Return to Education

[The_Train]

I work in education and speak with students and parents on a regular basis.

I concur with the comments of @sjpowermac and @johnnychips above. I can also vouch for their authenticity.

So no facts and figures to back up your assertions? Not going to lie, I'm slightly disappointed with that as you seemed so sure with what you were saying and I'd hoped to find something that could give us all a generalised indication of how people were actually feeling so I didn't have to rely on forums, social media and the mainstream media.

To be quite frank it renders the rest of the discussion pointless as this was all I was looking for but as you've taken the time to respond I will work through it (especially as I've now figured out how to split quote - love how easy that is by the way )

from where? I wouldn't trust anything that doesn't come 'from the horses mouth' on this.

As I said, it is just a feeling I've got based on where I pick up snippets of information, mainly interviews with teachers, parents and schoolkids, but I am well aware that it isn't always factual - hence why I got excited when seeing your certainty in what you were saying. Unfortunately, it appears your certainty was more of a feeling as well

I wonder what forum that is.

Parents who want children to be at school don't tend to go posting this intention on forums.

What forum it is doesn't really matter but it's safe to say that it is not railway related but is similar in that it is littered with people who are clearly educated and are able to reach conclusions based on the information they have available to them. It is also inhabited by people from a vast array of backgrounds and whom have jobs within various sectors.

As for the second point - don't we have an entire thread on here somewhere discussion the 'Return to Education' that is pretty full of people who want children to be at school and who have made that point quite robustly?

People tend to back others who are part of their group; it's part of human nature.

Not sure if you are referring to this here but it's quite interesting you should make a point like this as the big reason I hoped to find some info you held to back up your adamant claims previously was that as someone who is stuck in the middle of this debate (ie doesn't make much difference to me either way), it kind of feels like we basically have a situation where those who are anti-lockdown will side with the 'keep schools open' group and those who are more pro-lockdown will join the other side. I don't know whether Brexit has played a part in this but it feels a lot like people feel they have to be on one side or the other with little scope for middle ground!

On this forum we have a lot of people who are very knowledgeable about a range of matters and have a lot of life experience. Yes there will be occasions when someone who is not knowledgeable posts something incorrect as fact; but when they do, they tend to get corrected.

I've met hundreds of people from this forum and indeed several members have visited me at work; some as trainee teachers (who went on to qualify). Once restrictions are eased I look forward to inviting another forum member who I know is a trainee teacher to visit us.

I'm not really sure what you are getting at here, particularly with the part of my post you were responding to. I am sure there are lots of people with great knowledge across a broad spectrum of matters and who have great life experience - in fact the few I have interacted with regularly show these skills perfectly. Equally, the same can be said of the forum I have referred to and probably to many other forums that grace the interweb!

I worked in the NHS which was a great experience. But working in a school is different to anything else. The sense of teamwork and togetherness is immense. Staff will often go the extra mile in a way that wouldn't happen in most places.

I have not gone round asking all of my colleagues for their views but of those I have spoken to, the vast majority do want schools tp remain open.

I am only aware of a handful of parents who had issues with their kids being in school, and none that I had any direct contact with.

So really your confidence in the post that caught my attention has come from a small census of people that you work with? Not too different to me obtaining a 'feeling' from the various sources of information available to me. Again, I'd hoped for something more concrete!

Don't believe anything media outlets claim about what teachers think! Yes some teachers will think like that, but it isn't representative.

It's not necessarily the media outlet that I believe. It's the teachers, parents and students who they have interviewed who give off the greatest perception of how people are thinking - why shouldn't I believe what they are saying? And of course it's not representative, but then again neither is asking a few colleagues at your own place of work!

I'll find out about this on Monday but I've not heard anything to this effect.

I would just add that you only quoted part of what I'd said with regards to the testing of teachers at school. What I was discussing was confined to a solitary school somewhere in the UK - I have no idea if this is planned for all schools. Just wanted to clear that up as I don't want to become part of the fake news brigade

 

[The Ham]

My son is four and he's full of energy. He would never sit still for more than a few minutes to do work and then distracted his older sister who did want to do the work assigned to her. However, his teachers say he is good as gold at school. Clearly he will learn a lot more at school than we could ever hope to teach him at home.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 3 Jan 2021 ==


Of course teachers that are at risk, or live with someone who is at risk, should not be going in a classroom full of people but what percentage of teachers fall into those categories? The majority of people under 60 have little to fear from Covid. I'm certainly not worried about it.

Based on the number of cases/deaths nationally, out of ~500,000 teachers we'd expert to see about 15,000 deaths as a worst case. Therefore we'd therefore expect about 3% of teachers to need to be off to protect themselves.

However, even that would would be an over estimate as those over 65 make up most of the deaths and there's relatively few teachers who would fall into that category. It also is based on all those who have died within 28 days of a positive test result, and so likely to be over counting the number of deaths, whilst it also only counts confirmed cases. Meaning that we're likely to be excluding asymptomatic cases from that list. Finally we'd be assuming that every teacher catches it.

Therefore it's likely that number of teachers impacted by them being given time away from the classroom for their protection would been to be about 2%.

You could then use those teachers to provide online support to those children who are needing to self isolate and other tasks which they could undertake from home.

 

[Bikeman78]

Based on the number of cases/deaths nationally, out of ~500,000 teachers we'd expert to see about 15,000 deaths as a worst case. Therefore we'd therefore expect about 3% of teachers to need to be off to protect themselves.

However, even that would would be an over estimate as those over 65 make up most of the deaths and there's relatively few teachers who would fall into that category. It also is based on all those who have died within 28 days of a positive test result, and so likely to be over counting the number of deaths, whilst it also only counts confirmed cases. Meaning that we're likely to be excluding asymptomatic cases from that list. Finally we'd be assuming that every teacher catches it.

