What is Reform's "core support", though?
The whole "Stop the Boats" mantra has, to a certain extent, largely been replaced by the "Stop the Boats and Re-migrate" rhetoric from Restore Britain. The hardcore racist types will think that Reform isn't going far enough, while Reformwantsneeds people of colour who were born here on its side (Zia Yusuf/Suella Braverman) in order to remain vaguely relevant.
Reform's biggest problem is that its major aim (Brexit) has been achieved. Collectively we voted to leave the EU and now we're no longer in the EU: job done. The Brexit/Reform Party's biggest problem now is that it didn't achieve the result that the racist element really wanted and now there's a more extreme party that promises to steal its thunder.
I think that it may even be worse than that, Burnham has said they we should work towards being closer to the EU and whist the most recent poll has Labour lower than the week before, they are still up from where they were when that was announced.
Reform on the other hand are down over the week and down compared to then.
Add to that the significant reduction in Reform engagement due to a Russian data centre being taken out by Ukraine and the Reform echo chamber may well be starting to feel quieter than it did before.