Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party.

[nw1]

The point of a manifesto is to get the party into government.
It doesn’t mean they will carry it out……

If only David Cameron had taken that advice in 2015...

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 6 Oct 2023 ==

I want a government that implements policies that I agree with, not one that wears a particular colour of Rosette...

It has to be said that certain parties are more likely to do that than others, IMO.

In the UK it is highly unlikely that I will ever vote for anyone with a blue rosette, no matter what they say - unless there is some kind of truly radical realignment of politics and the Tories become the liberal left-leaning party!

 

[GS250]

That's exactly why Labour will win.

The most sensible thing to do right now, and what they are doing, is top keep their mouths shut while the Conservative continue to dig their own graves.

Labour needn't say a thing till election campaigning starts and manifestos get published.

I suppose it worked for Biden?

Expand on that?

Contradicts the observation that most university towns are more Labour than non-university towns of similar size.

To be honest, I find the whole judging people's apparent intelligence on who they vote for tedious and unhelpful. This all started after the brexit vote and just adds fuel to the fire.

If anyone is that convinced that the answer to all of their or society's problems is to vote for someone else...then they will probably end up disappointed.

 

[Butts]

Surely is this is a popular law that has majority support, there would be no objection to this?

Other than the fact it smacks of virtue signalling ?

Rates of smoking amongst the targeted youngsters have already dropped to almost marginal levels with the existing measures.

I'd be far more concerned about the levels of vaping - can't believe they haven't slapped a tax on them yet to make up for the declining excise duty from tobacco.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 6 Oct 2023 ==

Indeed.

Also, I suspect that given there's many way around it, the ban on sales of cigarettes based on age isn't likely to actually impact all that many people.

Plenty of people manage to buy things which aren't all that readily available. Yes there's an added cost (for example travel costs,. shipping costs, etc.) however for those who wish to do it they will afford that costs.

For those for whom it is now a significant barrier to easy access (for example older kids buying cigarettes and selling them at £1 a go when they've paid far less than £40 for a pack of 40 to those under age in the school playground isn't likely to happen as widely, given those under age can't just wait, say, 10 months until they can buy them legally) there's a good chance there'll not bother with the effort of starting.

Whilst there's likely to be more restrictions brought in as time passes, it's going to be something which impacts on a smaller and smaller number of people, so fewer people will be overly bothered by those changes.

Having said that, it does appear the story of thing which isn't necessarily that helpful in reducing the numbers smoking (in that a lot fewer people do it then before - and as a percentage of the population is reduced further) so why go to the effort of making significant changes.

Bring in rules limiting the number of places you could buy or marginally increase the age to 18 or 21 (over time) could bring about a lot of the benefits without being so controversial.

Spoken like a true non-smoker - where can you buy cigarettes in a pack of 40 ? - 2 twenties perhaps

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 6 Oct 2023 ==

Not sure since we left the EU but I think that many are brought in by regular travellers with Eastern Europe and are within their personal allowance, so no need to smuggle. Probably most don't smoke themselves...

Indeed, prior to that you could import as many cigarettes' as you liked provided you'd paid the applicable rate of duty in the country of purchase, they were for personal consumption and transported in person.

Non-Smokers may be beguiled as to why anyone would have done this.

However cigarettes in many normal shops in Europe are cheaper than they are in Duty Free at UK Airports.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 6 Oct 2023 ==

It must be easier than ever to smuggle cigarettes into the country.

I remember growing up in north London and most corner shops sold dodgy fags under the counter.

For personal consumption you can buy say 400B&H Gold on BA for £82 which equates to £4.10 a packet - in Tesco's they are nearly £16 packet. - quite a price differential.

From my experience there is rarely any visible Customs presence at Heathrow or Edinburgh Airports that I normally use in the course of my travels.

If you arrive back into Edinburgh and there is no customs presence no one answers the Red Phone when you wish to declare the 1000 Cigarettes you may have imported.

Strikes me they don't take small time aberrations seriously.

 

[JamesT]

If only David Cameron had taken that advice in 2015...

I would suggest that although there's nothing stopping a government tearing up its manifesto once it's got in, the example of the Lib Dems and tuition fees would have been fresh in the mind of Cameron when deciding what to go ahead with.

