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Railway competition

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yorksrob

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Indeed you could, but (ignoring abstraction issues) would it make money with a SVR to London of at least the Peterborough fare of £50 (OK you could charge a bit more but how much?). Bear in mind that there is very little intermediate traffic, so you are essentially running for 80 miles to tap into the Doncaster(and north)-London market where there are already 2 OA operators.

LNWR works as it does because the WCML upgrade went wrong, Virgin essentially withdrew from Trent Valley and a franchised service was required to give Nuneaton etc a tolerably good London service. And as a franchised service, they couldn't be stopped from undercutting Virgin, just like GN and Peterborough.
Full marks to Silverlink or whoever it was for spotting a business opportunity, but it would never have happened without the need to serve the TV stations.
The equivalent would be to hand Retford, Newark and Grantham over completely (or nearly completely) to GN and run a semifast with 387s (or...), calling at Huntingdon and St Neots or Biggleswade. And you'd have to go half-hourly as far as Newark, because that's what they get currently. I can see that being popular - not.

I'm not sure I agree entirely with that assertion. Stops like Grantham and Newark generate a decent amount of traffic in themselves.

If you had this as a semi-fast limited stop from Peterborough, it might have the added benefit of drawing some Peterborough passengers away from IC services.
 
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Bartsimho

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As someone who has travelled on the GN for half a century this sounds like a very bad dream.

In particular you seem to have completely forgotten about the Cambridge line trains.

The main constraints on ECML operation are at the southern end notably:
  • platform capacity at Kings Cross
  • the two track section at Welwyn
  • the two track section at Holme Fen
  • ECML<125mph trains need to be on the slow lines between Woolmer Green and Huntingdon
  • the complete absence of places to reverse trains between Welwyn and Peterborough
To run any new trains you have to kick out something else from both Kings Cross and the Welwyn 2 track section, before you even think about pathing north of Woolmer Green.
So it's 4tph from Cambridge to Kings Cross and 2tph Cambridge to Liverpool Street. How many paths are there over the Double Tracked sections? Looking at the current timetable it appears to be 14tph for both the distance services as well as the stoppers.

2tph Cambridge to Kings Cross (Stopping everywhere from Cambridge to Hitchin)
2tph Kings Lynn to Kings Cross (Semi-Fast)
2tph Edinburgh to Kings Cross
2tph Newcastle to Kings Cross
2tph Peterborough to Kings Cross (Stopper)
1tph Peterborough to Moorgate (Stopper)
1tp2h Lincoln to Kings Cross (Semi-Fast alternates to Kings Cross and Peterborough)
1tp2h Leeds to Kings Cross (Fast alternates to Kings Cross and Peterborough)
1tph Newcastle to Kings Cross (Semi-Fast)
1tph Peterborough to Brighton (Semi-Fast)

Have several more only going to Welwyn Garden City so before the Double Track Section.
 

telstarbox

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I’m sorry, but it really isn’t. It’s a bargain for nearly 200 miles in just under 2 hours. its comparable with the cost of driving in a small economical car - which is the main competition on this route - but much quicker.



any comparison is fair on an equitable basis (same day, same journey).

Your example is actually two weeks away. And yes you can get to Paris for about £40 (With a small bag, and getting yourself to/from Gatwick/Luton, Orly/CDG) on that day. However you can get to Manchester for £20 and take whatever size bag you can carry. (Avanti superfare).
Pre COVID I used to do London to Manchester a fair bit and never saw a quiet train - suggesting that the price was about right. The days of cheap parking in central Manchester are dying out as well so there's scope for the train market to grow.
 

Magdalia

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2tph Cambridge to Kings Cross (Stopping everywhere from Cambridge to Hitchin)
2tph Kings Lynn to Kings Cross (Semi-Fast)
2tph Edinburgh to Kings Cross
2tph Newcastle to Kings Cross
2tph Peterborough to Kings Cross (Stopper)
1tph Peterborough to Moorgate (Stopper)
1tp2h Lincoln to Kings Cross (Semi-Fast alternates to Kings Cross and Peterborough)
1tp2h Leeds to Kings Cross (Fast alternates to Kings Cross and Peterborough)
1tph Newcastle to Kings Cross (Semi-Fast)
1tph Peterborough to Brighton (Semi-Fast)
There is a lot wrong with that list. Clearly you are not very familiar with the ECML.

