Reform UK discussion

[Class73Electro]

Just watched GB


I do wonder if Reform are in a bit of a bind. They don't exist without Farage, but they can't win with him, because a big chunk of people see him as being toxic

It does feel like Reform exits purely just to give NF a box to talk from

 

[styles]

In the Gorton and Denton by-election compared to the General Election on 4 July 2024 the vote share changes are Green +28% Labour -25% Reform UK +15% Conservatives -9%. The 48% by-election turnout is about the same as at the General Election. The switch compared to the General Election is almost entirely Conservative to Reform UK and Labour to Green. There is no shift from Labour to Reform UK.

The message from this Gorton and Denton by-election won by the Green Party and the Senedd Caerphilly by-election in November 2025 won by Plaid Cymru is many voters will switch parties to block Reform UK from winning. These are not good results for Reform UK.

Reform UK clearly attracts some Tory voters especially in strongly working class constituencies but I expect their attempts to attract Tory voters will be a lot more mixed in well to do Conservative constituencies. Supporting fracking is not a recipe for attracting a lot of voters in the traditionally Conservative shires.

I would always be very cautious about extrapolating single seat by-elections to a 650-seat general election.

The constituencies the current constituency is formed from have been Labour for decades. If they'd been joined together since day dot, and we extrapolated the results into a national parliament, we'd have had a Labour government for nearly 100 years. It doesn't represent the whole country at all.

 

[Harpo]

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage said the claims raised questions "about the integrity of the democratic process in predominantly Muslim areas", saying the election was "a victory for sectarian voting and cheating".

So, firstly the party of division wails about ‘sectarian’ voting, er…..

Second, straight from the Trump playbook, Farage takes no accountability, blames everyone else and claims the election is rigged against him.

Starmer accepts 'voters are impatient for change' as Greens celebrate 'seismic' by-election win

Hannah Spencer, a 34-year-old plumber, wins the Gorton and Denton by-election, with Reform coming in second and Labour in third.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[alex397]

So, firstly the party of division wails about ‘sectarian’ voting, er…..

Second, straight from the Trump playbook, Farage takes no accountability, blames everyone else and claims the election is rigged against him.

Starmer accepts 'voters are impatient for change' as Greens celebrate 'seismic' by-election win

Hannah Spencer, a 34-year-old plumber, wins the Gorton and Denton by-election, with Reform coming in second and Labour in third.

www.bbc.co.uk

Reform don’t really use dog whistles any more, they seem to use actual whistles. Doubting the democratic process because it’s a ‘predominantly Muslim’ area…. That is nothing but racism, surely?

 

[35B]

Yes having spent years working in elections, doing everything from postal vote counting to running polling stations, I'm inclined to agree on the postal votes front.

The current system is basically anybody can apply for a postal vote. I have had one for many years but I have a legitimate reason, which is that if I'm working all day on a polling station, I don't have the chance to vote without a postal vote. But the numbers keep increasing and while I appreciate we all have busy lives, polling stations are open 7am-10pm and very few people would not have the time to vote. Disabilities, being abroad for work on election day etc all make sense, but it should in my view require a justification. If somebody registers for a postal vote for say 3 elections on the trot with the reason that they have a hospital appointment it should be queried. If a whole household registers for postal votes, for anything other than a holiday in one election, that should raise alarm bells.

I'm all for increasing accessibility in elections (and we have everything you can imagine in place at polling stations from coloured overlays for people with visual stress, to strict procedures if a voter needs a member of staff to help them vote). But this shouldn't come from a blanket policy allowing anybody to effectively bypass the normal safeguards in place.

I have a postal vote, and have done since routine postal voting was introduced about 20 years ago. At the time, I regularly worked away or was travelling, so unable to be confident of being near the polling station during opening times. The previous rules, by contrast, were extremely restrictive and would have meant that there were some elections I simply could not have voted in

The requirements for registering a postal vote have become more robust over time, and the attested fraud levels have reduced.

"Family voting" is more of a challenge and, as the examples show, exhibits in a number of ways.

 

[SuspectUsual]

Is there any data from polling on the proportion of the Reform vote in Gorton & Denton that would have voted for Rupert Lowe's party had they stood a candidate?

 

[BeijingDave]

Reform don’t really use dog whistles any more, they seem to use actual whistles. Doubting the democratic process because it’s a ‘predominantly Muslim’ area…. That is nothing but racism, surely?

