Rail usage

[Peter Mugridge]

For a while, I had been a regular user of a website someone had built that used the ORR station pairs data and had built a Tableau dashboard that allowed you to select multiple stations, then calculated the most popular destination stations and showed you how many people (number and percentage) had travelled to each of them, and showed it all on a map ... and then I had to factory reset my laptop and lost a load of bookmarks in the process, and now I can't find the site again ... can anyone point me in the right direction, please and thank you?

I think it's linked in the forum somewhere from when it was first available - but I cannot think of a search term that would find it without wading through hundreds if irrelevant results...

 

[stevieinselby]

I think it's linked in the forum somewhere from when it was first available - but I cannot think of a search term that would find it without wading through hundreds if irrelevant results...

I'm pretty sure it will have been a link from this forum that first alerted me to the site, but I tried searching and couldn't find anything remotely relevant...

 

[izvor]

For a while, I had been a regular user of a website someone had built that used the ORR station pairs data and had built a Tableau dashboard that allowed you to select multiple stations, then calculated the most popular destination stations and showed you how many people (number and percentage) had travelled to each of them, and showed it all on a map ... and then I had to factory reset my laptop and lost a load of bookmarks in the process, and now I can't find the site again ... can anyone point me in the right direction, please and thank you?

This one?
https://www.railwaydata.co.uk/flows/gbr/

 

[dk1]

EMR will increase substantially when the 810s come on stream as they will create capacity, currently if there was demand, I don't see where usage can increase as most trains are fairly full to full.

It may take a little time but growth is there for the taking. Very positive times ahead.

 

[stevieinselby]

This one?
https://www.railwaydata.co.uk/flows/gbr/

That's a useful site, thanks, but it wasn't the one I was looking for!

 

[Trainman40083]

EMR will increase substantially when the 810s come on stream as they will create capacity, currently if there was demand, I don't see where usage can increase as most trains are fairly full to full.

Well, I would think the thought of a 5 car Class 222, full and standing would put a lot of people off using the train.. Some will use alternative routes, some coach,, some car, others just won't travel. I certainly haven't used the train to London for some time. Now more 10 car sets at Peak, and I might use them.

 

[Broseley man]

Some time ago a link was posted to a site with a map of each station. Click on the station and usage was displayed as a graph with a. sometimes odd, line of best fit.
I can't find it. Please can anyone help? Thanks.

 

[Horizon22]

Some time ago a link was posted to a site with a map of each station. Click on the station and usage was displayed as a graph with a. sometimes odd, line of best fit.
I can't find it. Please can anyone help? Thanks.

Here? https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/statistics/usage/estimates-of-station-usage

 

[pokemonsuper9]

Some time ago a link was posted to a site with a map of each station. Click on the station and usage was displayed as a graph with a. sometimes odd, line of best fit.
I can't find it. Please can anyone help? Thanks.

This one?

leaflet

 

[Broseley man]

Thanks Horizon22 but it is the link from pokemonsuper9 I was after.

Thanks very much. Anyone who hasn't seen and used it it is worth a look.

 

[absolutelymilk]

ORR have released the Q3 passenger stats. Passenger numbers are up 4% and passenger-km are up 3%

ORR Passenger rail usage

• A total of 466 million journeys were made by rail passengers in Great Britain in the latest quarter (October to December 2025). This is a 4% increase on the 446 million journeys in the same quarter in the previous year (October to December 2024).

 

[John R]

That’s a slower rate of increase than we have seen in recent quarters, which should be a concern to the industry, especially as revenue is only 2% higher.

 

[Snow1964]

ORR have released the Q3 passenger stats. Passenger numbers are up 4% and passenger-km are up 3%

ORR Passenger rail usage

ORR only shows a 1 year change, so taking data direct from table 1223 can compare Oct-Dec 2025 vs pre pandemic Oct-Dec 2019

sorted by growth
2019, 2025 passenger numbers and percent of 2019

Elizabeth line 14.35m, 67.10m, 467.58%
Hull trains 0.266m, 0.400m, 150.27%
London North Eastern 5.65m, 7.05m, 124.95%
East Midlands 6.89m, 8.60m, 124.72%
Grand Central 0.367m, 0.414m, 112.61%
Transport for Wales 8.49m, 9.08m, 107.00%
Merseyrail 8.33m, 8.34m, 100.22%
London Overground 48.72m, 48.64m, 99.83%
Transpennine Express 7.51m, 7.46m, 99.28%
Greater Anglia 22.50m, 22.28m, 99.00%
Cross Country 10.76m, 10.28m, 95.54%
Great Western 25.94m, 23.79m, 91.73%
Scotrail 26.76m, 24.08m, 89.99%
Avanti West coast 10.07m, 9.02m, 89.49%
West Midlands 22.21m, 19.05m, 89.82%
Northern 29.46m, 26.10m, 88.61%
Caledonian sleeper 0.076m, 0.065m 84.96%
Govia Thameslink 92.47m, 78.03m, 84.39%
South Western 52.69m, 43.16m, 81.90%
Chiltern 7.64m, 6.24m, 81.74%
C2C 12.31m, 9.70m, 78.83%
Heathrow Express 1.49m, 1.13m, 75.52%
South Eastern 47.27m, 35.36m, 74.79%

