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So it boils down to “look at Labour, they’ve failed in the past; look at the Tories, they’ve failed in the past; we haven’t failed and we’ve got lots of criticism of the status quo and some vague guff about what we'll do”
Essentially, yes. While some people attracted to Reform are indeed racist/xenophobic/anti-immigration etc, that's only part of why they're appealing and not the main part. This, what you've said here, is another larger part of what's getting them support and potentially votes that is getting totally missed by many. Because it's getting totally missed by many, it's benefitting Reform and giving off a "look, see, they don't care about and understand you and what you want, but we do."
The Brexit battle was, in my opinion, a test run in the mind of Farage. If someone somehow compared areas of the UK + demographics of people that voted Leave in Brexit vs areas of the UK + demographics of people that support Reform+Farage today, I wouldn't be at all surprised if the results are similar.
They'll just point the finger at insufficient central government funding and/or unreasonable demands made on them as a result of central government policies (eg our DOGE highlighted Kent wasting council tax payers money on TV Licenses. Its only because they're for the children of illegals and we have no choice but to pay"
We have potentially four years of them running councils in the more socially-conservative areas of the country though. Hopefully that will be enough time to show them up for what they are.
Granted the MAGA lot will always vote for them blindly but those that are not ideological (see post #745 above) will hopefully be dissuaded if they do a bad job in the councils, which, IMO, they almost certainly will.
That isn't an excuse for complacency but we need some hope that there are routes to prevent them getting in next time - and I think this is one of those routes.
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Essentially, yes. While some people attracted to Reform are indeed racist/xenophobic/anti-immigration etc, that's only part of why they're appealing and not the main part. This, what you've said here, is another larger part of what's getting them support and potentially votes that is getting totally missed by many. Because it's getting totally missed by many, it's benefitting Reform and giving off a "look, see, they don't care about and understand you and what you want, but we do."
The Brexit battle was, in my opinion, a test run in the mind of Farage. If someone somehow compared areas of the UK + demographics of people that voted Leave in Brexit vs areas of the UK + demographics of people that support Reform+Farage today, I wouldn't be at all surprised if the results are similar.
I would doubt that Reform would get as much support as Brexit.
Much as I hate Brexit, it, on its own, wasn't a route to an authoritarian government, while Reform in my opinion is.
I suspect that there are a lot of people that are far more frightened of Reform than they were of Brexit. It certainly applies to me: Brexit made me angry more than anything else, and while I have quite intense anger towards Reform as well, the other emotion I have regarding Reform is something much darker: fear.
I do suspect that there is a lot of deep-seated fear of Reform, and not just from lefties / liberals. There are going to be a lot of people in the centre who have been used to a reasonable level of freedom of speech and expression under either Labour or the Conservatives, and will perceive Reform as threatening that. People who will see Reform's over-the-top anti-immigration agenda and perceive that as threatening the economy. You've only got to look at the USA to see that the fear of authoritarianism is a realistic and reasonable fear.
But with that all in mind, what do "we" do to prevent a Reform-led government next time?
"We" being those of us who are frightened of, disturbed by, and repulsed by Reform; would understand that Reform would do a terrible job, not actually make things better, increase the wealth divide (does Farage really care about the poor? No, I suspect); potentially trash sectors of the economy due to a hardline anti-immigration stance; and most worryingly of all, could bring in an authoritarian regime which is at least as bad as what is currently in place in the US. We're already seeing signs of authoritarianism and control-freakery in the form of their bans on flying non-national/county flags such as the Pride flag or the Ukraine flag.
"We" also being other parties, such as Labour, the Lib Dems and even the Conservatives.
With the way things are currently going, based off my belief that the outcome of the Brexit vote and the support for Reform are linked, I predict Reform win next time and Farage is prime-minister, or they at least get very very close main opposition. It concerns me too, it seems unthinkable, but I really think it's a possibility this time because many people are just so fed up of the way the current political system works and how those in high level politics treat the public.
So to answer your question, what do we do? I honestly don't have all the answers, but a couple of things do spring to mind and these are as follows.
a) Understand and genuinely get to the bottom of why people are voting Reform. Understand that not everyone voting for Reform is doing so because they're racist or anti-immigration. Understand that it's also because some people are fed up, desperate, feel completely abandoned or out of touch with those in politics today and urgently want their lives to change/improve for the better, with visible quick proof.
b) Hope that Kier Starmer and Labour, as quick as possible, deliver these clear changes. That means things like bills coming down, their local transport getting cheaper, accessing a GP/NHS hospital being easier/less stressful and, as random as it sounds, small but obvious things like streets/parks being cleaned, potholes being fixed and easier/clearer pathways to accessing mental health services. These are all things that are interacted with or needed regularly by a larger number of people. Starmer and Labour need to focus on the clear local visual improvements.
c) Keep an eye on how they perform and behave with what they currently have. As @The Ham said, if Reform fail to deliver change or improvements with what they have, their support will reduce.
