Reform UK discussion

[Bald Rick]

What odds are the bookies giving on Farage winning this by-election, but losing the next one, when it's called in a couple of months' time, because by then, Reform could be in serious trouble over their finances,

NF is now 1/50 to win this election, ie a 2% chance that he doesn’t.

No odds on the next election, as that isn’t planned (yet).


He is also 5/1 to be next PM, just a shade behind the Wolf at 4/1.

 

[contrex]

but his physog stared back at me from all quarters of the Tendring peninsula.

You remind me of the big sign at Liverpool Street that said 'HARWICH FOR THE CONTINENT' which periodically had 'FRINTON FOR THE INCONTINENT' added underneath. BR used to remove this and people used to write it again.

 

[brad465]

I walked from Harwich International to Clacton-on-Sea today right through the heart of the constituency (17.5 miles if anyone cares). Great Oakley was particularly Faragist - ten garden posters/wall displays with "SEND THEM A MESSAGE" prominent - but his physog stared back at me from all quarters of the Tendring peninsula. Yet everyone I met en route was friendly and welcoming, from the dog walkers to the shopkeepers to the beach dwellers. I guess you can never judge a book by the cover, and hope that come Thursday enough people locally choose to send him a message too.

THC

[Pic: a rusting bus shelter adjacent to a Reform poster, Little Clacton]

What will be telling is the turnout; if it's a record low, or close to record low, for a by-election, this will highlight any disapproval for the stunt at least as much as Binface's vote share. In the 2024 election, he got 46% of the vote, so should a by-election result from the investigation, it's not unreasonable to think the decline in his approval ratings combined with a strong tactical vote could see him lose that one.

 

[edwin_m]

Bot. A modern buzz word. Is that what people call someone to avoid admitting a point is hard to counter. Straight from the Reddit Dictionary. I find it absolutely incredible that a lot of people cannot understand why Reform is so popular. If so many people are in favour of Reform, why is it so hard to accept that people are fed up of the status quo. And for saying that, I am surely a bot to someone who disagrees.

I don't think people here are disagreeing that a lot of the support for Reform is because people are fed up with the status quo. It's probably a more common reason than actually supporting Reform's policies.

 

[jupiter]

Reform have policies? I haven seen or heard anything other than grievances.

 

[jon0844]

Bot. A modern buzz word. Is that what people call someone to avoid admitting a point is hard to counter. Straight from the Reddit Dictionary. I find it absolutely incredible that a lot of people cannot understand why Reform is so popular. If so many people are in favour of Reform, why is it so hard to accept that people are fed up of the status quo. And for saying that, I am surely a bot to someone who disagrees.

Bots are real, and the one significant thing is that they can't vote.

They can and do steer narratives online and are very effective at getting people angry, or overreacting to issues that have been made to sound like the biggest problems in their life, but when it comes to the crunch they're useless.

Their effectiveness is essentially helping people believe they're not a minority but the silent majority who are now speaking out and 'proving' that their views are shared by everyone else.

Clearly other political parties do it. So does the likes of the fossil fuel companies (look at all the posts from people against solar panels and wind farms, or EVs) and of course companies that pay influencers and sponsor publishers for advertorials.

Bots are just another form of advertising but with some rather horrific side effects when their posts can incite riots. What's worse is they're being told what to say by leaders who have plausible deniability throughout.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 10 Aug 2026 ==

Reform have policies? I haven seen or heard anything other than grievances.

Reform has in it's various guises convinced a certain amount of the population that all their problems stem from an invasion of people that don't look like them.

That asylum seeker who gets less than a tenner per week and sleeps in a bunk bed is the issue (of course they're told they get cars, houses, iPhones and huge TVs and [add anything nice you think a Reform voter wants but likely can't afford to maximise outrage] too).

Don't let people see the services that have been cut over the years (including social care and mental health), the ineffectiveness of the police and justice system, politicians doing budgetary things that leads to mortgages rising many hundreds or thousands per year, poor regulation allowing for the cost of some services going through the roof with beyond inflation price rises, energy costs impacted by the decisions made by a man baby on the other side of the Atlantic who Reform want to get closer to... The list goes on.