Therefore it's likely that number of teachers impacted by them being given time away from the classroom for their protection would been to be about 2%.

You could then use those teachers to provide online support to those children who are needing to self isolate and other tasks which they could undertake from home.

Thanks for taking the time to work this out.

 

[sjpowermac]

Once again, lots of people assuming that anyone of importance listens to the teaching unions.

In the 1980s there was intermittent industrial action that was finally settled in 1987 with the Teachers' Pay and Conditions Act which set up a forerunner of the pay review body. In addition, teachers were granted the right to a lunch break (lucky them).

I’m struggling to think of anytime since then when the English teaching unions have enjoyed any success with any campaign that they have run(I understand Scotland is different). Yes, there have been some strike days here and there but they have never changed anything.

If the schools close this time around, I believe it will be because the government believes it is necessary to stem the rise in infections and for no other reason.

For the avoidance of doubt, I’ll be at work tomorrow and I honestly couldn’t care less about any personal risk I may/may not have to the virus.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 3 Jan 2021 ==

Thanks for taking the time to work this out.

Even though it’s completely irrelevant, the government couldn’t care less what the teaching unions/teachers say.

 

[alex397]

It's mostly the vocal few who are concerned, believe me most aren't.

This was just my perspective from my colleagues, friends who are teachers, opinions from a local residents group and elsewhere. People saying schools should just open as normal tomorrow are in a minority from all the opinions I have seen and heard. In fact, I think this forum is the only place I have seen this opinion.

I have also been told a school in Kent will only have a minority of classes running, as most teachers have decided not to come in. They are not skiving off, but instead online teaching, and this is certainly not a popular method for teachers.

I will also add, most of the people who I have talked to about this, or I’ve heard/seen talking about this (largely teacher friends, colleagues), have not had extreme pro-lockdown views, and neither are they all part of a union (though some are).

 

[Ianno87]

This was just my perspective from my colleagues, friends who are teachers, opinions from a local residents group and elsewhere. People saying schools should just open as normal tomorrow are in a minority from all the opinions I have seen and heard. In fact, I think this forum is the only place I have seen this opinion.

I have also been told a school in Kent will only have a minority of classes running, as most teachers have decided not to come in.

I will also add, most of the people who I have talked to about this, or I’ve heard something talking about this (largely teacher friends, colleagues), have not had extreme pro-lockdown views.

It probably boils down to the area of the country as to what the prevailing view is. There's plenty of Tier 4 areas where infection rates have never been, and are still not, particularly high, so teachers/parents are less worried about returning.

 

[alex397]

It probably boils down to the area of the country as to what the prevailing view is. There's plenty of Tier 4 areas where infection rates have never been, and are still not, particularly high, so teachers/parents are less worried about returning.

Yes, as I said in my first post about this, the opinion I have been seeing is from Kent, where people are understandably baffled as to why most areas of Kent are considered ‘unsafe’, but Canterbury, Thanet, Dover are perfectly fine for schools to open.

 

[theironroad]

Once again, lots of people assuming that anyone of importance listens to the teaching unions.

In the 1980s there was intermittent industrial action that was finally settled in 1987 with the Teachers' Pay and Conditions Act which set up a forerunner of the pay review body. In addition, teachers were granted the right to a lunch break (lucky them).

I’m struggling to think of anytime since then when the English teaching unions have enjoyed any success with any campaign that they have run(I understand Scotland is different). Yes, there have been some strike days here and there but they have never changed anything.

If the schools close this time around, I believe it will be because the government believes it is necessary to stem the rise in infections and for no other reason.

For the avoidance of doubt, I’ll be at work tomorrow and I honestly couldn’t care less about any personal risk I may/may not have to the virus.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 3 Jan 2021 ==


Even though it’s completely irrelevant, the government couldn’t care less what the teaching unions/teachers say.

Not sure if you're a teacher or not but while you may well have a cavalier attitude to your own risk of contracting covid going to work, the cavalierr attitude if you pass it on asymptomatically is worrying. I'd certainly not want to be the transport worker, supermarket worker or someone else coming into contact with you.

 

[Yew]

Not sure if you're a teacher or not but while you may well have a cavalier attitude to your own risk of contracting covid going to work, the cavalierr attitude if you pass it on asymptomatically is worrying. I'd certainly not want to be the transport worker, supermarket worker or someone else coming into contact with you.

There's increasing evidence that asymptomatic transmission has been vastly overstated.

 

[Ianno87]

Formal letter from my son’s primary school this evening, confirming opening as usual tomorro, just with some additional distancing measures in place.

I won’t post the exact wording of the letter (which risks revealing the school), but implies that all teachers are returning by their own choice.

 

[The Ham]

Even though it’s completely irrelevant, the government couldn’t care less what the teaching unions/teachers say

The point of my post was to highlight that actually for most schools they could have those staff at risk not in school (but still providing online teaching) and it not overly impact the school's ability to provide teaching.

Of course you do start to run into increased staff numbers when you consider any family member who may be in the high risk groups. However with the rolling out of vaccines for more and more of those within the high risk groups then that risk starts to fall.

 

[Solent&Wessex]

I am in a Tier 3 area with cases vastly below the national average, and some of the lowest in the country at the minute. I've Noted 2 postings on my local community facebook group this evening saying that 2 primary schools will be shut. Both apparently, according to the letters and communications from the schools posted on that group, due to a number of teachers refusing to attend work which means the schools do not have sufficient staff available.