The only other point I have to make is an opinion based off another belief about politics globally. I think support for Reform would possibly be weaker without Farage as the leader. So if Farage was to resign, depending on who takes over, I think that would put a dent in their strength.
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I would doubt that Reform would get as much support as Brexit.
Much as I hate Brexit, it, on its own, wasn't a route to an authoritarian government, while Reform in my opinion is.
I suspect that there are a lot of people that are far more frightened of Reform than they were of Brexit. It certainly applies to me: Brexit made me angry more than anything else, and while I have quite intense anger towards Reform as well, the other emotion I have regarding Reform is something much darker: fear.
I do suspect that there is a lot of deep-seated fear of Reform, and not just from lefties / liberals. There are going to be a lot of people in the centre who have been used to a reasonable level of freedom of speech and expression under either Labour or the Conservatives, and will perceive Reform as threatening that. People who will see Reform's over-the-top anti-immigration agenda and perceive that as threatening the economy. You've only got to look at the USA to see that the fear of authoritarianism is a realistic and reasonable fear.
Perhaps not as much support, I agree, but a strong similarity in the areas and people who voted Leave and those who vote Reform.
Brexit, in part, was seen as an opportunity to stick the proverbial middle finger up against the political world at the time. A protest vote against the current political system and the government. Not everyone who voted understood what it meant, some people just voted against what the government said for the sake of going against them. That's exactly what the opportunity to vote for Reform is perceived as by some - an opportunity to shake up and abolish the current system, to end the lack of improvements, to change things because the previous Labour and Conservative governments haven't worked, so, in their minds "might as well give the new ones, who's main slogan is they are going to change things, a try".
What's happening in the US is very frightening, I agree and feel the same as you, it's a realistic and reasonable fear to have about what could happen. But it really could happen and that's why I'm urging anyone reading this to understand that accusing/calling names to someone interested in voting Reform (e.g racist, lunatic, far-right, crazy) isn't the answer because it's not true. The solution is to deeply understand why people are attracted to Reform and what it is that they want because they're not all bad/hurtful/uncaring people.
It doesn’t matter how they perform locally as people’s perception of reform will be based on the information they consume, and as that is more curated than ever by very wealthy tax-averse libertarians (mostly the US tech sort, but a few home grown hedge fund weirdos too) then the views/agendas of those people will be presented to them as fact on all channels. Who watches live TV news or reads newspapers these days? It’s a minority. Those who see the world through Facebook and YouTube aren’t ever going to know about squabbles and resignations at Kent County Council.
Most digital platforms are owned by powerful interests who want less regulation and smaller less powerful states that can’t stand in the road to limit their power, and they will throw everything they can to get there.
The racism and culture war stuff isn’t ideological for most of them, it’s just a means of keeping people punching downwards and building a base that will vote for parties that will serve their interests.
With the way things are currently going, based off my belief that the outcome of the Brexit vote and the support for Reform are linked, I predict Reform win next time and Farage is prime-minister, or they at least get very very close main opposition. It concerns me too, it seems unthinkable, but I really think it's a possibility this time because many people are just so fed up of the way the current political system works and how those in high level politics treat the public.
Just a question, you phrase that as if it's a near-certainty and there is very little we can do, even though the next election is likely four years away. Is this the case or have I misunderstood you and the right choices can still prevent it?
My main ideas would be:
a) Campaign, campaign, campaign against Reform. Campaigns should be strictly non-partisan and non-affiliated.
There could be two varieties of campaign: one targeted at those of us concerned about more left-wing issues, but what I want to highlight is another campaign aimed more at small-c conservatives.
There could be a "British values" themed campaign, essentially using a soft and benign form of patriotism. "British values" are generally taken to include tolerance of those with other viewpoints and freedom of expression. Will Reform maintain those values? I can't answer that but initial signs are concerning.
b) I've said this before but could Boris be a secret weapon? It seems crazy to suggest that the main architect of Brexit could be brought back to fight them - but given his populist touch, could he bring people back to the Tory fold?
(This is not a ringing endorsement of Boris or the Tories, but he/they would be by far the least-worst option of the two). Boris is a far more likeable individual than Farage, I think that's a fair objective comment to make.
c) "Reform" the voting system ASAP and lessen the chances of them winning on a 30% vote under FPTP.
d) More opposition options. There need to be alternative parties for people who are fed up of Labour and the Tories and want to vote for something else, but not Reform. Is it time for a centrist populist party? One that will promise to fix the problems without all the baggage?
At the moment, rather surprisingly, there seem to be little in the way of potent non-partisan anti-Reform campaigns. There need to be; perhaps people are trying to evaluate whether this is just a bubble and will start acting if it doesn't deflate soon.
