Redundant EMU's

[Emblematic]

The price of scrap metal has really crashed in the last few years so I can see a lot of stock being stored but most likely sitting around for a while. I am sure the 323s will find a home, maybe send them to the North east for the Morpeth and Durham work? Who knows. 313, 314, 315 and 317 I cant see any use for.

The thing about scrapping is that there are lots of costs before any of the scrap metal value can be realized (transport, dismantling, shredding and separation, environmental protection and safe disposal of wastes.) So much of the scrap value won't go to the ROSCO. If they can arrange storage at low cost, they have little capital at risk and there's always a chance that a future use can be found - that opportunity is lost when the decision to scrap is made. Scrap value won't really change significantly - it might even be worth waiting for the market to improve! Some organisations may have other priorities, TfL were aware that stock in their sidings getting vandalised gave a poor impression, and arranged for scrapping to be done discreetly. Eurostar also have their reasons.
Notoriously the aircraft carrier USS Forrestal was disposed for 1 cent US (the Navy paid that to the dismantler.)

 

[Wivenswold]

Wish I'd voted in Labour they wouldn't have cancelled all of the elctrification schemes if anything they would have expanded on electrification and put the railways back into public ownership.

There's always next time, we're due another national vote soon, it's been at several months now.

 

[northwichcat]

Wish I'd voted in Labour they wouldn't have cancelled all of the elctrification schemes if anything they would have expanded on electrification and put the railways back into public ownership.

Unfortunately, most people will believe them when they say they've electrified lines and nothing happened under Labour as most people will be unaware that the North West, Thames Valley and Great Western schemes were Labour government plans, while North TPE and Valley Lines were Conservative led Coalition government plans.

 

[47802]

Unfortunately, most people will believe them when they say they've electrified lines and nothing happened under Labour as most people will be unaware that the North West, Thames Valley and Great Western schemes were Labour government plans, while North TPE and Valley Lines were Conservative led Coalition government plans.

Yes and we had over 10 years of a Labour Government before that was announced, which was reviewed and continued by the Conservative led Coalition.

 

[jopsuk]

a bit wibble, but how much work would be needed to get the 379s to work seamlessly in multiple with 387s?

 

[northwichcat]

Yes and we had over 10 years of a Labour Government before that was announced, which was reviewed and continued by the Conservative led Coalition.

Well the WCML upgrade probably used up the entire rail infrastructure budget for at least half that time!

The electrification of local routes was plan B after they realised plan A of at least 200 new diesel vehicles would not be as easy as first thought and that Thameslink would result in a large number of redundant EMUs. I think the date of the next General Election and all the new trains already promised/delivered for other areas was part of the reason. Remember plan A for new diesels would have seen a smallish batch for FGW, when DfT had been trying to move towards more consistent fleets so following the same logic FGW would have got cascaded 158s from Northern with Northern getting more new DMUs.

 

[Wivenswold]

The original OP will possibly be influenced by political maneuverings too.

Now the South East is getting hundreds of new trains, there will be anger in the North and West every time its announced that a line is getting NSE cast offs. Less so where newer DMUs or DEMUs take over from Pacers but there will still be resentment.

I think we're entering a phase of renewal over the next 10 years from which anything built for British Rail will be lucky to survive.

 

[northwichcat]

The original OP will possibly be influenced by political maneuverings too.

Now the South East is getting hundreds of new trains, there will be anger in the North and West every time its announced that a line is getting NSE cast offs. Less so where newer DMUs or DEMUs take over from Pacers but there will still be resentment.

I think we're entering a phase of renewal over the next 10 years from which anything built for British Rail will be lucky to survive.

Note that Northern are getting more 150s, opposed to replacing existing ones. However, as they already have a large fleet of 150s I don't think most passengers would notice any more joining unless they enter service still in the old operator's livery.

 

[Jamesrob637]

I really can't see the 323s being scrapped. They have some particular features going for them, including a very high seating capacity for a 3x 23m train, plus good acceleration performance, and also I believe they have been retractioned recently. They also still have a modern feel, unlike something like a 319 which feels a little dated.

In an ideal world someone would be taking hold of this current mess, and perhaps making a few changes to franchise agreements where it would do some good. The ideal outcome is some further electrification, but with the current near-fiasco situation with recent schemes that simply isn't going to happen, and history shows storing trains for long periods tends not to have a good outcome.

