Railway technology and the future

[broadgage]

I suspect that in 100 years, that the railway will be suprisingly similar to todays.

Railways are a mature technology and might not change that much.
After all the railway of 1913 would be recognisable to anyone from today, and worked in a broadly similar way.

In 100 years time I predict that most of the network will be electric, with battery multiple units in use on lightly used branches or particularly scenic routes.
A LIMITED return to steam for non electric routes, oil being far too costly.

Some new lines and some closures, but not many, with the network being very similar to todays.
Owing to rising energy costs I dont forsee any general substantial increases in speed, "de bottle necking" to improve average speeds certainly, but no general increase beyond 125MPH.

I forsee much longer trains to cater for rising passenger numbers, it being EVENTUALY realised that rebuilding stations for 24 car trains is cheaper than building new lines.
Increasing capacity will be even more important, as air transport will be almost extinct, as will long distance road transport.

On the heritage front, I forecast that Tornado will be the only presently existing steamer still in running order, but with at least 50 new ones having been built.
I expect at least two heritage lines to be electrified, in order to run heritage electric traction, and the odd IEP bi mode being run on diesel as a special and rare attraction due to fuel costs.

 

[Muzer]

I don't see a return to steam happening unless development fails on literally every other possible energy source. If and only if batteries don't improve and hydrogen and gas don't become viable (and others I've probably forgotten about) might I possibly expect to see it.

 

[Marvin]

I think it will be a broadly similar (if not enlarged) network to today, running exclusively on electric power generated by nuclear power stations. A few diesel locomotives will still be around to shunt yards etc.

Heritage lines will be mostly diesel-powered, due to the horrific price of coal and the difficulty of keeping centuries-old steam locomotives running. Also, by then even the youngest Class 37, 47 or 50 will be older than Bellerophon is now, making them genuine antiques only used on special occasions - the preservation workhorses will be locos and multiple units that haven't even been thought of yet.

 

[Muzer]

I think it will be a broadly similar (if not enlarged) network to today, running exclusively on electric power generated by nuclear power stations. A few diesel locomotives will still be around to shunt yards etc.

Hopefully nuclear fusion by then

Would coal be more expensive than diesel? Considering how much coal there is unused and untapped in the UK.

 

[L&Y Robert]

Increasing capacity will be even more important, as air transport will be almost extinct, as will long distance road transport.

What will we do with all the derelict motorways?
And third runways? - to say nothing of first and second ones.

 

[Muzer]

Turn them into railways

(Yes, I know )

 

[Ironside]

A full high speed network incorporating all Uk cities that has a population over 250,000.

Trains will be driverless, and able to split at low speeds to serve separate destinations. Computers will be able to communicate so as to be able to direct you through your journey and organise a driverless pod to be present at the end of the rail journey and take you to your final journey. Said computer network also sorts out the payments and detects unorthorised travellers identifies them and charges them a premium fair or co ordinates there arrest for failure to pay. Only human employees on the train are those making and serving food and drink.

Lower speed track is straightened for fast accellerating tram/train/pods.

Signalling is done by computers with humans maintaining and upgrading the software.

 

[broadgage]

What will we do with all the derelict motorways?
And third runways? - to say nothing of first and second ones.

The motorways will still be needed, but not by oil burning vehicles
Slow lane for cycles, light electric vehicles, riding horses, and horse drawn vehicles, fast lane for steam HGVS
Speed limit 20mph in slow lane, 50MPH in the fast lane.

Air transport will be much reduced and existing or presently proposed runways will be largely abandoned.

 

[Muzer]

Again, steam, really? Do you really think battery technology will have so little advancement that it's more efficient to go with steam for a road vehicle? I don't.

 

[dysonsphere]

Again, steam, really? Do you really think battery technology will have so little advancement that it's more efficient to go with steam for a road vehicle? I don't.

Battery technology or more properly storage of power needs a breakthrough in theory and right now there are no real clues. Room temp superconductors might help but they seem a way off right now.

 

[Muzer]

Yes - but I don't doubt that it would happen in the future. It's a relatively "simple" breakthrough in that the goals are clear and many people are working on it, and given how much batteries HAVE improved within the past few decades, I can see it happening. Certainly within a century I'd suspect it would have improved enough to be able to use it sanely for lorries, etc.


Even if not batteries, some other form of energy storage like hydrogen fuel cells (I'm less confident on this one).

 

[martybabes]

The entire rail network will be managed by one computer, one man and one dog.
The man is there to feed the dog - the dog is there to stop the man touching the computer.

