Reform UK discussion

[Tezza1978]

Am very concerned by the rise of Reform however I will say that the opinion polls at this stage of the election cycle are all over the place. An election is also probably 4 years 10 months away (July 2029)

I don't for one second think support for Reform is at 35% based on one poll quoted in the i - a newspaper that since a change of ownership is clearly pushing pro -reform propaganda alongside the usual stuff from the Express, Mail and Telegraph. True Reform support is probably only in the early 20's , maybe maximum 25-26%. Given the age/class dynamic of their support I find it hard to believe they will ever go much higher than that.

However - if votes really do splinter among multiple parties, Green, LD, Magic Grandpa's new party its conceivable Farage could become PM with 26% of the vote in a minority government. That to me creates a constitutional crisis as the legitimacy of that government under the ridiculous FPTP system will be come under extremely heavy fire, particularly given the damage Farage could do in coalition with a rump Tory party who have say 80 seats.

A few other beliefs I have:

- if the polling is still similar in 2 years time - Starmer should announce that to represent Britain fairly we need to move to PR and push the legislation through, This would be very popular with most parties and as Farage has said he is pro-PR he would find it very hard to criticise it without looking ridiculous. Starmer needs to do everything he can to avoid this country falling under Reform control.
- Badenoch is toast and a more competent Tory leader (even the vile Jenrick) will splinter some of Reform's support, reducing the likelihood of them gaining power. They may even bring Boris back (I can't stand him, appalling person but could stomach him if it stopped Farage)
-Trump is in trouble for all sorts of reasons and the blowback will hit Farage too
- In the unlikely event Farage could make it to no 10 the uproar from the unions when he tries to ram policies through to reduce worker rights.... and the public backlash will make the Poll tax riots look like a quiet country picnic. I could see all out strikes from all the major unions, 100,000s on the streets, economic chaos and the government being brought down within 6 months. We aren't the US and aren't stuck with a government if confidence collapses. Some of the new Reform lot would very quickly switch sides back to the Tories......

 

[Tazi Hupefi]

I think it is quite likely there will be an early election, I've never quite seen so much adversity and hostility towards a ruling political party, and worryingly, towards the prime minister as an individual, both from the media and large sections of the public. I don't think Labour will be able to continue much longer unless they start delivering some pretty fundamental results on the issues in the headlines.

For the first time in decades, I am fully anticipating violence and mass disorder if the public don't start seeing meaningful and rapid changes with the immigration situation. It has become a national crisis that is uniting parts of society not previously seen together. Whether it really is a crisis or not is academic, enough people feel that it is one, and the Musk/Trump world is an even more unstable dimension.

I do wonder if it will culminate in something like promising a national referendum on leaving the ECHR by one or several parties desperate to win the next election and curb civil unrest.

 

[Tezza1978]

I think it is quite likely there will be an early election, I've never quite seen so much adversity and hostility towards a ruling political party, and worryingly, towards the prime minister as an individual, both from the media and large sections of the public. I don't think Labour will be able to continue much longer unless they start delivering some pretty fundamental results on the issues in the headlines.

For the first time in decades, I am fully anticipating violence and mass disorder if the public don't start seeing meaningful and rapid changes with the immigration situation. It has become a national crisis that is uniting parts of society not previously seen together. Whether it really is a crisis or not is academic, enough people feel that it is one, and the Musk/Trump world is an even more unstable dimension.

I do wonder if it will culminate in something like promising a national referendum on leaving the ECHR by one or several parties desperate to win the next election and curb civil unrest.

Absolute fantasy stuff. Zero chance of an early election. Screaming people outside hotels and painting roundabouts with St George's flags is going to be rightly ignored.

Its galling but also hilarious that Reform supporters are very open about demanding a new election after 1 year for "democracy", setting up petitions, threatening civil unrest ....yet an advisory referendum 52%-48% for Brexit is the "will of the people" and needs to never be reversed from now until the end of time.....

 

[Tazi Hupefi]

Absolute fantasy stuff. Zero chance of an early election. Screaming people outside hotels and painting roundabouts with St George's flags is going to be rightly ignored.