323s have much going for them, and they seem to suit the Manchester suburban lines. However, overcrowding is becoming an issue in the peaks - many Manchester suburban lines need 4-6 car units nowadays peak time not 3. So if they get transferred from the West Midlands, would they be able to be doubled up, or at least train frequencies increased? One unit(s) could just do another Manchester-Stockport each hour calling at Heaton Chapel and Levenshulme for example. Another unit(s) could just do another Manchester-Manchester Airport once an hour, calling at Mauldeth Road, Burnage, East Didsbury, Gatley and Heald Green

 

[SpacePhoenix]

323s have much going for them, and they seem to suit the Manchester suburban lines. However, overcrowding is becoming an issue in the peaks - many Manchester suburban lines need 4-6 car units nowadays peak time not 3. So if they get transferred from the West Midlands, would they be able to be doubled up, or at least train frequencies increased? One unit(s) could just do another Manchester-Stockport each hour calling at Heaton Chapel and Levenshulme for example. Another unit(s) could just do another Manchester-Manchester Airport once an hour, calling at Mauldeth Road, Burnage, East Didsbury, Gatley and Heald Green

Would the Manchester suburban lines be suitable for 6 car Aventras to replace their 323s instead of just transferring some in from the West Midlands?

 

[6Gman]

323s have much going for them, and they seem to suit the Manchester suburban lines. However, overcrowding is becoming an issue in the peaks - many Manchester suburban lines need 4-6 car units nowadays peak time not 3. So if they get transferred from the West Midlands, would they be able to be doubled up, or at least train frequencies increased? One unit(s) could just do another Manchester-Stockport each hour calling at Heaton Chapel and Levenshulme for example. Another unit(s) could just do another Manchester-Manchester Airport once an hour, calling at Mauldeth Road, Burnage, East Didsbury, Gatley and Heald Green

I would respectfully suggest that the last thing Manchester - Stockport needs is another path taken up by a 3-car train!

 

[3141]

As I understand it, a key issue is how the DfT frames the Invitations to Tender for future re-franchisings. Currently, a lot of weight in the evaluation of bids is attached to quality. In fact, I've read that for the South Western franchise, Stagecoach offered a higher premium, but First/MTR scored higher because they proposed a completely new fleet to replace 455/456/458, plus the 442s for an additional fast Portsmouth service per hour. Now, anyone putting in a bid wants to win, and if they understand that new trains score more points than re-using existing ones displaced from somewhere else, then it won't matter if a ROSCO is offering an attractive low lease on class 360 or 379 - the bidder will go for something new.

 

[wls1]

Theres so much good trains that can be used on many routes that need them, just the DFT stopping progress to happen.

Even all 46 357/0s are going spare in 2024 according to the franchise agreement.

 

[MatthewRead]

Theres so much good trains that can be used on many routes that need them, just the DFT stopping progress to happen.

Even all 46 357/0s are going spare in 2024 according to the franchise agreement.

Didn't know that show me the source please.

 

[samuelmorris]

Wish I'd voted in Labour they wouldn't have cancelled all of the elctrification schemes if anything they would have expanded on electrification and put the railways back into public ownership.

Off-topic but no, I really don't think nationalisation is the answer. In my opinion government departments have done far more damage to the rail industry in the last few years than private enterprise.

Didn't know that show me the source please.

I imagine it's an interpretation of the bottom of page 136 of:
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/486697/essex-thameside.pdf

Very interesting, I didn't know that. Honestly, I'm not sure I see the point.

 

[sjoh]

a bit wibble, but how much work would be needed to get the 379s to work seamlessly in multiple with 387s?

I don't know the technicalities, but my general understanding is that it would be considerably more than a quick fix.

 

[43096]

Didn't know that show me the source please.

Try Googling for "c2c franchise agreement" and find it for yourself!

 

[Emblematic]

There's no requirement to replace the 357s. There is a requirement to add 68 new vehicles, in three tranches during the franchise, and a further requirement to ensure 184 vehicles meet the same key requirements by September 2024 (table 3 fourth row), which is close to franchise end. These could be new vehicles, but that's not a requirement, and it would be unlikely for a wholescale fleet replacement to be this far into the franchise.