 

[rebmcr]

How about recycled plastic sleepers to replace timber, I beleive the Americans are experimenting with that idea. The big questions would be what colour do we want and should the top surface have a wood grain pattern.

LOL of course it has to be wood grain.

Laughed so hard at this, it made my day! :¬D

 

[broadgage]

Again, steam, really? Do you really think battery technology will have so little advancement that it's more efficient to go with steam for a road vehicle? I don't.

I cant see a return to steam powered light road vehicles such as private cars or light vans.
I can certainly see a return to large or heavy vehicles being either directly steam powered, or consisting of trailers hauld by a steam powered tractor unit.
Battery technology has recently improved considerably, but that does mean that it will carry on improving.
The two main limits to the energy density of batteries are, how reactive are the active materials, and how densely can these materials be packed.
Many of todays batteries use lithium, one of the most reactive metals known, and packing the active materials more closely increases the risk of it blowing up, which lithium batteries are already somwhat liable too.
So I dont forsee much more improvement in batteries.

Coal is relatively plentiful and cheaper than oil.
Raising steam by coal burning is a a mature and well understood technology.
Shortages of oil, electricity, coal, or other fuel are entirely possible. A hauilier could easily keep a stock of coal against shortages, but they cant store electricity.

 

[eps200]

Electricity wont be in short supply because of nuclear.

Can't see maglev ever taking off properly unless someone figures out vac-trains and those would only be for super high speed routes, ground effect trains may work a concrete track and electric turbo props aren't inconceivable.

I imagine all signalling will be computer managed maxing out capacity, all lines electric at this point with speeds brought up to remove slow spots.

I could see air travel take a hit only retaining SABRE type engines for trans continental with the demise of cheap oil. This could make an Irish sea tunnel viable with ryan air out of the picture.

Driverless car tech displacing taxis and buses would have an impact not sure how this would effect the railway it could grow the catchment area for park and rides equally it could kill rural routes.

 

[The Ham]

Driverless car tech displacing taxis and buses would have an impact not sure how this would effect the railway it could grow the catchment area for park and rides equally it could kill rural routes.

Although with driverless car tech it would be more likely that the private motor car would become extent, or at the very least a lot lower with maybe one or two cars per household rather than three or four (look at the popularity of the Boris Bikes and car clubs as ways that vehicle use doesn't need vehicle ownership). It would also free up a lot of land for other useages and would encorage more none car trips for short journies.

For instance if you were going to the shops you'd walk one way and "drive" back with your shopping. Likewise people would be able to "drive" to the station when the weather was bad but would be able to walk and cycle the rest of the time.

Car parks would not be needed (either at all or nearly as much), so there would either be more builing on less land or there would be more spaces for public open space. Even in housing estates there would be no need for driveways to house two, three or even four cars (plus garages, altough they will be used as rooms or storage) so there would be more green space around houses.

Even roads could be smaller, as the small roads wouldn't need to be able to cope with parking and vehicles passing as much, proberbly with more space being set aside for cycles and even trams on roads. High streets could be freed of parking making the space usable by cafes. pedestrians, markets, etc.

It would also make it more likely that people would "car" share as it woudln't be their car and if you are going along way it keeps the costs down, but there would be no problem with your lift not being reliable as if they can't do a trip you just get a "car" yourself at only slightly more cost (i.e. if there's 2 of you for one trip it would be full cost rather than half cost) rather than needing to pay taxi costs.

With regards to the railways, there will be more HS lines as passenger numbers carry on climbing (although fairly slowly) as the number of private cars falls. With more international trains, including to Ireland and a second channel tunnel (possibly on a different route, Bornemouth - Cherbourg anyone? As it would provide a much needed capacity boast to the SWML and would avoid the need to travel in to or through London).

There would be a rail link to the Isle of Wight, replacing the hovercraft once fuel prices put it out of service and no one wanting to invest in a new ferry.

Guided busways will be long gone, having not even lasted 30 years until they were killed off because of the need for better rail links and/or by needing to be replaced by trams. Although as a historical footnote, none were proposed in or after the 2020's after the problems with those that were built in the late 20th and early 21st centery.

More cities would have undergound lines and all would have a much more extensive metro and/or tram network. Some would even start to rival or supass the network London had 50 years ago.

London would have a lot of trams as well as underground, overground and overhead rail networks. With some of the newer underground lines (or those whose tunnels needed replacing) being built to allow duplex trains due to the numbers needing to travel.

There would still be a few lines which were closed by Beeching, but they would mostly be lines that were needed to have been closed anyway. With few if any having heard of Beeching.

The first truely railway town has been built with all properties being withing 1km of a tram stop and most being within 500m.