 

[jfollows]

On 8 March 2017 Philip Hammond announced increases in National Insurance rates for self-employed people in his budget, and on 15 March this increase was cancelled because it broke a 2015 manifesto "promise". So I think governments do take their manifestos seriously, or at least more seriously than their other announcements and not-really-guaranteed-promises. Mind you, the 2019 manifesto didn't promise to build HS2, only to consider the findings of the Oakervee review.

 

[edwin_m]

I would suggest that although there's nothing stopping a government tearing up its manifesto once it's got in, the example of the Lib Dems and tuition fees would have been fresh in the mind of Cameron when deciding what to go ahead with.

A coalition is a bit different, as some of the policies of the parties involved are likely to be contradictory so it's not possible for both to be implemented. However the LibDems should have explained this more clearly, and should have been more challenging of Tory actions that weren't in the agreement instead of looking so happy that they'd got into government.

More pertinent is how a government elected on a promise of Levelling Up pivoted to unfunded tax cuts for the rich based on the votes of a few tens of thousands, then to [insert current Tory policy at time of reading] based on the votes of a few hundred.

 

[Thirteen]

Sunak was on This Morning and it seems the smoking age increase will be alongside changes for vaping.

 

[Herefordian]

People with a modicum of intelligence will vote Labour.

Those with more than a modicum of intelligence might not

Questioning the intelligence of voters is not helpful or constructive.

But go on then, I'll ask. Who are those with "more than a modicum of intelligence" going to vote for?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 6 Oct 2023 ==

Sickened to the stomach of him now attacking trans people, it's a total non issue to the vast, vast majority yet he picks on a tiny group within the whole population for his sordid dog whistle politics.

Who will be next on his hit list??

It's very worrying, to be honest.

Unfortunately, Sunak's reluctance to dismiss her means she'll probably remain in post until the next election.

That time can't come soon enough. She is completely unfit for office.

 

[nw1]

It's very worrying, to be honest.

Unfortunately, Sunak's reluctance to dismiss her means she'll probably remain in post until the next election.

That time can't come soon enough. She is completely unfit for office.

Completely agree. As I've said above, there really isn't much clear water between Braverman and people like Le Pen or Meloni. One wonders (and this is just idle speculation, to make that clear) whether she knows something about Sunak that might not sit well with voters, and is being kept in post otherwise she might get her own back in some way?

I just can't see any sane reason for keeping someone with such extreme hardline views in the post of home secretary. There are 350-ish other Tory MPs, many of whom would do a less-bad job.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 6 Oct 2023 ==

For personal consumption you can buy say 400B&H Gold on BA for £82 which equates to £4.10 a packet - in Tesco's they are nearly £16 packet. - quite a price differential.

From my experience there is rarely any visible Customs presence at Heathrow or Edinburgh Airports that I normally use in the course of my travels.

If you arrive back into Edinburgh and there is no customs presence no one answers the Red Phone when you wish to declare the 1000 Cigarettes you may have imported.

Strikes me they don't take small time aberrations seriously.

It does raise questions about the general ethics of customs tax, and not just with cigarettes, I want to make that clear, but any goods.

You buy goods (laptop, phone, whatever) overseas on holiday, for whatever reason - perhaps prices are lower, perhaps you have to do so because your computer or phone breaks. You pay VAT on them in the original country - fair enough. Then you bring them back home, and you have to pay (UK) tax again ! Thankfully I've never had to declare anything but I can completely understand if people were resentful about paying tax twice.

I am not a supporter of tax dodging but to me, customs tax for holidaymakers does seem to be a little unreasonable as you've already paid tax on the product(s) once.

And of course, the extension of customs tax to the EU is yet another way in which the B-word is putting dents into people's finances which weren't there before. (Roaming charges is far worse though because that effects far more people - in fact I deliberately boycotted them this summer while overseas by refusing to use mobile internet while in the EU!)

 

[SuspectUsual]

I just can't see any sane reason for keeping someone with such extreme hardline views in the post of home secretary

Because there are a lot of conservative supporters and funders who share her views, and Sunak knows he has to keep them onside

 

[jon0844]

You buy goods (laptop, phone, whatever) overseas on holiday, for whatever reason - perhaps prices are lower, perhaps you have to do so because your computer or phone breaks. You pay VAT on them in the original country - fair enough. Then you bring them back home, and you have to pay (UK) tax again ! Thankfully I've never had to declare anything but I can completely understand if people were resentful about paying tax twice.

You can get the tax back when you leave a country. It can be a bit of a faff, but it is possible (not that I've done it in decades).