94.1 The Franchisee shall:
(a) on or before 30 October 2017, enter into a contract to procure a fleet of
36 new rolling stock vehicles, this shall be known as “tranche 1”; and
(b) on or before 31 December 2019, make available 32 “tranche 1” new
vehicles for use on Passenger Services.
(c) on or before 30 October 2020, enter into a contract to procure a fleet of
16 new rolling stock vehicles, this shall be known as “tranche 2”; and
(d) on or before 30 October 2022, introduce the 16 “tranche 2” new vehicles
into Passenger Service.
(e) on or before 30 October 2022, enter into a contract to procure a fleet of
16 new rolling stock vehicles, this shall be known as “tranche 3”; and
(f) on or before 30 October 2024, introduce the 16 “tranche 3” new vehicles
into Passenger Service.
94.2 For the avoidance of doubt, the rolling stock referred to in paragraph 94.1 as:
(a) “tranche 1” is the rolling stock shown in the first row of Table 3
(Unspecified Additional Rolling Stock) of Schedule 1.7 (The Train Fleet);
(b) “tranche 2” is the rolling stock shown in the second row of Table 3 of
Schedule 1.7; and
(c) “tranche 3” is the rolling stock shown in the third row of Table 3 of
Schedule 1.7

 

[samuelmorris]

What's odd though is that as far as I'm aware the 357/0s already meet those requirements unless their MTIN is expected to be below 40k, which I'm not aware of being the case. The 2024 date is essentially the same as the lease expiry of the 357/0 fleet which is why I imagine some have interpreted it as replacement.

 

[Greybeard33]

I don't think we know the length of the Northern leasing deals for the 319s.
They came in dribs and drabs, and now we have the 769 conversion.
Most of the fleet is seemingly going to be parked.

There is no other practical solution for the start of electric working to Blackpool and Windermere (and probably Wigan), but I imagine Northern will be watching the options for later-model EMUs with interest.
I'm not sure there are enough 323s to replace Northern 319s, but some combination of more modern EMUs may become viable as the franchise progresses.
Northern seem to be locked into the 769 bi-mode solution though.
The 323s are unique, of course, without a manufacturer to support them.
The detailed West Midlands solution is not yet clear either.

According to the Northern Franchise Agreement, the lease expiry date for all 32 of the 319s/769s is 31 March 2025, whereas that for the 17 323s is 31 Dec 2018. However, there is an option to release any 5 of the 319s on or after 01 Feb 2020, which Arriva intends to exercise as soon as the replacement 331s have entered passenger service.

Arguably 323s are better suited to Northern's routes than 319s, and Porterbrook, which owns both fleets, might be amenable to a swap if the 323s would otherwise be parked. However, Northern's 319s are maintained in-house at Allerton, whereas maintenance of its 323s is contracted out to Alstom at Longsight. Clearly Arriva must be making a significant investment in 319 refurbishment and in traincrew and technician training on the 319s, and would incur additional costs from "switching horses" in mid-franchise.

The 769s could not be replaced by 323s unless/until Lostock to Wigan and Victoria to Stalybridge electrification is completed, and the "alternative fuel" trains for Windermere are in service.

 

[Emblematic]

Roger Ford's Informed Sources e-preview today is fairly pessimistic about the future for these older units:

While infrastructure costs have rocketed since privatisation, EMU costs have remained stable. In 1990, a state-of-the-art Class 323 with three phase traction cost £1.26 million per vehicle at today’s prices. Recent EMU orders have been averaging £1.2 million a vehicle for a much more highly-specified train.

At the same time, the cost of borrowing that £1.2 million has dived and the result has been a series of ‘mass extinctions’, as winning franchise bids have been based on replacing existing rolling stock with cheap new trains. This started with Greater Anglia. South Western followed, where new, new trains were even cheaper than new trains just being delivered. Now the same scenario is playing with the West Midlands replacement franchise, where Class 350s are to be supplanted.

Add in the start of deliveries by the long-running rolling stock mega-contracts for the Intercity Express Programme (IEP), Thameslink and Crossrail, and future prospects for the Rolling Stock Companies’ ex-BR fleets are pretty thin.

This is what the Tables are all about. And when I pulled all the new train contracts and the fleets they are replacing together in a single spread sheet, even I was surprised.

Coming on for 3000 ex-BR vehicles, could potentially be coming off lease by 2020. Add in the Southeastern Networkers, which are expected to be the next mass extinction when the replacement franchise is let at the end of next year, and the number is nearer 3,500.

But even trains ordered since privatisation are affected. These include the Greater Anglia Class 379 fleet, Class 707s, where SWT just managed to get two in service before the franchise terminated, and the West Midlands Class 350s already mentioned. In the latter case DfT is funding a £10 million upgrade to allow 110mile/h running.

 

[158756]

317s will all go to the scrapheap, can't see over 100 321s finding work either with the 323/350/360/379/707s being freed up as well and the lack of electrification

I don't think the 321s will find further use either.

If the 707s are reused south of the Thames, there's then 30 379s, 37 350s, 21? 365s and 43 323s available newer than the 321s.