Off peak the Welwyn 2 track section goes roughly like this:

LNER 2tph KX-Scotland/Newcastle
LNER 2tph KX-Leeds
LNER 1tph KX-York/Lincoln
Open access 1-2tph KX-allsorts
GN 2tph KX-Kings Lynn/Ely
GN 2tph KX-Cambridge/Letchworth stoppers
TL 2tph Brighton-Cambridge
TL 2tph Horsham-Peterborough
ZZ 1-2tph freight, RTT, STP etc

In the peaks LNER and GN get extra platforms/paths at the expense of the open access operators and freight etc

Nothing from Moorgate goes through the Welwyn 2 track section.

So there are 10-12 tph in the terminal and 14-16 tph in the Welwyn 2 track section.

But the Cambridge/Letchworth stoppers effectively take 2 paths through the Welwyn 2 track section because they stop at Welwyn North. The procession of fast trains has to leave a big enough gap twice per hour to let the stopper through, and the stopper has to be on time so that it hits the gap.
 

TheBigD

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As someone who has travelled on the GN for half a century this sounds like a very bad dream.

In particular you seem to have completely forgotten about the Cambridge line trains.

The main constraints on ECML operation are at the southern end notably:
  • platform capacity at Kings Cross
  • the two track section at Welwyn
  • the two track section at Holme Fen
  • ECML<125mph trains need to be on the slow lines between Woolmer Green and Huntingdon
  • the complete absence of places to reverse trains between Welwyn and Peterborough
To run any new trains you have to kick out something else from both Kings Cross and the Welwyn 2 track section, before you even think about pathing north of Woolmer Green.

Perfectly possible to terminate at Huntingdon. Route is platform 3 to down fast, reverse, up fast, up slow to platform 2, all signalled moves.
NSE/WAGN used to do it every hour off peak in the 1990s when only 1 stopper went through to Peterborough.
Good luck pathing it though!
 

RobShipway

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Pre COVID I used to do London to Manchester a fair bit and never saw a quiet train - suggesting that the price was about right. The days of cheap parking in central Manchester are dying out as well so there's scope for the train market to grow.
Personally, I would say that it depends on where you are travelling too and whether there is connections by train, bus or taxi that can take you to your destination at a reasonable cost. If that cost is no different than paying the parking, then what have you saved?
 

Magdalia

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Perfectly possible to terminate at Huntingdon. Route is platform 3 to down fast, reverse, up fast, up slow to platform 2, all signalled moves.
NSE/WAGN used to do it every hour off peak in the 1990s when only 1 stopper went through to Peterborough.
Good luck pathing it though!
That was a move designed in the 1970s for 2 car DMUs, and much lower traffic on the ECML. I can't recall it being done with anything longer than 4 car trains, except in the period when the wires were energised to Huntingdon but not Peterborough. Doing that with a 12 car class 700 would block the fast lines for too long.
 

telstarbox

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Personally, I would say that it depends on where you are travelling too and whether there is connections by train, bus or taxi that can take you to your destination at a reasonable cost. If that cost is no different than paying the parking, then what have you saved?
Potentially time and productivity if you can work or relax on the train. We've done this one to death though.
 

30907

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I'm not sure I agree entirely with that assertion. Stops like Grantham and Newark generate a decent amount of traffic in themselves.
Yes, of course they do, which is why they get the service they do. But by "intermediate traffic" I meant flows between the intermediate stations, which are pretty small.
Of course that is probably the same on the Trent Valley (remembering when a bubble car 5 times a day sufficed?), but that is the principal London service for the likes of Nuneaton.
 

yorksrob

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Yes, of course they do, which is why they get the service they do. But by "intermediate traffic" I meant flows between the intermediate stations, which are pretty small.
Of course that is probably the same on the Trent Valley (remembering when a bubble car 5 times a day sufficed?), but that is the principal London service for the likes of Nuneaton.

I'm sure that this would be the principle London service for the likes of Biggleswade and Huntingdon.
 

61653 HTAFC

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Some of the issues though for rail, when compared to Air services certainly is seating comfort levels on long journey's as well as price which has been previously mentioned in this thread. With regards coaches well, the nearest comparison is probably Nat Ex as @zwk500 has said. Megabus is like the Ryanair of the coach industry, where they may offer reduced fares, but their seats are uncomfortable if you are travelling for more than an hour.
I'd say that depends on the route. Using Huddersfield as the example, I used Megabus several years ago to go to London from there. The southbound journey left at the unsociable time of 4am, but was a very comfortable double-deck coach which I was able to get a few hours sleep on. The routing was odd, going Huddersfield, Halifax, Bradford, Leeds, Meadowhall and London and arriving at around 0830. By comparison the National Express journey back to Huddersfield took six hours after a slow crawl through the suburbs of Sheffield from Chesterfield, and was on a rather tired coach that reminded me of the creaking wrecks we used to get on school trips.
 

zwk500

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I'd say that depends on the route. Using Huddersfield as the example, I used Megabus several years ago to go to London from there. The southbound journey left at the unsociable time of 4am, but was a very comfortable double-deck coach which I was able to get a few hours sleep on. The routing was odd, going Huddersfield, Halifax, Bradford, Leeds, Meadowhall and London and arriving at around 0830. By comparison the National Express journey back to Huddersfield took six hours after a slow crawl through the suburbs of Sheffield from Chesterfield, and was on a rather tired coach that reminded me of the creaking wrecks we used to get on school trips.
Sounds very much like Megabus are the Ryanair of the coach industry!
 