 

[nw1]

You can get the tax back when you leave a country. It can be a bit of a faff, but it is possible (not that I've done it in decades).

Never knew that. However, morally I would argue that the tax you pay should be to the country from which you bought it.
One argument for tourism is that it benefits the local economy: so if tourists buy products in their host country, then they should presumably pay the tax on products in that host country.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 6 Oct 2023 ==

Because there are a lot of conservative supporters and funders who share her views, and Sunak knows he has to keep them onside

Except they are losing the middle ground by doing that. There are, almost certainly, a vast swathe of people who would vote Conservative with someone like Cameron, who are completely turned off by the hard-right rhetoric of people like Braverman.

The only people Braverman will appeal to are people who are going to vote Tory anyway. If Sunak dropped Braverman, I doubt the Tories would lose any significant number of votes, but if he dropped Braverman and more generally dropped the populist-right rhetoric, they might gain significant numbers (though not as many as might be expected, as to make such a change this close to the election would be a sign of indecisiveness).

 

[jfollows]

Some countries deliberately make tax refunds easy, eg Japan, where you don't even pay the tax up front but have it deducted at purchase time, the purchases are given to you in a "sealed" bag with instructions not to open until you leave the country, and you need to show your passport at purchase time.
The UK used to have a VAT refund scheme which was quite well used, but I recall was scrapped as part of Brexit and would now cost >£1bn a year if reintroduced. I used it occasionally when I was a US resident on purchases made during UK trips.

EDIT The VAT Retail Export Scheme was withdrawn in the UK except for Northern Ireland at the end of 2020 (https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...t-scheme-and-the-tax-free-shopping-concession).

 

[jon0844]

Never knew that. However, morally I would argue that the tax you pay should be to the country from which you bought it.
One argument for tourism is that it benefits the local economy: so if tourists buy products in their host country, then they should presumably pay the tax on products in that host country.

The tax is only refunded on a product you remove from the country, so tourists still pay tax on all the food/drink and other things that are consumed there, or are so small as to be not worth claiming the tax back (say bringing back some souvenirs or a chocolate bar).

It is presumably to help the retail sector, and Harrods was big on tax free to sell things to rich visitors. That's still good for the local economy.

 

[edwin_m]

The only people Braverman will appeal to are people who are going to vote Tory anyway. If Sunak dropped Braverman, I doubt the Tories would lose any significant number of votes, but if he dropped Braverman and more generally dropped the populist-right rhetoric, they might gain significant numbers (though not as many as might be expected, as to make such a change this close to the election would be a sign of indecisiveness).

Some of them might be minded to vote Reform UK. The Tories seem fixated on the challenge from the right, to the extent they are ignoring the likely much larger number of centrists who are put off by their antics. This may be an example of "filter bubble", unlike Starmer who is reported to spend time getting the views of non-supporters.

 

[jon0844]

Tim Martin recently got interviewed and said he'd very possibly vote for Kier. It has been suggested that he knows Brexit is a disaster but can't admit it, so by supporting Labour who may take a more pragmatic view of our relationship with the EU, he can save face.

I recall in 1997 that a lot of business leaders showed support for Blair, and I'm sure if Labour can woo big business then the Tories will struggle even more - especially if their donations dry up.

 

[jfollows]

I recall in 1997 that a lot of business leaders showed support for Blair, and I'm sure if Labour can woo big business then the Tories will struggle even more - especially if their donations dry up.

I would have thought that a dogmatic pursuit of a "hard Brexit" and countless failures to implement its changes will have infuriated businesses across the board, leading to many small businesses going out of business because of the impossibility of continuing to trade in the new environment. Like many voters, they'll be saying "anything must be better than this shambles". The next election is going to be an "anything but the Conservatives election" in England and "anything but the SNP" in Scotland. And businesses are going to be working on ways of living with a Labour government now because they can read the tea-leaves as well as the rest of us can.

 

[Falcon1200]

Time will tell overall how many vote for them but for some rather than with a clear conscience it will be because they consider them to be the least worst option from those likely to have enough presence to have any influence.

Which is a factor in where my vote goes, however up here in Scotland we have the added complication of the independence question; Therefore my vote is most likely to go to the party deemed best placed to defeat the SNP. In my constituency that has varied over the years between Tory and Labour (I voted for the latter when Jim Murphy became my MP). So, yes, I might vote Tory, in the hope that they beat the SNP but do not somehow cling on to power!