Er, no... if rules are being broken, people shouldn't be scared to call it out by the possibility of being called 'racist'.

It's your type of thinking (which was institutionally entrenched) that facilitated grooming gangs.

NB I am a LibDem and Remain voter, before you beat me with the 'racist' stick too.

 

[Bantamzen]

Let's be honest here, did anyone expect anything less than screaming and wailing from Reform where they did not return an overwhelming win? As mentioned above, it's classic a MAGA playbook move, the playbook that Farage pretty much lives by these days. I'm sure in the coming weeks we'll see a lot more of this from him, even if some in his party are already acknowledging that complaints of family voting are unlikely to change the result. But that won't matter, Farage has the "evidence" he thinks he needs to make himself, and by proxy his party victims of a conspiracy. His hardcore supporters will lap it up and spill over onto social media, along with all the bots. Expect much more of the same in the run up to the local elections in May.

But what this result does show that Reform aren't necessarily the default position for disillusioned voters looking to give the big two a bloody nose. And frankly that is just good news, even if you're not a particular fan of the Greens and their policies, which I'm certainly not. And just as an aside I read that the Reform Party Chair David Bull thinks that Andy Burnham would have nailed the seat for Labour had he been allowed to run. It might just be a bit of post results mischief, but I do agree with him!

 

[alex397]

Er, no... if rules are being broken, people shouldn't be scared to call it out by the possibility of being called 'racist'.

It's your type of thinking (which was institutionally entrenched) that facilitated grooming gangs.

NB I am a LibDem and Remain voter, before you beat me with the 'racist' stick too.

Er… yes.
Would NF ever call out if there was dodgy votes in a “predominantly Christian” area? Don’t think so. It’s pure bigotry to relate religion and/or ethnicity to unsubstantiated claims of undemocratic behaviour.

You being a LibDem or Remain voter means nothing with your second point.

 

[martin butler]

As if to confirm what i said about uncontrolled media, and lies, so its started, I just saw a post on social media claiming the election was stolen, that it was rigged, claiming that Reform would have won it with 75% of the vote, we all know it's made up rubbish, but it will leave the gullible believing it, which is the idea behind it,

 

[SuspectUsual]

As if to confirm what i said about uncontrolled media, and lies, so its started, A post claiming the election was stolen, that it was rigged, claiming that Reform would have won it with 75% of the vote, we all know it's made up rubbish, but it will leave the gullible believing it, which is the idea behind it,

Who is saying that, and where?

 

[martin butler]

Who is saying that, and where?

I eddited my post, it was on social media not on here, i have since made that clear, you reacted before i had edited my post

 

[eotw]

I believe Farage playing the election fraud card from Trump's playbook is a mistake. He needs to distance himself from Trump as he is toxic to even more UK voters than Farage. Even if it is a fair criticism, which I doubt, it will be reinforce the notion that Farage is just Trump's stooge.

 

[martin butler]

I believe Farage playing the election fraud card from Trump's playbook is a mistake. He needs to distance himself from Trump as he is toxic to even more UK voters than Farage. Even if it is a fair criticism, which I doubt, it will be reinforce the notion that Farage is just Trump's stooge.

I don't think Farage is Trump's stooge, I would argue he's the billionaires stooge, its they who fund Trump, Bannon, Thiel , Miller, and the far right across europe its they who are pulling the strings, and every one of those right wing influencers are jumping to their tune.

 

[MP33]

Regarding Family voting. The majority was 4000. There would not have been enough of these voters, to change the result. From, a role dealing with telephone enquiries from a particular group. I can see how it came about. Although, it is an issue that has long since declined, to have any effect.

 

[Topological]

I don't think Farage is Trump's stooge, I would argue he's the billionaires stooge, its they who fund Trump, Bannon, Thiel , Miller, and the far right across europe its they who are pulling the strings, and every one of those right wing influencers are jumping to their tune.

People may be having fun at the moment, but the money will always go with the Conservatives. I suspect much of the support for Reform is just a reminder to the Conservatives to get their act together and not just assume Labour will throw power away.

It is also worth saying that the candidate in the election has clearly stated that he does not believe that there was an impact from family voting on the result. I suspect that people are using quotes selectively to build up a storm where there is not one.

There is also this on the BBC about family voting from the chairman of Reform:

Reform UK chair David Bull is the latest political figure to react to claims made overnight by election monitoring group Democracy Volunteers that they witnessed so-called family voting during the Gorton and Denton by-election (see our last post for more details).