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It doesn’t matter how they perform locally as people’s perception of reform will be based on the information they consume, and as that is more curated than ever by very wealthy tax-averse libertarians (mostly the US tech sort, but a few home grown hedge fund weirdos too) then the views/agendas of those people will be presented to them as fact on all channels. Who watches live TV news or reads newspapers these days? It’s a minority. Those who see the world through Facebook and YouTube aren’t ever going to know about squabbles and resignations at Kent County Council.
Most digital platforms are owned by powerful interests who want less regulation and smaller less powerful states that can’t stand in the road to limit their power, and they will throw everything they can to get there.
The racism and culture war stuff isn’t ideological for most of them, it’s just a means of keeping people punching downwards and building a base that will vote for parties that will serve their interests.
I have to say this is a very despondent post; it seems to suggest that there is absolutely nothing we can do and that the Western world is headed for right-wing demagoguery, at the behest of various shady figures.
Are we really all condemned, and the freedoms we've enjoyed since around 1945 will become a thing of the past?
Are we really all sheep, mindlessly consuming information without any form of critical faculties?
Or will people get wise to the fact that they are being manipulated by the wealthy right?
So it boils down to “look at Labour, they’ve failed in the past; look at the Tories, they’ve failed in the past; we haven’t failed and we’ve got lots of criticism of the status quo and some vague guff about what we'll do”
I've some sympathy with that view of the two main parties, but the Lib Dems haven't failed in the past and have over 70 MPs, yet they get far less media exposure than Reform with five. There are four parties on the opposition benches and that's without those unique to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. Electoral reform - there is growing support among MPs and the electorate for a move to PR, driven in part by Labour's recent win with only 34% of the vote. Is there a will among Labour front-benchers to achieve this in time for the 2029 GE?
I've some sympathy with that view of the two main parties, but the Lib Dems haven't failed in the past and have over 70 MPs, yet they get far less media exposure than Reform with five. There are four parties on the opposition benches and that's without those unique to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. Electoral reform - there is growing support among MPs and the electorate for a move to PR, driven in part by Labour's recent win with only 34% of the vote. Is there a will among Labour front-benchers to achieve this in time for the 2029 GE?
I think they need to - Reform will not gain absolute power on 30% of the vote under some form of PR, whereas under FPTP they might. Perhaps if next year's locals yield a similar result to this year's, they will be galvanised into action.
I've some sympathy with that view of the two main parties, but the Lib Dems haven't failed in the past and have over 70 MPs, yet they get far less media exposure than Reform with five. There are four parties on the opposition benches and that's without those unique to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. Electoral reform - there is growing support among MPs and the electorate for a move to PR, driven in part by Labour's recent win with only 34% of the vote. Is there a will among Labour front-benchers to achieve this in time for the 2029 GE?
Electoral reform is not currently Labour party policy, and neither the shadow front bench up to 2024 or the front bench now talked about doing it in this parliament. I also suspect if they suddenly do want a change of voting system that they would not be doing it for the next election; they'd have no mandate for it and trying to bring it in would cause huge resentment.
Reform UK incidentally talked up PR in the 2024 election aftermath, but now polling is showing them doing well without it they suddenly have gone quiet. The most likely way to get PR is for the next election to achieve a hung parliament, where a core coalition partner demands its implementation, or at the very least a referendum on it.
Electoral reform is not currently Labour party policy, and neither the shadow front bench up to 2024 or the front bench now talked about doing it in this parliament. I also suspect if they suddenly do want a change of voting system that they would not be doing it for the next election; they'd have no mandate for it and trying to bring it in would cause huge resentment.
Perhaps but if the aim is to prevent a Reform government, it should be implemented anyway.
If Reform get 30% and Labour get 25% under FPTP, they "could" get in.
If implementing PR causes Reform to go up to 40% and Labour down to 20%, then Reform end up with only 40% of MPs and thus do not attain absolute power. Unless they get close to 50% after a move to PR, they won't have a majority government: and I can't see them attaining even close to 50%. Even Thatcher and Blair at their height could only attain the mid-40s.
I'm not sure why people would resent a fairer voting system in any case: it was FPTP that brought in the Labour government that they profess to hate. Time and again, FPTP delivers divisive majority governments on a minority vote, surely the average populist would prefer a fairer system?
Part of the problem, Is the media footage that clearly is favouring reform, it needs regulating, to ensure a level playing ground, for example, Reform have 5 MP's, yet get unlimited air time, the Lib Dems have 70, yet are hardly heard , someone clearly is funding this, you do have to ask, whats in it for them ? As others have already said, its not just in the UK, its global far right parties, that years ago were very low profile are now suddenly gaining traction, Germany, Italy, France, US, UK, Sweden, it's no mistake, something very disconcerting is happening.
