Restarting HS2a

[AndrewE]

There are currently two trains an hour from London to Edinburgh and Glasgow on the West Coast Mainline.

Correct, one fast London and one via Birmingham train [each hour]

Wrong, One fast london hourly to Glasgow and one via Brum to either Glasgow or Edinburgh each hour. The fast London is first stop Warrington, so of no use at all to anybody wanting to connect in from Salop or the east Midlands.

 

[Trainbike46]

Wrong, One fast london hourly to Glasgow and one via Brum to either Glasgow or Edinburgh each hour. The fast London is first stop Warrington, so of no use at all to anybody wanting to connect in from Salop or the east Midlands.

What you say matches what the posts you're replying to are saying? Why are you calling them wrong?

 

[AndrewE]

What you say matches what the posts you're replying to are saying? Why are you calling them wrong?

because "currently two trains an hour from London to Edinburgh and Glasgow on the West Coast Mainline" is wrong. There is one hourly to Glasgow and one alternately to Edinburgh or Glasgow. "Two trains an hour from London to Scotland" would be correct.

It might be comparable in frequency with the ECML, but they don't have anything like the demand from a much bigger population at lots of big intermediate towns and cities.

p.s. to be fair, on the WCML we have got hourly trains to Glasgow and Edinburgh if you change off the class 9 onto the following TPE train, but it doesn't work at all southbound. Edinburgh to Crewe/Brum is just 2-hourly as far as the journey planners are concerned.

 

[Krokodil]

because "currently two trains an hour from London to Edinburgh and Glasgow on the West Coast Mainline" is wrong. There is one hourly to Glasgow and one alternately to Edinburgh or Glasgow. "Two trains an hour from London to Scotland" would be correct.

I know that this place has a reputation for pointless pedantry to uphold but this is taking the biscuit.

I said that there is a fast London and a via Birmingham. None of that is untrue. I made no statement about where in the Scottish Central Belt they terminated (some terminate at Blackpool anyway so your statement is "wrong", actually). You knew full well what I meant. We were talking about capacity constraints in Lancashire so where they end up after Carlisle isn't relevant. Just going "wrong" is incredibly rude.

 

[AndrewE]

I know that this place has a reputation for pointless pedantry to uphold but this is taking the biscuit.

I said that there is a fast London and a via Birmingham. None of that is untrue. I made no statement about where in the Scottish Central Belt they terminated (some terminate at Blackpool anyway so your statement is "wrong", actually). You knew full well what I meant. We were talking about capacity constraints in Lancashire so where they end up after Carlisle isn't relevant. Just going "wrong" is incredibly rude.

Are you saying that

There are currently two trains an hour from London to Edinburgh and Glasgow on the West Coast Mainline.

is factually correct? I don't think so.

 

[absolutelymilk]

I know that this place has a reputation for pointless pedantry to uphold but this is taking the biscuit.

I said that there is a fast London and a via Birmingham. None of that is untrue. I made no statement about where in the Scottish Central Belt they terminated (some terminate at Blackpool anyway so your statement is "wrong", actually). You knew full well what I meant. We were talking about capacity constraints in Lancashire so where they end up after Carlisle isn't relevant. Just going "wrong" is incredibly rude.

I have a certain member ignored, and I clicked the "show ignored content" button - reminded me why I did it in the first place!

 

[Krokodil]

is factually correct? I don't think so.

I didn't say that, did I? I said that there is one fast London and one via Birmingham. That's all I said. The discussion revolved around the Golborne Link, not what happens north of Carlisle.

 

[cle]

One option might be using Crewe for splitting - a Liverpool and a Lancs x 2.

As well as Carlisle for the fast Scot (2x?)

The path via Wolves would be available for something else - maybe that goes to Blackpool or Lancaster. I also think that 1x Liverpool could start from Curzon and let that other (today’s) service run to Preston or so. This way you have plenty of connectivity up the WCML, to enable more skip stopping (eg London trains only call at one of Wigan or Warrington)

 

[Zomboid]

The path via Wolverhampton isn't really for London to Scotland traffic, it's for Birmingham (and intermediate stations south of Warrington) to Scotland traffic. So where it should go should be determined by the places that people from Birmingham etc want to go, be that Scotland, Liverpool or Barrow in Furness

 

[Snow1964]

The path via Wolverhampton isn't really for London to Scotland traffic, it's for Birmingham (and intermediate stations south of Warrington) to Scotland traffic. So where it should go should be determined by the places that people from Birmingham etc want to go, be that Scotland, Liverpool or Barrow in Furness

Although it has never been clear to me why the paths seem to have a southern limit of Birmingham, and couldn't start at say Bristol, or Cardiff or Oxford etc.

