Our new ticketing site is now live! Using either this or the original site (both powered by TrainSplit) helps support the running of the forum with every ticket purchase! Find out more and ask any questions/give us feedback in this thread!
Even if there was space on the graph, HT going hourly is a commercial no-no, the demand isn’t there. Far better to lengthen existing services when needed.
KX/Huntingdon/Peterborough/Lincoln/Market Rasen/Grimsby/Cleethorpes two hourly is the one to look at.
== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==
My suggestion is Oxford to Ashford International if Eurostar ever starts stopping there again. Calling at Didcot, Reading, Guildford, Dorking Deepdene, Redhill, Edenbridge, Tonbridge and Ashford International.
Could definitely go places other than Oxford:
- Birmingham feels unlikely considering HS2 will (eventually) be the best link to the Channel Tunnel
- Manchester you'd struggle with pathing
- Cardiff/Bristol might not have the demand + when OOC eventually gets built it'll likely be easiest to change there to get to St Pancras
- Southwest doesn't feel like there would be demand
I wonder about an OAO partially-commuter service, for example something like Victoria to Littlehampton via Dorking, calling Clapham-Balham-Sutton-Epsom-Dorking-Horsham-Arundel-Littlehampton. It probably wouldn't pass the abstraction test, although it's not like Southern is trying to provide a similar service. Obviously Sutton and Arundel Jnc are problem areas, but not insurmountable.
In these sorts of threads I usually suggest a "University Line" Swansea-Brighton OAO using 180s or the like, but that needs some serious infrastructure work on the East end to fit.
Victoria to Littlehampton via Dorking, calling Clapham-Balham-Sutton-Epsom-Dorking-Horsham-Arundel-Littlehampton. It probably wouldn't pass the abstraction test, although it's not like Southern is trying to provide a similar service.
Only if faster/more frequent trains wouldn't be more in demand than the current offering, surely? Southern doesn't seem to be interested in providing that, and for 1.5 days per week it is necessary to go back on yourself via Clapham or make an awkward change at Dorking because there are no services at all. The traffic situation on the A24/A29 and the interest of local groups is what makes me think there is more demand than is being catered for.
I will concede that this is probably not the sort of thing an OAO would go for, but if Southern won't...
Is that evidence for cross-Horsham travel demands between the Arun and Mole Valleys? How many sources of employment and entertainment on either leg justify longer distance commuting? The flow statistics for Billingshurst don't indicate much demand https://railalefan.co.uk/labs/flowstats/BIG/ towards the Mole Valley.
Only if faster/more frequent trains wouldn't be more in demand than the current offering, surely? Southern doesn't seem to be interested in providing that, and for 1.5 days per week it is necessary to go back on yourself via Clapham or make an awkward change at Dorking because there are no services at all. The traffic situation on the A24/A29 and the interest of local groups is what makes me think there is more demand than is being catered for.
I will concede that this is probably not the sort of thing an OAO would go for, but if Southern won't...
It's not particularly relevant to this thread, but I have wondered whether it might be worth making Dorking to Horsham a half-hourly, 7 days a week shuttle using a couple of 377/3s - the disadvantage of having to change trains at Dorking would be outweighed by the doubling in frequency and 7 days a week service, and it would probably result in a net saving of units for Southern as it stops 10-coach trains which have emptied out by Dorking having to continue to Horsham and back. I would still have the last service of the day (currently the 23:25 from Victoria) run through to Horsham to ensure nobody is left stranded.
== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==
Is that evidence for cross-Horsham travel demands between the Arun and Mole Valleys? How many sources of employment and entertainment on either leg justify longer distance commuting? The flow statistics for Billingshurst don't indicate much demand https://railalefan.co.uk/labs/flowstats/BIG/ towards the Mole Valley.
I'm not agreeing with the idea, but how can you automatically say there's not much demand just by looking at the current statistics. You have to look at the current service being provided too, and if you put Billingshurst to Dorking into a journey planner, it will come up with a 33 or 63 minute connection in both directions, so next to nobody will do that journey via rail simply for that reason, even if there is demand.
