Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party.

[Gloster]

Everything Braverman says or does nowadays is intended to further and promote her main priority: defeating Badenoch at the next Conservative leadership election. As far as the good of the country is concerned: stuff that, it is her ambition that matters.

 

[Busaholic]

Everything Braverman says or does nowadays is intended to further and promote her main priority: defeating Badenoch at the next Conservative leadership election. As far as the good of the country is concerned: stuff that, it is her ambition that matters.

It'll only matter to the country if the Tories get a sniff of power again, which I fervently hope and believe won't happen again within my lifetime.

 

[nw1]

It really is time for Sunak to give Braverman an instant dismissal.

It is unacceptable for someone who appears to have a fanatical dislike towards much of the population to remain in post as Home Secretary.

She's cut from the same mould as people like Le Pen, Meloni and Orban. In my opinion, she is really not very far from being labelled "far right". She has to go, and go now. It's time people stop being so accepting of the sort of language she comes out with.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 3 Oct 2023 ==

Everything Braverman says or does nowadays is intended to further and promote her main priority: defeating Badenoch at the next Conservative leadership election. As far as the good of the country is concerned: stuff that, it is her ambition that matters.

Of course, if it really is Braverman vs 87027, it shows the Tories have completely lost touch with reality. Both strident right-wing reactionaries; neither deserve to be anywhere near power.

 

[21C101]

It really is time for Sunak to give Braverman an instant dismissal.

It is unacceptable for someone who appears to have a fanatical dislike towards much of the population to remain in post as Home Secretary.

She's cut from the same mould as people like Le Pen, Meloni and Orban. In my opinion, she is really not very far from being labelled "far right". She has to go, and go now. It's time people stop being so accepting of the sort of language she comes out with.

If he did it would please several million people who would never vote for him ever and drive more Tory core voters towards sitting on their hands at the next election.

 

[nw1]

If he did it would please several million people who would never vote for him ever and drive more Tory core voters towards sitting on their hands at the next election.

Really? Or do many Tory voters just want a return to the days of someone like Cameron?

This sort of nonsense will turn a lot of ex-Tories in the Home Counties off them, perhaps enough to lose them a fair few seats.

 

[Yew]

And this is utterly bonkers, given Sunak is a money man and was chancellor:

And he says halving inflation - one of his five priorities - is the "best tax cut I can deliver. The numbers are improving and we've just got to see it through and deliver it and it will make a big difference to everyone's wallets," he tells our political editor Chris Mason.

A tax cut gives people more money than they had before.

Halving inflation means you have the same amount of money and the stuff you want to buy is only increasing in price half as quickly as it was before

Does anybody believe the utter garbage these people come out with?

I think the intent was more "I'm better off focusing my efforts at combating inflation than cutting taxes", which to be fair is probably accurate.

 

[21C101]

It'll only matter to the country if the Tories get a sniff of power again, which I fervently hope and believe won't happen again within my lifetime.

Thats what people were saying in 1991.

Starmer has to win almost as many seats as Blair did in 1997 to get a majority of one. Unlike Blair he has the charisma of a damp rag.

Mid term opinion polls are used by the electorate to kick the government. Only as the election approaches will they pay attention to the opposition and decide whether to hold onto Nurse for fear of something worse.

There is huge annoyance at the conservatives among their voters, but a good slew of this is because of their failure to bring down immigration levels and deal with "culture war matters" ie for not being Conservative enough. When they see that Starmer offers the same with knobs on they won't warm to it.

Expect a result somewhere between a small Tory majority propped up by the DUP and labour leading an unstable coalition including Greens, SNP and Libdems that will be lucky to last 18 months.

 

[nw1]

BBC quoting Philip Davies (Tory MP for Shipley) as wanting the northern bit of HS2 scrapped and that "the original purpose of the project was to act as a high speed rail link between Heathrow Airport and Leeds and Manchester". Who knew?

No, the original purpose of HS2 was to provide a high-speed link between Shipley and a new underground terminal in Westminster.

 

[21C101]

Really? Or do many Tory voters just want a return to the days of someone like Cameron?

This sort of nonsense will turn a lot of ex-Tories in the Home Counties off them, perhaps enough to lose them a fair few seats.

Doubt it will lose them many seats in "libdem sympathetic" areas as their majorities are so large.