Its galling but also hilarious that Reform supporters are very open about demanding a new election after 1 year for "democracy", setting up petitions, threatening civil unrest ....yet an advisory referendum 52%-48% for Brexit is the "will of the people" and needs to never be reversed from now until the end of time.....

The mass disorder and violence doesn't seem to have even started yet. The flags and screaming people as you put it, is simply the steam coming out of a kettle. At some point, the kettle will become a pressure cooker and it will inevitably explode. That is the trajectory that I believe the UK is on at the moment.

Looking down and tutting at people painting and hanging the flags is ignorant, dangerous and wrong. A lot of these people will escalate in time, especially if they feel they're being sneered at.

Tinderbox comes to mind.

I am concerned that some people don't seem to appreciate that this is the reality. People I've worked with and known for many years, who I would consider very reasonable and pragmatic, people with previously no hard or fixed views one way or the other have transformed. Visit a GP surgery, and listen to what people in the waiting room are talking about. Listen to neighbours etc. There is genuine hatred towards firstly, the boats and hotels, followed by the Labour party.

Young people, in particular, seem even more polarised than the adults - I believe support for Reform for young adults is high.

 

[OhNoAPacer]

The mass disorder and violence doesn't seem to have even started yet. The flags and screaming people as you put it, is simply the steam coming out of a kettle. At some point, the kettle will become a pressure cooker and it will inevitably explode. That is the trajectory that I believe the UK is on at the moment.

Tinderbox comes to mind.

I am concerned that some people don't seem to appreciate that this is the reality. People I've worked with and known for many years, who I would consider very reasonable and pragmatic, people with previously no hard or fixed views one way or the other have transformed. Visit a GP surgery, and listen to what people in the waiting room are talking about. Listen to neighbours etc. There is genuine hatred towards firstly, the boats and hotels, followed by the Labour party.

Young people, in particular, seem even more polarised than the adults - I believe support for Reform for young adults is high.

And the beneficiaries of hatred are the people who stored it. They could have talked rationally about issues around migration and asylum but instead they used deliberately provocative language about invasions and 'not people like us'. They have been backed up by sections of the media so that now it is albeit impossible to do anything rationally without being called unpatriotic. Those who say they have easy answers to complicated issues are very dangerous.

 

[Tezza1978]

Looking down and tutting at people painting and hanging the flags is ignorant, dangerous and wrong. A lot of these people will escalate in time, especially if they feel they're being sneered at.

I'm not looking down on anyone who wants to fly our country's flag. Far from it.

However, when some people are scrawling red crosses on Islamic centres with the words "Christ is King" or red crosses on Chinese takeaways with racial slurs then I will look down on them.

As they are ignorant, racist scum.

The "support" for Reform among the under 25s is at around 10% so with respect you are talking utter nonsense. A few angry young males with a fixation on Andrew Tate and "owning" women is not an element of society who's views should be "respected"

 

[weeklycommuter]

The mass disorder and violence doesn't seem to have even started yet. The flags and screaming people as you put it, is simply the steam coming out of a kettle. At some point, the kettle will become a pressure cooker and it will inevitably explode. That is the trajectory that I believe the UK is on at the moment.

Looking down and tutting at people painting and hanging the flags is ignorant, dangerous and wrong. A lot of these people will escalate in time, especially if they feel they're being sneered at.

Tinderbox comes to mind.

I am concerned that some people don't seem to appreciate that this is the reality. People I've worked with and known for many years, who I would consider very reasonable and pragmatic, people with previously no hard or fixed views one way or the other have transformed. Visit a GP surgery, and listen to what people in the waiting room are talking about. Listen to neighbours etc. There is genuine hatred towards firstly, the boats and hotels, followed by the Labour party.

Young people, in particular, seem even more polarised than the adults - I believe support for Reform for young adults is high.

The Labour MP for Bassetlaw says that people crossing the Channel in small boats is the number one concern for her constituents.

Asylum seekers top issue in Notts area with 'tiny number' of them

The MP for the area says 'we have to stop those boats' to shift the focus onto other issues

www.nottinghampost.com

The area of Nottinghamshire with 'tiny number' of asylum seekers - but where small boats is the No 1 issue
The MP for the area says 'we have to stop those boats' to shift the focus onto other issues
31 AUG 2025

A Nottinghamshire MP says tackling the number of people crossing the Channel in small boats is the top issue for her area, despite it having a "tiny number" of asylum seekers. "We have to stop those boats," says the Labour MP for Bassetlaw Jo White, despite representing a landlocked constituency.