61653 HTAFC

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Sounds very much like Megabus are the Ryanair of the coach industry!
In some ways, sure... but by comparison NatEx were far worse!

The quality of vehicles used on their MegabusPlus runs to East Midlands Parkway for onward train connections were a good deal poorer admittedly, and more deserving of the "Ryanair of the Roads" tag.
 

zwk500

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In some ways, sure... but by comparison NatEx were far worse!

The quality of vehicles used on their MegabusPlus runs to East Midlands Parkway for onward train connections were a good deal poorer admittedly, and more deserving of the "Ryanair of the Roads" tag.
I've never got the coach anywhere (Stagecoach X5 excepted), but whenever I've flown with Ryanair I've never felt concerned over the condition of the plane. Basic definitely and the seats are hardly comfortable for my 6'1" frame but not unclean or dangerous.
 

61653 HTAFC

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I've never got the coach anywhere (Stagecoach X5 excepted), but whenever I've flown with Ryanair I've never felt concerned over the condition of the plane. Basic definitely and the seats are hardly comfortable for my 6'1" frame but not unclean or dangerous.
I just meant from a comfort perspective. Still head and shoulders above the 3+2 school bus that I had during the recent Batley blockade, mind!
 

JamesT

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I never understood why the aviation model wasn't applied to the railways. State ownership of the tracks and signalling, trade cooperation to draw up a timetable the fixed capacity of the network supports, and a wholly commercial side which takes care of sourcing and operating trains.

Train operators competitively bid for slots, which funds maintenance of the track and signals and ongoing improvements to continuously update capacity. These private companies then gamble that their skill in running a service that customers pay for at the fare box, covers their bid, investment and dividends. Private finance funds the companies in expectations of returns. Maintenance contracting and spot hire emerges organically.

Alliances facilitate interoperability and through ticketing, but companies aren't obliged to join if it conflicts with their business strategy. Nobody complains just like they don't object to this in aviation. This is distinct from passenger's basic rights, which remain a matter for the state to enforce.

The state ensures slots cannot be sat on, being either relinquished or temporarily leased if occasional or experimental users can offer a reasonable price. Socially necessary services in slots that attract no bids are provided either by a least charge auction or a universal tax on slots or tickets. Delay attribution is a thing, but it's a thing in air transport too. Industry insurance covers operate failure, just as it does in aviation, no fuss, no drama.

There's probably a black hole in the finances here somewhere, something that prevents the fare box covering the whole cost of the railway and thus gives private finance no confidence in financing operators, in which case people need to be told how and why it is that airlines can make money despite their own massive costs and limited markets, but trains can't.
As I understand it, something like that was one of the models proposed before privatisation. But I think the concern around operators not taking on the socially necessary services led towards the franchise model where those services are bundled with the profitable ones.
 

LYuen

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Most major intercity trains in the UK have natural competition by market segmentation.
e.g. Northern and TPE for cheaper or faster trans Pennine trains; Avanti, LNR and Chiltern for Birmingham to London as the lines were already built and demand stands
There is also ECML and WCML for London-Scotland services, as well as different Open Access TOCs on the ECML

So railway competition, or you may say options for different type of services for different price, does exist in railway in the UK
London-Manchester unfortunately is an exception.
It might be interesting to think about extending LNR's Euston-Crewe service into Manchester, or extending CrossCountry's Manchester-Reading service to Paddington (or relay train with GWR/Elizabeth Line)
 

Bartsimho

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Most major intercity trains in the UK have natural competition by market segmentation.
e.g. Northern and TPE for cheaper or faster trans Pennine trains; Avanti, LNR and Chiltern for Birmingham to London as the lines were already built and demand stands
There is also ECML and WCML for London-Scotland services, as well as different Open Access TOCs on the ECML

So railway competition, or you may say options for different type of services for different price, does exist in railway in the UK
London-Manchester unfortunately is an exception.
It might be interesting to think about extending LNR's Euston-Crewe service into Manchester, or extending CrossCountry's Manchester-Reading service to Paddington (or relay train with GWR/Elizabeth Line)
London-Bristol and South Wales: GWR Only
London-Southampton: SWR Only
London-Leicester, Derby, Nottingham and Sheffield: EMR Only
London-Manchester and Liverpool: Avanti West Coast Only
London-Ipswich and Norwich: Greater Anglia Only
 

