Remaining Class 365s leaving GN - What next for the 365s?

[Minstral25]

Withdrawal has now been confirmed by Great Northern in Modern Railways:-
GTR to stand down ‘365s’ (keymodernrailways.com)

The article does say that GTR will 'work with the Department for Transport' to introduce additional trains once the Gatwick Express 387s need to be returned. So, I suppose that could mean 379s being introduced or (my preferred option), with the 365s being re-introduced.

Or 387's from C2C

 

[jon0844]

Withdrawal has now been confirmed by Great Northern in Modern Railways:-
GTR to stand down ‘365s’ (keymodernrailways.com)

The article does say that GTR will 'work with the Department for Transport' to introduce additional trains once the Gatwick Express 387s need to be returned. So, I suppose that could mean 379s being introduced or (my preferred option), with the 365s being re-introduced.

Seems unlikely when a 'benefit' of retiring the 365s is getting rid of trains without air conditioning or CCTV. Would seem odd to get them back at a later date.

I think the 379s seem the most logical option, but there's no rush to do so.

 

[bramling]

Seems unlikely when a 'benefit' of retiring the 365s is getting rid of trains without air conditioning or CCTV. Would seem odd to get them back at a later date.

I think the 379s seem the most logical option, but there's no rush to do so.

All depends what happens south of the river. If they wish to bin off the 313/455 fleet then there won’t be enough Electrostars to go round, even including acquisitions like the 389s, 377/5s or the LTS units. Start getting demand back at places like Baldock and Hitchin, and more units will be necessary in short order.

I suspect a fair amount will depend on the lessco. If they’re prepared to spent a nominal amount fitting CCTV and bodyside cameras, suddenly the units become a whole lot more attractive on paper, and better to get them on a dirt-cheap lease than pay to store them.

Time will tell, but whilst there’s a supply of EMUs at the moment, with fleets like 317, 319 and 321 now going well and truly in the bin, all of a sudden there won’t be quite as many units spare if they want to take the opportunity to shuffle things round and get rid of the remaining DC fleets like 455 *and* cater for some level of passengers returning.

 

[D365]

Sad. I don’t normally do farewells, but I have grown up with the 365s. They’re only a few years my senior.

 

[24Grange]

I will miss them, the only trains left on the Cambridge- KX route with reasonable seats Goodbye 512 and all.

 

[Bald Rick]

Start getting demand back at places like Baldock and Hitchin, and more units will be necessary in short order.

That’s a big if.

 

[Ianno87]

That’s a big if.

I see it being at least 5 or more years away (probably more) at least that traditional peak demand returns to anything even close to pre-Covid, if it ever does at all.

Which is a long time to keep units in store before new build becomes more economical.

 

[24Grange]

If indeed - the trains I've been on have struggled to have more than 2 or 3 per carriage ( or is that coach?)

 

[Bald Rick]

I see it being at least 5 or more years away (probably more) at least that traditional peak demand returns to anything even close to pre-Covid, if it ever does at all.

Which is a long time to keep units in store before new build becomes more economical.

It’s reasonably clear now, that the commuting market has changed structurally. The propensity to increase the amount of ‘work from home’ time compared to pre Covid increases by distance from work. It is also much, much more likely for office based workers than non office based workers (for whom it is close to zero).

So, commuting inside the M25 will come back quickly, perhaps to 70-80% by the end of the year. Outside the M25 is a different matter, and for the likes of Royston, Cambridge, St Neots, Huntingdon, Peterborough etc I’d be surprised if we see more than 60% by year end, and 80% within three years.

Personal views, based on chats I’ve had with people who live there.

 

[physics34]

Sad. I don’t normally do farewells, but I have grown up with the 365s. They’re only a few years my senior.

Riding a 365 on a cambridge fast with the windows open on a summers day was a truely 'lovely' experience, albeit a bit noisy!

 

[24Grange]

The 365 Window slamming shut as you go through a tunnel at speed - making everybody jump !!

 

[Snow1964]

It’s reasonably clear now, that the commuting market has changed structurally. The propensity to increase the amount of ‘work from home’ time compared to pre Covid increases by distance from work. It is also much, much more likely for office based workers than non office based workers (for whom it is close to zero).

So, commuting inside the M25 will come back quickly, perhaps to 70-80% by the end of the year. Outside the M25 is a different matter, and for the likes of Royston, Cambridge, St Neots, Huntingdon, Peterborough etc I’d be surprised if we see more than 60% by year end, and 80% within three years.