No, it's that brown person who is taking your money and laughing at you. They're living the best life and you would be too if they were rounded up, put in a camp and deported along with all the others who have settled here. Heck, deport the ones born here too. This is a white Christian nation ....

 

[Harpo]

There’s also a beer festival in Clacton this month. Not sure about the ID of the ventriloquists doll in their logo?


Link to photo of logo showing man with a strangely familiar looking ventroloquist’s doll.

 

[scarby]

Bot. A modern buzz word. Is that what people call someone to avoid admitting a point is hard to counter. Straight from the Reddit Dictionary. I find it absolutely incredible that a lot of people cannot understand why Reform is so popular. If so many people are in favour of Reform, why is it so hard to accept that people are fed up of the status quo. And for saying that, I am surely a bot to someone who disagrees.

It isn't hard at all, but doing that doesn't mean that one should then side with a party that wants to scrap plans for sustainable living - in other words, progress - and fielded a candidate who called Putin and Jimmy Savile "working class heroes" and said the latter was a "role model of mine".

These are not decent people and I don't want them in charge of anything.

 

[Polarbear]

There are definitely a lot of people who want to see a change from the “status quo”. Some of those will see an emerging political “party”, that bears the name “Reform” as being different, and a group of people who will do things differently.

Reform are good at playing to this group of people, by affirming that yes, they’ll do things differently & end said status quo. What is much less clear though is how they will go about doing so.

Another thing Reform are good at deflecting away from, is that they are a right wing “party”. Farage in particular has cultivated this “man of the people” persona, and “anti-establishment”, when in truth, he’s neither of those things.

To an extent, all political parties use similar tactics, but Reform have very much tailored their pitch at disaffected voters who want change.

 

[Robin Edwards]

It isn't hard at all, but doing that doesn't mean that one should then side with a party that wants to scrap plans for sustainable living - in other words, progress - and fielded a candidate who called Putin and Jimmy Savile "working class heroes" and said the latter was a "role model of mine".

These are not decent people and I don't want them in charge of anything.

I see many Reform voters as arsonists - ever the victims and so unhappy with the world that they're willing to burn their villages down to prove it. Then blame others fo the mess they leave.

 

[martin butler]

What i find hard to understand is how come people are not seeing though reform, we had right wing policy under the Tories for 14 years, during which social spending was cut to the bone, and that's why things are still tough, we didn't build enough affordable homes, we let the market control prices,

Many of those in Reforms ranks were conservative ministers during that time, and do people honestly think they are the answer?

I hate to say this but we have allowed the racists to become emboldened again, see they never went away, they hid, they became respectable, outwardly, but underneath, they still held the same views, had the same hatred, and now they have the perfect excuse to have it on full view, they're not hiding it,

I blame weak politicians of all parties, the Tories didn't control right wing extremism, because secretly they were scared to, or knew the truth feelings of their members, Labour could have brought in stricter controls, but chose the wrong target, and you have to wonder why? why ban Palestine action, but not right wing groups who are now instigating protests that are leading to violence,

 

[S101]

What i find hard to understand is how come people are not seeing though reform, we had right wing policy under the Tories for 14 years,

Did we......? Did we actually?

 

[styles]

Did we......? Did we actually?

Yes, we did.

 

[lewesroad]

Did we......? Did we actually?

You clearly think that we didn’t. Would you like to explain why?

 

[edwin_m]

Compared to what both the Tories and Reform are proposing now, it's arguable that the 2010-2024 government was relatively moderate.

 

[AlterEgo]

Compared to what both the Tories and Reform are proposing now, it's arguable that the 2010-2024 government was relatively moderate.

Indeed but that is mostly the result of the Overton Window shifting a few degrees rather than the idea that 2010-24 was "not right wing" in its own time.

 

[contrex]

You clearly think that we didn’t. Would you like to explain why?

Yes, @S101, that would be nice. Locate money where mouth is located, please!

