Restarting HS2a

[HSTEd]

Looking at electricity and gas domestic prices as an example, would you say that a large increase in generation capacity, will have the same price reduction per generated unit?

More or less, yes.
Leaving aside the suppply and demand factors, a large portion of costs in the current electricity system are in categories that are only weakly dependent on the amount of electricity used.

For example, billing and other administration isn't really related to the amount of electricity actually distributed. Grid costs are only weakly related to ratings, instead being primarily dependent on the number of subscribers and their geographic distribution. Doubling the rating of a piece of equipment or cable does not normally double its cost, including installation, servicing and such. There are other, less obvious examples.

But yes, if we had a similar system today, except it was used for twice as much electricity, prices per unit would be substantially lower.

 

[The Planner]

What time factor would be required to perform that task?

Depends on where the split trains are going to, one to Manchester and one north and the second train could be away within 5 minutes of stopping.

 

[SynthD]

How 'commutable' will places like Birmingham, London, Liverpool, Manchester, Glasgow, Edinburgh be from a Cheshire New Town centred on Crewe be? Is it possible to 'think big'?

Think small for HS2 calling and splitting at the current Crewe, think big for a rebuilt Crewe with dedicated platforms. If the full HS2 is built, there will be captive and classic 400m trains continuing north.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Think small for HS2 calling and splitting at the current Crewe, think big for a rebuilt Crewe with dedicated platforms. If the full HS2 is built, there will be captive and classic 400m trains continuing north.

I wonder what the "small" and "big" full and final costs would be to meet that particular aspiration.

 

[350401]

Whilst it would be good to actually build 2a and Crewe in full, there should also be a think about what small interventions can get the biggest bang for the buck. 400m platforms at Crewe, Preston, Carlisle and Manchester Piccadilly deliver a lot of the benefit of phase 2 without that much spend. SDO can be used on the intermediate platforms between Crewe and Manchester with passengers allocated into the correct location by the booking system. That brings the benefit of 400m trains and huge capacity to Manchester without a huge phase 2 spend. 400m platforms at Crewe double Handsacre throughout capacity by enabling 2x200m trains to run through the bottleneck and split at Crewe. The trains themselves can be configured to have more seats - by removing half a coach of kitchen space in the leading coach, and instead just having a microbuffet with a microwave for hot food.

 

[BrianW]

Think small for HS2 calling and splitting at the current Crewe, think big for a rebuilt Crewe with dedicated platforms. If the full HS2 is built, there will be captive and classic 400m trains continuing north.

To my 'simple' mind railway developments will need to be accompanied by meeting 'missions' like enabling much more housing, which surely Crewe could be expected to do. Similarly stops on the 'classic' network- MK, Stafford, Stoke, Macc, Warrington and Wigan, Preston and Lancaster-a huge commutable area, in thee same way as Swindon, Cambridge and Grantham are commutable London.

 

[Krokodil]

Without a solution to Colwich, HS2 is limited to around six trains per hour to destinations north of Handsacre.

Plus the three Birminghams which makes a total of nine departures from OOC. How many trains could OOC turn back if it were a terminus? I'm sure that I've seen eight mentioned somewhere.

Alternatively you could do a couple of platforms at Crewe and a couple at Carlisle, and run Scotland trains non-stop Birmingham to Carlisle.

Preston is far more important than Carlisle, you really can't miss it out.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

How 'commutable' will places like Birmingham, London, Liverpool, Manchester, Glasgow, Edinburgh be......

Just as a matter of interest, when the original HS2 project was first put forward, at what stage in the construction process was it planned to have services that would serve Glasgow and Edinburgh?

 

[takno]

Preston is far more important than Carlisle, you really can't miss it out.

I'd more than happily skip both if it wasn't for the need to split the trains. If you're looking at shifting Edinburgh traffic over early to free up capacity on the East Coast then the last thing you want to do is be stopping places.

 

[HSTEd]

I'd more than happily skip both if it wasn't for the need to split the trains. If you're looking at shifting Edinburgh traffic over early to free up capacity on the East Coast then the last thing you want to do is be stopping places.