Personal views, based on chats I’ve had with people who live there.

I don’t disagree with the 60-80% figure, but I wonder if it might be 3-4 days in office instead of 5

Potentially could get completely different loadings if say everyone chooses Tue-Thur to travel, in which case will have to lease the trains to cope with busy loads on peak days

 

[Ianno87]

It’s reasonably clear now, that the commuting market has changed structurally. The propensity to increase the amount of ‘work from home’ time compared to pre Covid increases by distance from work. It is also much, much more likely for office based workers than non office based workers (for whom it is close to zero).

So, commuting inside the M25 will come back quickly, perhaps to 70-80% by the end of the year. Outside the M25 is a different matter, and for the likes of Royston, Cambridge, St Neots, Huntingdon, Peterborough etc I’d be surprised if we see more than 60% by year end, and 80% within three years.

Personal views, based on chats I’ve had with people who live there.

That is logical - the M25 (ish) feels like the logical break point where getting to the office switches between a relatively quick trip on a train, to something that becomes increasingly time (and cost) hungry.

Especially one you get to the likes of Huntingdon/Royston/Cambridge where managing in getting in your front door before 1900 on an office day in London had become something of a "treat". I don't think many people are keen to return to that every single day.

 

[Bald Rick]

I don’t disagree with the 60-80% figure, but I wonder if it might be 3-4 days in office instead of 5

It will be a combination of:

Formerly 5 dayers now 3-4
Formerly 3-4 days now 1-2
Formerly anything now 1-2
Formerly employed, now not
Formerly train now other mode

And all options inbetween.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 6 Mar 2021 ==

That is logical - the M25 (ish) feels like the logical break point where getting to the office switches between a relatively quick trip on a train, to something that becomes increasingly time (and cost) hungry.

Especially one you get to the likes of Huntingdon/Royston/Cambridge where managing in getting in your front door before 1900 on an office day in London had become something of a "treat". I don't think many people are keen to return to that every single day.

Also cost comes into it. Inside the M25 is mostly (not exclusively) Travelcard area and thus ‘relatively’ cheap. Big step up outside. On my line, an annual from Elstree is £2k, next stop Radlett is £3k, next stop St Albans nearly £4K.

 

[Ianno87]

It will be a combination of:

Formerly 5 dayers now 3-4
Formerly 3-4 days now 1-2
Formerly anything now 1-2
Formerly employed, now not
Formerly train now other mode

And all options inbetween.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 6 Mar 2021 ==



Also cost comes into it. Inside the M25 is mostly (not exclusively) Travelcard area and thus ‘relatively’ cheap. Big step up outside. On my line, an annual from Elstree is £2k, next stop Radlett is £3k, next stop St Albans nearly £4K.

The other thing to consider would be the set of people to whom 5 day London office commute on a busy train was not at all appealing, but now would be encouraged if the expectation was only 1-2 office days per week (travelling on a much quieter train). A form of "suppressed demand" being released.

 

[43096]

It will be a combination of:

Formerly 5 dayers now 3-4
Formerly 3-4 days now 1-2
Formerly anything now 1-2
Formerly employed, now not
Formerly train now other mode

And all options inbetween.

This former 5 dayer is likely to be a 2-3 dayer max in future, and I have colleagues who were 5 dayers who will likely be 1 dayers in future.

Much will depend on getting the pricing right on season tickets. Get it right and you might get a 2 dayer to become a 3 dayer. Get it wrong and a 3 dayer might decide season tickets are appalling value and become a 1 dayer instead. What the last 12 months have shown is that in many ways the railway is no longer an "essential service" for many. The railway needs to get used to understand that, and it also presents opportunities - no longer can the unions hold the railway to ransom. Go on strike (like the SWR strikes in 2019) and people will work from home instead: that has an enormous effect on the bargaining power.

 

[bramling]

It’s reasonably clear now, that the commuting market has changed structurally. The propensity to increase the amount of ‘work from home’ time compared to pre Covid increases by distance from work. It is also much, much more likely for office based workers than non office based workers (for whom it is close to zero).

So, commuting inside the M25 will come back quickly, perhaps to 70-80% by the end of the year. Outside the M25 is a different matter, and for the likes of Royston, Cambridge, St Neots, Huntingdon, Peterborough etc I’d be surprised if we see more than 60% by year end, and 80% within three years.

