Ridership projections

[Daniel Hampson]

Hi guys,

for my school project I need to show predictions of ridership figures on trains in the UK in the future...perhaps up to 2020

does anyone have any graphs, figures or sources of info for me to help? I have a graph from DfTs White Paper but only up until 2014

Thanks

 

[yorkie]

If the DfT's white paper only goes up to 2014 then you may not get anything beyond that.

The DfT, of course, do not take into account the recession that is just starting which will lower demand for travel. Although, on the other hand, it might increase rail travel as people might use their cars less (many car drivers refuse to acknowledge any cost other than fuel which they then compare to the cost of a train ticket, of which fuel is a relatively small percentage) and people may also use planes less and take holidays in Britain rather than abroad, so it may not be all bad.

But really, no-one knows what will happen.

 

[Z12XE]

Plus you have the cost of fuel which is likely to go up at even quicker rates which will hopefully reduce unnecessary car use and move people onto rail.

Its getting to a point now where 1 person going by car is equal to the cost of the train ticket

 

[Metroland]

Petrol retailers have disclosed that fuel sales dropped sharply over the past few weeks and the latest figures appear to show that demand for petrol in Britain has slumped by as much as 20 per cent over the past 12 months.

According to the IEA, a part of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, motorists are instead choosing to take public transport as their cars become too expensive to run.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/06/11/npetrol111.xml

What isn't reported is high prices can make the economy more efficient: More walking and exercise (less health care bills), less waste, less congestion, less PT subsidy, less pollution. more green alternatives and more jobs in green sector.

 

[Metroland]

Rising petrol prices have prompted commuters to leave their cars at home and go to work on public transport, Go-Ahead, the bus and rail operator, said yesterday.

The company also reported that it had benefited from a surge in older passengers using their free passes since the Government's free local bus travel scheme for the over-60s was extended nationwide in April.

Go-Ahead's shares surged 15 per cent to £17.61 on the back of the bullish pre-close trading statement, in which it said it was heading for record results in September. Other listed public transport stocks also gained, with Stagecoach and National Express Group up more than 7 per cent and FirstGroup up 6.3 per cent.

“We believe that high petrol prices might encourage people to switch to rail,” Keith Ludeman, chief executive of Go-Ahead, said. “The railway is very different to how it was in the time of the last downturn, in the 1990s, and the primary competing mode of transport, the car, is becoming very expensive. A lot more people are looking at rail as a reliable alternative.”

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article4175657.ece