popularity, he's just never struck me as being particularly charismatic and I honestly couldn't tell you what he stood for. He seems to be pitching Labour as the party that isn't the Tories, without really saying what their big policies are. He's hanging the whole election on "vote for us because we're not the Tories" which is a bit of a risky strategy I think. He's forever tainted to me anyway. I have a vivid memory of him during the pandemic arguing passionately in the Commons for a fourth lockdown. I think if he had been in power during Covid we would never have come out of lockdown! So that alone makes me avoid his party. For most people, political allegiance is determined by just one issue and, for me, it's his lockdown policy during Covid.

 

[gg1]

For most people, political allegiance is determined by just one issue and, for me, it's his lockdown policy during Covid.

I'd say the exact opposite and for most people it's based on a range of issues, at least at a general election.

 

[takno]

Not surprised about Starmer's popularity, he's just never struck me as being particularly charismatic and I honestly couldn't tell you what he stood for. He seems to be pitching Labour as the party that isn't the Tories, without really saying what their big policies are. He's hanging the whole election on "vote for us because we're not the Tories" which is a bit of a risky strategy I think. He's forever tainted to me anyway. I have a vivid memory of him during the pandemic arguing passionately in the Commons for a fourth lockdown. I think if he had been in power during Covid we would never have come out of lockdown! So that alone makes me avoid his party. For most people, political allegiance is determined by just one issue and, for me, it's his lockdown policy during Covid.

I'm not really convinced that's true on any counts. As awful as the lockdown restrictions were, it's extremely unlikely that either party will be faced with similar issues in the next 5 years, and even more unlikely that UK governments or the wider international community would be would accept lockdowns even if we did. People definitely vote on more than one issue, and it's unlikely that lockdowns will be foremost in peoples minds. Even if people are looking back to 2020, the Tories were squarely responsible for more long-term damage to lives and the economy from hard Brexit in the same period, and that's ongoing in a more apparent way.

In terms of how Starmer would have reacted if he'd actually been in government, I don't think the Tories actually did anything more more positive in that respect - we actually pretty long lockdowns compared to some other countries. It was Sunak who introduced and failed to time-limit the overly-generous furlough scheme, and hard-man Hancock who decided that his best bet was to ignore all the evidence of lockdown harms rather than make a balanced decision.

I'm angry about the whole situation, and angry that it was only really extreme right-wing parties across Europe who found themselves able to take a sane approach to the situation. However, in terms of mainstream parties who are likely to win elections anywhere in Europe, I'm not sure you could get a fag paper between the Covid approaches of virtually any of them.

 

[brad465]

The first edition of RAIL to go to press since Sunak's HS2 cancellation has been released and it absolutely scathes him and his decisions. In particular it takes quotes from Sunak and Harper made in support of HS2 as recent as April/June, and compares them to what was said about the scrapping decision.*

*Put this here as the HS2 decision thread is locked and its not relevant to Speculative Discussion.

 

[317 forever]

Have it in May 2024 as that's traditional election time and it puts us back on the right cycle rather than having arguments about winter elections.

I don't think Rishi will do that of course. I've pencilled October 2024 into my mental diary but he should do it in May 24.

I'm taking it as a near foregone conclusion that it will be October 24. I don't just mean October 2024 but October 24th.

While the power to choose May still stands, it would look bizarre for them to go to the trouble of revoking the Fixed Term Parliament Act, only to call the General Election on the same date as would have occurred under the FTPA.

 

[nw1]

I'm taking it as a near foregone conclusion that it will be October 24. I don't just mean October 2024 but October 24th.

While the power to choose May still stands, it would look bizarre for them to go to the trouble of revoking the Fixed Term Parliament Act, only to call the General Election on the same date as would have occurred under the FTPA.

Why the 24th, specifically?

After the conference season but still on BST (and hence more daylight for campaigning), I would guess?

 

[317 forever]

Why the 24th, specifically?

After the conference season but still on BST (and hence more daylight for campaigning), I would guess?

Yes, I have heard that date touted for being the Thursday before the clocks go back.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Why the 24th, specifically?

After the conference season but still on BST (and hence more daylight for campaigning), I would guess?

Presumably conferences would be dropped if that was the selected date although still reckon Sunak will run it down to the wire to maximise chance of recovery but guess has to balance off people being peeved with their Xmas preparations being interfered with and January blues so late Autumn has to be most likely.

 

[The Ham]

The first edition of RAIL to go to press since Sunak's HS2 cancellation has been released and it absolutely scathes him and his decisions. In particular it takes quotes from Sunak and Harper made in support of HS2 as recent as April/June, and compares them to what was said about the scrapping decision.*

*Put this here as the HS2 decision thread is locked and its not relevant to Speculative Discussion.

Whilst there's been some support for scraping of HS2 in the press, this has been mostly from the usual suspects.

Conversely, there's been a lot of business comments been unhappy with the scraping of HS2 - including a serious investment company also highlighting that the decision to push back to 2035 from 2030 the ban on sales of new petrol/diesel cars will make the UK less attractive for investment due to all the changing of plans.

 

[AM9]

Whilst there's been some support for scraping of HS2 in the press, this has been mostly from the usual suspects.

Conversely, there's been a lot of business comments been unhappy with the scraping of HS2 - including a serious investment company also highlighting that the decision to push back to 2035 from 2030 the ban on sales of new petrol/diesel cars will make the UK less attractive for investment due to all the changing of plans.

The fact that these recent 'U' turns by the Conservatives has been entirely for political and preparing for their forthcoming electoral judgement, has not been lost on their erstwhile business supporters.

 

[nw1]

The fact that these recent 'U' turns by the Conservatives has been entirely for political and preparing for their forthcoming electoral judgement, has not been lost on their erstwhile subusiness pporters.

Precisely why the election should occur as soon as possible (i.e the spring).

They are doing absolutely nothing of any genuine use: they are a has-been government desperately trying to cling on to power, and the longer they cling on to power, the longer this country will not be governed properly.

They're unlikely to do it but I'm really hoping for a May election.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

It's possible Rishi will wait to see what the May local election results look like. Although since I'd expect them to be disastrous for the Tories I can't see that inspiring him to call a prompt election

 

[Gloster]

It's possible Rishi will wait to see what the May local election results look like. Although since I'd expect them to be disastrous for the Tories I can't see that inspiring him to call a prompt election

I am afraid that my fear is that they will wait to see how the local elections go, realise that they are going to be thrashed in the general election and set up about using the rest of their mandate for purely selfish actions. That would involve making things as difficult as possible for Labour by such things as questionable long-term contracts, appointing suitably Conservative-friendly people to as many posts as possible and messing with our international relationships. At the same time they will be filling the boots of themselves and cronies by similar means.

You may well say that this has never happened before, but we are now in an era of totally unprincipled politicians unlike anything in the past. They have got the power and they are going to use it…to their own personal advantage.