"I've just done a summer survey of my constituents and 47% of people who responded to my survey said that dealing with illegal immigration was the number one priority. Quite a way behind was those other issues like the economy and the NHS and defence. So I know that that's what I have to focus my energies on when I get back into Parliament."

 

[jon0844]

Heathrow sponsors a lounge at other major parties' conferences as well (Labour, Tory, SNP). It's nothing more than a clickbaity title ,which is unsurprising from the telegraph, to exaggerate Reform's standing with businesses and mjaor enterprises. I can't see the entire article as it is behind a paywall but if it doesn't state the truth that this lounge is there at other conferences then this type of journalism becomes quite dangerous.

It quite likely does, in about the fifteenth paragraph. People share links where the headline and sub-heading is all that matters. People usually won't even click the link, and if they do they sure as hell aren't reading it all before forwarding it on and liking it.

However, if they're called out on things they can easily point out that they did say and it isn't their fault if people misunderstood (even though there's really no story if you were just reporting that a company is sponsoring multiple parties - if anything it's just an advert at that point).

I've posted content in the past which has had loads of likes within a matter of minutes, and my review might be 3,000 words or more with an estimated read time of 5-6 minutes! You'll see that all the time, and sometimes it's just people liking my work and thinking they'll be nice to like something - and more often than not for political stories, it's bots.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 31 Aug 2025 ==

Am very concerned by the rise of Reform however I will say that the opinion polls at this stage of the election cycle are all over the place. An election is also probably 4 years 10 months away (July 2029)

I don't for one second think support for Reform is at 35% based on one poll quoted in the i - a newspaper that since a change of ownership is clearly pushing pro -reform propaganda alongside the usual stuff from the Express, Mail and Telegraph. True Reform support is probably only in the early 20's , maybe maximum 25-26%. Given the age/class dynamic of their support I find it hard to believe they will ever go much higher than that.

However - if votes really do splinter among multiple parties, Green, LD, Magic Grandpa's new party its conceivable Farage could become PM with 26% of the vote in a minority government. That to me creates a constitutional crisis as the legitimacy of that government under the ridiculous FPTP system will be come under extremely heavy fire, particularly given the damage Farage could do in coalition with a rump Tory party who have say 80 seats.

A few other beliefs I have:

- if the polling is still similar in 2 years time - Starmer should announce that to represent Britain fairly we need to move to PR and push the legislation through, This would be very popular with most parties and as Farage has said he is pro-PR he would find it very hard to criticise it without looking ridiculous. Starmer needs to do everything he can to avoid this country falling under Reform control.
- Badenoch is toast and a more competent Tory leader (even the vile Jenrick) will splinter some of Reform's support, reducing the likelihood of them gaining power. They may even bring Boris back (I can't stand him, appalling person but could stomach him if it stopped Farage)
-Trump is in trouble for all sorts of reasons and the blowback will hit Farage too
- In the unlikely event Farage could make it to no 10 the uproar from the unions when he tries to ram policies through to reduce worker rights.... and the public backlash will make the Poll tax riots look like a quiet country picnic. I could see all out strikes from all the major unions, 100,000s on the streets, economic chaos and the government being brought down within 6 months. We aren't the US and aren't stuck with a government if confidence collapses. Some of the new Reform lot would very quickly switch sides back to the Tories......

I still think Farage will stab everyone in the back at Reform and consider defecting to the Tories if he gets a chance at leading them into the next election.

If you look at the success in the council elections and then follow how many councillors have been in trouble, some being suspended and many resigning (more often than not because they didn't expect to win and have neither a clue as to what the job entails, or any desire to do any work), Reform's reputation may be worthless in a couple of years.

If Labour manages to turn things around a little with the boats and speeding up asylum claims, as well as reporting some good news (like the shipbuilding contract with Norway) then that will also do further harm.

No doubt there will be much more in-fighting over the coming years as some get a sniff of power, but Farage is only ever looking out for himself and will gladly throw everyone under a bus when the time comes.