It might well save a few in places like Durham though

 

[nw1]

Thats what people were saying in 1991.

Starmer has to win almost as many seats as Blair did in 1997 to get a majority of one. Unlike Blair he has the charisma of a damp rag.

Mid term opinion polls are used by the electorate to kick the government. Only as the election approaches will they pay attention to the opposition and decide whether to hold onto Nurse for fear of something worse.

There is huge annoyance at the conservatives among their voters, but a good slew of this is because of their failure to bring down immigration levels and deal with "culture war matters" ie for not being Conservative enough. When they see that Starmer offers the same with knobs on they won't warm to it.

Expect a result somewhere between a small Tory majority propped up by the DUP and labour leading an unstable coalition including Greens, SNP and Libdems that will be lucky to last 18 months.

It's not mid-term now, it's late term; the next election is around a year away at most. We are basically starting the run-up to the next election now.

The Tories recovered after Major got in and Labour did not have a big lead in 1991, in fact the Tories were often ahead: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_..._election#/media/File:1992_election_polls.png

There is no John Major figure waiting to rescue them this time.

The Tories have to appeal to the middle to win any election. They are patently not, thus even though Starmer is no great personality, the Tories will not win. They are turning off the middle; we have a clear choice between hard-right and middle-of-the-road-and-a-little-bland. In such a situation, the latter will surely win.

Do you really honestly think there will be a small Tory majority? I haven't heard a single commentator suggest such a thing.

 

[Yew]

The Tories have declared war on Woke Science as well.

What next, an amphibious assault on Woking?

 

[21C101]

It's not mid-term now, it's late term; the next election is around a year away at most. We are basically starting the run-up to the next election now.

The Tories recovered after Major got in and Labour did not have a big lead in 1991, in fact the Tories were often ahead: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_..._election#/media/File:1992_election_polls.png

There is no John Major figure waiting to rescue them this time.

The Tories have to appeal to the middle to win any election. They are patently not, thus even though Starmer is no great personality, the Tories will not win. They are turning off the middle; we have a clear choice between hard-right and middle-of-the-road-and-a-little-bland. In such a situation, the latter will surely win.

Do you really honestly think there will be a small Tory majority? I haven't heard a single commentator suggest such a thing.

We will see. Next election is still a year and a quarter away unless he chooses to go early

 

[nw1]

Doubt it will lose them many seats in "libdem sympathetic" areas as their majorities are so large.

Such as the 2,743 majority in Esher? The 3,337 majority in Guildford? Or the 985 majority in Winchester?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 3 Oct 2023 ==

We will see. Next election is still a year and a quarter away unless he chooses to go early

Won't happen. No-one wants a midwinter election. Will occur either in spring or autumn.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 3 Oct 2023 ==

What next, an amphibious assault on Woking?

Probably, because even though they've traditionally voted Tory, it's now probably the sort of place filled with the "woke liberal elite", or something.

 

[brad465]

Thats what people were saying in 1991.

Starmer has to win almost as many seats as Blair did in 1997 to get a majority of one. Unlike Blair he has the charisma of a damp rag.

I know not everyone thinks this, but after the last 8 years, someone boring will be a relief.

 

[21C101]

Such as the 2,743 majority in Esher? The 3,337 majority in Guildford? Or the 985 majority in Winchester?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 3 Oct 2023 ==


Won't happen. No-one wants a midwinter election. Will occur either in spring or autumn.

They will lose a good few seats, noting that under the new boundaries they have a nominal majority of about 100, however Labour will have to win 124 seats just to get a majority of 1 (nominal 134 if you take the new boundaries into account).

For every libdem leaning Tory voter put off by Sue Ellen, there are three whos main gripe is that it is all words not action.

And if Labour have to goven in coalition or supply and demand with Libdems, SNP snd Greens to get bills through it will be popcorn time for the tories with snother election within two years.

 

[Thirteen]

It's not mid-term now, it's late term; the next election is around a year away at most. We are basically starting the run-up to the next election now.

The Tories recovered after Major got in and Labour did not have a big lead in 1991, in fact the Tories were often ahead: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_..._election#/media/File:1992_election_polls.png

There is no John Major figure waiting to rescue them this time.

The Tories have to appeal to the middle to win any election. They are patently not, thus even though Starmer is no great personality, the Tories will not win. They are turning off the middle; we have a clear choice between hard-right and middle-of-the-road-and-a-little-bland. In such a situation, the latter will surely win.