Part of the problem, Is the media footage that clearly is favouring reform, it needs regulating, to ensure a level playing ground, for example, Reform have 5 MP's, yet get unlimited air time, the Lib Dems have 70, yet are hardly heard , someone clearly is funding this, you do have to ask, whats in it for them ? As others have already said, its not just in the UK, its global far right parties, that years ago were very low profile are now suddenly gaining traction, Germany, Italy, France, US, UK, Sweden, it's no mistake, something very disconcerting is happening.
Let's hope the "anti-establishment" motive that was supposedly one reason for the Brexit vote turns against this new establishment.
One also wonders whether Russia is uploading propaganda on social media to encourage people to vote for the leading hard-right or far-right party in a given country, thus weakening the West.
I'm not sure why people would resent a fairer voting system in any case: it was FPTP that brought in the Labour government that they profess to hate. Time and again, FPTP delivers divisive majority governments on a minority vote, surely the average populist would prefer a fairer system?
Part of the problem, Is the media footage that clearly is favouring reform, it needs regulating, to ensure a level playing ground, for example, Reform have 5 MP's, yet get unlimited air time, the Lib Dems have 70, yet are hardly heard , someone clearly is funding this, you do have to ask, whats in it for them ? As others have already said, its not just in the UK, its global far right parties, that years ago were very low profile are now suddenly gaining traction, Germany, Italy, France, US, UK, Sweden, it's no mistake, something very disconcerting is happening.
Absolutely, and if I was Sir Ed Davey I would be dusting off my wetsuit. But the more Labour try to "out-Reform Reform" and the more the Conservatives focus on Reform-bashing, it keeps Reform within the sphere of mainstream political discourse. If they have to generate all their own headlines, then the likelihood of them messing up is greater than it would be if the other parties are still treating them as an equal.
Part of the problem, Is the media footage that clearly is favouring reform, it needs regulating, to ensure a level playing ground, for example, Reform have 5 MP's, yet get unlimited air time, the Lib Dems have 70, yet are hardly heard , someone clearly is funding this, you do have to ask, whats in it for them ? As others have already said, its not just in the UK, its global far right parties, that years ago were very low profile are now suddenly gaining traction, Germany, Italy, France, US, UK, Sweden, it's no mistake, something very disconcerting is happening.
In some areas funding is the reason for increased coverage, but for others it's simply doing/saying things that get more clicks. Trump infamously adopts/adopted a strategy of saying outlandish stuff knowing it would all be reported on, thus controlling the narrative and shutting out opponents.
Part of the problem, Is the media footage that clearly is favouring reform, it needs regulating, to ensure a level playing ground, for example, Reform have 5 MP's, yet get unlimited air time, the Lib Dems have 70, yet are hardly heard , someone clearly is funding this, you do have to ask, whats in it for them ?
I agree, but how do you measure it and what constitutes a level playing field.
I’ve long wondered about the (im)partiality of the panellists on Question Time, and I’ve kept a week by week note for the last three series, which adds up to about 160 people.
The interesting things I found were:
- massive Reform over-representation / Lib Dem under-representation of the MP panellists if you compare % to % of MPs
- however the above is almost perfectly fair if you compare to % of the vote in the last general election
- where there does seem a high pro-right imbalance is in the non-MP panellists. I’ve as objectively as possible classed each as being either left, centre or right, and so far those classed as right more than outnumber the other two combined
I’ve got the data on a spreadsheet (of course I have) and will post the data when I'm back home if anyone is interested
(Obviously there’s also the pro-right bias of the chair which is another matter)
I agree, but how do you measure it and what constitutes a level playing field.
I’ve long wondered about the (im)partiality of the panellists on Question Time, and I’ve kept a week by week note for the last three series, which adds up to about 160 people.
The interesting things I found were:
- massive Reform over-representation / Lib Dem under-representation of the MP panellists if you compare % to % of MPs
- however the above is almost perfectly fair if you compare to % of the vote in the last general election
- where there does seem a high pro-right imbalance is in the non-MP panellists. I’ve as objectively as possible classed each as being either left, centre or right, and so far those classed as right more than outnumber the other two combined
I’ve got the data on a spreadsheet (of course I have) and will post the data when I'm back home if anyone is interested
(Obviously there’s also the pro-right bias of the chair which is another matter)
Part of the problem, Is the media footage that clearly is favouring reform, it needs regulating, to ensure a level playing ground, for example, Reform have 5 MP's, yet get unlimited air time, the Lib Dems have 70, yet are hardly heard
Reform got more votes than the Lib Dems did in the general election and got the most votes of any party in the most recent elections. They are a popular party.
I agree, but how do you measure it and what constitutes a level playing field.
I’ve long wondered about the (im)partiality of the panellists on Question Time, and I’ve kept a week by week note for the last three series, which adds up to about 160 people.