 

[Bald Rick]

An election is also probably 4 years 10 months away (July 2029)

3 years and 10 months.

We are 4 years and 4 months from the 2030’s….

 

[jon0844]

Absolute fantasy stuff. Zero chance of an early election. Screaming people outside hotels and painting roundabouts with St George's flags is going to be rightly ignored.

Its galling but also hilarious that Reform supporters are very open about demanding a new election after 1 year for "democracy", setting up petitions, threatening civil unrest ....yet an advisory referendum 52%-48% for Brexit is the "will of the people" and needs to never be reversed from now until the end of time.....

School kids go back next week, the football season is fully underway, it's getting colder and windier, and soon it will get dark earlier. We didn't have the summer of protests that some people wanted, and I doubt we'll have an autumn or winter of protests either.

People will share online polls as proof we need to call an election, but that's not how things work. As you say, we can't have another referendum on something as important as EU membership, but we can just have a Twitter/X poll that is manipulated by Elon, proving the need to call an election.

It's only because immigration is pushed in everyone's face on the media (and in particular social media) that people suddenly believe it's the most important thing in their life.

That's not to say Labour doesn't need to find a way to speed up claim processing, while also finding a way to communicate better in the media to get people talking about other things. Come October 1st, the right wing press will be all in on the rise in energy costs, and we'll have everyone claiming it's down to net zero. Farage will talk about the need to drill for more oil and gas, including fracking etc.

Meanwhile, this week and so many other weeks has seen 80% of energy being green. At times less than 9% of our electricity generation has required the use of gas. We don't use coal anymore and haven't for a whole year. Companies like Octopus have had record sessions of free or negative priced electricity. Other energy suppliers do similar.

Why isn't Ed Miliband working to demonstrate all of these benefits, and help explain that you can save money on your bills thanks to the investment in wind, solar and battery storage? Why is it the likes of Farage able to constantly control the narrative that our electricity is expensive because we don't burn enough gas? It's the literal opposite. The way the market works means gas controls the prices. Because people don't want pylons put up, we can't move all that green energy around the country so wind farms are paid not to generate power - which IS mad - but that's not a reason to turn them off and use more gas.

Reform is not a party for the people. It's a party for the rich that can't get votes from the rich only (there aren't enough of them) so they have to focus on talking points that will get the poor to vote for them. Classic Nazi playbook tactics. (And Mike Godwin has already said it's okay to compare modern right-wing parties with the Nazis before anyone accuses me of invoking Godwin's Law).

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 31 Aug 2025 ==

Young people, in particular, seem even more polarised than the adults - I believe support for Reform for young adults is high.

This is the concerning thing. TikTok is absolutely full of propaganda that supports Reform, mostly indirectly but certainly turning the minds of young people who are usually quite tolerant and open minded until they get older.

Clearly it's the common saying that people aren't born racist or hateful, they learn it. It used to be from their parents, but now it's social media.

It cannot be understated just how effective the memes and video clips posted online are in changing mindsets, like the continual accusations that foreigners are here to rape children - and I've never seen so many people saying 'so you're okay with babies being raped?' when you call them out. It's that simple for some. You're for us or against. No in-between, no common ground.

If you can produce the stats to show it's mostly white people committing crimes, or how many people involved with Reform, the church etc, found guilty of sex offences and violence, it turns to 'well, yes, of course we have our own issues but why make it worse? One rape from a migrant is too much'.

It doesn't help that people get sucked up by ragebait posted online. Bar cute cat videos, people love sharing videos containing violence. They love the videos of face covered people being filmed steaming into a shop and stealing everything as staff look on powerless (they're not paid enough to get stabbed trying to be a hero, with an employer that would sack them for putting themselves at risk) and the usual suspects then come on to say, erm, 'the usual suspects'. It doesn't even matter if the offender is later caught and revealed to be white. Just as it doesn't matter that the video of a car or bus on fire that is clearly a petrol or diesel car is 'sold' as an EV, and all the comments turn to being anti-EV and against net zero...