At last check there were over 200 comments which appeared split roughly as follows:

25%, mainly male but with the odd female, saying things like "our local area has really low rates, if it was safe a few months ago when they were 4 times higher why is it not safe now?" Or "I have to go to work in my supermarket / shop / factory etc so these teachers should be made to go to work too".

70%, mainly female, mainly seemingly young, saying things like "it isn't safe to go to school, the children will all die" "the teachers are right, it's not safe to go out now, we need a national lockdown now to save lives" "I'm not sending my little Jonny back to school till this killer virus has gone, it just isn't safe" "Those of you saying schools should be open, how would you feel if a child died because they caught covid at school? You have no feelings. It just isn't safe." "Boris should close all the schools till all the children have been vaccinated to stop them catching this killer virus. People are dying, can't anyone see this?".

5% moderates trying to calm things down and offer a balanced view!

 

[ScottGallagher]

Once again, lots of people assuming that anyone of importance listens to the teaching unions.

In the 1980s there was intermittent industrial action that was finally settled in 1987 with the Teachers' Pay and Conditions Act which set up a forerunner of the pay review body. In addition, teachers were granted the right to a lunch break (lucky them).

I’m struggling to think of anytime since then when the English teaching unions have enjoyed any success with any campaign that they have run(I understand Scotland is different). Yes, there have been some strike days here and there but they have never changed anything.

If the schools close this time around, I believe it will be because the government believes it is necessary to stem the rise in infections and for no other reason.

For the avoidance of doubt, I’ll be at work tomorrow and I honestly couldn’t care less about any personal risk I may/may not have to the virus.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 3 Jan 2021 ==


Even though it’s completely irrelevant, the government couldn’t care less what the teaching unions/teachers say.

In normal times the Government or D of E in itself might not care less what the unions or teachers say but the print and broadcast media certainly do when kids are being used and the Government will care very much about the media narrative, hence the continuous u turns.

 

[sjpowermac]

Not sure if you're a teacher or not but while you may well have a cavalier attitude to your own risk of contracting covid going to work, the cavalierr attitude if you pass it on asymptomatically is worrying. I'd certainly not want to be the transport worker, supermarket worker or someone else coming into contact with you.

Do you think that schools are unsafe or spreading the virus? What’s your opinion? I ask because I can’t tell from your post.

Are you saying that all staff who work in schools are a danger to transport workers/supermarket staff or is it just me that you think is unsafe?

I follow all of the ‘Covid secure’ rules that my workplace has set, what is it that makes you think that I don’t?

When I say that I have no concern for my own safety that is because I know that statistically I’m very unlikely to die from or be hospitalised by the virus.

When I’m faced with 250 students trying to exit a dinner hall all at the same time through a narrow exit and I’m placed in a position where I have to try and supervise that, what do you suggest I do? Stand there trembling?

 

[yorkie]

So no facts and figures to back up your assertions? Not going to lie, I'm slightly disappointed with that as you seemed so sure with what you were saying and I'd hoped to find something that could give us all a generalised indication of how people were actually feeling so I didn't have to rely on forums, social media and the mainstream media.

What stats do you want?

You can't rely on polls.

You've seen the views of teachers who have posted on here. I was on a recent walk with a few other forum members, two of whom are also teachers but have not posted on this thread, and their experiences seemed similar.

To be quite frank it renders the rest of the discussion pointless as this was all I was looking for but as you've taken the time to respond I will work through it (especially as I've now figured out how to split quote - love how easy that is by the way )


As I said, it is just a feeling I've got based on where I pick up snippets of information, mainly interviews with teachers, parents and schoolkids, but I am well aware that it isn't always factual - hence why I got excited when seeing your certainty in what you were saying. Unfortunately, it appears your certainty was more of a feeling as well

Never trust social media when it comes to the views of people relating to schools.

By your definition no-one can have certainty so there is no point looking for that certainty.

What forum it is doesn't really matter but it's safe to say that it is not railway related but is similar in that it is littered with people who are clearly educated and are able to reach conclusions based on the information they have available to them. It is also inhabited by people from a vast array of backgrounds and whom have jobs within various sectors.

As for the second point - don't we have an entire thread on here somewhere discussion the 'Return to Education' that is pretty full of people who want children to be at school and who have made that point quite robustly?

Yes we do; it's this one!

Not sure if you are referring to this here but it's quite interesting you should make a point like this as the big reason I hoped to find some info you held to back up your adamant claims previously was that as someone who is stuck in the middle of this debate (ie doesn't make much difference to me either way), it kind of feels like we basically have a situation where those who are anti-lockdown will side with the 'keep schools open' group and those who are more pro-lockdown will join the other side. I don't know whether Brexit has played a part in this but it feels a lot like people feel they have to be on one side or the other with little scope for middle ground!

Yes it's very tribal; you make a very good point. Many people are not interested in carrying out research and instead just go with what their 'side' is saying.

It's similar with the vaccine; people like me are happy with the 12 week gap between jabs, but the sort of people who want schools closed generally are not happy and want the 3 week gap.

There are many more examples.

I think most actual parents of children of school age, and most teachers think beyond that tribalism though.

I'm not really sure what you are getting at here, particularly with the part of my post you were responding to. I am sure there are lots of people with great knowledge across a broad spectrum of matters and who have great life experience - in fact the few I have interacted with regularly show these skills perfectly. Equally, the same can be said of the forum I have referred to and probably to many other forums that grace the interweb!

I can't comment on other forums without knowing what they are, I can only vouch for the authenticity of people who I know.

So really your confidence in the post that caught my attention has come from a small census of people that you work with? Not too different to me obtaining a 'feeling' from the various sources of information available to me. Again, I'd hoped for something more concrete!