Bull tells Radio 4's Today programme that family voting - where a family member is seen to be influencing somebody else's vote - is "illegal" and "should be stamped out".

When asked if he beleives this changed the outcome of the by-election result, he says: "If I'm being candid probably not."

"I think it’s really important that we stand back and look at all of this with cool, clear heads. We’ve all been up all night, and so any rash decision would be a bad decision, in my humble opinion."

Looking ahead to the May local elections, Bull says Reform are expecting to do "extremely well", and anticipate "a turquoise sea" of wins across the country.

 

[AlterEgo]

I eddited my post, it was on social media not on here, i have since made that clear, you reacted before i had edited my post

So it wasn't actually in the media, it was just someone saying it on social media?

 

[35B]

But what this result does show that Reform aren't necessarily the default position for disillusioned voters looking to give the big two a bloody nose. And frankly that is just good news, even if you're not a particular fan of the Greens and their policies, which I'm certainly not. And just as an aside I read that the Reform Party Chair David Bull thinks that Andy Burnham would have nailed the seat for Labour had he been allowed to run. It might just be a bit of post results mischief, but I do agree with him!

I don't - he'd have been an even bigger target for the Greens.

 

[AlterEgo]

I think Burnham dodged a bullet to be honest.

 

[Bantamzen]

I believe Farage playing the election fraud card from Trump's playbook is a mistake. He needs to distance himself from Trump as he is toxic to even more UK voters than Farage. Even if it is a fair criticism, which I doubt, it will be reinforce the notion that Farage is just Trump's stooge.

Farage is a one trick pony. He's using the Trump playbook because it's the only one he has, even if that playbook is starting to fall apart at the seams across the pond. Farage is relying solely on enough people believing that Trump is doing a good job and not turning the US into a banana republic to reach his end game of getting control of No.10. Once there (goodness forbid) he would engage in the same level of chaos Trump causes, whilst of course making sure he and his buddies would profit from a little insider knowledge the way Trump and his buddies do... allegedly...

I don't - he'd have been an even bigger target for the Greens.

I disagree, I think Burnham would have galvanised Labour supporters with a remit to go after Starmer and the leadership.

 

[35B]

Er, no... if rules are being broken, people shouldn't be scared to call it out by the possibility of being called 'racist'.

It's your type of thinking (which was institutionally entrenched) that facilitated grooming gangs.

NB I am a LibDem and Remain voter, before you beat me with the 'racist' stick too.

The claims about vote fraud were made after the polls closed, and appear not to have been reported to the returning officer while they could have made a difference. Even if true, they are not being made in good faith but as an attempt to undermine the credibility of the system.

Similar is true of the obsessive focus of the right on grooming gangs. There has been a problem with them, some of which is specific to certain communities and has been ignored by the authorities for a range of reasons. But grooming behaviour of vulnerable teens has happened in a number of forms, which have also been ignored far too often. The right have sought to focus the inquiry on just one aspect of the problem, and to weaponise it for their campaign of hate - despite other victims of grooming being really clear about the need for a wider reckoning.

 

[gg1]

I don't - he'd have been an even bigger target for the Greens.

It's highly likely significantly fewer Labour voters would have switched to Green if Burnham was the candidate. The national party dictating to the local party who can and cannot put themselves forward as a candidate is never a good look, especially when that candidate is locally popular.

 

[35B]

I disagree, I think Burnham would have galvanised Labour supporters with a remit to go after Starmer and the leadership.

Precisely why he'd have been a target - Polanski wants to take down Labour, not just Starmer. And don't forget, the story wasn't just about Burnham taking on a vacancy, but a vacancy being engineered for Burnham - something that is being lost sight of after that particular plan collapsed on itself.

In those circumstances, destroying the heir apparent would have been incredibly galvanising for the Green campaigners. And seeing how they've campaigned, given the special circumstances of a by-election, I think they'd have done it.

 

[Topological]

I disagree, I think Burnham would have galvanised Labour supporters with a remit to go after Starmer and the leadership.

It's highly likely significantly fewer Labour voters would have switched to Green if Burnham was the candidate. The national party dictating to the local party who can and cannot put themselves forward as a candidate is never a good look, especially when that candidate is locally popular.

Exactly.