As long as you have Elon pushing these and joining in to say 'London is lost' and other comments, I don't see how we fix the problem as I'm not one for censorship - but a lot of the stuff online is hateful and trying desperately to trigger the riots you fear will happen sooner or later.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 31 Aug 2025 ==

The "support" for Reform among the under 25s is at around 10% so with respect you are talking utter nonsense. A few angry young males with a fixation on Andrew Tate and "owning" women is not an element of society who's views should be "respected"

I really do hope you're right, but my son came home (he's 13) talking about Andrew Tate a year or so ago (bear in mind this was after all the fuss over what Andrew Tate is alleged to have done). I tried my hardest to explain why he's not a nice person, but in the last couple of weeks some friends of his were talking about Tommy Robinson and going after all these illegal immigrants as if that was a noble task.

Again, I've brought him up to have some critical thinking, but I was still somewhat disappointed that he was even thinking these people could be worth listening to.

I can't stop him talking to anyone or being given conflicting arguments by his peers, and hope he'll make up his own mind in a caring and compassionate way.

I'm also mindful at times that when I write long posts on here about my concerns, I cannot talk to him like that. He won't have that sort of attention span, and my long rants can't compete with a 15 second YouTube short.

Reform and others are doing extremely well on the very media that young people are consuming, and even if the numbers are still low the chances are it's only going to get worse.

 

[Cdd89]

It's quite interesting to see where the 'asylum seekers' are coming from. My assumption is most from countries such as Iran, Sudan, Afghanistan, Syria, Eritrea, Somalia etc probably have legitimate claims but ones from Pakistan and Bangladesh I'm very dubious about.

The statistics show that the vast majority of small boat arrivals do so without passports or other documentation.

I agree that (as a rule) the country of origin is a key determinant of an asylum application - in fact, I would go further and say it's almost the only fact that matters. Not being able to positively validate this information is why the small boat method of migration is so pernicious.

The Labour Party do seem to be on board with attempting to deter this method of entry, which if successful would likely take the wind out of reform and restore legitimacy to the asylum process. However returning a portion of migrants to France is hardly a deterrent in the same way that the Rwanda scheme would have been, since the worst case scenario for someone trying their luck is that they stay in the same situation they are in.

I expect the next successful party will present something similar to the Rwanda scheme (perhaps with a different unappealing country). That may even be Labour, but if not it's clearly what Reform have been proposing.

 

[Lewisham2221]

The statistics show that the vast majority of small boat arrivals do so without passports or other documentation.

I agree that (as a rule) the country of origin is a key determinant of an asylum application - in fact, I would go further and say it's almost the only fact that matters. Not being able to positively validate this information is why the small boat method of migration is so pernicious.

The Labour Party do seem to be on board with attempting to deter this method of entry, which if successful would likely take the wind out of reform and restore legitimacy to the asylum process. However returning a portion of migrants to France is hardly a deterrent in the same way that the Rwanda scheme would have been, since the worst case scenario for someone trying their luck is that they stay in the same situation they are in.

I expect the next successful party will present something similar to the Rwanda scheme (perhaps with a different unappealing country). That may even be Labour, but if not it's clearly what Reform have been proposing.

"Stop the boats" should be something that any party wants to achieve. (Stay with me on this one...)

The difference is that many Reform supporters have made it clear that they actually mean "stop the immigrants with a different skin colour".

On the other hand, any decent person should (IMO) support "stopping the boats" and housing asylum seekers in hotels; having people risk their lives (after fleeing their homeland in fear of their lives) crossing the channel in an overcrowded, totally unsuitable vessel to then be "housed" in a low-end hotel and left in limbo for an indeterminate amount time - unable to legally work and contribute to society - whilst waiting for their claim to be processed is clearly unacceptable.

What really irks me about this subject, is when Reform supporters come out with stuff like "They should be looking after our own. If you're so supportive of the boat people why don't you put them up in your spare room" - yet there's never any suggestion that they themselves would willingly house one of "our" homeless or otherwise do anything to support "our own".

 

[WelshBluebird]

yet there's never any suggestion that they themselves would willingly house one of "our" homeless or otherwise do anything to support "our own".

Or indeed even vote for policies that would "help our own".

 

[jon0844]

Or indeed even vote for policies that would "help our own".

You did of course mean to say "help are own".