JamesT

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London-Bristol and South Wales: GWR Only
Depends how indirect a route you want. :)
London-Southampton: SWR Only
Go via Reading, GWR & XC.
London-Leicester, Derby, Nottingham and Sheffield: EMR Only
Go via Birmingham you can avoid EMR. For Sheffield you could go LNER and Northern changing at Doncaster
London-Manchester and Liverpool: Avanti West Coast Only
Huh? The post you're replying to already mentions the alternative options for the WCML.
London-Ipswich and Norwich: Greater Anglia Only
This one I don't see an obvious alternative, but are these really major intercity destinations?
 

FlyingPotato

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London-Bristol and South Wales: GWR Only
London-Southampton: SWR Only
London-Leicester, Derby, Nottingham and Sheffield: EMR Only
London-Manchester and Liverpool: Avanti West Coast Only
London-Ipswich and Norwich: Greater Anglia Only
Doesn't southern do Southampton as well from London
 

JonathanH

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Doesn't southern do Southampton as well from London
Yes, but possibly not for much longer if an article in the current edition of Modern Railways is to be believed.

There is a suggestion that culling the western end of the London Victoria to Southampton service might yield savings to fund improvements to other West Coastway services and make the timetable more resilient. (The current services only have a turn round of ten minutes and therefore often get cut short.)
 

Magdalia

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This one I don't see an obvious alternative, but are these really major intercity destinations?
Ipswich hasn't had options since Anglia and Great Eastern were merged into Greater Anglia.

But Norwich has GN/EMR via Ely.

Norwich is an Inter City destination. In terms of distance it is very similar to Birmingham and Bristol.
 

johntea

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Grand Central could be considered the 'competitor' to LNER for the West Yorkshire to London passengers, ironically however these days they pretty much rely on LNER to carry their passengers on a daily basis when their units break down!

They do offer some great advance fares though, £15 - £30ish (added bonus for me is Pontefract Monkhill is literally up the road for me so it saves having to trek to Leeds or Wakefield too!) even at the last minute if you're prepared to be a bit flexible with timings compared to £40 - £60ish on LNER although they obviously run a lot more services so you have a lot more timings to pick from there!

Realistically though there aren't many cases these days where you'll be paying more than £60 even just hunting down an advance at the last minute for an off peak for the 200 mile or so journey which is probably about in line with the fuel for a car and then the parking on top, you can of course jump on a National Express for half that price but at a cost of over double the journey time so swings and roundabouts I guess!
 

yorksrob

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Grand Central could be considered the 'competitor' to LNER for the West Yorkshire to London passengers, ironically however these days they pretty much rely on LNER to carry their passengers on a daily basis when their units break down!

They do offer some great advance fares though, £15 - £30ish (added bonus for me is Pontefract Monkhill is literally up the road for me so it saves having to trek to Leeds or Wakefield too!) even at the last minute if you're prepared to be a bit flexible with timings compared to £40 - £60ish on LNER although they obviously run a lot more services so you have a lot more timings to pick from there!

Realistically though there aren't many cases these days where you'll be paying more than £60 even just hunting down an advance at the last minute for an off peak for the 200 mile or so journey which is probably about in line with the fuel for a car and then the parking on top, you can of course jump on a National Express for half that price but at a cost of over double the journey time so swings and roundabouts I guess!

GC have their plus points, but their AP's seem to be around five quid less than the LNER when I look at them.
 

FlyingPotato

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As well as that, in Lancaster I hardly see freight and at the station they have through tracks which freight normally uses and there are like 10 minute gaps in which no trains are calling at Lancaster
However tho, this is just a visual view
 

zwk500

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As well as that, in Lancaster I hardly see freight and at the station they have through tracks which freight normally uses and there are like 10 minute gaps in which no trains are calling at Lancaster
However tho, this is just a visual view
The Preston-Carlisle section is a complete timetabling exercise because you have big speed differentials, trains longer than some of the loops and a couple of branches.
It's easily possible that adding a stop at Lancaster breaks your path near Carlisle.
 

FlyingPotato

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The Preston-Carlisle section is a complete timetabling exercise because you have big speed differentials, trains longer than some of the loops and a couple of branches.
It's easily possible that adding a stop at Lancaster breaks your path near Carlisle.
Shame cause it'd be more fun to get home
And areas like Morecambe (who needs funding quite badly) would benefit from the increased train services nearby, same can be said for barrow to a lesser extent
 
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