No; it comes from talking with people from other schools too.

It's not necessarily the media outlet that I believe. It's the teachers, parents and students who they have interviewed who give off the greatest perception of how people are thinking - why shouldn't I believe what they are saying?

I'd like to hear who is being interviewed and where? Are they being selective in who they interview or whose interviews they publish?

And of course it's not representative, but then again neither is asking a few colleagues at your own place of work!

But all the others I've asked at other schools say a similar thing.

I would just add that you only quoted part of what I'd said with regards to the testing of teachers at school. What I was discussing was confined to a solitary school somewhere in the UK - I have no idea if this is planned for all schools. Just wanted to clear that up as I don't want to become part of the fake news brigade

I only skim read the post but that part caught my eye and I wanted to reply to that part.

I didn't quote the other parts because I wasn't responding to them.

If there is a lengthy post and I want to just address one particular aspect of it, I'll just quote the relevant part.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 3 Jan 2021 ==

Not sure if you're a teacher or not but while you may well have a cavalier attitude to your own risk of contracting covid going to work, the cavalierr attitude if you pass it on asymptomatically is worrying. I'd certainly not want to be the transport worker, supermarket worker or someone else coming into contact with you.

I have no idea what has caused you to say this. By that logic, transport workers and supermarket workers would need to stop working too, wouldn't they?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 3 Jan 2021 ==

In other news, I predict the front page of the York Press tomorrow will be about the fact that parents trying to book Year 11s for tests have been unable to book appointments in the next two weeks, despite next week supposedly being prioritised for Y11/13 and the week after being open to all years. That could cause a further delay, in York at least.

My source for this is several parents emailing schools to say they have been unable to book a test in the next 2 weeks.

 

[Bikeman78]

70%, mainly female, mainly seemingly young, saying things like "it isn't safe to go to school, the children will all die" "the teachers are right, it's not safe to go out now, we need a national lockdown now to save lives" "I'm not sending my little Jonny back to school till this killer virus has gone, it just isn't safe" "Those of you saying schools should be open, how would you feel if a child died because they caught covid at school? You have no feelings. It just isn't safe." "Boris should close all the schools till all the children have been vaccinated to stop them catching this killer virus. People are dying, can't anyone see this?".

Little Jonny is more likely to get run over than die of Covid. As I've mentioned before, my local school has closed one entrance and caused congestion on the road and pavement at the remaining entrance. It will be interesting to see what happens if someone does get run over.

 

[The Ham]

Little Jonny is more likely to get run over than die of Covid. As I've mentioned before, my local school has closed one entrance and caused congestion on the road and pavement at the remaining entrance. It will be interesting to see what happens if someone does get run over.

Indeed, currently the likelihood of dying from Covid-19 in your lifetime is 1:1,000, now that's going to get more likely the longer that we go with this virus, however even doubling the numbers who die would increase it to about 1:500 with the young being much lower than this (if it's something that we end up living with, like flu, then it could get more likely but probably not by a whole lot more).

Compare that to the risk of your death being on the roads which is 1:250 and it just highlights just how skewed our sense of risk actually is.

 

[Ianno87]

Indeed, currently the likelihood of dying from Covid-19 in your lifetime is 1:1,000, now that's going to get more likely the longer that we go with this virus, however even doubling the numbers who die would increase it to about 1:500 with the young being much lower than this (if it's something that we end up living with, like flu, then it could get more likely but probably not by a whole lot more).

Compare that to the risk of your death being on the roads which is 1:250 and it just highlights just how skewed our sense of risk actually is.

The usual retort when this is pointed out is "but you can't take a car accident to your granny's house and kill her!"

 

[The Ham]

The usual retort when this is pointed out is "but you can't take a car accident to your granny's house and kill her!"

Indeed, but in driving to your grannies house you could run her over.

Also age and underlying heath conditions have limited impact on the likelihood of dying and so more will die with the potential of a long life ahead of them.

Finally relatively little is done to try and minimise the risk, indeed there's a near normal acceptance within some that a phone can be used at the wheel of a car. Something which time and again has been shown to increase the risk of an accident.

 

[The_Train]

What stats do you want?

You can't rely on polls.

You've seen the views of teachers who have posted on here. I was on a recent walk with a few other forum members, two of whom are also teachers but have not posted on this thread, and their experiences seemed similar.

I just hoped you had a source to information that gave a more broad view of things than you simply asking a few people.
And why can't we rely on polls? Surely asking a broad selection of the population gives off a better feeling than someone asking their own like-minded friends/colleagues?

Never trust social media when it comes to the views of people relating to schools.

By your definition no-one can have certainty so there is no point looking for that certainty.

And yet you were so adamant with your claims...…

Yes we do; it's this one!

And yet you said, and I quote:

Parents who want children to be at school don't tend to go posting this intention on forums.

But you're now saying that people with kids who want them at school do go posting this intention on forums - as this very thread proves!

That's the point I was getting at with my cryptic response about there being a thread on here proving you wrong!

Yes it's very tribal; you make a very good point. Many people are not interested in carrying out research and instead just go with what their 'side' is saying.

It's similar with the vaccine; people like me are happy with the 12 week gap between jabs, but the sort of people who want schools closed generally are not happy and want the 3 week gap.

There are many more examples.

I think most actual parents of children of school age, and most teachers think beyond that tribalism though.

I assume that most of what you've put here is your own 'feelings' and assumptions or do you have sources for these statements?

I can't comment on other forums without knowing what they are, I can only vouch for the authenticity of people who I know.