overall total Oct-Dec 2019 to Oct-Dec 2025 is 100.98%

But just to show how responsive or unresponsive some operators in the rail industry are here is the change in train km over same 6 years (in same order)

Elizabeth 254.01% which is 54% of passenger number change
Hull 98.46% which is only 66% of passenger number change
LNER 105.07% which is is just 84% of passenger number change
EMR 111.37 which is just 89% of passenger number change
GC 106.48% which is 95% of passenger number change
TfW 106.35% which is 99% of passenger number change
Mersey 95.25% which is 95% of passenger number change
LO 106.59% which is 107% of passenger number change
TPE 90.99% which is 92% of passenger number change
GA 92.39% which is 93% of passenger number change
XC 77.00% which is just 81% of passenger number change
GWR 100.48% which is 110% of passenger number change
Scot 90.52% which is 101% of passenger number change
AWC 89.74% which is 100% of passenger number change
WM 85.45% which is 95% of passenger number change
Northern 90.30% which is 102% of passenger number change
Cal 99.86% which is 118% of passenger number change
GTR 84.25% which is 100% of passenger number change
SWR 81.79% which is 100% of passenger number change
Chiltern 73.75% which is just 90% of passenger number change
C2C 93.94% which is 119% of passenger number change
HEX 99.39% which is 132% of passenger number change
SE 87.65% which is 117% of passenger number change

Would expect trains operated to be close to 100% of passenger number change. And a few operators have changed some of their fleet in 6 years which affects capacity, but most have same trains. I realise there is a few months lag in changing timetables too, but have to question those that don't seem to have reflected the new norm, or are still running heavily reduced covid era timetables when passenger numbers virtually back to normal

 

[Djgr]

ORR have released the Q3 passenger stats. Passenger numbers are up 4% and passenger-km are up 3%

ORR Passenger rail usage

I have only looked at this briefly.

Recently some figures were released and discussed on the forum that showed HEx journeys were increasing or at least holding steady.

These figures seem to show the decline continuing?

 

[John R]

I have only looked at this briefly.

Recently some figures were released and discussed on the forum that showed HEx journeys were increasing or at least holding steady.

These figures seem to show the decline continuing?

It's 1% up on Q3 in the previous year (the only meaningful comparison), so I don't see how it is a fall. Though I would regard it more as holding steady, and less encouraging (for HEx) than the increase seen last quarter.

 

[Djgr]

It's 1% up on Q3 in the previous year (the only meaningful comparison), so I don't see how it is a fall. Though I would regard it more as holding steady, and less encouraging (for HEx) than the increase seen last quarter.

Thanks

 

[Snow1964]

I have only looked at this briefly.

Recently some figures were released and discussed on the forum that showed HEx journeys were increasing or at least holding steady.

These figures seem to show the decline continuing?

It's 1% up on Q3 in the previous year (the only meaningful comparison), so I don't see how it is a fall. Though I would regard it more as holding steady, and less encouraging (for HEx) than the increase seen last quarter.

It has sort of stabilised at around 75% of its pre Covid numbers.

But that opens a different question, is it reasonable to continue to hoard 4 paths an hour on a line with capacity limitations, if only carrying 3/4 of the passengers, or should it be reduced to 3 an hour.

The usual comment is every 20 minutes is less attractive, or timetable won't allow 20 minute intervals (a fairly weak basis when some trains on line only operate hourly or two hourly, and are fitted in whatever timetable gaps are left, so could be swapped).

A big unknown is what happens when Old Oak Common opens, possibly some will only use it Heathrow-Old Oak, and the Old Oak-Paddington section will be used less.

 

[John R]

It has sort of stabilised at around 75% of its pre Covid numbers.

But that opens a different question, is it reasonable to continue to hoard 4 paths an hour on a line with capacity limitations, if only carrying 3/4 of the passengers, or should it be reduced to 3 an hour.

The usual comment is every 20 minutes is less attractive, or timetable won't allow 20 minute intervals (a fairly weak basis when some trains on line only operate hourly or two hourly, and are fitted in whatever timetable gaps are left, so could be swapped).