The interesting things I found were:
- massive Reform over-representation / Lib Dem under-representation of the MP panellists if you compare % to % of MPs
- however the above is almost perfectly fair if you compare to % of the vote in the last general election
- where there does seem a high pro-right imbalance is in the non-MP panellists. I’ve as objectively as possible classed each as being either left, centre or right, and so far those classed as right more than outnumber the other two combined
I’ve got the data on a spreadsheet (of course I have) and will post the data when I'm back home if anyone is interested
(Obviously there’s also the pro-right bias of the chair which is another matter)
Love a good spreadsheet, thanks (in advance)
"- however the above is almost perfectly fair if you compare to % of the vote in the last general election"
is an interesting point, as 2 of those 3 series were BEFORE the last general election, so what was the representation of Reform on QT at that point best compared to? the Polls? UKIP at previosu election? Or is this chicken and egg to an extent, in that the massive over representation in QT and other media actually resulted (in part) in the vote share?
Either way, I'm very much with many other posters on this point: People are attracted to Reform beacuse they are 'change'. Some Reform voters are racists, most are just fed up and a bit unsettled by the world as it is today. Social media / Russian bots etc. amplify all this.
I'd like to think that the inevitable bust ups and poor performance of the Reform Councils will help, but I'm not hopeful. This isnt a brain thing, its a heart thing. See: USA, see also: Brexit. If Reform voters were thinking logically they would notice that the leader of Reform is the SAME BLOKE who promised things would be much better post Brexit. He won. We left. They arent. But they still vote for him.
It's funny you say this, as whilst I see many - clearly right leaning - people claiming that the BBC is too woke/lefty/liberal, I see probably just as many (clearly left leaning) people making claims that the BBC is more right-biased/Reform supporting etc etc.
Which leads me to conclude that the BBC is probably just about balanced!
It's funny you say this, as whilst I see many - clearly right leaning - people claiming that the BBC is too woke/lefty/liberal, I see probably just as many (clearly left leaning) people making claims that the BBC is more right-biased/Reform supporting etc etc.
Which leads me to conclude that the BBC is probably just about balanced!
The BBC is a genuine National Treasure. Its not perfect (what is?) but its a lot (many times) better than PSB elsewhere in the world. The people who constantly moan about 'our' money having pay for it should be force fed a diet of Italian Game shows and US Commercial breaks until their brains melt.
I'd like to think that the inevitable bust ups and poor performance of the Reform Councils will help, but I'm not hopeful. This isnt a brain thing, its a heart thing. See: USA, see also: Brexit. If Reform voters were thinking logically they would notice that the leader of Reform is the SAME BLOKE who promised things would be much better post Brexit. He won. We left. They arent. But they still vote for him.
Granted there will be the MAGA lot who will always vote for the BritTrump party. The kind that rant on about two-tier justice (aka complaining that right-wing yobs don't get let off) and immigration all the time.
But will enough non-MAGAs be turned off them if they do badly running councils?
This is what gives me some hope - but there is obviously no room for complacency.
Bringing back the USA analogy, I think there's every chance that the non-Trumpist candidate could win in the 2028 election - assuming the electoral system is not fiddled with in any way. Trump is losing popularity in the USA right now, why can the same not happen here with BritTrump?
It's funny you say this, as whilst I see many - clearly right leaning - people claiming that the BBC is too woke/lefty/liberal, I see probably just as many (clearly left leaning) people making claims that the BBC is more right-biased/Reform supporting etc etc.
Which leads me to conclude that the BBC is probably just about balanced!
Anti-BBC rhetoric is live amongst the predominantly right wing print media and associated broadcasters who are both viciously jealous of the BBC’s guaranteed revenue stream as well as being narked by it’s political neutrality or, in their view, ‘left wing bias’ whenever that neutrality allows meaningful analysis of right wing BS.
It’s the same mechanism that’s seen print media baying for Labour’s blood ever since the election result.
I'd like to think that the inevitable bust ups and poor performance of the Reform Councils will help, but I'm not hopeful. This isnt a brain thing, its a heart thing. See: USA, see also: Brexit. If Reform voters were thinking logically they would notice that the leader of Reform is the SAME BLOKE who promised things would be much better post Brexit. He won. We left. They arent. But they still vote for him.
Agreed. There's always a "yes, but..." excuse. It's always someone else's fault. I'm of the opinion that nothing meaningful will improve in Reform council areas.
Of course, they will do some very simple things that they can shout about loudly to show that they're doing what they said - see flags, (not)working from home, scrapping "DEI" etc etc. But will any of that fill potholes and make other road improvements? Of course not. Will any of that improve public transport? Of course not. Will any of that provide better adult social care or keep day centres open or keep vulnerable children safer? Of course not. Will any of that reverse cuts to things like libraries and museums, extend opening times, improve the services they provide? Of course not.