If the Labour party candidate was also a protest vote against Starmer then I think that we would be waking to a very red Gorton and Denton.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 27 Feb 2026 ==

Precisely why he'd have been a target - Polanski wants to take down Labour, not just Starmer. And don't forget, the story wasn't just about Burnham taking on a vacancy, but a vacancy being engineered for Burnham - something that is being lost sight of after that particular plan collapsed on itself.

In those circumstances, destroying the heir apparent would have been incredibly galvanising for the Green campaigners. And seeing how they've campaigned, given the special circumstances of a by-election, I think they'd have done it.

True, but I honestly do not think that the Greens had a huge stay at home vote. Those who voted Green will comprise a percentage who wanted to vote Green, but will also comprise a percentage who wanted Labour to change in a more left-leaning direction.

I do not believe that many Green voters were simply "stop Reform".

 

[35B]

Exactly.

If the Labour party candidate was also a protest vote against Starmer then I think that we would be waking to a very red Gorton and Denton.

That assumes that the Green campaign was anti-Starmer. If Burnham had stood, the line would have been that there's no difference of note between Burnham and Starmer, and that for a genuinely left wing candidate who cares about the community (well, the bit of it that the Greens targeted), people needed to vote Green.

And the declaration last night would have been billed for weeks as a potential "Portillo moment".

 

[Topological]

That assumes that the Green campaign was anti-Starmer. If Burnham had stood, the line would have been that there's no difference of note between Burnham and Starmer, and that for a genuinely left wing candidate who cares about the community (well, the bit of it that the Greens targeted), people needed to vote Green.

And the declaration last night would have been billed for weeks as a potential "Portillo moment".

I strongly suspect that the Greens would not have had a strong enough platform for that to take hold.

Had Burnham stood the mainstream media would have latched onto this being the route to dispose Starmer. I doubt that the voice of the Greens would have done much to change that perception amongst anyone but the stronger Green voters.

We will never know either way.

 

[BeijingDave]

Er… yes.
Would NF ever call out if there was dodgy votes in a “predominantly Christian” area? Don’t think so. It’s pure bigotry to relate religion and/or ethnicity to unsubstantiated claims of undemocratic behaviour.

You being a LibDem or Remain voter means nothing with your second point.

Raised by election observers...

Reform UK reports by-election 'family voting' concerns to police

It comes after election observers raised concerns about "extremely high" levels of family voting.

www.bbc.com

It's an issue. And it's not happening to anywhere near the same extent in 'predominantly Christian' areas (see link) is it?

Family voting was effectively made illegal through the Ballot Secrecy Act 2023, which made it a criminal offence to be in or near a polling booth with another person in order to influence them to vote in a particular way.
Democracy Volunteers director John Ault issued a statement after polls had closed on Thursday, saying observers had seen "the highest levels of family voting at any election in our 10 year history of observing elections in the UK".
He said: "We rarely issue a report on the night of an election, but the data we have collected today on family voting, when compared to other recent by-elections, is extremely high.
"In the other recent Westminster parliamentary by-election in Runcorn and Helsby we saw family voting in 12% of polling stations, affecting 1% of voters.

 

[35B]

Raised by election observers...

Reform UK reports by-election 'family voting' concerns to police

It comes after election observers raised concerns about "extremely high" levels of family voting.

www.bbc.com

It's an issue. And it's not happening in 'predominantly Christian' areas (see link) is it?

Family voting was effectively made illegal through the Ballot Secrecy Act 2023, which made it a criminal offence to be in or near a polling booth with another person in order to influence them to vote in a particular way.
Democracy Volunteers director John Ault issued a statement after polls had closed on Thursday, saying observers had seen "the highest levels of family voting at any election in our 10 year history of observing elections in the UK".
He said: "We rarely issue a report on the night of an election, but the data we have collected today on family voting, when compared to other recent by-elections, is extremely high.
"In the other recent Westminster parliamentary by-election in Runcorn and Helsby we saw family voting in 12% of polling stations, affecting 1% of voters.

Raised by “election observers” after the vote, and without challenging the illegal behaviour. That is not behaviour designed to support fair voting, but to be used to undermine the credibility of the vote.

 

[BeijingDave]

To be honest, people like you and Alex make me embarrassed to be of the centre-left.

 

[Harpo]

The best outcome from this election will be a heightened focus on guaranteeing that all electoral rules were observed at polling stations. It’ll also leave Farage to find other ‘issues’ to blame*.


(* He’ll never admit he got anything wrong - Trump playbook rules.)