 

[takno]

Which is a factor in where my vote goes, however up here in Scotland we have the added complication of the independence question; Therefore my vote is most likely to go to the party deemed best placed to defeat the SNP. In my constituency that has varied over the years between Tory and Labour (I voted for the latter when Jim Murphy became my MP). So, yes, I might vote Tory, in the hope that they beat the SNP but do not somehow cling on to power!

Worth watching the polls closer to the time. The result in Rutherglen suggests that any three way marginals are likely to swing Labour more than conservative, although a year is a long time in Scottish politics

 

[Noddy]

Some of them might be minded to vote Reform UK. The Tories seem fixated on the challenge from the right, to the extent they are ignoring the likely much larger number of centrists who are put off by their antics. This may be an example of "filter bubble", unlike Starmer who is reported to spend time getting the views of non-supporters.

Agreed. The tories are heading straight into a GB News echo chamber. The Truss voting members are loving it, but whether on the right or left you never win elections when talking to no one but yourself. If they don’t try to move back to the middle ground they are in really big trouble.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Agreed. The tories are heading straight into a GB News echo chamber. The Truss voting members are loving it, but whether on the right or left you never win elections when talking to no one but yourself. If they don’t try to move back to the middle ground they are in really big trouble.

There a lost cause now but its not healthy that Labour get in by default either to a degree thats what happened in 2019 with Corbyn being unelectable.

 

[brad465]

If Sunak wants to win the election, he needs a better PR team who doesn't put him on a private jet while outlining policy that includes public transport matters (and also tells him to take the lid off his pen):

https://twitter.com/RishiSunak/status/1710352494054826336

This week I took long-term decisions to build a brighter future and change our country.

This change will:
Transform our towns
Boost our transport
Improve our education
Reduce cancer deaths
Here’s how

 

[jfollows]

Survation predicts a "landslide Labour election victory" reported in The Observer (https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-with-12-cabinet-ministers-losing-their-seats).
No surprise there. But it won't hinder the Labour party conference.
As I've thought before, it's 1997 all over again. Nobody in their right mind is going to vote Conservative at the next election - that doesn't mean that lots of people won't vote Conservative, just that there aren't enough of them remaining who will to make a difference.

The ObserverLabour

Poll predicts landslide Labour election victory with 12 cabinet ministers losing their seats​

Dramatic findings point to Conservatives losing every red wall seat that they secured at the last election

Michael Savage Policy Editor
Sat 7 Oct 2023 12.04 BST

Labour is currently on course to win a landslide victory on the scale of 1997, according to dramatic new modelling that points to the Conservatives losing every red wall seat secured at the last election.
The Tories could also lose more than 20 constituencies in its southern blue wall strongholds and achieve a record-low number of seats, according to a constituency-by-constituency model seen by the Observer. Deputy prime minister Oliver Dowden, defence secretary Grant Shapps and leadership contender Penny Mordaunt are among those facing defeat. Some 12 cabinet ministers face being unseated unless Rishi Sunak can close Labour’s poll lead.

According to the model’s central projection, which takes into account the new boundaries that the next election will be fought on, Labour would win 420 seats – equating to a landslide 190-seat majority. The Tories would take just 149 seats and the Lib Dems 23. The results mirror the 1997 landslide, when Tony Blair’s party secured a majority of 179 with 418 seats. The new analysis also suggests that the cost of living and the state of the NHS continue to be the clear priorities for voters.
The huge study, commissioned by the 38 Degrees campaign group, has been carried out by the Survation polling company using a mega poll made up of more than 11,000 voters. A modelling technique called multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) has then been applied to reach constituency-level findings. Pollsters using the method successfully detected the swings ahead of the 2017 election.
While a 190-seat Labour majority is its average estimate, the modelling – based on polling carried out shortly before the Tory conference last week – suggests Labour could have between 402 and 437 seats. The Tories could have between 132 and 169 seats. The results suggest a Labour majority between 154 and 224 seats.
Every one of the 44 red wall seats that the Tories won at the last election would return to the Labour party, the analysis found. A further 22 so-called blue wall seats – defined as those held by the Tories in 2019, have a majority of Remain voters and a higher than average number of graduates – are also lost by the Conservatives.
The findings will be controversial among both parties’ members. Many Labour insiders are expecting the polls to close over the coming months as the election approaches. Senior figures in Sunak’s team also believe they can target Labour leader Keir Starmer, whom they don’t believe has been embraced by the public.