Personal views, based on chats I’ve had with people who live there.

Out of interest, how many of those chats have been along the lines of "I don't want to return to the office", as opposed to "My employer has made it clear I actually won't be returning to the office".

Locally I get the impression there's plenty of the former, not nearly so much of the latter.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 6 Mar 2021 ==

That is logical - the M25 (ish) feels like the logical break point where getting to the office switches between a relatively quick trip on a train, to something that becomes increasingly time (and cost) hungry.

Especially one you get to the likes of Huntingdon/Royston/Cambridge where managing in getting in your front door before 1900 on an office day in London had become something of a "treat". I don't think many people are keen to return to that every single day.

I don't see why the M25 is a breakpoint. It can be quicker to get to central London from somewhere like Letchworth, Hitchin or Stevenage, that it can from a London suburb like Colindale or Barnet. Even more so for somewhere like St Albans.

Certainly locally there's no let-up in demand for housing. I can't really see why someone would *want* to live somewhere like Letchworth if they're not going to be commuting, when they could be much, much, further out and have a considerably better standard of living.

 

[Ianno87]

Out of interest, how many of those chats have been along the lines of "I don't want to return to the office", as opposed to "My employer has made it clear I actually won't be returning to the office".

Locally I get the impression there's plenty of the former, not nearly so much of the latter.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 6 Mar 2021 ==

I suspect the general trend will be employers looking to generally downsize offices when leases come up, but generally expecting 1-2 days attendance per week.

Any employer that enforces the extremes of 5 day weeks, or "you can only work from home now" I think would be foolish.

I don't see why the M25 is a breakpoint. It can be quicker to get to central London from somewhere like Letchworth, Hitchin or Stevenage, that it can from a London suburb like Colindale or Barnet.

Well, yes, not a hard and fast rule, but a rough approximation. Obviously some edge cases that go either way. On the GN, Stevenage/Hitchin probably have some element of "quick into London 4 times per hour", but starts to come more marginal outside of that. But 4 x 12 car Thameslinks per hour is still absolutely spades of capacity for this demand.

The cost issue, doesn’t go away though, being a marked difference between a Stevenage season ticket, and Oyster fares within London. (£4k versus £2k or so)

 

[southern442]

All depends what happens south of the river. If they wish to bin off the 313/455 fleet then there won’t be enough Electrostars to go round, even including acquisitions like the 389s, 377/5s or the LTS units. Start getting demand back at places like Baldock and Hitchin, and more units will be necessary in short order.

I suspect a fair amount will depend on the lessco. If they’re prepared to spent a nominal amount fitting CCTV and bodyside cameras, suddenly the units become a whole lot more attractive on paper, and better to get them on a dirt-cheap lease than pay to store them.

Time will tell, but whilst there’s a supply of EMUs at the moment, with fleets like 317, 319 and 321 now going well and truly in the bin, all of a sudden there won’t be quite as many units spare if they want to take the opportunity to shuffle things round and get rid of the remaining DC fleets like 455 *and* cater for some level of passengers returning.

I have a feeling it would most likely be new-build units replacing 455s, and I could see that happening with 313s too although since they operate in slightly more 'rural' areas there is no huge pressure to have new build. Of course there will also be other things like 458s going spare but they've been a little neglected as of late so I can't see them being used until their design life is up.

 

[bramling]

I have a feeling it would most likely be new-build units replacing 455s, and I could see that happening with 313s too although since they operate in slightly more 'rural' areas there is no huge pressure to have new build. Of course there will also be other things like 458s going spare but they've been a little neglected as of late so I can't see them being used until their design life is up.

New build wouldn’t be on the table quickly enough, though. We’d be talking about a lead time of a couple of years minimum to procure, build and train staff (any new build would presumably be likely to be Aventra rather than Electrostar, or of course more Desiro City).

If demand stays suppressed for a while then it might be possible to get rid of the 313, 365 *and* 455 fleets, and then top it up with a new built a few years down the line. However this won’t work if there’s a quicker restoration in demand.

I suppose 458s could be an option, however I’m not sure what this would offer over 365s.

As an aside, could the 458s be easily made AC-ready and be used to displace the ScotRail 318/320 fleet?

 

[Bald Rick]

Out of interest, how many of those chats have been along the lines of "I don't want to return to the office", as opposed to "My employer has made it clear I actually won't be returning to the office".