But...
Of course, their hands will be tied by pesky laws, statutory obligations, government rules, government funding, French fishermen, people in boats, people with brown skin, the LGBTQ+ community, lentil eating "woke" liberal lefties, anybody who has even the slightest bit of concern about the environment or climate exchange and pretty much anyone else who doesn't agree with them.
Agreed. There's always a "yes, but..." excuse. It's always someone else's fault. I'm of the opinion that nothing meaningful will improve in Reform council areas.
Of course, they will do some very simple things that they can shout about loudly to show that they're doing what they said - see flags, (not)working from home, scrapping "DEI" etc etc. But will any of that fill potholes and make other road improvements? Of course not. Will any of that improve public transport? Of course not. Will any of that provide better adult social care or keep day centres open or keep vulnerable children safer? Of course not. Will any of that reverse cuts to things like libraries and museums, extend opening times, improve the services they provide? Of course not.
But...
Of course, their hands will be tied by pesky laws, statutory obligations, government rules, government funding, French fishermen, people in boats, people with brown skin, the LGBTQ+ community, lentil eating "woke" liberal lefties, anybody who has even the slightest bit of concern about the environment or climate exchange and pretty much anyone else who doesn't agree with them.
As I've said a couple of times already though, some people at least will be put off Reform by this. Not the MAGA-style fundamentalists, but some of the others that have been mentioned a few times in the thread. Several people have said that not all Reform supporters are extremists; if this is the case, then they will be put off by poor council performance. Non-extremist people attracted to Reform simply because they want an "alternative" will not swallow this attempt to blame everyone else.
There does seem to be a general air of pessimism coming over this thread, almost as if a Reform win is inevitable and there's nothing we can do about it. I'd like to think that a Reform win in the next election can still be prevented. We have four years, after all.
In the USA I don't think it's inevitable that the Trumpist successor (JD Vance?) will win the next election. Why should it be different here? I'd like to think that there is some alternative to the UK becoming a ****hole until at least 2034.
As I've said a couple of times already though, some people at least will be put off Reform by this. Not the MAGA-style fundamentalists, but some of the others that have been mentioned a few times in the thread. Several people have said that not all Reform supporters are extremists; if this is the case, then they will be put off by poor council performance. Non-extremist people attracted to Reform simply because they want an "alternative" will not swallow this attempt to blame everyone else.
There does seem to be a general air of pessimism coming over this thread, almost as if a Reform win is inevitable and there's nothing we can do about it. I'd like to think that a Reform win in the next election can still be prevented. We have four years, after all.
In the USA I don't think it's inevitable that the Trumpist successor (JD Vance?) will win the next election. Why should it be different here? I'd like to think that there is some alternative to the UK becoming a ****hole until at least 2034.
Don't get me wrong, I'm as hopeful as you are that people will rather quickly see Reform's inability to deliver any meaningful improvements and start to see their excuses as just that - excuses.
I just don't want to get too confident about it. Brexit achieved just about nothing positive, yet people still voted for Farage and Co. I'd rather keep at least one foot on the ground and be prepared for a rollercoaster ride...
There does seem to be a general air of pessimism coming over this thread, almost as if a Reform win is inevitable and there's nothing we can do about it. I'd like to think that a Reform win in the next election can still be prevented. We have four years, after all.
In the USA I don't think it's inevitable that the Trumpist successor (JD Vance?) will win the next election. Why should it be different here? I'd like to think that there is some alternative to the UK becoming a ****hole until at least 2034.
An awful lot of people will sit in front of their TV foaming at Farage on Question Time, or behind a keyboard giving detailed thoughts on how Reform could be defeated.
But I'd bet we could count on one hand the number of people in this post who are regularly on the streets campaigning against Reform (or for an alternative party or group).
It doesn't help that anti-Reform/Tommy/BF protests often end up with a muddled message as people rock up with Palestine flags, SWP banners, placards berating the police, etc. This was visible even at the Sarah Everard vigil when people turned up with Palestine flags.
Part of the problem, Is the media footage that clearly is favouring reform, it needs regulating, to ensure a level playing ground, for example, Reform have 5 MP's, yet get unlimited air time, the Lib Dems have 70, yet are hardly heard , someone clearly is funding this, you do have to ask, whats in it for them ? As others have already said, its not just in the UK, its global far right parties, that years ago were very low profile are now suddenly gaining traction, Germany, Italy, France, US, UK, Sweden, it's no mistake, something very disconcerting is happening.