 

[jon0844]

Approximately one hour to go before the result in Clacton and Farage has already decided it's time to go. He won't be around for the declaration (where he strongly believes he's won by a landslide) and that might be the last they see of him in Clacton now his job is done and the residents are of no more use to him.

Nigel Farage is correct not to attend the Clacton by-election declaration, says Reform UK spokesperson and local councillor Jaymey McIvor.

"He doesn't want to be demeaned or humiliated, and I make him right in that," he tells BBC News.

"To demean or humiliate the winning candidate in any election, demeans and humiliates all of those people that have taken part in the process... I think it's obviously the right decision," he says.

Asked if he was aware of this decision beforehand, McIvor says that "as a local councillor" he is not told the party leader's movements "all the time".

"I very much hope in a few hours he'll be sent back the House of Commons to continue to serve without what could have been a very pathetic attempt by some absolute nobodies to try and degrade what is a very important democratic process."

 

[GusB]

Approximately one hour to go before the result in Clacton and Farage has already decided it's time to go. He won't be around for the declaration (where he strongly believes he's won by a landslide) and that might be the last they see of him in Clacton now his job is done and the residents are of no more use to him.

"He doesn't want to be demeaned or humiliated"

That suggests that it hasn't gone as well as expected. Much as I'd love Binface to win, I expected Farage to win; maybe it's really close.

 

[jon0844]

Farage seems to be very good at not turning up to things.

Obviously he can make any event in the USA though.

 

[GusB]

Nigel Farage returns as MP, winning Clacton by-election that major parties boycotted

Reform UK says police told Farage not to attend the declaration - the BBC understands that is not the case.

www.bbc.co.uk

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has received 22,239 votes in the Clacton by-election that he triggered by stepping down as an MP.

This is enough votes for him to win the election.

9455 votes for the Count, though...

 

[SuspectUsual]

He’s a coward, and Reform tell bare faced lies

Nothing new then

 

[Stathern Jc]

I would be interested to know how many more lost deposits there were here than the previous highest.
Will be very surprising f the deposit isn't increased substantially from £500 in the next year.

 

[oldman]

Disappointing that his vote went up from 2024, as he will no doubt tell us repeatedly. I still would rather Binface had not stood and given Farage a semi-credible opponent to beat.

 

[JGurney]

Farage got 22239 votes and Clacton's electorate seems to be 75959* potential voters. So despite being the only non-frivolous and non-fringe candidate it seems Farage was supported by only 29.3% of the electorate.

The number of votes he gained increased by 4.8% compared with 2024. However in 2024 he was probably the most right-wing candidate. This time, disregarding frivolous and single-issue candidates, he was probably the most left-wing candidate on offer.

* https://boundarycommissionforenglan...-and-composition-eastern/#lg_clacton-cc-75959

"Clacton CC: 75959"

 

[pokemonsuper9]

With turnout of 44.37% that means that 28.10% of the electorate voted for Farage, I assume they must like elections so much they voted for Farage so they get another one.
The true test will be the second by-election where the rest of the big parties compete.

 

[JamesT]

With turnout of 44.37% that means that 28.10% of the electorate voted for Farage, I assume they must like elections so much they voted for Farage so they get another one.
The true test will be the second by-election where the rest of the big parties compete.

You think 10% of the electorate will decide to sign a petition to have another election?

 

[SuspectUsual]

You think 10% of the electorate will decide to sign a petition to have another election?

Absolutely

If they can vote for a bin they can sign (online) a recall petition

 

[pokemonsuper9]

You think 10% of the electorate will decide to sign a petition to have another election?

Surely, 11.95% of the electorate voted for Binface.

 

[edwin_m]

Farage per BBC: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c5y40d11zewt?post=asset:8dd316db-07c2-495d-8f1e-fea758837166#post

I'm damned if I'm going to stand on a stage having won a resounding victory, a ringing endorsement of all that I've tried to fight for and you've tried to fight for and be demeaned and humiliated by nobodies.

Seems to me that's already happened - over 10000 people voted for a nobody in preference to Farage.