Split like this:

A few people who already know they are going back to 5 days in the office. Notably they all work for Goldman Sachs or in the London reinsurance market.

More than a few who have said their employer is downsizing office accommodation, and the surveys have gone round saying ‘how many days a week do you expect to be in the office’. I gather HSBC are working on the assumption of needing 40% less office space; of course that doesn’t mean 40% fewer people in on any one day, but even if they crunch up a bit it’s going to be a 20-30% reduction in travel. I’m sure HSBC won’t be the only one.

Quite a few who don’t know but are assuming they will be in less. I agree that people will tend to overestimate their working from home %, but it will still happen of course.

Then a few that are going to permanently work from home, save for the odd day here and there. Either because their employer has agreed they can do so, or because their employer has instructed them to.


What is not clear is the extent to which the newly freed up office accommodation, presumably going cheap, is refilled by corporate expansion and/or new segments of industry. I suspect that post Brexit their will be a significant increase in some types of financial service, for example. But this will take a few years to fill up the vacant space.

Certainly locally there's no let-up in demand for housing. I can't really see why someone would *want* to live somewhere like Letchworth if they're not going to be commuting, when they could be much, much, further out and have a considerably better standard of living.

Same in St Albans. Mostly London dwellers moving out, wanting more space and a bit of countryside, but not wanting to be too far / too expensive from the London action. One has just moved in on our road, now a couple of others doing the same elsewhere. 20-40 miles from London with a decent late train service seem to fit that bill. Of course the pubs are better in St Albans...

 

[jon0844]

I have a feeling it would most likely be new-build units replacing 455s, and I could see that happening with 313s too although since they operate in slightly more 'rural' areas there is no huge pressure to have new build. Of course there will also be other things like 458s going spare but they've been a little neglected as of late so I can't see them being used until their design life is up.

I would have thought it would make sense to make more 700s and 717s to replace 365s and the 313s, although I am not sure about maintenance. The 717s aren't maintained by Siemens are they? Isn't that down to Hornsey? And if Three Bridges is to capacity, could they fit in more 700s and 717s (or whatever variant they might be) there?

I think what will happen is there will be a pause before any decision is made given the slow return to anywhere near normal levels of usage.

If more 700s were made (it seems unlikely existing units will get upgraded from 8 to 12 car though), I wonder if there would be any sense in building them with a slightly modified interior? The thing is, I am not sure it is very easy to keep stock in the right locations and they'd then get mixed up with the current fleet - as they move around from TL to GN and down to Kent all the time.

 

[southern442]

New build wouldn’t be on the table quickly enough, though. We’d be talking about a lead time of a couple of years minimum to procure, build and train staff (any new build would presumably be likely to be Aventra rather than Electrostar, or of course more Desiro City).

If demand stays suppressed for a while then it might be possible to get rid of the 313, 365 *and* 455 fleets, and then top it up with a new built a few years down the line. However this won’t work if there’s a quicker restoration in demand.

I don't think that Southern seem to be in enough of a rush to get rid of them that quickly. Plans haven't been set in stone for the 455's for a while and as far as I am aware there aren't even any official time frames for getting rid of the 313s. 365s are obviously easy to replace, you might be able to do one or the other with cascading with regards to Southern's fleet, but it seems to me that they'd rather wait a while before replacing anything.

I suppose 458s could be an option, however I’m not sure what this would offer over 365s.

As an aside, could the 458s be easily made AC-ready and be used to displace the ScotRail 318/320 fleet?

The key advantage is that 458s are already third-rail equipped! Plus they also have gangways and can be made into 10-car formations. But as much as I have a soft spot for the 458s and it would be nice to see Southern's suburban services become entirely 10-car, I can't see it happening.

With regards to your second point, they certainly could (and I believe they wanted to a few years back) but now I can only see it ending in tears a la 442 reintroduction. Plus I'm no Scotrail expert but I don't think the 318s and 320s are doing too badly at the moment, when compared with the 334's. What could be more likely, incidentally, is 365's going over, as they wouldn't need a conversion. But what I think is MOST likely would be next franchise they all get replaced by a common fleet (boooooo!)

 

[Aictos]

I would have thought it would make sense to make more 700s and 717s to replace 365s and the 313s, although I am not sure about maintenance. The 717s aren't maintained by Siemens are they? Isn't that down to Hornsey? And if Three Bridges is to capacity, could they fit in more 700s and 717s (or whatever variant they might be) there?