How much capacity is actually freed by attempting to abstract Edinburgh traffic to HS2 though?

I am also very doubtful you will be able to fill the train sufficiently to make a non stop journey attractive economically at a frequency that is attractive to the customer base.

 

[The Planner]

Just as a matter of interest, when the original HS2 project was first put forward, at what stage in the construction process was it planned to have services that would serve Glasgow and Edinburgh?

Day 1 of Phase 1

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Looking at the word "restarting" in the thread title and understanding its meaning to be starting something again that had been stopped for a period of time, what exactly in HS2a had actually physically started originally?

 

[350401]

Looking at the word "restarting" in the thread title and understanding its meaning to be starting something again that had been stopped for a period of time, what exactly in HS2a had actually physically started originally?

A lot of ground investigation works and enabling works, such as utilities diversions. Also, a lot of environmental mitigation sites had already been built.

 

[weeklycommuter]

Plus the three Birminghams which makes a total of nine departures from OOC. How many trains could OOC turn back if it were a terminus? I'm sure that I've seen eight mentioned somewhere.

From the full business case the number of trains per hour that can turn around at Old Oak Common as a terminus is six.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/939905/full-business-case-hs2-phase-one.pdf

The phased opening assumed 6 trains per hour (tph) from Old Oak Common between 2029 and 2031.

 

[Krokodil]

From the full business case the number of trains per hour that can turn around at Old Oak Common as a terminus is six.

So Euston is definitely more important than 2A then. Thought so. Not that we should have to choose.

 

[takno]

So Euston is definitely more important than 2A then. Thought so. Not that we should have to choose.

I rather got the impression that cancelling 2A was about saving some money to shovel into potholes. Euston struck me as more about the opportunity to take a piece of prime real estate which had been cleared at massive public expense and flog it for a song to the sort of terribly important and influential people who hang around the same dinner parties as the last government.

That could just be my prejudices at play of course, but it wouldn't exactly be the first time.

 

[Krokodil]

I rather got the impression that cancelling 2A was about saving some money to shovel into potholes. Euston struck me as more about the opportunity to take a piece of prime real estate which had been cleared at massive public expense and flog it for a song to the sort of terribly important and influential people who hang around the same dinner parties as the last government.

That could just be my prejudices at play of course, but it wouldn't exactly be the first time.

That was my fear too.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

FT have a piece today saying they have seen HS2 board papers showing phase 1 is now revised upwards to cost and additional 5-9B over last years estimate. I suspect Haigh was aware of this which is why she launched the investigation into the project a few months back. All in all this does nothing to help phase 2 get resurrected albeit the irony is it would have been a lot cheaper and quicker to build and made a real difference to WCML capacity.

https://www.ft.com/content/6ac54b08-530c-441c-a64e-68826df05cce

The cost of building Britain’s High Speed 2 railway has been estimated at up to £66bn, which is a £9bn increase on a previous calculation, in a paper produced this year by the troubled project’s management. A Department for Transport report on Tuesday will cite an HS2 board paper from June which put cost of the project at between £54bn and £66bn in 2019 prices, according to people familiar with the document. That marks a big increase from November last year, when the government revealed HS2’s official estimate of the cost of the rail line between London and Birmingham had risen to between £49bn and £57bn in 2019 prices. If inflation is taken into account, the latest estimate of up to £66bn would be close to £80bn in today’s prices.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

FT have a piece today saying they have seen HS2 board papers showing phase 1 is now revised upwards to cost and additional 5-9B over last years estimate. I suspect Haigh was aware of this which is why she launched the investigation into the project a few months back. All in all this does nothing to help phase 2 get resurrected albeit the irony is it would have been a lot cheaper and quicker to build and made a real difference to WCML capacity.

https://www.ft.com/content/6ac54b08-530c-441c-a64e-68826df05cce

I am sure that such matters would be both known and understood by the contributors to this thread. Just that some let their optimism overtake reality.

 

[SCDR_WMR]

My expectation is that it will keep on getting revised up.

