I've closed down my ORR spreadsheet, so I'm running on memory from yesterday - comparing the latest Q4-Q3 with 2018Q4-2019Q3, franchised long distance real revenue is at 85%, regional at 97%, L&SE will be affected by Crossrail so won't be directly comparable. To me that set of figures doesn't look bad.
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Trainman40083
Established Member
What part, if any, would split ticketing have on perceived passenger numbers?
Passenger kilometres are up 3%, which is a measure not distorted by split ticketing. The reason why this is lower than the 4% for journeys could be due to more split ticketing, or it could simply be that the growth in shorter journeys has been stronger than average (which given recent growth in Eliz Line patronage is quite likely).
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It's the "second derivative" which is concerning. ie the rate at which that growth figure is falling. You can see that the revenue growth in the third quarter fell dramatically compared with previous quarters. (Far right column is growth on equivalent quarter one year previously).
If that is a genuine trend, as opposed to the impact of some one off event, then we might very soon be seeing negative growth figures, particularly given the current economic shock due to the war in the ME, which won't be in the latest figure shown. Looking into the sector figures, it's the LSE and Regional sectors where previous strong growth has suddenly fallen, and they are now broadly in line with the lower figures previously only seen in the IC sector.
Table 1211: Passenger revenue by sector, Great Britain
| Oct to Dec 2023 | 2,771 | 119.7% |
| Jan to Mar 2024 | 2,727 | 113.1% |
| Apr to Jun 2024 | 2,951 | 108.2% |
| Jul to Sep 2024 | 3,042 | 110.8% |
| Oct to Dec 2024 | 2,998 | 108.2% |
| Jan to Mar 2025 | 2,904 | 106.5% |
| Apr to Jun 2025 | 3,129 | 106.0% |
| Jul to Sep 2025 | 3,232 | 106.2% |
| Oct to Dec 2025 | 3,055 | 101.9% |
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The fares freeze will impact revenue growth year on year soon.
Will it have that much of an impact?
Anecdotally it appears as though many non regulated fares have increased significantly and presumably the LNER fares ‘trial’ has proven to be successful in terms of increasing revenue…?
On the other hand will the ‘fares freeze’ increase patronage and therefore, revenue…?
Not necessarily reflected in any figures. Currently the DLR is touting on every station platform (and doubtless to TfL and DfT) that they have 99.6% reliability for the last few months, despite the Tower Gateway branch having hardly run at weekends since Christmas, many other routes having had multiple weekend shutdowns, and the timetable next to the performance poster showing full 7-day services everywhere. It's all in what you choose to present and how. Not counting embarrassing weekend cancellations is just one of many spins. Some others are mentioned above.
Trainman40083
Established Member
Maybe they use data that excludes.all the dates they don't run. After all, does anyone audit the data, or just accept the spin (or is it called gaslighting these days)?
We are talking about total passenger revenue and traffic. I don’t get what relevance the accuracy of cancellation statistics is to that.
It's an example of what combination of the figures you choose to present. Above it was suggested that the Heathrow Express figures for traffic should not be compared to 2019, only to the previous year - thus masking the considerable hit its traffic took when the Liz Line opened.
We will see. Related, the off peak fares experiment in Scotland saw a notable drop in revenue.
But didn’t the off peak experiment lead to a big reduction in fares rather than a freeze?
Perhaps the recent large increase in petrol prices may make rail travel more attractive?
Adrian1980uk
Member
- Joined
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- 839
I don't think I'd be overly worried about the slow down in growth, given the economic environment and the likelihood that the timetabled trains where the growth is available are now probably getting full to the point that people are not going to choose the train.
There will be a point where large passenger growth is not available without large infrastructure/ train lengthening investment is required.
There will be a point where large passenger growth is not available without large infrastructure/ train lengthening investment is required.
Those in the Treasury and DfT tasked with looking at rail finances will probably disagree with you.