Do you really honestly think there will be a small Tory majority? I haven't heard a single commentator suggest such a thing.

In a way, we'll likely see a repeat for the Tories of what happened in Australia where the Liberals were defeated in many places because the voting public were sick of them and wanted change.

London will be interesting for the Mayoral election but the more I see of Susan Hall, the more incompetence she comes across which will likely help Sadiq Khan win a third term. Honestly, had the Tories selected Paul Scully, they would have a much better chance of winning.

 

[nlogax]

Starmer has to win almost as many seats as Blair did in 1997 to get a majority of one. Unlike Blair he has the charisma of a damp rag.

I'm pretty certain a majority of voters will opt for boring and lacking charisma over this embarrassingly incompetent and goulish clown school.

 

[brad465]

I'm pretty certain a majority of voters will opt for boring and lacking charisma over this embarrassingly incompetent and goulish clown school.

Also now I think of it Sunak isn't very inspiring/charismatic either. Starmer is very boring compared to Johnson, but the difference is not as stark with Sunak, which will help Starmer.

 

[21C101]

I'm pretty certain a majority of voters will opt for boring and lacking charisma over this embarrassingly incompetent and goulish clown school.

Im pretty sure Labour will pile up votes in places they already have a seat but struggle elsewhere to win on the scale they need to. Sure they will win a slew of seats but 124 is a hell of an ask, especially as about 30 of them are held by the SNP.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 3 Oct 2023 ==

In a way, we'll likely see a repeat for the Tories of what happened in Australia where the Liberals were defeated in many places because the voting public were sick of them and wanted change.

London will be interesting for the Mayoral election but the more I see of Susan Hall, the more incompetence she comes across which will likely help Sadiq Khan win a third term. Honestly, had the Tories selected Paul Scully, they would have a much better chance of winning.

The london vote will depend on whether Bromley and associated areas virtually block vote for the Tories, as they did for Johnson. ULEZ feeling and camera destruction us strongest in that part of the world.

 

[sor]

It's not mid-term now, it's late term; the next election is around a year away at most. We are basically starting the run-up to the next election now.

The Tories recovered after Major got in and Labour did not have a big lead in 1991, in fact the Tories were often ahead: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_..._election#/media/File:1992_election_polls.png

There is no John Major figure waiting to rescue them this time.

The Tories have to appeal to the middle to win any election. They are patently not, thus even though Starmer is no great personality, the Tories will not win. They are turning off the middle; we have a clear choice between hard-right and middle-of-the-road-and-a-little-bland. In such a situation, the latter will surely win.

Do you really honestly think there will be a small Tory majority? I haven't heard a single commentator suggest such a thing.

and to an extent we've already had the post 92 timeline. we had the major financial crisis, we had the major health scare (though this time it wasn't just the UK), now we're in that mid 90s period where everyone's just waiting for the inevitable. It doesn't matter what the tories say or do because the expectation is that they'll be out of power shortly. Just without quite as much fawning over Starmer as Blair got.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

I'm pretty certain a majority of voters will opt for boring and lacking charisma over this embarrassingly incompetent and goulish clown school.

Trouble his form of boring conceals what behind this facade of saying nothing.

We need a whole new democracy in this country that better represents the populous now and its not first past the post.

 

[AM9]

Trouble his form of boring conceals what behind this facade of saying nothing.

We need a whole new democracy in this country that better represents the populous now and its not first past the post.

We've needed that for the last 30 years (or more)!

 

[nlogax]

Trouble his form of boring conceals what behind this facade of saying nothing.

We need a whole new democracy in this country that better represents the populous now and its not first past the post.

Longer term we absolutely need to revisit our electoral system. Meanwhile I'll take that chance with Starmer and co in the short term over the absolute headbangers that make up the Conservative party.

 

[jfollows]

The Guardian's catch-up daily email (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/04/first-edition-conservative-conference-hs2-manchester):

How Sunak’s dithering is going down

In a word: badly. In a word cloud of 2,000 people polled by Savanta, “useless”, “rubbish” and “incompetent” are the top three words, followed by quite a few words beginning with C, including “corrupt”, “crap” and “confused”.