Rage bait makes money. If Nigel says something that is going to strongly divide opinion, it will get engagement if you talk about it. The more people that pile on in the comments section (even if most are bots) the better as it's all about traffic. The Daily Mail worked this out years ago, and now the others are catching up. Even the BBC has to be seen to be appealing to the masses and run commercially, even if there's no advertising (in the UK at least - as let's remember, they do have BBC sites abroad that absolutely have loads of ads and so traffic counts). Given a lot of BBC online content is from the TV material, it means they're going to want Nigel on Question Time instead of some 'unknown'.
And so Reform dominates the headlines even with just five MPs, one of which lives abroad and the other never visits his constituency (well I assume Richard Tice doesn't go to his either if he's in Dubai?).
It doesn't help that Labour needs someone to manage their media engagement.. they need a spin doctor to get positive press and use the same tricks there were perfected by Tony Blair and have been used ever since. The Lib Dems also fail massively in this area.
If they put people forward all the time, who were good on air, they'd get more coverage. Nigel is ALWAYS available as he's his own brand and knows how to market himself perfectly.
== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==
Anti-BBC rhetoric is live amongst the predominantly right wing print media and associated broadcasters who are both viciously jealous of the BBC’s guaranteed revenue stream as well as being narked by it’s political neutrality or, in their view, ‘left wing bias’ whenever that neutrality allows meaningful analysis of right wing BS.
It’s the same mechanism that’s seen print media baying for Labour’s blood ever since the election result.
The Tories tried to get a lot more control of the BBC during their time in power, with the usual 'access journalism' trick to keep the media in line. Say bad things; no interviews or access for you.
A lot of people who work for the BBC are likely going to be more on the left to centre ground, especially the younger journalists. At least that used to be the case. So there's definitely going to be an element of in-fighting over how to cover things from a supposedly impartial view - as you have lots of different 'factions' within the organisation. The Tories made them run more commercially and competitively, and ratings are very important. So you do what gets views - and as I said above, we know what gets views.. anger and rage.
But will that kind of pessimism not be self-defeating?
Do you honestly think we are condemned to 5 years of Reform and there is absolutely nothing we can do about it? Do you not have any form of hope or optimism at all? Do you honestly think that we're screwed until at least 2034? (Which for some of us is much of the rest of our working life, which is a grim prospect indeed).
Do you really not think that people will start realising that, despite our problems, at least the UK is a liberal democracy at the moment and voting in a party which is not exactly middle-of-the-road or moderate, and has a leadership that doesn't come across as particularly professional, is a huge risk to our way of life? I do note that small-c conservatives often talk about "preserving the British way of life" and to me, preserving the British way of life is best attained by voting in tried and trusted parties.
If people think we're screwed, then we will just crawl into our shells and do absolutely nothing. We need hope.
An awful lot of people will sit in front of their TV foaming at Farage on Question Time, or behind a keyboard giving detailed thoughts on how Reform could be defeated.
But I'd bet we could count on one hand the number of people in this post who are regularly on the streets campaigning against Reform (or for an alternative party or group).
It doesn't help that anti-Reform/Tommy/BF protests often end up with a muddled message as people rock up with Palestine flags, SWP banners, placards berating the police, etc. This was visible even at the Sarah Everard vigil when people turned up with Palestine flags.
It is early days though. I suspect many feel that 4 years is a long way in the future and if we're still in the same position in 2 years' time, when the election will be a lot closer, or even in one year's time, there will be a lot more urgency. At the moment people are perhaps a bit complacent, but I suspect that will change.
Also there are no significant anti-Reform protest groups, so unless you're the kind of person with "leader" qualities (and we're not all like that, let's be honest) there isn't a whole lot we can do right now other than talk to potential Reform voters to dissuade them (and I don't know any personally in any case). That's my own feeling, certainly.
Until there is a significant "anti" movement there isn't a lot we can do. But I suspect that "anti" movement will arise as the urgency of the situation increases.
I do think that, unlike Brexit where people did get complacent and thought Remain would gain more votes easily, a lot of us - right now - are genuinely frightened of a Reform win and this will only increase in the next four years. This is where I think the situation and the Brexit referendum differ.
Plus the Trump factor of course. The next election will presumably be just after Trump leaves power and there will be a sense of "thank God that's over" amongst many. After four years of Trump will we really want to bring in a cheap and nasty, imitation BritTrump here in the UK?
Also another unknown is the Tory factor. What if they get a leader which causes people to swing back to them? People thought the Tories were finished in the 2019 EU elections... and then along came Boris.
I do think there are plenty of strands of hope and it's not at all helpful to get into self-defeating pessimism this far out from the next election. For one thing the prospect of the country being screwed for most of the next 10 years does one's mental health no good at all.
But will that kind of pessimism not be self-defeating?
Do you honestly think we are condemned to 5 years of Reform and there is absolutely nothing we can do about it? Do you not have any form of hope or optimism at all? Do you honestly think that we're screwed until at least 2034? (Which for some of us is much of the rest of our working life, which is a grim prospect indeed).