Its as if it is assumed no one to the South or South West of Birmingham ever goes to Lake District or Scotland

 

[Wolfie]

Something to take into another conversation, but 2019 prices, as long as its stated as such, is fine. Infrastructure costs are usually presented in constant prices and the base year doesnt often change once construction is underway. In the article they mix a cost with a different scope, calculated at 2019 prices with the current exprlected programme cost at 2024 prices (converted by the media). You can use the OPI to get an idea of a cost in 2019 prices in current prices, but it would still not be what the outturn is.

Absolutely. You beat me to it - l was on a train with zero signal earlier - absolutely standard in Government for example.

 

[Zomboid]

Although it has never been clear to me why the paths seem to have a southern limit of Birmingham, and couldn't start at say Bristol, or Cardiff or Oxford etc.

Its as if it is assumed no one to the South or South West of Birmingham ever goes to Lake District or Scotland

Because they're ICWC paths. Though they're basically extensions of the London to Birmingham service, so I guess they could be cut off there and sent somewhere else.

 

[daodao]

Although it has never been clear to me why the paths seem to have a southern limit of Birmingham, and couldn't start at say Bristol, or Cardiff or Oxford etc.

Its as if it is assumed no one to the South or South West of Birmingham ever goes to Lake District or Scotland

Not really relevant to HS2, but the lines to the South or South West of Birmingham are NOT electrified. Even if HS2 is built north of the West Midlands, I would not expect any trains using it to reach the West Midlands from points further north to be extended to Oxford/Bristol/Cardiff and beyond.

 

[SynthD]

It was never clear to me what would have been gained by building the Golborne Link.

It would be easier to fit together a greater amount of freight, high speed and regular services if they share a shorter distance and avoid junctions like Euxton. North of Crewe there’s also services to Liverpool, but building to High Legh deals with that.

Although it has never been clear to me why the paths seem to have a southern limit of Birmingham, and couldn't start at say Bristol, or Cardiff or Oxford etc.

The hub has to be somewhere, and Birmingham works for all those places. Check the start-destination passenger counts to see whether a train full of people go from Cardiff to Glasgow in a whole day.

 

[cle]

The path via Wolverhampton isn't really for London to Scotland traffic, it's for Birmingham (and intermediate stations south of Warrington) to Scotland traffic. So where it should go should be determined by the places that people from Birmingham etc want to go, be that Scotland, Liverpool or Barrow in Furness

I did say above that the Birmingham - Scotland service should begin at Curzon St and zip up to Crewe. And that therefore this path might be able to flex to something else.

But yes it is the Euston-Wolves service (probably staying but more calls?) and a Birmingham - Wolves - WCML path merged together.

 

[Krokodil]

One option might be using Crewe for splitting - a Liverpool and a Lancs x 2.

As well as Carlisle for the fast Scot (2x?)

Those were already in the proposals for phase 2 service (though only one of the Liverpools would have a Lancaster portion attached)

Although it has never been clear to me why the paths seem to have a southern limit of Birmingham, and couldn't start at say Bristol, or Cardiff or Oxford etc.

In a better world Curzon St would have a link to the Banbury and Bromsgrove lines, which would be wired. However cross-country services have always been neglected, bar a couple of years when Operation Princess was promising great things (well, at least they tried).

Because they're ICWC paths.

They used to be ICXC paths. No reason that can't change back.

Check the start-destination passenger counts to see whether a train full of people go from Cardiff to Glasgow in a whole day.

Current patronage is not a reliable indicator of future potential. Current fastest times between Cardiff and Glasgow are around 6.5 hours with a trundle up the Marches before changing at Crewe (forget going via Birmingham, you'll ve lucky if XC turns up). Improving the service can only help.

I'm not saying that the potential is actually there, just that you don't know for certain that it isn't there either.

 

[Peter Sarf]

I would assume the biggest bar to HS2 services to Northern England/Scotland starting from a point further South West than Birmingham is the lack of electrification South West of Birmingham (aso down towards Oxford). If there is enough demand to justify such a HS2 service then I assume the relevant corridors would have enough traffic to justify electrification already.

Perhaps a cross country service from Bristol or further South West to the North West of England and Scotland could be resurrected utilising capacity on the WCML freed up be HS2.

 

[The Ham]

I would assume the biggest bar to HS2 services to Northern England/Scotland starting from a point further South West than Birmingham is the lack of electrification South West of Birmingham (aso down towards Oxford). If there is enough demand to justify such a HS2 service then I assume the relevant corridors would have enough traffic to justify electrification already.

Perhaps a cross country service from Bristol or further South West to the North West of England and Scotland could be resurrected utilising capacity on the WCML freed up be HS2.

Given XC typically has 4 coach units, even those services which are 8 coaches are 400 seats.

A half length HS2 train is expected to be up to 550 seats.