 

[hwl]

The message that came out very strongly last Thursday at the Transport Select Committee, is “Get Phase One fixed, reset the programme in terms of cost certainty and schedule, then we can think about phase two” But until phase one is sorted, and whilst the PR is still bad, no politician will publicly commit to any extension. My money is on an extension of the phase 2a powers, no land sell off, but also no firm commitments. Then sometime in 2026, when things are hopefully more under control, it can be properly considered.

When we consider what has happened since the election; there has been some positive news. The Euston tunnels are being built and the railway systems contracts have been let.

Which is what I've been saying for the last 6 months but no one want to listen

There will be big looks at "cost plus" contracts and the way certain contractors have handled them as well as delays. Some have been good and other bad. The Bechtel court case submissions will prove to have be interesting crystal ball gazing.

2a alone is not magic bullet as you also need to sort Crewe Station and junctions which is the start of 2b

You need 400m platforms at Crewe run 400m trains. In terms of capacity through Colwich, that's more important than 2a or Euston

Unfortunately Crewe needs more that it also needs the junctions addressing to all the split and join that HS2 needs and alternatives on this thread that other dream up.

The Euston building and rebuilding will take so long that you have to start soon, the redesign (HS2) / design (NR) work started in September. The key Euston announcement was effectively we are going to do it hence we can get on with the tunnels for which we have already paid for the TBMs (and effectively for the lining segments too) at marginal incremental short term cost. The TBMs to Euston need to complete so all construction is out of the way in the eastern end of the box to get the max terminating capacity. The main oversite development opportunities are on the NR side and the early HS2 side available will be needed to mitigate capacity loss at the existing station.
Restarting the Euston preparation works will include the previously planned removal of the middle sidings and new more eastern P16 to enable another 20m to be available for construction to the West.

Phase 2a - Only about 70% is needed initially (along with Euston and Crewe stations) from Phase 1 to some where west of Norton Bridge where the WCML is then straight-ish (and high speed all the way to Crewe) and a direct connection to the the Macclesfield route to avoid short term capacity oopses (Hansacre etc.) and defuse the need for most of to 2b as quickly as originally anticipated.

Hence what is needed is parts of Euston, 2a (~70%) and 2b (Crewe) delivered in chopped up "stages" of the existing phases (can't uses Phases again as that would cause confusion!).

 

[Snow1964]

Plus the three Birminghams which makes a total of nine departures from OOC. How many trains could OOC turn back if it were a terminus? I'm sure that I've seen eight mentioned somewhere.

From the full business case the number of trains per hour that can turn around at Old Oak Common as a terminus is six.

It has a relatively quick (by large UK stations) approach to all 6 platforms (rather than 20-25mph junctions).

6 (one train arriving, and one departing every 10 minutes) is apparently very comfortable, 8 to 10 is considered possible as it still gives each train over 3 minutes to clear the junction to/from the platforms.

I'm not great at the maths on combinations of platforms that can be arrived at and departed from at same time. But from memory, about 40% of movements could be with both a train arriving and leaving simultaneously with no conflict, so allowing for this, even at 10 trains per hour don't need to be scheduled closer than about 5 minutes apart.

The alternative limiting factor is how long choose to keep the trains in the platforms for disembarking, servicing/cleaning, and embarkation. Perhaps 40 minutes minimum for longer distance services. Although it's questionable if Birmingham trains with roughly hours journey need cleaning at OOC and can just be done at just the other end.

 

[Nottingham59]

From the full business case the number of trains per hour that can turn around at Old Oak Common as a terminus is six.

That was the proposed timetable, but Old Oak can turn round more than that.

If you lay tracks at the Eastern end of the station into the start of one or both tunnels to Euston, then you can use these as reversing sidings to allow inbound trains on platforms 13 and 14 to reach the outbound platforms 9 and 10, without conflicts with trains on the central platforms 11 and 12, which can of course access the scissors crossover at the Western end of the station. Up to 12tph should be reliably achievable.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Hence what is needed is parts of Euston, 2a (~70%) and 2b (Crewe) delivered in chopped up "stages" of the existing phases (can't uses Phases again as that would cause confusion!).