 

[Cdd89]

On the other hand, any decent person should (IMO) support "stopping the boats" and housing asylum seekers in hotels; having people risk their lives (after fleeing their homeland in fear of their lives) crossing the channel in an overcrowded, totally unsuitable vessel to then be "housed" in a low-end hotel and left in limbo for an indeterminate amount time - unable to legally work and contribute to society - whilst waiting for their claim to be processed is clearly unacceptable.

I would agree with this. Where I think it gets tricker is that every major political party has an unspoken agreement that it should be as difficult as possible to claim asylum - and given that there are actually plenty of worthy cases in the world, this involves placing direct and indirect barriers to arriving into the UK to present one's case. (I think only the Green Party is actively welcoming, and while I respect their principles they are by far the smallest of the "major" parties which speaks to the unpopularity of their suggestion).

The idea that Reform is some watershed moment for racism is therefore not one I go along with, since if the UK were truly tolerant we would have been advocating for helping people from affected countries make it here (as with the Ukraine scheme) rather than begrudgingly accepting those who make it past our barriers. Continuing to harden methods to arrive into the UK as methods change is clearly the only viable strategy for political success, the only difference on this topic being that other parties have proven ineffectual at introducing new barriers to small boat arrivals.

 

[jon0844]

I'm not going to pretend that everyone was happy with us welcoming people from Ukraine, but you certainly didn't hear the same hateful comments as you do about the people coming on the boats.

Also,

Save are children...

The anti-asylum protesters claim they're acting out of concern for children. They are not. Many of them have been found abusing children themselves. They are acting out of racial hatred, and this weekend proved it again.

 

[weeklycommuter]

I'm not going to pretend that everyone was happy with us welcoming people from Ukraine, but you certainly didn't hear the same hateful comments as you do about the people coming on the boats.

The people from Ukraine came through immigration control and had the necessary permissions to enter the UK. The problem with the people coming on the boats is that they do not have permission to enter the UK and do not come though immigration control and therefore have not been screened in any way. That is the reason I find that people resident in this country are not happy with the people coming on the boats.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The people from Ukraine came through immigration control and had the necessary permissions to enter the UK. The problem with the people coming on the boats is that they do not have permission to enter the UK and do not come though immigration control and therefore have not been screened in any way. That is the reason I find that people resident in this country are not happy with the people coming on the boats.

The fix to that is to allow applications for asylum to be made online from outside the UK and processed before the person enters.

The boats would stop then as who would pay thousands and risk their life to get here when they can apply and sit tight in France pending a decision, then get on a perfectly safe ferry for thirty quid.

Plus if such legal routes existed, we could then make rules like anyone arriving by illegal means will automatically be denied, deported and permanently banned from ever entering the UK by any means.

 

[jon0844]

The fix to that is to allow applications for asylum to be made online from outside the UK and processed before the person enters.

The boats would stop then as who would pay thousands and risk their life to get here when they can apply and sit tight in France pending a decision, then get on a perfectly safe ferry for thirty quid.

Plus if such legal routes existed, we could then make rules like anyone arriving by illegal means will automatically be denied, deported and permanently banned from ever entering the UK by any means.

Exactly. I am not sure how it could work, but couldn't we ask France to designate an area as UK soil that allows people to approach to claim asylum? If details need to be checked, they could leave to return to follow up the application without being housed in a hotel.

If they opted to still come by boat (or hide in the back of a lorry as I'm sure people still do even if we're not talking about that), they could be returned and directed to the asylum claim centre.

I am writing this from a perspective of blissful ignorance on how this might work or could work.

 

[weeklycommuter]

The fix to that is to allow applications for asylum to be made online from outside the UK and processed before the person enters.

The boats would stop then as who would pay thousands and risk their life to get here when they can apply and sit tight in France pending a decision, then get on a perfectly safe ferry for thirty quid.

Plus if such legal routes existed, we could then make rules like anyone arriving by illegal means will automatically be denied, deported and permanently banned from ever entering the UK by any means.

That is the plan associated with the latest agreement signed between the UK and France. However until 2020 the UK was part of the Dublin Regulation which required people seeking asylum to do so in the first country covered. This meant that people who crossed the Channel in small boats would be returned to France and required to claim asylum in France with the result that very few compared to now crossed the Channel in small boats. The decision by the Boris Johnson Government to leave the Dublin Regulation at the end of 2020 meant that asylum seekers could no longer be returned to France so tens of thousands every year began crossing the Channel to seek asylum in the UK.