Do you really not think that people will start realising that, despite our problems, at least the UK is a liberal democracy at the moment and voting in a party which is not exactly middle-of-the-road or moderate, and has a leadership that doesn't come across as particularly professional, is a huge risk to our way of life? I do note that small-c conservatives often talk about "preserving the British way of life" and to me, preserving the British way of life is best attained by voting in tried and trusted parties.
If people think we're screwed, then we will just crawl into our shells and do absolutely nothing. We need hope.
It is early days though. I suspect many feel that 4 years is a long way in the future and if we're still in the same position in 2 years' time, when the election will be a lot closer, or even in one year's time, there will be a lot more urgency. At the moment people are perhaps a bit complacent, but I suspect that will change.
Also there are no significant anti-Reform protest groups, so unless you're the kind of person with "leader" qualities (and we're not all like that, let's be honest) there isn't a whole lot we can do right now other than talk to potential Reform voters to dissuade them (and I don't know any personally in any case). That's my own feeling, certainly.
Until there is a significant "anti" movement there isn't a lot we can do. But I suspect that "anti" movement will arise as the urgency of the situation increases.
I do think that, unlike Brexit where people did get complacent and thought Remain would gain more votes easily, a lot of us - right now - are genuinely frightened of a Reform win and this will only increase in the next four years. This is where I think the situation and the Brexit referendum differ.
Plus the Trump factor of course. The next election will presumably be just after Trump leaves power and there will be a sense of "thank God that's over" amongst many. After four years of Trump will we really want to bring in a cheap and nasty, imitation BritTrump here in the UK?
Also another unknown is the Tory factor. What if they get a leader which causes people to swing back to them? People thought the Tories were finished in the 2019 EU elections... and then along came Boris.
I do think there are plenty of strands of hope and it's not at all helpful to get into self-defeating pessimism this far out from the next election. For one thing the prospect of the country being screwed for most of the next 10 years does one's mental health no good at all.
I'm not that optimistic about the medium term future TBH. Labour might narrowly hold off Reform at the next GE but even if that happens we'll probably end up with some type of Reform-Conservative merger leading to a right wing gvt in 2034.
There's even an argument that someone like Jenrick is even worse than Farage on both foreign policy (Israel etc) and economically.
I'm not that optimistic about the medium term future TBH. Labour might narrowly hold off Reform at the next GE but even if that happens we'll probably end up with some type of Reform-Conservative merger leading to a right wing gvt in 2034.
There's even an argument that someone like Jenrick is even worse than Farage on both foreign policy (Israel etc) and economically.
I'm no fan of Jenrick at all, in fact I find him very annoying - but at least the Tories are the devil you know.
Following discussions on here, Jenrick comes across as someone who puts on a hard-right act to attempt to appeal to certain people, rather than a hard-right ideologue. He was a Remainer of all things originally, believe it or not.
I would honestly be relieved if we got Jenrick rather than Farage as PM next time, such is my fear regarding Reform. And I am no fan of Jenrick's at all, once again.
Though to be honest I can see the Tories going for Cleverly, who seems to be the catch-all "acceptable to all wings of the Tory party" candidate - or even bringing Boris back.
Just a question, you phrase that as if it's a near-certainty and there is very little we can do, even though the next election is likely four years away. Is this the case or have I misunderstood you and the right choices can still prevent it?
I think there are things that can happen (listed a, b and c in my last post) that can prevent it. But none of that is currently happening right now, or happening enough. So as of typing this right now, with Farage still the leader, I think it's unfortunately what we're currently heading towards.
Another thing that is going in Reform's favour at the moment is just how much they're being talked about, especially in the mainstream media and on social media. I see Reform related content on social media everywhere without even trying to look for it, but very little, for example, Lib-Dem content. This forum is an example. We're up to 26 pages now about Reform, nothing for Lib-Dems. Now imagine that kind of ratio of discussion levels replicated on other sites or social media and suddenly the visibility or spotlight of Reform is glaringly more obvious.
Imagine the current rise/fascination/coverage of Reform like this. 2 people walk into a shop and you're behind the counter.
One customer calmly walks in, gets what they needs, smiles to you and asks how you are, pays and leaves calmly and you've known them for years.
The other is a new customer to the shop. They speak really loudly and are in a very energetic mood. They're talking to anyone they can telling whatever they want to whoever will listen, they do a little dance or scream when they realise no one in the shop is giving them attention and then when they pay, they tell you that you did a great job before making a grand over the top exit.
Which person are you going to pay more attention to as they walk around the shop? Which person is going to get noticed more by the other customers in the shop? Which person is more likely to say or do something that gets their behaviour posted on social media?
In case anyone was wondering and didn't figure it out, the first customer is practically everyone else in politics. The new customer is Reform/Farage.
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