Rail usage

[Bald Rick]

Re business travel. It is growing, and growing proportionally fastest of the three market segments (Business, Commuting, Leisure). However it is by far the smallest of the segments.

However business travel does not now correspond to first class travel. Those days have long gone. In my travels around the network, I see first class well filled on many routes, especially the ECML (try the 0700 / 0730 to Edinburgh on a Friday). But it appears to be predominantly leisure traffic, or at least people paying for tickets for themselves.

There are variations of course - northbound out of Euston early mornings most first class is fairly empty (not Saturdays though!) but southbound is well filled and that is a mix of business and leisure. Southbound evenings is busy though, and again that seems to be predominantly leisure.

One thing that has dropped off a cliff is first class season tickets. I heard about third hand (usual caveats apply) that when southeastern abolished first clsss, they had somewhere in the region of 25-30 first class season tickets for their whole business. I’d be surprised if WMT had that many when they did the same.

 

[778]

The ORR have stated the following on LinkedIn, which are some pretty decent figures and the first time that passengers numbers have exceeding the highest pre-Covid figure.

Revenue is also the highest and doing healithly, but still £0.3bn less than the equivalent pre-Covid figure. 50% of this is from "London and South East".



What I take from this is a larger increase in short trips being made, possibly within urban areas. Heathrow Express has had a reported big rise, and has a high revenue/km so may be part of the explanation.

Would you expect revenue to overtake pre covid levels in the net few years even with less journeys at peak times?

 

[Bald Rick]

Would you expect revenue to overtake pre covid levels in the net few years even with less journeys at peak times?

I’ll answer - yes.

There is however a rather substantial elephant in the room. And that is that industry costs have risen very substantially in the intervening 6 years. This is broadly down to three issues: staff costs, rolling stock leases and energy.

 

[Adrian1980uk]

Interesting to if the growth continues, we'll be back trying to work out how we get more trains on the existing infrastructure.

 

[Snow1964]

The latest quarterly ORR figures are here. (July-Sep 2025)

https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/media/i5ap5mxy/passenger-rail-usage-jul-sep-2025.pdf

Some operators have grown over 10% on year before (Figure1.1)

Sections 4 and 5 show change in train km and vehicle km, and looks like these bear little resemblance to the percentage changes in passenger numbers.
eg my local operator (GWR) had 6% increase in passengers, but only increased train km by only 1%

 

[alistairlees]

One thing that has dropped off a cliff is first class season tickets. I heard about third hand (usual caveats apply) that when southeastern abolished first clsss, they had somewhere in the region of 25-30 first class season tickets for their whole business. I’d be surprised if WMT had that many when they did the same.

These were annual 1st class season tickets. It did not include weekly or monthly or custom ones.

In any case: did the ‘demand’ drop? Or did the TOC offer such a consistently worsening product (when compared with standard class), at an ever-widening price differential, that customers simply voted with their feet and stopped buying 1st class products?

 

[hwl]

I heard about third hand (usual caveats apply) that when SouthEastern abolished first class, they had somewhere in the region of 25-30 first class season tickets for their whole business.

When the BoE governor doesn't even have one you know times have changed...

 

[Bald Rick]

These were annual 1st class season tickets. It did not include weekly or monthly or custom ones.

Apologies yes that’s right, I should have made that clear.

In any case: did the ‘demand’ drop? Or did the TOC offer such a consistently worsening product (when compared with standard class), at an ever-widening price differential, that customers simply voted with their feet and stopped buying 1st class products?

Well that I don’t know, but certainly the fall in first class season tickets was not limited to Southeastern. Also I think it’s fair to say that a significant majority of those in (official) first class on Thameslink aren’t buying first class products in the first place.

 

[Kite159]

The latest quarterly ORR figures are here. (July-Sep 2025)

https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/media/i5ap5mxy/passenger-rail-usage-jul-sep-2025.pdf

Some operators have grown over 10% on year before (Figure1.1)

Sections 4 and 5 show change in train km and vehicle km, and looks like these bear little resemblance to the percentage changes in passenger numbers.
eg my local operator (GWR) had 6% increase in passengers, but only increased train km by only 1%

The main issue is using just passenger numbers is the increased use of split tickets, especially when Trainline and other apps do it.

Afterall if someone travelling A to B gets issued 2 (or more) tickets they will count in the ORR stats as 2 (or more) passengers rather than just 1.

 

[Snow1964]

The main issue is using just passenger numbers is the increased use of split tickets, especially when Trainline and other apps do it.

Afterall if someone travelling A to B gets issued 2 (or more) tickets they will count in the ORR stats as 2 (or more) passengers rather than just 1.

But isn't that what figure 2.2 is for.
Shows percent change in passenger Km, and percent change in km per journey

7 operators have increased km per journey, so travelling further, which is opposite effect to having 2 shorter tickets because they have been split.

 

[The exile]

Interesting to if the growth continues, we'll be back trying to work out how we get more trains on the existing infrastructure.

Given that that question mostly concerns a few critical pinch points, aren’t we basically there now?

 

[Trainman40083]

These were annual 1st class season tickets. It did not include weekly or monthly or custom ones.

In any case: did the ‘demand’ drop? Or did the TOC offer such a consistently worsening product (when compared with standard class), at an ever-widening price differential, that customers simply voted with their feet and stopped buying 1st class products?