Andy Street, the Conservative mayor of the West Midlands, said Sunak was in danger of “cancelling the future”. “This has become a debate about Britain’s ability to do the tough stuff successfully, as previous generations of Britons certainly did,” he said outside the Midland Hotel, where Sunak is staying. “And of course now it’s become a debate about Britain’s credibility as a place to invest.”

Despite being 16 points behind Labour in the polls, Peter says, Tory MPs publicly talk about “a narrow landing slip” that could deliver them victory. “But in private if you ask them about the chances of winning the election, they laugh and change the subject.

“There’s this weird sense of resignation, as if they all know they’re going to lose the election, and no one is that bothered”.

Essentially it's going to be a bit of a joke to cancel the part of HS2 supposed to reach Manchester in front of their terrible conference slogan Long-term decisions for a brighter future. They seem to want to forget that they've been the long-term decision makers since 2010, and this cancellation is going to kill any remaining vestige of credibility about "levelling up". Even though HS2 wasn't about "levelling up" since all it did is enabled people who live in the hinterland get to London quicker.
Suella Braverman is full of bile and Liz Truss is bonkers are the other things that people will probably remember about this fiasco of their own making.

 

[Blindtraveler]

I think we might see a slow motion rerun of 2017 where they are left with a working majority of single figures and are therefore reliant on anyone who might prop them up, the labor gains will be in places like Wales and Scotland where the party does seem to have got itself slightly better organized but they'll be an awful lot of areas that when to conservative in the last couple of elections that stayed at way and this is where labor are going to lose out as they need some of these seats back and quite a few of those areas are not being offered anything new or even vaguely interesting by stammer and co

 

[nw1]

I think we might see a slow motion rerun of 2017 where they are left with a working majority of single figures and are therefore reliant on anyone who might prop them up, the labor gains will be in places like Wales and Scotland where the party does seem to have got itself slightly better organized but they'll be an awful lot of areas that when to conservative in the last couple of elections that stayed at way and this is where labor are going to lose out as they need some of these seats back and quite a few of those areas are not being offered anything new or even vaguely interesting by stammer and co

Again, this seems to be a differing opinion to what most think, including, according to the Guardian article above, even Tory MPs.

Given they are so unpopular how on earth are they going to end up with a working majority? I'm finding it hard to understand the rationale of this - a couple of people on here have now said the same thing. Worst case for a non-Tory is a hung parliament with Labour the largest party, surely.

It will certainly be very disturbing for the future of UK democracy if they win again. If they win now, with a weak leader and way behind in the polls, it seems likely they'll win again and again for the foreseeable future. And we end up with a defacto one-party state which is really frightening. Particularly as a 2024 Tory win will legitimise the hard-right rhetoric coming out of the party, we'll drift even further to the right, there will be further marginalisation of liberals, and most of the rest of the Western world (assuming Trump doesn't win) will see the UK as a complete joke.

As a result, I do think there will be mass unrest if the Tories win again next year, on a scale not seen in recent times.

 

[dgl]

Thing is that whilst Starmer might be a relative unknown most people will simply want something other than the tories, there may be vociferous opposition to things like ULEZ but how many people actually care, a few people making a lot of noise is still a few people, plus I bet a good few will like the supposed improvements to air quality and for those who it could affect probably have a compliant vehicle anyway.

Interestingly when the world is burning, cities have dangerous levels of pollution and sewage is being pumped into rivers people care about it, and they will want a government that appears to care, not one who's plans seems to be "burn more oil"!

 

[AlterEgo]

Amazing clown show of a conference. What a total mess.

They already talk like they are in opposition.

 

[Parjon]

It will certainly be very disturbing for the future of UK democracy if they win again. If they win now, with a weak leader and way behind in the polls, it seems likely they'll win again and again for the foreseeable future. And we end up with a defacto one-party state which is really frightening.

Alternatively, the opposition could offer something worth voting for, and be led by people who aren't more of the same...

Anyway. The Tories might win an election, but it's the Labour party who are in actual office via the civil service. What might that suggest about the prospect of positive change from a Labour win.

 

[najaB]

…there may be vociferous opposition to things like ULEZ but how many people actually care, a few people making a lot of noise is still a few people, plus I bet a good few will like the supposed improvements to air quality and for those who it could affect probably have a compliant vehicle anyway.

Indeed. Being anti-ULEZ means you are pro kids breathing dirty air. It really isn't a winning proposition.