I'm sure you are very proud of this forum (rightly so, it's a good forum) but I can confirm to you that knowledgeable people with great life experience do exist outside of this forum. You've not cornered that market just yet! And this means that I can listen to what they say (which is generally close schools) just as much as you can listen to what people on here say (which seems to be more keep schools open) and we can say we have conducted similar research (although it could be argued that mine is slightly more broad but I don't like to toot my own whistle) to reach our current conclusions on what is the best outcome as neither of us have any source of factual information!

No; it comes from talking with people from other schools too.

Fair enough but how broad of a census are we talking and how much notice do you take of anyone who may have a differing opinion to you. It's easy when you are so adamant on something to question 10 people about it but only report back that 5 people agreed with you without any indication of you ever asking the other 5 people.

Either way, your approach is no different to me obtaining information through media (social and mainstream). Is me reading the social media posts of 10 teachers any different to you speaking to 10 teachers face to face?

I'd like to hear who is being interviewed and where? Are they being selective in who they interview or whose interviews they publish?

I couldn't tell you but I'm sure you could easily find many interviews with teachers, parents and students and I'm sure they'd be from a broad selection of people - especially if you conducted a search across many media platforms.

But all the others I've asked at other schools say a similar thing.

Unless you're trawling around the country questioning people of all backgrounds, all ages and all of the different circumstances faced by teachers, parents and students alike it really doesn't matter. It still all comes back to the fact that you've asked a few people and are happy to make posts like the original one that prompted this discussion as though you actually have sources for your information. It would be a bit like me heading to Newcastle and asking 10 people there which football team they support and then broadcasting my findings that Newcastle Utd must be the biggest supported club in the UK

I only skim read the post but that part caught my eye and I wanted to reply to that part.

I didn't quote the other parts because I wasn't responding to them.

If there is a lengthy post and I want to just address one particular aspect of it, I'll just quote the relevant part.

I may be wrong here as I only figured out how to split quote a post yesterday but to have removed a part of my post, you would have had to delete it yourself so this doesn't stand up. Even if that isn't the case, you managed to pretty much cover everything else I posted and then managed to remove a few words which completely changed the context of what you were quoting. It wasn't actually a big deal before, I just wanted to make the point that I wasn't referring to anything nationally as I appreciate the importance of avoiding fake news spreading. However, your response to it makes me smell something that isn't particularly nice


The reality of why this caught my eye is that I have read a lot of the Coronavirus chat on this forum and one thing that is apparent throughout is your desire for people to supply sources to claims they make, and it always seems to be a request you make when someone is making an argument against your own beliefs.

A few examples from covid threads are below (the last 2 are from locked threads so I couldn't use the quote function):

Source please? Can you add a link and quote the text.

If your source is Ferguson, see this: https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...own-at-this-point.209250/page-10#post-4778867

Do you have a source for this claim pleasee?

From 23 July 2020:

https://ltccovid.org/2020/07/23/new-country-report-the-covid-19-long-term-care-situation-in-sweden/

Indeedd. @The Ham do you have a source for your claim?

I do not think this is true. Do you have a source for this?

And before you play the 'administrator requesting site rules be followed' none of these relate to that - these are all your responses to people making claims that don't fit your agenda and don't appear to be anything to do with you having your admin hat on.

So where are your sources for this:

I also agree that the majority of school staff do want to keep schools open.

The overwhelming majority of parents want to keep schools open.

Do you have a source that confirms 'the majority of school staff do want to keep schools open'?
Do you have a source that confirms 'the majority of parents want to keep schools open'?

As I've said, this debate doesn't affect me either way and I don't really have an opinion on what is the best option. I do however, find it unfair that you are happy to knock what others say about covid through requests for sources just because their claims/opinions don't meet your own agenda but are happy to make statements based on nothing more than your own feelings and thoughts.

 

[yorkie]

I just hoped you had a source to information that gave a more broad view of things than you simply asking a few people.

What information will satisfy you to count as a more broad view of things?

And why can't we rely on polls?

Because no ordinary working person has time for polls!

Surely asking a broad selection of the population gives off a better feeling than someone asking their own like-minded friends/colleagues?

I don't really care what some random person who has got no idea what schools do thinks about schools, though if they want an argument, I'll give them one

I made about 40 telephone calls today and not a single parent suggested they wanted the return to education to be prolonged.

Granted I didn't specifically ask them as that wouldn't be professional, but when I said something like a reference to "hopefully" being back in 1/2 weeks all I got was positive responses in agreement.

And yet you were so adamant with your claims...…

And yet you said, and I quote:

But you're now saying that people with kids who want them at school do go posting this intention on forums - as this very thread proves!

That's the point I was getting at with my cryptic response about there being a thread on here proving you wrong!

I don't see how that proves me wrong. If you don't want to believe me, that's your choice.

I assume that most of what you've put here is your own 'feelings' and assumptions or do you have sources for these statements?

My sources are my conversations with parents, as well as other staff telling me their experiences.

I'm sure you are very proud of this forum (rightly so, it's a good forum) but I can confirm to you that knowledgeable people with great life experience do exist outside of this forum.

Well that's obvious!

You've not cornered that market just yet!

We have no intention of cornering any market.

And this means that I can listen to what they say (which is generally close schools) just as much as you can listen to what people on here say (which seems to be more keep schools open) and we can say we have conducted similar research (although it could be argued that mine is slightly more broad but I don't like to toot my own whistle) to reach our current conclusions on what is the best outcome as neither of us have any source of factual information!

You can choose to believe people on other forums over people here, that's your choice.

Fair enough but how broad of a census are we talking and how much notice do you take of anyone who may have a differing opinion to you. It's easy when you are so adamant on something to question 10 people about it but only report back that 5 people agreed with you without any indication of you ever asking the other 5 people.