 

[Bald Rick]

That is the plan associated with the latest agreement signed between the UK and France. However until 2020 the UK was part of the Dublin Regulation which required people seeking asylum to do so in the first country covered. This meant that people who crossed the Channel in small boats would be returned to France and required to claim asylum in France with the result that very few compared to now crossed the Channel in small boats. The decision by the Boris Johnson Government to leave the Dublin Regulation at the end of 2020 meant that asylum seekers could no longer be returned to France so tens of thousands every year began crossing the Channel to seek asylum in the UK.

Ah, Brexit, the gift that keeps on giving,

 

[weeklycommuter]

Ah, Brexit, the gift that keeps on giving,

Yes this problem of tens of thousands of people crossing the Channel each year is one consequence of Brexit. There are many other consequences of Brexit and I cannot think of any that are in any way beneficial.

 

[jon0844]

Yes this problem of tens of thousands of people crossing the Channel each year is one consequence of Brexit. There are many other consequences of Brexit and I cannot think of any that are in any way beneficial.

It was beneficial to other countries in Europe that were looking at us to see if they wanted to trigger their own movements to leave the EU. They quickly realised it wasn't going to a vote winner and probably made the EU even stronger*.

* Of course there are still issues within the EU, just as there were when we were members. Of course remaining a member gives you the ability to have a say and help steer things rather than have to react to what happens when you're no longer a member. And we were one of the most powerful and influential members!

 

[JamesT]

That is the plan associated with the latest agreement signed between the UK and France. However until 2020 the UK was part of the Dublin Regulation which required people seeking asylum to do so in the first country covered. This meant that people who crossed the Channel in small boats would be returned to France and required to claim asylum in France with the result that very few compared to now crossed the Channel in small boats. The decision by the Boris Johnson Government to leave the Dublin Regulation at the end of 2020 meant that asylum seekers could no longer be returned to France so tens of thousands every year began crossing the Channel to seek asylum in the UK.

In theory that was the case. However, the Dublin Regulation only ever resulted in a few hundred being repatriated each year, and in some years we had a net inflow through it as other EU countries could send people to us.

The rise of the small boat crossings goes back a decade, when enforcement at the ferry crossings and the tunnel was stepped up. Remember the Calais 'Jungle'? That long predates Brexit.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Yes this problem of tens of thousands of people crossing the Channel each year is one consequence of Brexit. There are many other consequences of Brexit and I cannot think of any that are in any way beneficial.

Indeed and I can't see why Starmer doesn't latch onto this and really differentiate himself from Farage rather than trying to outdo him on immigration a policy they will never win on.

 

[alex397]

It was beneficial to other countries in Europe that were looking at us to see if they wanted to trigger their own movements to leave the EU. They quickly realised it wasn't going to a vote winner and probably made the EU even stronger*.

* Of course there are still issues within the EU, just as there were when we were members. Of course remaining a member gives you the ability to have a say and help steer things rather than have to react to what happens when you're no longer a member. And we were one of the most powerful and influential members!

I would say we’ve shot ourselves in the foot, but that’s well and truly an understatement. I’ll never forgive this country for going through with it.

 

[Tezza1978]

3 years and 10 months.

We are 4 years and 4 months from the 2030’s….

Well spotted mate - that is of course what I meant

Don't remind me how close the 2030s are..... it makes me feel old

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 31 Aug 2025 ==

Exactly. I am not sure how it could work, but couldn't we ask France to designate an area as UK soil that allows people to approach to claim asylum? If details need to be checked, they could leave to return to follow up the application without being housed in a hotel.

If they opted to still come by boat (or hide in the back of a lorry as I'm sure people still do even if we're not talking about that), they could be returned and directed to the asylum claim centre.

I am writing this from a perspective of blissful ignorance on how this might work or could work.

I think this would probably work in theory. After all - designating an area of land as foreign soil already happens in the case of embassies.....

 

[Purple Train]

Yes this problem of tens of thousands of people crossing the Channel each year is one consequence of Brexit. There are many other consequences of Brexit and I cannot think of any that are in any way beneficial.