What would be needed in financial terms for these referred-to parts of HS2a, when added to currently existing stages when allowance is made for the inflation scale cited in other postings

 

[Krokodil]

If you lay tracks at the Eastern end of the station into the start of one or both tunnels to Euston, then you can use these as reversing sidings

World's most expensive reversing siding...

Just build Euston!

 

[Nottingham59]

Unfortunately Crewe needs more that it also needs the junctions addressing to all the split and join that HS2 needs and alternatives on this thread that other dream up.

Or they can extend platforms at Warrington and Preston, and do much of the splitting / joining there, to relieve the need to rebuild Crewe.

The main oversite development opportunities are on the NR side and the early HS2 side available will be needed to mitigate capacity loss at the existing station.

Thanks for that insight. It explains a lot of what Hendy said at the Transport Select Committee.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 17 Dec 2024 ==

World's most expensive reversing siding...

Just build Euston!

Euston is going to take a decade to build. This gives you a short term fix to deliver the transport benefits of HS2 faster.

 

[Krokodil]

Or they can extend platforms at Warrington and Preston, and do much of the splitting / joining there, to relieve the need to rebuild Crewe.

How are you going to handle Liverpool trains if you don't extend Crewe?

Euston is going to take a decade to build. This gives you a short term fix to deliver the transport benefits of HS2 faster.

A temporary measure while construction is ongoing is one thing. It's daft to extend that to accommodate political dithering, and 2A shouldn't take priority over it.

 

[The Planner]

Or they can extend platforms at Warrington and Preston, and do much of the splitting / joining there, to relieve the need to rebuild Crewe.


Thanks for that insight. It explains a lot of what Hendy said at the Transport Select Committee.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 17 Dec 2024 ==


Euston is going to take a decade to build. This gives you a short term fix to deliver the transport benefits of HS2 faster.

Crewe is knackered and not fit for purpose now, but the canning of phase 2 has put all that in the bin and it will get piecemeal renewals.

 

[cle]

I am also very doubtful you will be able to fill the train sufficiently to make a non stop journey attractive economically at a frequency that is attractive to the customer base.

None but you can add more calls to the ECML fasts and add frequency to other stations' services to one another, and to London.

HS2 should ideally be a competitor to flying to EDI and GLA, and even out of Euston should be sub-4hr. If it gets to Crewe at least, comfortably so.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Which is what I've been saying for the last 6 months but no one want to listen

There will be big looks at "cost plus" contracts and the way certain contractors have handled them as well as delays. Some have been good and other bad. The Bechtel court case submissions will prove to have be interesting crystal ball gazing.

2a alone is not magic bullet as you also need to sort Crewe Station and junctions which is the start of 2b

Unfortunately Crewe needs more that it also needs the junctions addressing to all the split and join that HS2 needs and alternatives on this thread that other dream up.

The Euston building and rebuilding will take so long that you have to start soon, the redesign (HS2) / design (NR) work started in September. The key Euston announcement was effectively we are going to do it hence we can get on with the tunnels for which we have already paid for the TBMs (and effectively for the lining segments too) at marginal incremental short term cost. The TBMs to Euston need to complete so all construction is out of the way in the eastern end of the box to get the max terminating capacity. The main oversite development opportunities are on the NR side and the early HS2 side available will be needed to mitigate capacity loss at the existing station.
Restarting the Euston preparation works will include the previously planned removal of the middle sidings and new more eastern P16 to enable another 20m to be available for construction to the West.

Phase 2a - Only about 70% is needed initially (along with Euston and Crewe stations) from Phase 1 to some where west of Norton Bridge where the WCML is then straight-ish (and high speed all the way to Crewe) and a direct connection to the the Macclesfield route to avoid short term capacity oopses (Hansacre etc.) and defuse the need for most of to 2b as quickly as originally anticipated.

Hence what is needed is parts of Euston, 2a (~70%) and 2b (Crewe) delivered in chopped up "stages" of the existing phases (can't uses Phases again as that would cause confusion!).

The previous govt allegedly had a team working on dealing with the consequences of a truncated HS2 but thats all gobe quiet but one has to hope that with DfT and HS2 not exactly short staffed there is development of a strategy going on in the background.