It depends on how elastic railway travel is seen ultimately as to whether a fares freeze will be detrimental, cost netural or positive.
Let's not forget the railway generally has a low modal share (outside major cities or between them), so if a fare freeze can attract people who otherwise would not travel by rail that is beneficial. If instead there's not a noticable (even a small % is OK) change in modal share and existing rail users are the only ones who benefit and would have travelled with a fares rise anyway, it's not so good.
If this petrol pump spike is sustained, that may influence some who have reasonable access to rail hubs.
Let's not forget the railway generally has a low modal share (outside major cities or between them), so if a fare freeze can attract people who otherwise would not travel by rail that is beneficial. If instead there's not a noticable (even a small % is OK) change in modal share and existing rail users are the only ones who benefit and would have travelled with a fares rise anyway, it's not so good.
If this petrol pump spike is sustained, that may influence some who have reasonable access to rail hubs.
The Treasury thinks that the railways are costing too much and have done since COVID, so to them it isn't about the number of users, the most important thing is the revenue that is coming in as it should be for everybody involved in the railway business as a whole. If the money isn't coming in, I would be very wary of what the future holds even when everything is GBR.
I will use an example of bus services that have been withdrawn, even though they were full of passengers. This was because the passngers were virtually all OAP pass holders and the re-imbursement that the bus company received from the local authority did not cover the cost of carrying the pass holders. Therefore the service was operating at a loss, so bus company couldn't keep running and it was withdrawn.
The fares freeze is only going to make things worse, so overcrowded services will be around for a while because there won't any the money for expansion.
A significant retail oil prices rise would depress overall GDP (and thus employment, free cash, etc) to an extent that would reduce rail travel in a way that would swamp any modal change.
dk1
Veteran Member
It’s interesting as to whether many motorists will switch to public transport if the war continues. As for leisure travel I can’t say I have noticed much in the way of any cutting back. Certainly amongst my friends & family they are not and I cannot say the price of petrol has even come up in conversation. Early days yet I suppose.
Snow1964
Established Member
Down here in West Country (and I am including Wiltshire, Somerset and Gloucestershire) has been big usage growth. However the railways are constrained by lack of diesel trains (the token numbers of 175s won't make a dent in the growth of over 30% in 3 years on some lines). So if trains remain crowded and noisy (because they are 34-40 years old), not likely to encourage a switch to public transport
But have noticed a rapid increase in electric cars near where I live, few miles SE of Bath. There are plenty of hills around here and electric cars handle them easily and quietly. With current fuel prices (taking from switch to electric vehicles thread), those using overnight electricity are now paying one fifteenth to one eighteenth of those with petrol/diesel cars for fuel. And for many that is £100-150 per month. At around £10,000 every 7 years in fuel savings (and lower servicing cost every year or two) it's more likely to switch people to quiet electric cars rather than diesel public transport.
Wallsendmag
Established Member
Massive growth in the North East. if you build it they will come.
The separation between the cost of travel and the act of travel with cars means that people underprice how much going by car costs, or even consider it to be free in their mind. Especially for those that do shorter journeys and don't fill up that often. Car insurance, service and MOT are annual costs that are easily forgotten and while people moan about petrol prices, it's hard to say how much an individual journey uses or has increased in price by (if you're even thinking in those terms). Even the spreadsheet pros find it hard to price car journeys.
As for myself, I was going to use the train yesterday exactly for this reason but the line I wanted was closed. Was surprised how busy the roads were with all the scaremongering about fuel costs and availability, and how much fuel-inefficient aggressive driving there was.
dk1
Veteran Member
I know it’s like everyone is expecting this to be a short term thing (I hope it is) and that it doesn’t matter. It is often the media that hypes things up about the cost of living and that people are struggling when for many it’s not the case and they just absorb it. I see no downturn in foreign holidays for example.