A big unknown is what happens when Old Oak Common opens, possibly some will only use it Heathrow-Old Oak, and the Old Oak-Paddington section will be used less.

Probably one for a different thread, as we risk digressing. I've been quite hawkish regarding HEx's future, particularly given the drop in passenger numbers, but I may be changing my mind. Why? Well, the last few journeys I've taken on the Liz Line to the airport have been pretty crowded and not a particularly pleasant experience, especially with baggage. Even if the Liz Line gets its extra 2tph to T5, I'm not sure that would make enough of a difference. Also, the HEx does offer (currently - things can always change) very competitive advance fares, especially given that the Liz Line fares to the airport seem to be quickly increasing.

 

[Horizon22]

ORR only shows a 1 year change, so taking data direct from table 1223 can compare Oct-Dec 2025 vs pre pandemic Oct-Dec 2019

sorted by growth
2019, 2025 passenger numbers and percent of 2019

Elizabeth line 14.35m, 67.10m, 467.58%
Hull trains 0.266m, 0.400m, 150.27%
London North Eastern 5.65m, 7.05m, 124.95%
East Midlands 6.89m, 8.60m, 124.72%
Grand Central 0.367m, 0.414m, 112.61%
Transport for Wales 8.49m, 9.08m, 107.00%
Merseyrail 8.33m, 8.34m, 100.22%
London Overground 48.72m, 48.64m, 99.83%
Transpennine Express 7.51m, 7.46m, 99.28%
Greater Anglia 22.50m, 22.28m, 99.00%
Cross Country 10.76m, 10.28m, 95.54%
Great Western 25.94m, 23.79m, 91.73%
Scotrail 26.76m, 24.08m, 89.99%
Avanti West coast 10.07m, 9.02m, 89.49%
West Midlands 22.21m, 19.05m, 89.82%
Northern 29.46m, 26.10m, 88.61%
Caledonian sleeper 0.076m, 0.065m 84.96%
Govia Thameslink 92.47m, 78.03m, 84.39%
South Western 52.69m, 43.16m, 81.90%
Chiltern 7.64m, 6.24m, 81.74%
C2C 12.31m, 9.70m, 78.83%
Heathrow Express 1.49m, 1.13m, 75.52%
South Eastern 47.27m, 35.36m, 74.79%

overall total Oct-Dec 2019 to Oct-Dec 2025 is 100.98%

But just to show how responsive or unresponsive some operators in the rail industry are here is the change in train km over same 6 years (in same order)

Elizabeth 254.01% which is 54% of passenger number change
Hull 98.46% which is only 66% of passenger number change
LNER 105.07% which is is just 84% of passenger number change
EMR 111.37 which is just 89% of passenger number change
GC 106.48% which is 95% of passenger number change
TfW 106.35% which is 99% of passenger number change
Mersey 95.25% which is 95% of passenger number change
LO 106.59% which is 107% of passenger number change
TPE 90.99% which is 92% of passenger number change
GA 92.39% which is 93% of passenger number change
XC 77.00% which is just 81% of passenger number change
GWR 100.48% which is 110% of passenger number change
Scot 90.52% which is 101% of passenger number change
AWC 89.74% which is 100% of passenger number change
WM 85.45% which is 95% of passenger number change
Northern 90.30% which is 102% of passenger number change
Cal 99.86% which is 118% of passenger number change
GTR 84.25% which is 100% of passenger number change
SWR 81.79% which is 100% of passenger number change
Chiltern 73.75% which is just 90% of passenger number change
C2C 93.94% which is 119% of passenger number change
HEX 99.39% which is 132% of passenger number change
SE 87.65% which is 117% of passenger number change

Would expect trains operated to be close to 100% of passenger number change. And a few operators have changed some of their fleet in 6 years which affects capacity, but most have same trains. I realise there is a few months lag in changing timetables too, but have to question those that don't seem to have reflected the new norm, or are still running heavily reduced covid era timetables when passenger numbers virtually back to normal

The worst is the Elizabeth line, an anomaly in this data because it’s not comparing like for like and the trains are meant to be busy, Hull Trains (who had rolling strikes) and XC which is well…XC. LNER and EMR are a bit lower too.

Ultimately this is yield maximisation as revenue and passenger numbers have not gone up in sync.

 

[absolutelymilk]

How are XC only running 77% of their 2019 train-km? I know the HSTs left, but weren't there 12 sets while they received 12 (admittedly slightly shorter) sets from Avanti?

 

[NCT]

How much are these single quarter figures affected by periodicity / holidays / closures etc? The Q3 vs Q3 growth is a bit pedestrian, but full-year annual growth (Q4-Q3 vs previous Q4-Q3) still looks pretty good?