Whilst that's an uplift in capacity, at least on some services not by a ridiculous amount (although still by over 1/3).

The bigger issue is electrification. However Leamington Spa to Reading (by road) is 73 miles, so batteries should be able to bridge that gap - especially with electrification closing that up a little.

However, towards Oxford is about as far as a HS2 train running a XC path would likelybe faster than an actual HS2 service - even allowing a change at Reading and Old Oak Common. To Manchester they would be more frequent too (3tph vs 2tph - and the second XC service assumed is being generous as it would require a change at Birmingham)

As such towards the south I'm not sure that HS2 trains would be that useful, even though they are likely to have the fewest issues to overcome.

 

[The Planner]

Is the assumption here that a connection to HS2 is built (so wires south of Birmingham are the least of your problems as it stands)?

 

[Krokodil]

I would assume the biggest bar to HS2 services to Northern England/Scotland starting from a point further South West than Birmingham is the lack of electrification South West of Birmingham (aso down towards Oxford).

No, the biggest obstacle is the lack of a physical link between Curzon Street and the lines to Bromsgrove and Banbury. Wiring is a much easier thing to do - and we've got ways of running trains away from the wires if we really cannot be bothered doing things properly.

If there is enough demand to justify such a HS2 service then I assume the relevant corridors would have enough traffic to justify electrification already.

Any other European country would have wired Bristol-Bromsgrove and Oxford-Coventry years ago. As things stand we still haven't even wired either Bristol or Oxford from the London end.

Given XC typically has 4 coach units, even those services which are 8 coaches are 400 seats.

A half length HS2 train is expected to be up to 550 seats.

Whilst that's an uplift in capacity, at least on some services not by a ridiculous amount (although still by over 1/3).

There will be a lot of suppressed demand on XC thanks to years of hiking prices to keep Voyager loadings under control. Speed up the service by an hour (as HS2 Leeds would have done, slightly less for Manchester and Scotland), provide proper length trains and cut fares and there would be a spectacular sparks effect.

Is the assumption here that a connection to HS2 is built (so wires south of Birmingham are the least of your problems as it stands)?

Yes, this is all on the assumption that a future government recognises that not all intercity passengers want to go to London and funds the infrastructure to connect Bristol and Oxford (and beyond to Curzon Street and integrate XC into HS2.

 

[Zomboid]

, this is all on the assumption that a future government recognises that not all intercity passengers want to go to London and funds the infrastructure to connect Bristol and Oxford (and beyond to Curzon Street and integrate XC into HS2

I think this is somewhat away from what HS2 is for. If any bits are resurrected they'll be about London to... and Birmingham to... journeys. XC should be a beneficiary in some places of that, but it's not all about those end to end journeys.

If HS2 ever becomes what it should then it'll be full with the London and Birmingham centric services anyway.

 

[absolutelymilk]

Surely the easier thing to do would be to run new XC services using WCML capacity freed up by HS2?

 

[FMerrymon]

I think this is somewhat away from what HS2 is for. If any bits are resurrected they'll be about London to... and Birmingham to... journeys. XC should be a beneficiary in some places of that, but it's not all about those end to end journeys.

If HS2 ever becomes what it should then it'll be full with the London and Birmingham centric services anyway.

We can't expect direct services everywhere. Hs2 with further phases would improve non london intercity journeys and take pressure off of XC. Midland rail hub would connect SW and S Wales better with Curzon St through Moor St. OOC does too, but for OOC to provide a better, faster journey for SW, it needs the later phases to encourage the flow that way with quicker journey times.

The Didcot-Birmingham line should benefit from hs2 too with an expected 4 tph Oxford-Birmingham and a quicker journey for current xc passengers on hs2 for anyone travelling from Reading or further south.

The eastern branch would have provided further non London long distance improvements such as Nottingham-Leeds and Sheffield-York.

XC was always expected to continue running and would continue to provide a direct option but with less pressure and more ability to serve those intermediate stations.

 

[Krokodil]

If HS2 ever becomes what it should then it'll be full with the London and Birmingham centric services anyway.

This wouldn't have required extra paths on the core route, it would be a southwards continuation of the Curzon St to Manchester/Leeds/Scotland services on classic lines.

 

[FMerrymon]

Absolutely. You beat me to it - l was on a train with zero signal earlier - absolutely standard in Government for example.

Costs in constant/real prices are continually misunderstood. The media need to report costs correctly and ensure comparisons are like for like, include the base year or better adjust to same base - it's like giving a distance and not stating miles or kms.

Hinkley Point C gets similar treatment.

 

[Tobberz]

Where would a High SPeed connection south of Curzon street to classic lines be located?

 

[Peter Sarf]

No, the biggest obstacle is the lack of a physical link between Curzon Street and the lines to Bromsgrove and Banbury. Wiring is a much easier thing to do - and we've got ways of running trains away from the wires if we really cannot be bothered doing things properly.