Franchises up for renewal which might want an AC only EMU appear to be:

East Midlands (2019) - Corby, but have 387s been suggested?
Great Western (2020) - they won't want many, if any,
TSGN(2021) - unlikely to want many second hand EMUs either,
TPE(2023) - probably not after many straight EMUs,
Northern(2025) - maybe 319 replacement,
East Anglia(2025) -they're getting rid of the 379s,
Scotrail(2025) - might be after some.

So unless Greater Anglia's plans go wrong or one of the London TOCs needs more to cope with unexpectedly high growth, it looks like stock newer than the 321s will be waiting until 2025 at least, when the 323s will be over 30 years old and stock will have been rusting away for several years. The post privatization stock will likely find homes, but the 319s, 321s and maybe 323s I think have a future only as a diesel or bi-mode.

 

[MCR247]

If Network Rail aren't in any rush to upgrade the MML wires 379s might be better

 

[D365]

East Midlands (2019) - Corby, but have 387s been suggested?

Where would 387s come from? If any, there's only six coming spare, from c2c.

Great Western (2020) - they won't want many, if any,

If they need anything more [excluding possible battery conversions] it will be the above 387s.

TSGN(2021) - unlikely to want many second hand EMUs either,

Various possibilities for South London metro and South Coastway, but no set plans as of yet.

TPE(2023) - probably not after many straight EMUs,

Indeed.

Northern(2025) - maybe 319 replacement,

Indeed but again no known plans.

East Anglia(2025) -they're getting rid of the 379s,

As you later state, only if something goes vastly wrong.

Scotrail(2025) - might be after some.

Doubt it, they're planning new build for when Classes 318/320 need replacement.

 

[SpacePhoenix]

If what's currently LM were to ever take over the Croydon-Milton Keynes services from Southern, how many 350s would they need to cover the service, allowing for strengthening peak services?

 

[Bletchleyite]

If what's currently LM were to ever take over the Croydon-Milton Keynes services from Southern, how many 350s would they need to cover the service, allowing for strengthening peak services?

Depends if they revert to overcrowded 4-cars off peak or run 8 all day. The 5-car units Southern have are just about spot on off-peak.

It appears to be a 2 hour end to end including recovery time, roughly. So for an hourly service that's 4 diagrams.

 

[SpacePhoenix]

Depends if they revert to overcrowded 4-cars off peak or run 8 all day. The 5-car units Southern have are just about spot on off-peak.

It appears to be a 2 hour end to end including recovery time, roughly. So for an hourly service that's 4 diagrams.

Would 12 car trains provide needed extra capacity at peak times or would it be overkill compared with a 10 car train in the peak?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Would 12 car trains provide needed extra capacity at peak times or would it be overkill compared with a 10 car train in the peak?

In the peak they run 8-car sets which are pretty much spot-on, most people get a seat on the 0706 ex Bletchley and 1711 ex East Croydon (the busiest trains) with sometimes a few standees only for the middle bit. There are sometimes spare seats, don't think anyone sat opposite me today.

I don't think they could go to 10 or 12, platform 17 at Clapham Jn (extended to allow for 8) isn't long enough. With more Electrostars, an increase in frequency to half hourly on the Clapham Jn to Watford Jn section would probably be the best improvement.

I *think* the long term plan is 8-car all day, FWIW.

 

[43096]

In the peak they run 8-car sets which are pretty much spot-on, most people get a seat on the 0706 ex Bletchley and 1711 ex East Croydon (the busiest trains) with sometimes a few standees only for the middle bit. There are sometimes spare seats, don't think anyone sat opposite me today.

I don't think they could go to 10 or 12, platform 17 at Clapham Jn (extended to allow for 8) isn't long enough. With more Electrostars, an increase in frequency to half hourly on the Clapham Jn to Watford Jn section would probably be the best improvement.

I *think* the long term plan is 8-car all day, FWIW.

Think that is correct. The plan was 8-car with the 377/7s going into the 377/6 pool. It does seem a bit strange the 377/5s have gone to South Eastern (temporarily?) as Southern do actually need multi-system units. A pool of 38 such sets would help with diagramming and any future service expansion, like going half-hourly.

 

[IanXC]

TPE(2023) - probably not after many straight EMUs,
Northern(2025) - maybe 319 replacement,

Pending what, if any, electrification ends up forming part of the Transpennine Route Upgrade there is a possibility that these 2 many have a requirement for EMUs.

That said, TPE would have 802s and could swap 68s for 88s, so potentially only a handful required for 185s which would be operating under any potential wires.