Glad it's not just me linking it to Brexit then!

I would say we’ve shot ourselves in the foot, but that’s well and truly an understatement. I’ll never forgive this country for going through with it.

Quite. I do find it exasperating, though of course you win some and lose some with democracy, that 52% of people who turned out on one day when I was eight or nine can make a decision that will profoundly negatively affect my life for years and years to come. Anyway, Britain has made its bed and must lie in it. Unfortunately, we seem intent on shooting ourselves repeatedly in both feet, as the continuation of Brexit-style rhetoric shows in the rise of Reform.

 

[AlterEgo]

The mass disorder and violence doesn't seem to have even started yet. The flags and screaming people as you put it, is simply the steam coming out of a kettle. At some point, the kettle will become a pressure cooker and it will inevitably explode. That is the trajectory that I believe the UK is on at the moment.

Looking down and tutting at people painting and hanging the flags is ignorant, dangerous and wrong.

No, it isn't all three of those things. The flags are mostly being strung up by racists and xenophobes. They are ignorant, and it is good to call out racism for what it is. "That is racist and is not okay" is a morally proper statement when there is actual, tangible racism involved. That is the right thing for right-minded people to do. What it might be is dangerous in the short term in that it will not mollify those people, but it does take moral courage to call stuff out as unacceptable and particularly so when you think there may be negative consequences.

Britain should not pander to racists and fascists. They should be told where to go.

That doesn't mean we can't fix the myriad problems we face, but pandering to people with racist views who have begun to commit criminal damage, and in your view who will escalate to violent disorder, isn't how you build a healthy democracy. In your view, which other groups should we pander to if they begin to threaten a bit of violence?

You can fix the broken asylum system without doing it at the behest of Tommy Robinson's crew. Asylum seekers should not be in hotels for months on end; almost nobody thinks this is a good idea regardless of where they are on the political spectrum.

 

[Tazi Hupefi]

Well spotted mate - that is of course what I meant

Don't remind me how close the 2030s are..... it makes me feel old

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 31 Aug 2025 ==


I think this would probably work in theory. After all - designating an area of land as foreign soil already happens in the case of embassies.....

The theory is problematic because irregular immigration is also the leading issue in France, possibly with even more political consequences than the UK.

The French will exchange a few here and there, and put on a bit of security theatre (at great financial cost to the British) - but ultimately they don't want the immigrants on or near their territory either, including passing through to reach this mythical new British territory in France. You'd have to somehow lockdown this new British holding pen and prevent them from being able to make it back into "French" territory.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 1 Sep 2025 ==

No, it isn't all three of those things. The flags are mostly being strung up by racists and xenophobes. They are ignorant, and it is good to call out racism for what it is. "That is racist and is not okay" is a morally proper statement when there is actual, tangible racism involved. That is the right thing for right-minded people to do.

Britain should not pander to racists and fascists. They should be told where to go.

That doesn't mean we can't fix the myriad problems we face, but pandering to people with racist views who have begun to commit criminal damage, and in your view who will escalate to violent disorder, isn't how you build a healthy democracy. In your view, which other groups should we pander to if they begin to threaten a bit of violence?

You can fix the broken asylum system without doing it at the behest of Tommy Robinson's crew. Asylum seekers should not be in hotels for months on end; almost nobody thinks this is a good idea regardless of where they are on the political spectrum.

We clearly, collectively as a country, cannot fix the myriad of problems here - nor does anyone trust the Labour or Conservative governments to do so in the future either. If it were possible, we wouldn't have been deteriorating further into this political and societal collapse for the last 20 odd years.

Reform likely also don't have the answers, but when the population is desperate to address these issues, what have they got to lose by giving the new party a try? People voting Reform aren't, for the most part, in any way racist. Calling them so just makes them more popular in any event - history loves a perceived underdog taking on the establishment and saying outrageous things that politicians don't typically say.

Most people in the UK genuinely just don't want people arriving here by illicit boats and their occupants making claims for asylum whilst the taxpayer funds their meagre existence in perpetuity until someone figures out what to do with them. Most of the arrivals are economic migrants in search of a better existence, so you can't blame them for trying in my opinion, but it's not sustainable and they do need to be stopped.

That isn't racist.