While I don't explicitly ask a question such as "do you want the return to education to be delayed", because that probably isn't the best thing for me to say, I may say something like "hopefully we'll see <name> in a couple of weeks" or something and the general response is positive/in agreement. I've not had any parent actively disagree.

Either way, your approach is no different to me obtaining information through media (social and mainstream). Is me reading the social media posts of 10 teachers any different to you speaking to 10 teachers face to face?

I'd say potentially so; I value the opinions of people who I can verify the authenticity higher than random people whose identity cannot be identified.

I've also had dozens of contacts personally with parents so I do not need to rely on anyone else (though when I have asked others, their experiences matched my own).

I couldn't tell you but I'm sure you could easily find many interviews with teachers, parents and students and I'm sure they'd be from a broad selection of people - especially if you conducted a search across many media platforms.

The media are very keen to conduct interviews with pro-lockdown people but I've not encountered any parent express any such view. That's not that I am saying they don't exist, but they appear to me to be a minority.

Unless you're trawling around the country questioning people of all backgrounds, all ages and all of the different circumstances faced by teachers, parents and students alike it really doesn't matter. It still all comes back to the fact that you've asked a few people and are happy to make posts like the original one that prompted this discussion as though you actually have sources for your information.

My source is conversations I have had with parents, as well as conversations I have had (in person) with other school staff regarding the conversations they have personally had with parents.

You can choose not to believe me if you want.

It would be a bit like me heading to Newcastle and asking 10 people there which football team they support and then broadcasting my findings that Newcastle Utd must be the biggest supported club in the UK

Not really.

I may be wrong here as I only figured out how to split quote a post yesterday but to have removed a part of my post, you would have had to delete it yourself so this doesn't stand up.

Yes it does. I was addressing one part of your post only. I was not addressing the other parts. Anyway, as promised, I have the answer: tests are not mandatory, at least not where I am. Again you can choose to not believe me, and instead believe your source, if you wish.

Even if that isn't the case, you managed to pretty much cover everything else I posted and then managed to remove a few words which completely changed the context of what you were quoting. It wasn't actually a big deal before, I just wanted to make the point that I wasn't referring to anything nationally as I appreciate the importance of avoiding fake news spreading. However, your response to it makes me smell something that isn't particularly nice

I have no idea what you are trying to say here. I saw a particular part of your post that I wanted to address, I mentioned I would make enquiries today and have done so, and posted my answer, which you can believe or not believe.

The reality of why this caught my eye is that I have read a lot of the Coronavirus chat on this forum and one thing that is apparent throughout is your desire for people to supply sources to claims they make, and it always seems to be a request you make when someone is making an argument against your own beliefs.

Yes a source is always useful especially when posting information as fact. But we are talking about the opinions of parents. I can state what my experiences are of conversations I have personally had with parents and I can also state that other school staff, who I know personally, have had similar experiences.

A few examples from covid threads are below (the last 2 are from locked threads so I couldn't use the quote function):

The first one is "you would be looking at 250,000 death plus other serious cases hospitalised ! " that is a statement of fact and needs to be backed up by a source. It is not the same thing at all.

The other two do not have links, nor pasted the original quote, so I do not know what the original quote was.

And before you play the 'administrator requesting site rules be followed' none of these relate to that - these are all your responses to people making claims that don't fit your agenda and don't appear to be anything to do with you having your admin hat on.

So where are your sources for this:


Do you have a source that confirms 'the majority of school staff do want to keep schools open'?

The majority of school staff that I speak to do seem to want schools to remain open; they are busy people and don't tend to go campaigning on social media platforms.

This is not comparable to a claim that X thousand people will die under certain circumstances; that's a completely different matter and is not a matter of peoples' opinions. To use that as a comparison is, at best, disingenuous.

Do you have a source that confirms 'the majority of parents want to keep schools open'?

As stated above that is the feedback I am getting in my conversations and other school staff I speak to concur.

As I've said, this debate doesn't affect me either way and I don't really have an opinion on what is the best option. I do however, find it unfair that you are happy to knock what others say about covid through requests for sources just because their claims/opinions don't meet your own agenda but are happy to make statements based on nothing more than your own feelings and thoughts.

As stated above, asking for a source that X thousand deaths will occur under certain circumstances is not in any way comparable to the opinions of parents.

 

[alex397]

At my school today, most teachers were uncomfortable about being at work, with many agreeing the school should have returned online for 1-2 weeks rather than coming in. Many staff also wearing masks and visors a much more than last term before Christmas. Also most were baffled about how 10 minutes down the road all schools had to close, but it was deemed safe for us to continue. Just my perspective from my school.
Like most schools, ours has tried to keep open as long as it could, and as safely as it could. All teachers here want the kids to be in school, and agree it is much better quality education being at school rather than online. Online teaching is not ideal (but still better than nothing). But that does not get away from the fact that most staff here were not completely comfortable about returning.
I feel very sorry for the children coming back to school today, getting back in the swing of things and seeing friends again, and expecting to come back in tomorrow, only for that to suddenly change again. Especially for some SEN children who need routine and certainty. I think it is damaging. This decision should have been made on Sunday, not today.

 

[farleigh]

I am hugely concerned about the effect this closure will have on our most vulnerable students and those who have worked so hard preparing for exams this year.

 

[yorkie]

At my school today, most teachers were uncomfortable about being at work, with many agreeing the school should have returned online for 1-2 weeks rather than coming in.

Let's be clear: there are effectively two issues here.

One is asking for more time before students returned, which was the plan until today.