Despite Sunak’s attempts to switch focus to his plans to ban smoking, overhaul A-levels and ditch the northern leg of HS2, the analysis suggests that voters remain overwhelmingly focused on the cost of living and the state of the NHS.
In every single constituency, these two issues were most important to voters. Across the country, a third said they are “getting by, but making cutbacks” and 8% described themselves as “financially desperate”. More than two fifths (42%) said they had struggled to get a GP appointment in the past six months.
In a major blow for Sunak, Labour has some significant leads in red wall seats. In Blyth Valley, the first red wall seat to be declared for the Tories in 2019, large Labour majorities are predicted. In Blyth and Ashington, Labour are ahead 49% to 22%. In Hartlepool, whose predecessor seat was won by the Conservatives for the first time in a 2021 byelection, Labour have a 38-point lead. In both constituencies, a quarter of voters said they were “worried about their financial future”.
Bassetlaw, whose predecessor seat saw the country’s largest swing from Labour to the Tories in 2019, is predicted to return to Labour. The model suggests a 23-point lead with 12% of residents reporting they are “financially desperate”. Meanwhile, North Dorset – whose predecessor seat last elected a non-Conservative MP in 1945 – is predicted to fall to the Liberal Democrats. At 64% the NHS was a top issue for the highest proportion of this constituency.

Matthew McGregor, chief executive of 38 Degrees, said the findings suggested voters were “crying out for change” and warned Labour against being overly cautious. “With the spotlight this week on the Labour party’s conference pledges, it’s clear what voters will be looking for: real guarantees of action to help those most in need and bring the dual cost of living and NHS crises under control for all of us,” he said. “If they can’t deliver that, there’s no promise these polling results will hold.
“These are the issues which will dominate at the next election. Parties who are unconvincing, out of touch or distracted on these issues will rightly suffer at the polls.”
The results make it even less likely that Sunak and his team will opt for a spring election. Figures close to the PM are said to be opposed to a May vote, despite many MPs believing it may be in the party’s interests to go for an earlier vote. Meanwhile many figures in the Labour party accept that a lack of clarity over Starmer’s vision for power remains a vulnerability.
Damian Lyons Lowe, chief executive of Survation, said: “Red wall seats, which were crucial to the Conservative’s Brexit coalition, are all predicted to return to Labour. Furthermore, it is in seats with the highest proportion of Leave voters that the swing back to Labour is largest. Even traditional Conservative strongholds in the south-east and south-west are under threat from the Liberal Democrats and Labour.”
Survation polled 11,793 people between 11-25 September

P.S. The poll was taken before 26 September so before the Conservative party conference and all that that revealed.

 

[Gloster]

That leaves the question as to who will remain. Will the remaining rump be either centre-right or represent a wide range of traditional views, or will it be made up of the barking right-wingers who will believe that the way back to electoral success is to be even more extreme? (Remember, they would probably get back in eventually.)

A related thought is who is getting the nominations for safe seats (if any are) that the sitting MPs are not contesting at the next election. Are constituency parties returning to older values and choosing candidates who are nearer the centre of the party or have they moved over to the extreme right and are choosing candidates in their image?

 

[317 forever]

Again, this seems to be a differing opinion to what most think, including, according to the Guardian article above, even Tory MPs.

Given they are so unpopular how on earth are they going to end up with a working majority? I'm finding it hard to understand the rationale of this - a couple of people on here have now said the same thing. Worst case for a non-Tory is a hung parliament with Labour the largest party, surely.

It will certainly be very disturbing for the future of UK democracy if they win again. If they win now, with a weak leader and way behind in the polls, it seems likely they'll win again and again for the foreseeable future. And we end up with a defacto one-party state which is really frightening. Particularly as a 2024 Tory win will legitimise the hard-right rhetoric coming out of the party, we'll drift even further to the right, there will be further marginalisation of liberals, and most of the rest of the Western world (assuming Trump doesn't win) will see the UK as a complete joke.

As a result, I do think there will be mass unrest if the Tories win again next year, on a scale not seen in recent times.

If there is such a feeling of mass unrest - which to be fair there may well be - that will encourage sufficient tactical voting and rare voting by usual abstainers in favour of promising candidates for change. This in itself will prevent another Tory victory.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 7 Oct 2023 ==

I've heard Coutinho talked of as the 'outside' candidate in the next Leadership election, in the same way as Badenoch was last time (or was it time before), presumably on the grounds that, like you, few have heard of her so has no black maks against her name. I knew she had been given a cabinet post, I think she had previously held ministerial posts in the Treasury. I wouldn't recognise her.