Your last paragraph is brutal, but fair . Shut first class lounges, poor food offering, poor WiFi , dodgy and unreliable seat reservations, quite work space invaded by passengers on Seatfrog etc... or just risking it with a standard class ticket. You do have to wonder why anyone would travel first class, if you can't eat/work on the train. Then you have "you can't use our first class lounges, cos your ticket is with a different operator". Maybe GBR will sort things out

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 30 Jan 2026 ==

Given that that question mostly concerns a few critical pinch points, aren’t we basically there now?

Wasn't the solution HS2 and NPR, before the situation becomes critical?

 

[John R]

Would you expect revenue to overtake pre covid levels in the net few years even with less journeys at peak times?

Revenue is currently at 92% of pre-COVID volumes and growing at around 6% pa, so I would expect the level to match pre-COVID in around 18 months.

The split is:-

Long distance: 86%
LSE: 95%
Regional: 93%
Open Access: 100%

But as someone else noted, what are costs like compared with pre-COVID?

 

[Trainman40083]

Revenue is currently at 92% of pre-COVID volumes and growing at around 6% pa, so I would expect the level to match pre-COVID in around 18 months.

The split is:-

Long distance: 86%
LSE: 95%
Regional: 93%
Open Access: 100%

But as someone else noted, what are costs like compared with pre-COVID?

Well if it is anything like the buses, probably about 140%

 

[slowroad]

Revenue is currently at 92% of pre-COVID volumes and growing at around 6% pa, so I would expect the level to match pre-COVID in around 18 months.

The split is:-

Long distance: 86%
LSE: 95%
Regional: 93%
Open Access: 100%

But as someone else noted, what are costs like compared with pre-COVID?

Is that in cash or real terms?

 

[John R]

Is that in cash or real terms?

Real terms. All the ORR figures are adjusted for inflation.

 

[Adrian1980uk]

Given that that question mostly concerns a few critical pinch points, aren’t we basically there now?

I agree we basically are there now as we already know WCML/ECML/WAML and GEML are more or less at capacity but I would say they are coping mostly with existing services without excessive overcrowding but my point is for how long. Cross country/EMR is a rolling stock issue as opposed service frequency so is easier to resolve if the will is there.

 

[The exile]

Sections 4 and 5 show change in train km and vehicle km, and looks like these bear little resemblance to the percentage changes in passenger numbers.
eg my local operator (GWR) had 6% increase in passengers, but only increased train km by only 1%

There is bound to be a "lag" - particularly where there are service improvements that involve increasing train km (as opposed to a real "reopening"). Focussing on a very specific bit of GWR operation, the stopping service between Westbury and Gloucester was doubled a few years ago. The effect that had on train kms happened "in one go" [and of course no longer shows up in the increase in train kms for this / last year] - but the growth in passenger kms will (hopefully) continue for several years. The same thing is presumably about to happen in Cornwall.

 

[stevieinselby]

For a while, I had been a regular user of a website someone had built that used the ORR station pairs data and had built a Tableau dashboard that allowed you to select multiple stations, then calculated the most popular destination stations and showed you how many people (number and percentage) had travelled to each of them, and showed it all on a map ... and then I had to factory reset my laptop and lost a load of bookmarks in the process, and now I can't find the site again ... can anyone point me in the right direction, please and thank you?

 

[Russel]

The latest quarterly ORR figures are here. (July-Sep 2025)

https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/media/i5ap5mxy/passenger-rail-usage-jul-sep-2025.pdf

Some operators have grown over 10% on year before (Figure1.1)

Sections 4 and 5 show change in train km and vehicle km, and looks like these bear little resemblance to the percentage changes in passenger numbers.
eg my local operator (GWR) had 6% increase in passengers, but only increased train km by only 1%

Interesting to see TPE growth is -0.5%, especially compared to Northerns 10% growth.

 

[dk1]

Interesting to see TPE growth is -0.5%, especially compared to Northerns 10% growth.

I did wonder that too but is any of this down to the TP upgrade works?

 

[Russel]

I did wonder that too but is any of this down to the TP upgrade works?

That's a possibility I guess.

I expected EMR to be higher than 2% growth as well.

 

[dk1]

That's a possibility I guess.

I expected EMR to be higher than 2% growth as well.

It seems the obvious answer. Passenger growth will come roaring back as works complete and an improved reliable service resumes.

 

[pokemonsuper9]

Interesting to see TPE growth is -0.5%, especially compared to Northerns 10% growth.

Worth noting, although the impact is probably quite minor, that the 1 per 2 hour Leeds - Huddersfield stopping service by TPE (matched in the other hour by Northern) has been completely replaced by a 1tph Northern service going Leeds - Bradford.

 

[Bald Rick]

I did wonder that too but is any of this down to the TP upgrade works?

engineering works - don’t forget the Huddersfield block was on for a third of the quarter reported on.

That's a possibility I guess.

I expected EMR to be higher than 2% growth as well.

Also enginering works

 

[dk1]

engineering works - don’t forget the Huddersfield block was on for a third of the quarter reported on.



Also enginering works

Cheers!!

 

[Adrian1980uk]

It seems the obvious answer. Passenger growth will come roaring back as works complete and an improved reliable service resumes.

EMR will increase substantially when the 810s come on stream as they will create capacity, currently if there was demand, I don't see where usage can increase as most trains are fairly full to full.

 

[Russel]

Also enginering works

Where on the EMR network has been effected by engineering works? For a TOC so close to me, I don't actually pay that much attention to them!

 

[Bald Rick]

Several closures of the MML to finish the electrification / re-electrification.

 

[Russel]

Several closures of the MML to finish the electrification / re-electrification.

Thanks