The other is people calling for schools to be closed for the foreseeable future; not simply delayed opening. This is the option the pro-lockdown hysterical mob on social media were demanding.

A lot of staff and parents could see the logic behind a delayed start, and were on board with that. But closing schools until at least 22nd February is a completely different matter, and I see very little evidence of support for that among staff and parents.

Many key worker parents do not seem to realise that if they are key workers they can send their children to school full time. I had some phone calls today where I mentioned that and the parents decided to keep them in school full time as a result.

I predict many eligible children will not be in school.

People who want to close schools will try to use excuses like vulnerable or key worker kids will be in school. But that's a fallacy. The reality is that many hundreds of kids who are one or more of the following SEN, key worker children, pupil premium, or who whose mental health would suffer from not being in school, were NOT in school, in my school alone.

As a society we are not getting our priorities right and I fear it will come back to bite us one day.

Incidentally I said to a student we will see you when you return, which could be anything from two weeks to two months. Her eyes opened widely "two MONTHS?!" she exclaimed. I was keen to stress that we did not know how long it could be, but anything was possible. She said she really wants to be in school and does not like home learning. While I don't doubt some kids do want to be off for two months, the reality is that the vast majority absolutely do not.

Also several of the parents who are sending their children into school work in hospitals for the NHS, and some have even said they would trust their children to be at home alone but feel school is the best place for them.

I am obviously not going to say where this is, and if some people wish to believe my experiences are not truthful or representative that is their choice, but my conscience is clear and that's what really matters to me.

 

[Jamesrob637]

This decision should have been made on Sunday, not today.

Or before Christmas.

 

[The_Train]

Yes a source is always useful especially when posting information as fact. But we are talking about the opinions of parents. I can state what my experiences are of conversations I have personally had with parents and I can also state that other school staff, who I know personally, have had similar experiences.


The first one is "you would be looking at 250,000 death plus other serious cases hospitalised ! " that is a statement of fact and needs to be backed up by a source. It is not the same thing at all.

The other two do not have links, nor pasted the original quote, so I do not know what the original quote was.




The majority of school staff that I speak to do seem to want schools to remain open; they are busy people and don't tend to go campaigning on social media platforms.

This is not comparable to a claim that X thousand people will die under certain circumstances; that's a completely different matter and is not a matter of peoples' opinions. To use that as a comparison is, at best, disingenuous.



As stated above that is the feedback I am getting in my conversations and other school staff I speak to concur.


As stated above, asking for a source that X thousand deaths will occur under certain circumstances is not in any way comparable to the opinions of parents.

I'm not going to respond to the vast majority of your points as I can already tell we will go round in circles if I do.
However, on the point I made about sources and your desire for others to supply them when they are countering your argument and agenda, I fully appreciate that the quote you have mentioned is a statement of fact and you are quite right to ask for a source. However, what you posted....

I also agree that the majority of school staff do want to keep schools open.

The overwhelming majority of parents want to keep schools open.

As for students, while students will often say they prefer to have extra time off school, the reality is that most students don't want prolonged periods of remote learning / school closures.

….is also littered with statements of fact and therefore, based on how you deal with things, you should expect to be asked to supply sources for this. Nowhere does it suggest that you are making localised assumptions based on conversations you've had and each of these statements could be read as offering factual information that covers nationwide.

Something like:

I also agree that the majority of school staff I have spoken to at the school I work at do want to keep schools open.

The overwhelming majority of parents I have spoken to at the school I work at want to keep schools open.

As for students, while students will often say they prefer to have extra time off school, the reality is that most students who go to the school I work at don't want prolonged periods of remote learning / school closures.

See how much difference that makes to what you are saying?
I guess what you should have put to be clearer with where your info is coming from doesn't generate that same frenzy that what you did post might do. Much more likely to instigate a response if people feel there is a national feeling for keeping schools open compared to a few people you speak to.

I suppose it is all pretty irrelevant after tonight's announcement but double standards in a debate are never going to help anyone

 

[BJames]

I just hoped you had a source to information that gave a more broad view of things than you simply asking a few people.
And why can't we rely on polls? Surely asking a broad selection of the population gives off a better feeling than someone asking their own like-minded friends/colleagues?

I don't really want to wade into this so I'm just taking this section but I do want to say something about the polls and why I don't believe that you can rely on them...

Today, the Guardian quoted this snap youGov poll (https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politic...edium=daily_questions&utm_campaign=question_1) - see:

UK Covid: Boris Johnson tells people to stay at home as England enters third national lockdown — as it happened

Latest updates: Boris Johnson says all schools in England must close; UK sees new record high of 58,784 cases and 407 deaths

www.theguardian.com

When you actually go into this, it says:

1592 GB adults surveyed

yet on the Guardian's live blog, it says

Some 79% of people either strongly (51%) or somewhat (28%) support the idea. Only 16% are either strongly (7%) or somewhat (9%) opposed.

YouGov's own twitter says "79% of Britons" (which by the way is 1257 people!)

I cannot see how any of this correlates to a "broad selection of the population", it accounts for a narrow selection of the population who actually sit and complete snap polls such as this. I cannot imagine this to be a large percentage of the working population or there would be more responses!

Bringing this back on topic, imagine this poll was not about lockdown, but rather about the schools reopening. I would be more inclined to trust like-minded colleagues etc than anonymous people behind a computer who may know nothing about schools other than what is being reported in the media. Fair enough they may have a connection - but they also may not!

 

[yorkie]

I'm not going to respond to the vast majority of your points as I can already tell we will go round in circles if I do.
However, on the point I made about sources and your desire for others to supply them when they are countering your argument and agenda, I fully appreciate that the quote you have mentioned is a statement of fact and you are quite right to ask for a source. However, what you posted....