I just wish all parties would try and stabilise teams so some sort of expertise is built up and so ministers wouldn't be caught out by the simplest of questions when interviewed.

Regarding the taxing of meat I assume she is basing it on the fact that they haven't said they wouldn't. There was something else they were going to tax the other day - no evidence. Why bother, enough of the media will lap it up.

Some of those Tories who Johnson kicked out prior to the 2019 election must now realise that it was a silver cloud as they don't have to defend this sort of nonsense.

If anything, I think Claire Coutinho will be the next but one Tory leader and go on to win a General Election after 2 Labour terms. She would be promoted under an imminent unelectable leader, then be better experienced at speaking on wider departmental matters than she is now. This would qualify her for leader after a Badenoch/Braverman defeat in 2028-29.

 

[nw1]

If anything, I think Claire Coutinho will be the next but one Tory leader and go on to win a General Election after 2 Labour terms. She would be promoted under an imminent unelectable leader, then be better experienced at speaking on wider departmental matters than she is now. This would qualify her for leader after a Badenoch/Braverman defeat in 2028-29.

I hope not, as the meat tax comment doesn't make her look good. And the laughing it off as some kind of joke is even worse.

I hope the next Tory PM is either one of the moderates who did best under Cameron/May, or some future MP who hasn't yet entered parliament.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 7 Oct 2023 ==

That leaves the question as to who will remain. Will the remaining rump be either centre-right or represent a wide range of traditional views, or will it be made up of the barking right-wingers who will believe that the way back to electoral success is to be even more extreme? (Remember, they would probably get back in eventually.)

A related thought is who is getting the nominations for safe seats (if any are) that the sitting MPs are not contesting at the next election. Are constituency parties returning to older values and choosing candidates who are nearer the centre of the party or have they moved over to the extreme right and are choosing candidates in their image?

One test might be: from what wing of the party is the new Uxbridge MP, and likewise the candidates for Mid Beds and Tamworth?

 

[ainsworth74]

I hope the next Tory PM is either one of the moderates who did best under Cameron/May, or some future MP who hasn't yet entered parliament.

You can hope all you want but I see absolutely no evidence that the Tory Membership are softening and being less right wing.

 

[ChrisC]

You can hope all you want but I see absolutely no evidence that the Tory Membership are softening and being less right wing.

Sadly, I think you are probably right.
However, I don’t get the impression that’s the view of many older Tory voters who have voted Conservative all their lives and are now disillusioned and find themselves in a position where it’s very difficult to know who to vote for or even if to vote at all.

Traditional centre right voters, of the type that in the past held the views of one nation conservative politicians such as Ken Clarke, feel totally alienated by the current Conservatives. Most of these people were also very strongly against Brexit. These are people who are Conservatives at heart, but many for the first time in their lives, even if somewhat begrudgingly, could vote for Labour.

 

[ainsworth74]

Sadly, I think you are probably right.
However, I don’t get the impression that’s the view of many older Tory voters who have voted Conservative all their lives and are now disillusioned and find themselves in a position where it’s very difficult to know who to vote for or even if to vote at all.

Traditional centre right voters, of the type that in the past held the views of one nation conservative politicians such as Ken Clark, feel totally alienated by the current Conservatives. Most of these people were also very strongly against Brexit. These are people who are Conservatives at heart, but many for the first time in their lives, even if somewhat begrudgingly, could vote for Labour.

I don't disagree with what you so but Tory voters (13.9m in 2019, though presumably less next time) are not the same thing as Tory Members (approx 172,000 people) and it is the members who will pick the next leader.

 

[ChrisC]

I don't disagree with what you so but Tory voters (13.9m in 2019, though presumably less next time) are not the same thing as Tory Members (approx 172,000 people) and it is the members who will pick the next leader.

That’s what I meant. The Tory Membership are out of touch with many traditional older Tory voters. I know that they got 13.9m votes at the last election but that was in many ways a result of many traditional Labour voters in the Red Wall Constituencies voting for Boris and Brexit. I’m in my mid 60’s, and at the last election for the first time ever, I didn’t vote Conservative because I didn’t want Boris and Brexit. I will not vote Conservative at the next election either with people like Braverman and the odious Rees Mogg still around.