Is that evidence for cross-Horsham travel demands between the Arun and Mole Valleys? How many sources of employment and entertainment on either leg justify longer distance commuting?
I'm simply speculating, I don't have any hard evidence. Arundel is similar to Billingshurst in terms of current demand to Mole Valley, so perhaps the idea isn't so good after all. The A24 traffic is probably going to Worthing and surrounds, and A29 traffic towards Portsmouth etc. I would have suggested to Southampton instead of Littlehampton but if that was possible Southern will still run it.
In terms of commuting, that is reasonably well covered from all angles to London, except for painfully slow journey times from Dorking. Sutton and Epsom are relatively big towns in their own right, deserving decent connections to the South Coast, but I'm unsure if many long distance commuters would need that. I would wager the leisure market is there, but rather than an OAO it would be sufficient to run 7 days a week and improve connections at Horsham. I won't derail this thread on that point any further!
Perhaps rather than my specific idea it would be interesting to think about whether any commuter OAOs could ever be viable and if they'd be justified in breaking into monopolies such as the SWR or Southern metro networks? Working from home seems to be scaling back but services not returning to match. Obviously the question is where would you get trains if Southern couldn't get them, for example. I guess any such OAO would need enough trains, or to target a simple enough route, to provide a decent alternative service.
Perhaps the answer is what was said up thread: most viable suggestions have been made by actual potential operators!
== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==
It's not particularly relevant to this thread, but I have wondered whether it might be worth making Dorking to Horsham a half-hourly, 7 days a week shuttle using a couple of 377/3s - the disadvantage of having to change trains at Dorking would be outweighed by the doubling in frequency and 7 days a week service, and it would probably result in a net saving of units for Southern as it stops 10-coach trains which have emptied out by Dorking having to continue to Horsham and back. I would still have the last service of the day (currently the 23:25 from Victoria) run through to Horsham to ensure nobody is left stranded.
We have had a few conversations about the line lately in various threads (guilty, your honour), and there was a dedicated one (this one) which died off quickly. Perhaps we should move there?
I'm simply speculating, I don't have any hard evidence. Arundel is similar to Billingshurst in terms of current demand to Mole Valley, so perhaps the idea isn't so good after all. The A24 traffic is probably going to Worthing and surrounds, and A29 traffic towards Portsmouth etc. I would have suggested to Southampton instead of Littlehampton but if that was possible Southern will still run it.
In terms of commuting, that is reasonably well covered from all angles to London, except for painfully slow journey times from Dorking. Sutton and Epsom are relatively big towns in their own right, deserving decent connections to the South Coast, but I'm unsure if many long distance commuters would need that. I would wager the leisure market is there, but rather than an OAO it would be sufficient to run 7 days a week and improve connections at Horsham. I won't derail this thread on that point any further!
Perhaps rather than my specific idea it would be interesting to think about whether any commuter OAOs could ever be viable and if they'd be justified in breaking into monopolies such as the SWR or Southern metro networks? Working from home seems to be scaling back but services not returning to match. Obviously the question is where would you get trains if Southern couldn't get them, for example. I guess any such OAO would need enough trains, or to target a simple enough route, to provide a decent alternative service.
Perhaps the answer is what was said up thread: most viable suggestions have been made by actual potential operators!
== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==
We have had a few conversations about the line lately in various threads (guilty, your honour), and there was a dedicated one (this one) which died off quickly. Perhaps we should move there?
To be honest it'll be nice if they did a trial run of a shuttle service on a Sunday to see if the demand could exist. I think they like using between Dorking and Horsham for rolling stock testing on Sundays though
We are aware of an issue with emails from the Forum to Microsoft-based email accounts (hotmail/outlook/live.com email addresses). This is being looked into currently, thanks for your patience meanwhile.