Nicholas Lewis
Established Member
TfW continues to set the pace with year on year comparison at an impressive 13% but five operators showed no growth at all:
TPE - maybe suffering from constant engineering works for TRU
AWC - disappointing as new 805/7's fully implemented with improved offering
XC - again has some stability and additional carriages. doesnt bode well to be given more stock by DfT
SE/SWR - surprised at this as a Southern/Thameslink user noticeable increase in commuter traffic even on a Monday now at my local station
TPE - maybe suffering from constant engineering works for TRU
AWC - disappointing as new 805/7's fully implemented with improved offering
XC - again has some stability and additional carriages. doesnt bode well to be given more stock by DfT
SE/SWR - surprised at this as a Southern/Thameslink user noticeable increase in commuter traffic even on a Monday now at my local station
We’re still at the stage where a lot of the things people are travelling for have already been planned/ arranged or even partly paid for so the hurdle for cancellation is quite high. Whether fewer medium term plans are currently being made or vague ideas put in the back burner remains to be seen. I will still be doing the long drives I’ve already got planned for May, but am less likely to plan others in the short to medium term that I don’t have to.
philosopher
Established Member
- Joined
- 23 Sep 2015
- Messages
- 1,513
Some Southeastern rail passengers will have shifted the Elizabeth Line, so this could explain some of the lower passenger numbers from Southeastern.
There are also regular weekends improvement works on the lines on a rotating basis, which may also explain the shortfall. Also note that Charing Cross and Waterloo East are closing later in the summer, which is going to dent on the numbers, I'm sure.
definitely
Most of the additional services only landed in December, so hopefully this feeds through next time
Their Sundays are taking a hammering
Central London employment is softening…
Snow1964
Established Member
If you compare passenger km to Oct-Dec (pre-pandemic) then get
I prefer to use passenger km, rather than passenger numbers because it is more realistic of how far people are carried.
TPE is 99.28% of 2019, so similar to 2019 levels
AWC is 89.49%, so still got to regain 10%, regardless of if travelling 1st or standard class. If they have lost business travellers, haven't managed to offset loss with commuters or leisure travellers. They do have the new 805/807, but lost their voyager fleet. Perhaps they are being too London Centric and not running trains from (example) Milton Keynes / West Midlands to Lake District which leisure travellers would like.
XC is 95.54% of 2019. Only 4.4% below pre pandemic, but compared to 6 years ago some of its weekend trains (especially Sundays) have become unreliable, often cancelled, and if they do run, sometimes with no catering, or part of train locked out. Could argue not running a full 7 day service, it's now more like 6 and a bit. If they restore the full Sunday service (and actually operate it) then ought to get some passengers back. Fleet wise lost some HSTs but gained a few voyagers, but the frequent crowding reports suggests supply and demand is out of kilter on some parts of their network.
SWR is 81.9% of 2019, it has some longer distance services, but the Autumn 2025 service on west of England line was poor due to land slips. But at 18% down that's suggests its commuters are not all working 4 days of less, so a proportion must be back at work 5 days. The overall numbers don't really show how much of an effect the arterio fleet have had, but maybe it will improve if they speed up the timings, some of which are still slower than LSWR electric timetable 110 years ago
SE is 74.79% of 2019, it probably lost a chunk near Abbey Wood to Elizabeth line. Clearly lost commuters doing 5 days week, but don't seem to have found a way to fill off peak trains to restore their numbers. Fleet wise, some 707s have replaced networkers, and some trains have had a refurb, but hasn't really been anything to wow the public, or make it easy to get to seaside from a suburban station without changing trains.
As mentioned TfW it is now 107.0% of 2019, so it's impressive one year growth is more a reflection of slow recovery in earlier years from covid, possibly due to south wales electrification disruption.
Nicholas Lewis
Established Member
All relevant and good to set wider context as one set of results isn't a trend. That said I was just noting how these operators have failed to grow year on year compared to others which all put in a 4% + growth. Even LNER which shot out the blocks and suffers plenty of competition put in a good showing.