I think what will happen is there will be a pause before any decision is made given the slow return to anywhere near normal levels of usage.

If more 700s were made (it seems unlikely existing units will get upgraded from 8 to 12 car though), I wonder if there would be any sense in building them with a slightly modified interior? The thing is, I am not sure it is very easy to keep stock in the right locations and they'd then get mixed up with the current fleet - as they move around from TL to GN and down to Kent all the time.

Bearing in mind that Southern seem to run the 455s in a semi permanent 8 car formation and they have 46 Class 455s, you would need a minimum of 23 Class 700s in a 8 car formation which would be enough to dispose of the Class 455s but you would need a additional 3 Class 700s for maintenance which is how Great Northern replaced their 44 Class 313s with 25 Class 717s.

Such a fleet would bring in much improved dwell times, toilets and the capacity of being able to take far more passengers then the existing stock.

 

[Fincra5]

Bearing in mind that Southern seem to run the 455s in a semi permanent 8 car formation and they have 46 Class 455s, you would need a minimum of 23 Class 700s in a 8 car formation which would be enough to dispose of the Class 455s but you would need a additional 3 Class 700s for maintenance which is how Great Northern replaced their 44 Class 313s with 25 Class 717s.

Such a fleet would bring in much improved dwell times, toilets and the capacity of being able to take far more passengers then the existing stock.

They're not as intensively used, so not sure how many of the 46 are in use (Normal Timetable). Most are 4 Car at weekends (Well sat) too..

 

[Aictos]

They're not as intensively used, so not sure how many of the 46 are in use (Normal Timetable). Most are 4 Car at weekends (Well sat) too..

Weekends they may well be 4 car operations but weekdays they are certainly 8 car operations, the reason I was referring to 8 car operation was that it would also provide space for passengers to social distance more then a 4 car would and when business picks up then a 8 car would be better then a 4 car.

 

[physics34]

I don't think that Southern seem to be in enough of a rush to get rid of them that quickly. Plans haven't been set in stone for the 455's for a while and as far as I am aware there aren't even any official time frames for getting rid of the 313s. 365s are obviously easy to replace, you might be able to do one or the other with cascading with regards to Southern's fleet, but it seems to me that they'd rather wait a while before replacing anything.


The key advantage is that 458s are already third-rail equipped! Plus they also have gangways and can be made into 10-car formations. But as much as I have a soft spot for the 458s and it would be nice to see Southern's suburban services become entirely 10-car, I can't see it happening.

With regards to your second point, they certainly could (and I believe they wanted to a few years back) but now I can only see it ending in tears a la 442 reintroduction. Plus I'm no Scotrail expert but I don't think the 318s and 320s are doing too badly at the moment, when compared with the 334's. What could be more likely, incidentally, is 365's going over, as they wouldn't need a conversion. But what I think is MOST likely would be next franchise they all get replaced by a common fleet (boooooo!)

The only thing currently set in stone is that the 313 and 455s are only leased til the end of this year... of course this can change.

 

[swt_passenger]

With regards to your second point, they certainly could (and I believe they wanted to a few years back) but now I can only see it ending in tears a la 442 reintroduction. Plus I'm no Scotrail expert but I don't think the 318s and 320s are doing too badly at the moment, when compared with the 334's. What could be more likely, incidentally, is 365's going over, as they wouldn't need a conversion. But what I think is MOST likely would be next franchise they all get replaced by a common fleet (boooooo!)

[458/5 > AC]
IIRC back around 2006/7 when they were first proposed to be off-leased by SWT, Roger Ford did an article saying that while AC conversion was theoretically possible, it would have been very expensive as there was no preparation work done to the units during build, eg wiring, brackets etc. He wrote that they’d been touted around all over the place as potential AC units, with no interest.

I think in more recent discussions it’s always been thought “possible but highly unlikely”...

 

[D365]

[458/5 > AC]
IIRC back around 2006/7 when they were first proposed to be off-leased by SWT, Roger Ford did an article saying that while AC conversion was theoretically possible, it would have been very expensive as there was no preparation work done to the units during build, eg wiring, brackets etc. He wrote that they’d been touted around all over the place as potential AC units, with no interest.

I think in more recent discussions it’s always been thought “possible but highly unlikely”...

Converting the 458/5s to AC is about as likely as converting the 365s back to DC.

 

[swt_passenger]

Converting the 458/5s to AC is about as likely as converting the 365s back to DC.

Yes I think you’re onto something there...