Crickey. And electrification is nigh on impossible !.

Any other European country would have wired Bristol-Bromsgrove and Oxford-Coventry years ago. As things stand we still haven't even wired either Bristol or Oxford from the London end.

True. We can only dream.

There will be a lot of suppressed demand on XC thanks to years of hiking prices to keep Voyager loadings under control. Speed up the service by an hour (as HS2 Leeds would have done, slightly less for Manchester and Scotland), provide proper length trains and cut fares and there would be a spectacular sparks effect.

I can believe there is untapped demand there. Making Cross Country trains maximum length, to exploit the existing capacity used more efficiently, would be the first step to proving and addressing demand. Then move on to HS2 or whatever.

Yes, this is all on the assumption that a future government recognises that not all intercity passengers want to go to London and funds the infrastructure to connect Bristol and Oxford (and beyond to Curzon Street and integrate XC into HS2.

I got to thinking South West (and South) of Birmingham is the Thames valley technology corridor. Is there enough demand there ?.

Surely the easier thing to do would be to run new XC services using WCML capacity freed up by HS2?

Agreed.
Perhaps need more Voyagers or Bi-Mode replacements.

We can't expect direct services everywhere. Hs2 with further phases would improve non london intercity journeys and take pressure off of XC. Midland rail hub would connect SW and S Wales better with Curzon St through Moor St. OOC does too, but for OOC to provide a better, faster journey for SW, it needs the later phases to encourage the flow that way with quicker journey times.

The Didcot-Birmingham line should benefit from hs2 too with an expected 4 tph Oxford-Birmingham and a quicker journey for current xc passengers on hs2 for anyone travelling from Reading or further south.

The eastern branch would have provided further non London long distance improvements such as Nottingham-Leeds and Sheffield-York.

XC was always expected to continue running and would continue to provide a direct option but with less pressure and more ability to serve those intermediate stations.

Yes. Realistically HS2 would make journeys to/from the South West more attractive vie London. Thus actually reducing demand for Cross Country. A nice problem to have ?.

If demand one day really gets high enough then maybe an HS5 (or so) linking the South West to Curzon Street.
In my dreams and lets face is HS<5 London to Bristol would happen first.

Getting the HS2 Eastern branch through the East Midlands and on to the North East done might add weight to the argument for a connection to the South West of course.

Where would a High SPeed connection south of Curzon street to classic lines be located?

Good question.

I suppose a connection Southwards on to the WCML would be South of the Birmingham/Handsacre branch split to benefit all services.

For links towards Leamington and Bromsgrove probably close to Birmingham so via Curzon Street.
Leamington could be achieved via Coventry (so WCML covered) somehow ?.
But risks more pressure on the flat junctions at Coventry where all the extra freight could be going !.

---

BUT.
In a nut shell.
If we cannot even get High Speed rail as far as Manchester from the biggest city/conurbation in Britain then all the rest is a pipe dream.

 

[Zomboid]

Where would a High SPeed connection south of Curzon street to classic lines be located?

Claydon to EWR. Then onwards to Bristol via Oxford and Swindon.

Actually Berkswell would probably be better.

 

[cle]

Claydon to EWR. Then onwards to Bristol via Oxford and Swindon.

Actually Berkswell would probably be better.

How long would Curzon St - HS2 - Bicester - Oxford take?
Vs a faster pattern on the existing route (Coventry - Oxford non-stop, for instance) ?

 

[Zomboid]

How long would Curzon St - HS2 - Bicester - Oxford take?
Vs a faster pattern on the existing route (Coventry - Oxford non-stop, for instance) ?

New Street to Oxford is around 1h15 via the current route and stops. The timetable in RTT for EWR allows around 25 minutes for Claydon to Oxford, with stops at Bicester Village and Oxford Parkway - where these trains may want to call as well.

So how long will a HS2 train take to get get from Curzon Street to Claydon? We've got 45-50 minutes to match the route via Banbury and Google claims that Curzon Street to "London" will take 49 minutes. So I reckon it'd be faster that way, but at the cost of paths on the southern leg of HS2. Let's call 35 minutes for a nice round 60 minutes to Oxford. Which is faster than going via Banbury and the ability to use the northern leg (should such a thing ever exist) will significantly improve journey times to Manchester from stations south of Oxford. The only downside being that not many people want to make that trip, judging by how the train almost completely empties out at New Street.

Just for fun, if we then turn right at Didcot, the GWR timetable allows 1h10 for the 1202 direct Oxford to Bristol Saturday service, so that's 2h10 to go round the houses via HS2 to get to Bristol. The direct route via Cheltenham takes 1h30, so shockingly enough that remains the fastest way.