tbtc
Veteran Member
True, but set in context to nation as a whole (similar sample size) where there were only 1.5 Liberals to 1 Conservative, the magnitude of the BBC result was quite staggering. I wouldn't like to suggest the result was 100% accurate, which is why I suggest it's not entirely credible to believe the result, but a result like that does not suggest to me that the organisation is entirely reflecting national society.
As I said before, do you think that all news organisations entirely reflect national society? Should they? Are you suggesting that people should be hired on the basis of General Election results?
I get the impression that lots of the SNPs votes in Scottish elections are disenchanted labour/liberal voters who are voting SNP because of the generic social democratic programme they espouse rather than any feeling of wanting independance.
The problem also with that sort of liberal/conservative poll is that it is largely designed for the American system, where a liberal is basically a social democrat, whereas in the UK we can liberals who are social democrats and liberals who are almost anarcho-capitalist in there zeal about free markets.
I agree with your second point - "Liberal" in the UK means anything to the left of the Tories, which is a majority of the population, especially when you consider that there are a lot on the "left" who don't vote (the young) compared to the higher turnout in groups more likely to vote Conservative (Pensioners etc).
I saw a poll a while ago that suggested a very high number of SNP voters (around half?) didn't actually want Independence, but are voting SNP for other reasons.
Whilst that is a valid point, it doesn't adequately explain why UKIP's vote went from 1.5% in a General Election to about 18% in European one. Or that the BNP vote goes from 2% in a General to 7% in a European.
European elections only have about half the number of voters as Westminster ones do, which means a "freak" result is more likely.
However those who are anti-EU are more likely to vote in a Euro election (since they tend to feel a lot stronger than those comfortable with membership of the EU).
Really though, its an irrelevant vote (other than a "protest"), you might as well take by-election results as wholly representative.
FPTP doew seriously skew results and are not a reliable indicator for the nations political preferences (ironically). I might be stating the obvious but the Conservative vote is seriously under represented in the North and Inner Cities, because many people think there is no point in voting for them in many contituencies because they have more chance of seeing Lord Lucan riding Shergar than they are get a Conservatve MP. The same is true of course (although I would argue to a slightly lesser extent) for Labour in the South East.
...and similarly the Greens are very under-represented.
The Tories had the majority of Scottish seats in the 1950s IIRC, and the voting system hasn't changed since then.