 

[Trainman40083]

How are XC only running 77% of their 2019 train-km? I know the HSTs left, but weren't there 12 sets while they received 12 (admittedly slightly shorter) sets from Avanti?

I suspect it might reflect how some services are hourly rather than half hourly. I stopped using XC between Birmingham and Reading when it often became a 4 car unit, every hour, rather than two units per hour.. But I have seen double sets, which makes the journey a little better. Maybe there also a high number of trains which fail to run.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 20 Mar 2026 ==

Increases in passengers and train miles are one thing, but how does revenue compare, I wonder. You could return to pre COVID passenger numbers, yet costs and revenue received could be well different.

 

[Taunton]

It's 1% up on Q3 in the previous year (the only meaningful comparison), so I don't see how it is a fall. Though I would regard it more as holding steady, and less encouraging (for HEx) than the increase seen last quarter.

It's not a meaningful comparison for Heathrow Express, as the introduction of through Elizabeth trains shortly precedes that, and before that was Covid, so the most reasonable comparison, as businesses of all sorts do, is with 2019.

Like others here I'm also surprised at their figures being as high as they are, as I've paid attention to apparent loadings they have and these really seem to have dropped off a cliff. I wonder if they are somehow counting those who go, free, from T5 to T2/3, and then change to the Liz, in their passenger numbers. It's also noticeable that journeys outbound from Paddington are now way lighter loaded than those inbound, in no small part due to extensive marketing at the airport to overseas visitors and pretending they are the only rail service there.

 

[Bald Rick]

How much are these single quarter figures affected by periodicity / holidays / closures etc? The Q3 vs Q3 growth is a bit pedestrian, but full-year annual growth (Q4-Q3 vs previous Q4-Q3) still looks pretty good?

Quite a lot. Year on year is the best comparison. Q3 is usually the busiest by a good few %; last year it was 4% busier than Q4.

 

[Stephen42]

Would expect trains operated to be close to 100% of passenger number change. And a few operators have changed some of their fleet in 6 years which affects capacity, but most have same trains. I realise there is a few months lag in changing timetables too, but have to question those that don't seem to have reflected the new norm, or are still running heavily reduced covid era timetables when passenger numbers virtually back to normal

While at first that might seem a reasonable expectation, it's not a good idea in practice. 2019 is not some panacea where service provision lined up with demand. At peak times service provision will normally focus on demand. There's no point running extra trains for demand that fits within existing trains. Off peak though the majority of trains are not running at capacity. The financial case for extra services there is not does it track demand, but does the extra revenue outweigh the costs. Where that financial test isn't met those services might happen anyway if the public benefit outweighs the public subsidy to do so.

These numbers also ignore other factors. LNERs passenger seat km increase will be far higher than their train km increase. Removing 5% of a 4tph turn up and go service will be awkward, four randomly removed trains, a different timetable for those hours or reducing hours of operation? None of those seem ideal.

How much are these single quarter figures affected by periodicity / holidays / closures etc? The Q3 vs Q3 growth is a bit pedestrian, but full-year annual growth (Q4-Q3 vs previous Q4-Q3) still looks pretty good?

The averages per operator also smooth out a lot of variation for those factors on a line by line basis. London Overground is 15% lower on passenger vehicle kms despite a 1% drop on train kms. I'd suspect a large part is engineering works last year impacted shorter trains and this year longer ones rather than a substantial change in train lengths on any particular route.

 

[Horizon22]

How are XC only running 77% of their 2019 train-km? I know the HSTs left, but weren't there 12 sets while they received 12 (admittedly slightly shorter) sets from Avanti?

I wonder how the “locking out the rear train” is being calculated. Because it’s running but passengers can’t use it…

 

[dk1]

That’s a slower rate of increase than we have seen in recent quarters, which should be a concern to the industry, especially as revenue is only 2% higher.

I think any growth is encouraging in the current economical climate and not something to be unduly concerned about.

 

[absolutelymilk]

I think any growth is encouraging in the current economical climate and not something to be unduly concerned about.

Indeed, lower growth than previous years is probably to be expected as we've now seen the end of the immediate post-Covid bounceback and it's now more natural growth.

 

[Bald Rick]

I think any growth is encouraging in the current economical climate and not something to be unduly concerned about.

The DfTs budget for rail services is set with an assumed revenue growth rate. I will let others speculate as to whether the current growth rate reported here (and for the quarter about to finish) is ahead, in line, or behind that assumption.

 

[Horizon22]

The DfTs budget for rail services is set with an assumed revenue growth rate. I will let others speculate as to whether the current growth rate reported here (and for the wuarterabout to finish) is ahead, in line, or behind that assumption.

Or whether that "assumed" growth rate is reasonable!