There is a big difference between stating expected death figures and opinions, in my opinion!

If someone says 'most people want a lockdown', and someone else disagrees and 'most people do not want a lockdown', neither can be proven correct with a source as there is simply no source that can definitively prove this either way (definitely not a YouGov poll!)

If someone says there will be X deaths under a certain scenario, that's something that must be based on some research/modelling and is nothing to do with opinions.

….is also littered with statements of fact and therefore, based on how you deal with things, you should expect to be asked to supply sources for this. Nowhere does it suggest that you are making localised assumptions based on conversations you've had and each of these statements could be read as offering factual information that covers nationwide.

Something like:

See how much difference that makes to what you are saying?

I think this is nitpicking really. I'll try to remember to add a load of qualifiers to my posts on this subject in future.

But you have to bear in mind that I am not only going by my own direct experiences in this sector but also having had conversations with other colleagues; I find it very difficult to believe that a majority of parents, students, and teachers support the move to online learning until at least 22nd February, to the point where I am confident to say that isn't the case, but as it's a matter of opinion I cannot prove this nor can anyone disprove this.

I guess what you should have put to be clearer with where your info is coming from doesn't generate that same frenzy that what you did post might do. Much more likely to instigate a response if people feel there is a national feeling for keeping schools open compared to a few people you speak to.

To be fair I did state that I work in education earlier in the thread. I did not refer to a 'national feeling'; I was commenting specifically on the views of those directly involved. I personally don't think it is particularly relevant what someone who is not involved in education thinks as they cannot be relied upon to give an informed opinion and have no stake in the matter.

I suppose it is all pretty irrelevant after tonight's announcement but double standards in a debate are never going to help anyone

I don't think the example you cite is an example of double standards; I refer you to my opening paragraphs in this reply.

 

[158756]

I don't really want to wade into this so I'm just taking this section but I do want to say something about the polls and why I don't believe that you can rely on them...

Today, the Guardian quoted this snap youGov poll (https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politic...edium=daily_questions&utm_campaign=question_1) - see:

UK Covid: Boris Johnson tells people to stay at home as England enters third national lockdown — as it happened

Latest updates: Boris Johnson says all schools in England must close; UK sees new record high of 58,784 cases and 407 deaths

www.theguardian.com

When you actually go into this, it says:

yet on the Guardian's live blog, it says

YouGov's own twitter says "79% of Britons" (which by the way is 1257 people!)

I cannot see how any of this correlates to a "broad selection of the population", it accounts for a narrow selection of the population who actually sit and complete snap polls such as this. I cannot imagine this to be a large percentage of the working population or there would be more responses!

Bringing this back on topic, imagine this poll was not about lockdown, but rather about the schools reopening. I would be more inclined to trust like-minded colleagues etc than anonymous people behind a computer who may know nothing about schools other than what is being reported in the media. Fair enough they may have a connection - but they also may not!

If the sample is representative then 1592 people is plenty - it's a common fallacy that bigger necessarily means better, you get huge 'polls' on Twitter and the like which produce all sorts of nonsense results because the respondents are unrepresentative, and if you have a proper sample you're already into diminishing returns at 1592.

The issue that the subset of people willing to sign up to online polling companies might not share the views of the general public is harder to avoid (though I assume YouGov will have actively contacted members to take part, rather than simply asking people who spend all day browsing the internet), and unlike e.g how people voted at the last election, there is no way to compare the sample to any hard evidence of the population view on the matter of lockdowns.

 

[bb21]

I don't really want to wade into this so I'm just taking this section but I do want to say something about the polls and why I don't believe that you can rely on them...

Today, the Guardian quoted this snap youGov poll (https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politic...edium=daily_questions&utm_campaign=question_1) - see:

UK Covid: Boris Johnson tells people to stay at home as England enters third national lockdown — as it happened

Latest updates: Boris Johnson says all schools in England must close; UK sees new record high of 58,784 cases and 407 deaths

www.theguardian.com

When you actually go into this, it says:

yet on the Guardian's live blog, it says

YouGov's own twitter says "79% of Britons" (which by the way is 1257 people!)

I cannot see how any of this correlates to a "broad selection of the population", it accounts for a narrow selection of the population who actually sit and complete snap polls such as this. I cannot imagine this to be a large percentage of the working population or there would be more responses!

That is how polls work. You are supposed to test a sample of the population and generate projections for the whole population. The population size doesn't really matter, but generally if done well a sample size of ~1000 can be statistically shown to have an error margin of 3% or less (so those "strongly support the idea" is actually within a range of 48%-54%) with a 95% confidence level (so if you ran the survey 100 times, 95 times you would find it in the quoted range). I won't bother showing it here as it's late but a quick google will find it easily if interested.

This is generally accepted as a good indicative survey result, especially if the gaps between the options are outside the error margin. It is widely accepted practice in these cases to quote the result as a snapshot of opinions amongst the whole population. A larger sample size is not required, due to the law of diminishing returns. To improve the margin of error to 2% you will have to double the sample size to ~2000, so a lot of extra cost for little gain. It does not "account(s) for a narrow selection of the population who actually sit and complete snap polls such as this" as you put it. It is a scientific process.

A survey can never be 100% accurate, which is only possible if you sample the whole population. It should never be read as 100% accurate.

You are starting from an arbitrary assumption that they sampled their respondents poorly, while there is no evidence to suggest so. Pollsters have many ways to ensure their samples are as representative as they can be. The survey you quoted was performed by a well-regarded organisation so there is no reason to doubt they would have done their job badly.